SlideShare a Scribd company logo
HOW TO LIE (TO YOURSELF)
WITH SAAS STATISTICS
JOSH STEIN
Partner
DFJ
@dfjjosh
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics
Josh Stein
Partner
DFJ
@dfjjosh
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
*
*
*
*
*
Series A Lead
*
*
LTV > CAC =
CAC > LTV =
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
The well-chosen “average”
Mr. Stingy, I have
heard that you
pay your
employees very
poorly.
That is an
evil lie. The
average
salary in my
company is
$91,000
per year.
The median
salary is
$80,000 per
year. Your
accusations are
unreasonable.
Sounds good,
Mr. Stingy,
but…
The Salary Scale in
Mr. Stingy’s Company
Mr Stingy: $300,000
Mrs. Stingy: $120,000
Accountant: $80,000
Secretary 1: $80,000
Clerk 1: $20,000
Clerk 2: $20,000
Clerk 3: $20,000
Semi-attached figures
Cigarettes are not harmful
to your health
The smoke is filtered; and, your
dentist recommends Viceroys
The claim and the proof are unrelated (semi-attached)
Claim Proof
Interest Rates Interest Rates
3.154%
3.152%
3.150%
3.148%
3.146%
3.144%
3.142%
3.140%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Same Data, Different Y-Axis
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
Gun deaths in Florida
Number of murders committed using firearms
2005
Florida
enacted
its ‘Stand Your
Ground’ law
873
721
2005
Florida
its ‘Stand Your
Ground’ law
721
873
Gun deaths in Florida
Number of murders committed using firearms
Fool Yourself
SaaS
Overreliance on LTV
Pitfall #1
LTV =
ARPA x Gross Margin %
Customer Churn Rate
1% Higher Churn Means LTV Cut in Half!
$M
$1M
$2M
$3M
1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
LTV
Churn Rate
*ARPA = $25,000
GM = 90%
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
LTV =
ARPA x Gross Margin %
Customer Churn Rate
What about ?
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
Working Capital as a Function
of Payback Period
Payback Period Impact
of Growth
Months to Repay CAC Months to Payback
26%
20%
17%
15%
13%
3 6 9 12
15
3 6 9 12
15
0.9
2.6
5
7.8
10.9
9
6
3
0
$M
20%
10%
0%
CMGR
TURNOVER is VANITY
PROFIT is SANITY
but
CASH
is KING
Sub $100M ARR? Growing quickly?
Use CAC Payback
Bulls*ht Pipeline
Pitfall #2
Unqualified
Unqualified
Pipeline
Pipeline
Pipeline
Forecast
Forecast
Signed
Pipeline Stage
Status
Percentage
Complete
1. Discovery
Prospect Identified
2. Pre-Qualification
Initial Contact Made
3. Qualification
Opportunity Assessed
4. Solution Design
Complete Solution Defined
5. Evaluation
Active Solution Evaluation
6. Decision
Presented to Decision Maker
7. Negotiation
Pricing Proposal Presented
8. Closed
Revenue Recognition
100%
0%
10%
25%
40%
60%
75%
90%
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
AppendixQ1! Q2. Q3? Q4??
Appendix
Not Adapting as you Scale
Pitfall #3
$10M  $100M
!=
10 x $1M  $10M
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
OUTBOUNDINBOUND
VS
Difference in Buying Process
Enterprise Sales Process SMB Sales Process
Meeting
Demo
Technicals
Commercials
PUC/Closure
Demo sign-up
Email nurturing
Site revisits, key pages
Adding key members
Closure
v
s
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
Metric complexity
Qualitative Quantitative
CompanyStage
Public
Companies
Growth Stage
Companies
Early Stage
Companies
Super
Early Stage
Companies
Qualitative
Feedback
Customer
Engagement
Website Visits,
Leads, &
Conversions
Bookings
Monthly & Annual
Recurring Revenue
Gross Churn
Customer Count
Up-front
Invoicing
Cash
Avg. Revenue
per Account
Customer
Acquisition
Cost
COGS
LTV:CAC Ratio
Customer
Lifetime Value
Net Churn
Gross Margin
Cohort Analysis
Expenses
Segment &
Exploratory Analysis
Market Penetration
Deferred
Revenue
EBITDA
Forecasted
Sales & Quota
YoY, MoM Customers
& Revenue Growth
Up-sell, Cross-sell
and Down-sell
Leading
Lagging
Influence
future
performance
Analyze
past
performance
KEEP
CALM
and
TRY NEW
THINGS
Watch the data but
keep your eyes on
the road
How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ
josh@threshold.vc
THANK YOU

