Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10

Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green
Technologies, Conservation International
Sigma Xi talk, Howard University, November 29, 2010
Biocomplexity Decisionmaking
Innovative approaches to the inter-connected challenges of
Climate destabilization, Mass poverty
and Species extinction

―Fundamental scales of physics,
expressed in natural units, are remarkably different…widely spaced over 60
orders of magnitude. Without this kind of hierarchy, complex structures (e.g.
living beings) could not exist. Nobody knows why the scales are so apart‖
H0 = expansion rate of the universe
ρ vac = energy density of empty space
Ry = Rydberg constant of atomic physics
Λ QCD = scale governing the strong nuclear force
mW = mass of the W boson carrying the weak nuclear force
G-1/2 = Planck scale characterizing gravity, constructed from Newton’s constant G
Professor Sean Carroll
Caltech

BIOCOMPLEXITY - the complex behavioral, biological, social, chemical, and physical
interactions of living organisms with their environment.
www.nsf.org

New England Complex Systems Institute, Visualizing Complex Systems Science, www.necsi.org

Neural networks and synapses Fitness landscapes
Milankovitch cycles
Fractal watersheds
nested networks
swarms migrations
Collective intelligence

While non-linear
complex systems
pervade existence,
humans have a strong
propensity to think and
act as if life is linear,
uncertainty is
controllable, the future
free of surprises, and
planning can be
compartmentalized into
silos.
With nearly predictable
fat-tail futures.

Unprecedented
Challenges of
Historical & Global
Magnitude

More absolute poor than any time
in human history
[alongside more wealth than ever]
Masspoverty

Species
extinction
Species extinction by humans
1000x natural background rate

Climate
wierding
Where we will be by 2100 900ppm
PartsperMillionCO2
Past planetary mass extinctions
triggered by high CO2 >550ppm

Oceans
Acidifying
55 million years since oceans as acidic –
business-as-usual emissions growth
threaten collapse of marine life food web
Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

human
extinction?
????2100
12 to 16
billion
70,000 years
ago humans
down to 2000

Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences
A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere,
and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousands
of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of
humanity and most life on earth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with
the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,
and significant costs involved in countering
terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change
environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends
approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost
of a clean environment."
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining
the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:
Martin Weitzman

Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The
Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/
Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion
Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 Trajectory
GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm
Based on 6 Celsius average
global temperature rise due to
greater climate sensitivity
Green Economics negative CO2 by 2050
to achieve <350 ppm

Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
>$/GDP/cap

21052005
2 TO 3% Annual Average
Gross World Product
(GWP) 21st Century (~10
to 20x today’s)
2105
$500 trillion GWP
~$50,000 per cap
# in poverty?
$50 trillion GWP
~$7,500 per cap
2+ billion in
poverty?
$1,000 trillion GWP
~$100,000 per cap
# in poverty?

Averting catastrophes by
Greening the
Global Economy

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering
GENETICS
INFORMATICS NANOTECH
AUTOROBOTICS

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too
differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3
knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames
Natural system
Technical system
Social system

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions
Tucuruí dam, Brazil
St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience
50: 766–75,

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with
Combined Cycle Natural Gas
Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International
Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
DAM
Reservoir
Area
(km2)
Generating
Capacity
(MW)
km2/
MW
Emissions:
Hydro
(MtCO2-
eq/yr)
Emissions:
CC Gas
(MtCO2-
eq/yr)
Emissions
Ratio
Hydro/Gas
Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4
Curuá-
Una
72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5
Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58

Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success
Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become
climate positive and revenue positive
Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power
Ecosystem
Protection
Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS

1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous
improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary
benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &
resources)
2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS
Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio
that deliver triple benefits (climate protection,
biodiversity preservation, and promotion of
community sustainable development)
3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS
Select only verifiable ‘green power/fuels’ that are
climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow
poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts
Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for
developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or
about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020
Breakdown by abatement type
• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture)
• 6 Gt energy efficiency
• 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO2
14 million hectares burned each
year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons
CO2 per year. More emissions
than world transport system of
cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships
US
GHG
levels
Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO2
5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year
in mitigation services available in
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
annually ; and saving better-off
nations billions of dollars.
US
GHG
levels
Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive

$4 million to protect the Tayna and
Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in
eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation
area in Peru.
Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of
CO2 from being released into the
atmosphere.
Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity
Carbon Standards.
Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date

$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
CCS REDD
Geological storage (CCS) vs
Ecological storage (REDD)
Carbon Mitigation Cost
U.S. fossil Electricity CO2
mitigation cost annually
(2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
~$100 billion
~3 ¢ per kWh
~$18 billion
~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Reduced Emissions Deforestation
& Degradation (REDD)
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
0

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions
Tropical Deforestation 2007
13 million hectares burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions
$7.50 per ton CO2
1/2 cent per kWh
$18 billion/yr REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss
A win-win-win
outcome
A win-win-win
outcome

1824 Liters per year
(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year)
4.8 tons CO2 emissions per
year
~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at $10 per tCO2
Adds 7 cents per gallon
=

In the wake of 14
million hectares of
tropical forests
burned down each
year, some 16
million species
populations go
extinct.
Species
comprising the
natural laboratory
of biocomplexity
with future values
yet to be assessed
or discovered.