More Related Content

PPTX
The Mendoza Line for SaaS Growth -- How to Remain on Track for VC Dollars And...
PPTX
Less is More: How to Make Your Funding Go Further with Market Focus from Main...
PPTX
Who Knew? The Mismatch Between How VCs and Entrepreneurs Think About What It ...
PPTX
SaaS Metrics Masterclass: What Key Business Metrics, Pricing Strategies, and ...
PDF
"What is Different This Time Around" at SaaStr Annual 2016
PPTX
Top 10 Learnings about Free Trials with Tomasz Tunguz
PPTX
[PREMONEY 2014] Institutional Venture Partners>> Jules Maltz, "SaaS Money Met...
PDF
Metrics for SaaS
The Mendoza Line for SaaS Growth -- How to Remain on Track for VC Dollars And...
Less is More: How to Make Your Funding Go Further with Market Focus from Main...
Who Knew? The Mismatch Between How VCs and Entrepreneurs Think About What It ...
SaaS Metrics Masterclass: What Key Business Metrics, Pricing Strategies, and ...
"What is Different This Time Around" at SaaStr Annual 2016
Top 10 Learnings about Free Trials with Tomasz Tunguz
[PREMONEY 2014] Institutional Venture Partners>> Jules Maltz, "SaaS Money Met...
Metrics for SaaS

What's hot (20)

PPTX
State of the Cloud 2019 from Bessemer Venture Partners
PPTX
Go Big or Get Rich: Liquidity Alternatives at $3M+ ARR with Turn/River Capital
PPT
Benchmarking Your SaaS Start-Up with Emergence Capital, Storm Ventures, Talkd...
PPTX
"Numbers That Actually Matter For Founders"
PDF
"From Day 0 to IPO: What Went to Plan, What Most Certainly Didn't" at SaaStr ...
PDF
Wildly Profitable Events
PDF
Churn and what it says about product/market fit
PPTX
Funding options For Growing Technology Compaines
PPTX
The Key Drivers for SaaS Success
PPTX
Why the Most Important Metric in SaaS is Misleading
PDF
Growth Fracking for 2017 - Suneet Bhatt at SaaSFest 2016
PPTX
David Skok's, SMASH Summit NYC
PPT
Zapmeals: Sample Startup Pitch Deck (from SuperNova 2007)
PDF
How SaaStr Built an Energized Community of Evangelists From Scratch
PPTX
The Latest, State-of-the-Art in Building a World Class Outbound Team
PPTX
David apple typeform retention story - saa stock (1)
PDF
10 Practical Tips for early-stage SaaS Entrepreneurs
PPT
SaaStr at Dreamforce '14: Benchmarking Your Start-Up: How Am I Doing -- Rea...
PDF
SaaStr 2016 State of VC Market
PPTX
The key SaaS metrics that matter to smb owners
State of the Cloud 2019 from Bessemer Venture Partners
Go Big or Get Rich: Liquidity Alternatives at $3M+ ARR with Turn/River Capital
Benchmarking Your SaaS Start-Up with Emergence Capital, Storm Ventures, Talkd...
"Numbers That Actually Matter For Founders"
"From Day 0 to IPO: What Went to Plan, What Most Certainly Didn't" at SaaStr ...
Wildly Profitable Events
Churn and what it says about product/market fit
Funding options For Growing Technology Compaines
The Key Drivers for SaaS Success
Why the Most Important Metric in SaaS is Misleading
Growth Fracking for 2017 - Suneet Bhatt at SaaSFest 2016
David Skok's, SMASH Summit NYC
Zapmeals: Sample Startup Pitch Deck (from SuperNova 2007)
How SaaStr Built an Energized Community of Evangelists From Scratch
The Latest, State-of-the-Art in Building a World Class Outbound Team
David apple typeform retention story - saa stock (1)
10 Practical Tips for early-stage SaaS Entrepreneurs
SaaStr at Dreamforce '14: Benchmarking Your Start-Up: How Am I Doing -- Rea...
SaaStr 2016 State of VC Market
The key SaaS metrics that matter to smb owners
Ad

Similar to How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ (20)

PDF
How to Maximize Discount Capture
PDF
19. saa s kp is and profitability analysis (deb sahoo)
PPTX
The SaaS business model and metrics
PDF
Most critical SaaS metrics everybody should track
PDF
Most critical SaaS metrics everybody should track
PDF
R&D Tax Credits Presentation by Steve Ragow
PDF
Stock Pitch For Mailing Shipping Services PowerPoint Presentation PPT Slide T...
PDF
Startup Valuation: 5 Methods
PDF
Metro Detroit Real Estate Investment
PDF
Business and Data Analytics Collaborative April Meetup
PPTX
FinalPresentation
PPTX
Managing Your Data to Improve Results - Scott Upfield & George Robertson
PDF
2014 BCGI PERE CFO Market Pulse
PDF
Unit economics example for B2B SaaS company
PPTX
WebSummit 2018 - The SaaS Business Model & Metrics
PPTX
CxC Matrix Customer Experience Technical Glimpse ClientxClient 908 350 3012
PDF
Pacific crest-ets-2015-saa s-business-metrics-panel-discussion1
PDF
AUTM The Startup Metrics
PPT
Perspective On Saa S Financials (Published)
PPT
Customer Experience Mastery make every interaction customer worthy
How to Maximize Discount Capture
19. saa s kp is and profitability analysis (deb sahoo)
The SaaS business model and metrics
Most critical SaaS metrics everybody should track
Most critical SaaS metrics everybody should track
R&D Tax Credits Presentation by Steve Ragow
Stock Pitch For Mailing Shipping Services PowerPoint Presentation PPT Slide T...
Startup Valuation: 5 Methods
Metro Detroit Real Estate Investment
Business and Data Analytics Collaborative April Meetup
FinalPresentation
Managing Your Data to Improve Results - Scott Upfield & George Robertson
2014 BCGI PERE CFO Market Pulse
Unit economics example for B2B SaaS company
WebSummit 2018 - The SaaS Business Model & Metrics
CxC Matrix Customer Experience Technical Glimpse ClientxClient 908 350 3012
Pacific crest-ets-2015-saa s-business-metrics-panel-discussion1
AUTM The Startup Metrics
Perspective On Saa S Financials (Published)
Customer Experience Mastery make every interaction customer worthy
Ad

More from saastr (20)

PDF
Workshop Wednesday: The New Era of HyperFunctional SaaS
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Supercharge Your GTM With Product-Driven Growth with Gene...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Reducing Churn in AI Adoption with Bain Capital
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: From Innovation to Integration: Lessons from Launching a ...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: How to Maximize Your Revenue: Strategies to Stop Leaving ...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Scaling Subscriptions to $2B+ ARR with Canva
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Turning Data Into Results: Best Practices From Successful...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Beyond Public Metrics: Insights from 2,400+ Private B2B C...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Unlocking Success: How to Optimize Your Cap Table with Fi...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Building Products for the Enterprise with UnifyApps - (10...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Scaling CS: From 0-5,000 Customers with Drata
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: 10 Things to Learn About Adding Payments or Banking to Yo...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Building a Remote-first Startup - Lessons from Working 5 ...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Scaling from $50M to $200M+ ARR: What Growth Investors Lo...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: From Sellers to Influencers: Transforming B2B SaaS Sales ...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: AI Productized Services: How Outcome as a Service Can Be ...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Preparing for Financial Due Diligence - Don't Let that be...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Professional Services: Lessons from Scaling Services Thro...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Effectively Scaling Go To Market from 0 to 1,000 with Ind...
PPTX
SaaStr Annual 2024: Why Business-in-a-Box Startups are the Next Big SaaS Cate...
Workshop Wednesday: The New Era of HyperFunctional SaaS
SaaStr Annual 2024: Supercharge Your GTM With Product-Driven Growth with Gene...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Reducing Churn in AI Adoption with Bain Capital
SaaStr Annual 2024: From Innovation to Integration: Lessons from Launching a ...
SaaStr Annual 2024: How to Maximize Your Revenue: Strategies to Stop Leaving ...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Scaling Subscriptions to $2B+ ARR with Canva
SaaStr Annual 2024: Turning Data Into Results: Best Practices From Successful...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Beyond Public Metrics: Insights from 2,400+ Private B2B C...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Unlocking Success: How to Optimize Your Cap Table with Fi...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Building Products for the Enterprise with UnifyApps - (10...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Scaling CS: From 0-5,000 Customers with Drata
SaaStr Annual 2024: 10 Things to Learn About Adding Payments or Banking to Yo...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Building a Remote-first Startup - Lessons from Working 5 ...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Scaling from $50M to $200M+ ARR: What Growth Investors Lo...
SaaStr Annual 2024: From Sellers to Influencers: Transforming B2B SaaS Sales ...
SaaStr Annual 2024: AI Productized Services: How Outcome as a Service Can Be ...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Preparing for Financial Due Diligence - Don't Let that be...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Professional Services: Lessons from Scaling Services Thro...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Effectively Scaling Go To Market from 0 to 1,000 with Ind...
SaaStr Annual 2024: Why Business-in-a-Box Startups are the Next Big SaaS Cate...

Recently uploaded (20)

PDF
SIMNET Inc – 2023’s Most Trusted IT Services & Solution Provider
PPTX
HR Introduction Slide (1).pptx on hr intro
PPTX
3. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE UNIIT 3^..pptx
PPT
Lecture 3344;;,,(,(((((((((((((((((((((((
PPTX
Dragon_Fruit_Cultivation_in Nepal ppt.pptx
PDF
NewBase 12 August 2025 Energy News issue - 1812 by Khaled Al Awadi_compresse...
PDF
COST SHEET- Tender and Quotation unit 2.pdf
PDF
Tata consultancy services case study shri Sharda college, basrur
PDF
Ôn tập tiếng anh trong kinh doanh nâng cao
PDF
Reconciliation AND MEMORANDUM RECONCILATION
PDF
Laughter Yoga Basic Learning Workshop Manual
DOCX
unit 2 cost accounting- Tender and Quotation & Reconciliation Statement
PPTX
Lecture (1)-Introduction.pptx business communication
PPTX
Belch_12e_PPT_Ch18_Accessible_university.pptx
PPTX
CkgxkgxydkydyldylydlydyldlyddolydyoyyU2.pptx
PDF
Daniels 2024 Inclusive, Sustainable Development
PDF
Deliverable file - Regulatory guideline analysis.pdf
PPTX
job Avenue by vinith.pptxvnbvnvnvbnvbnbmnbmbh
PDF
Katrina Stoneking: Shaking Up the Alcohol Beverage Industry
PDF
Digital Marketing & E-commerce Certificate Glossary.pdf.................
SIMNET Inc – 2023’s Most Trusted IT Services & Solution Provider
HR Introduction Slide (1).pptx on hr intro
3. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE UNIIT 3^..pptx
Lecture 3344;;,,(,(((((((((((((((((((((((
Dragon_Fruit_Cultivation_in Nepal ppt.pptx
NewBase 12 August 2025 Energy News issue - 1812 by Khaled Al Awadi_compresse...
COST SHEET- Tender and Quotation unit 2.pdf
Tata consultancy services case study shri Sharda college, basrur
Ôn tập tiếng anh trong kinh doanh nâng cao
Reconciliation AND MEMORANDUM RECONCILATION
Laughter Yoga Basic Learning Workshop Manual
unit 2 cost accounting- Tender and Quotation & Reconciliation Statement
Lecture (1)-Introduction.pptx business communication
Belch_12e_PPT_Ch18_Accessible_university.pptx
CkgxkgxydkydyldylydlydyldlyddolydyoyyU2.pptx
Daniels 2024 Inclusive, Sustainable Development
Deliverable file - Regulatory guideline analysis.pdf
job Avenue by vinith.pptxvnbvnvnvbnvbnbmnbmbh
Katrina Stoneking: Shaking Up the Alcohol Beverage Industry
Digital Marketing & E-commerce Certificate Glossary.pdf.................

How to Lie (to Yourself) With SaaS Statistics: Lessons from DFJ