 One-quarter all medical drugs
used in developed world from
plants.
 Cortisone and first oral
contraceptives derived from
Central American yam species
 Pacific yew in western US
yielded anti-cancer drug taxol
 Vincristine from the Rosy
Periwinkle in Madagascar
 Drug to prevent blood clotting
from snake venom
 Active ingredient aspirin
synthesized from willow trees.
Bioprospecting biological wealth
Using bioinformatic tools

Biomolecules prospected from
different bioresources for
pesticidal, therapeutic and other
agriculturally important
compounds
Bioprospecting biological wealth
Using biotechnological tools
 Biomolecules for Industrial and
Medicinal Use
 Novel Genes/Promoters To
Address Biotic and Abiotic
Stress
 Genes for Transcription Factors
 Metabolic Engineering Pathways
 Nutritional Enhancement
 Bioavailability of Elements
 Microbial Biodiversity

1. Inherent rather than circumstantial.
2. Prevention rather than treatment.
3. Design for separation.
4. Maximize mass, energy, space, and time efficiency.
5. ―Out‐pulled‖ rather than ―input‐pushed‖.
6. View complexity as an investment.
7. Durability rather than immortality.
8. Need rather than excess.
9. Minimize material diversity.
10. Integrate local material and energy flows.
11. Design for commercial ―afterlife‖.
12. Renewable and readily available.
Principles of Green Engineering
Source: Anastas and Zimmerman, Design Through the 12 Principles of Green Engineering,
Environmental Science and Technology, March 1, 2003

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
CLOSING THE LOOP– Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing
Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry

Source: Green Chemistry & Catalysis for the Production of Flavours & Fragrances, Roger A. Sheldon,
Biocatalysis & Organic Chemistry, Delft University of Technology, Nice, 17 June 2005; and, R.A. Sheldon, Green
Chemistry & Catalysis for Sustainable Organic Synthesis, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, May 12, 2004
mass balance: E= [raw materials-product]/product

Source: The Green Screen for Safer Chemicals Version 1.0, Clean Production Action, Jan. 2001
The Green Screen is a benchmarking tool that
assesses a chemical’s hazard with the intent
to guide decision making toward the use of
the least hazardous options via a process of
informed substitution.

Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses on
design of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste or
pollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.
Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)

Reducing a Product’s Environmental Footprint
Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmental
effects or ―footprint‖ are reduced over time through incremental improvements in
sustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years
2009, 2025 and 2050.
Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008

Ultra-low Carbon
multi-beneficial
Energy Service
Options

To have a reasonable
confidence that
warming would stay
below 2 C, global
emissions must peak
by 2015, reach a
sustained rate of
decline of 10%/year
for decades, falling to
zero by 2050.
More cautious climate
scientists argue we
will need to go
negative through
2100 to reach 350ppm
– essential given
greater climate
sensitivity than
previous thought.
A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe
Climate Future A Synthesis of the Science
of Climate Change, Environment and
Development, SEI, TERI, PIK, 2009
900
1000
600
1000
900
World Energy
Projections

1. Economically affordable
2. Safe
3. Clean
4. Risk is low and manageable
5. Resilient and flexible
6. Ecologically sustainable
7. Environmentally benign
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures
10. Endogenous learning capacity
11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative
externalities & amplifying positive externalities
12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption
Dozen Desirable Criteria
Attributes of Green Energy Services
including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
through the entire life cycle?
through the entire lifespan?
from financial and price volatility?
to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
maintains air, water, soil quality?
adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
low recovery cost and lost time?
Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?
scalable production possibilities?
off radar of terrorists or military planners?

A Defensible Green
Energy Criteria Scoring
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste
power
Geo-
thermal
Nat
gas
Bio-
fuels
Oil
imports
Coal
CCS
nuclearTar
sand
Oil
shale
Coal to
liquids
Coal
no
CCS
Promote
CHP +
biowastes
Economically Affordable
Safe
Clean
Secure
Resilient & flexible
Ecologically sustainable
Environmentally benign
Fails gracefully, not catastro
Rebounds easily from failures
Endogenous learning capacity
Robust experience curves
Uninteresting military target

η
eta
SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
Universal symbol for Efficiency
The best thing
about low-
hanging fruit
is that it keeps
growing back.

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 for
developing countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or
about half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
Breakdown by abatement type:
• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture)
• 6 Gt energy efficiency
• 4 Gt low carbon energy supply
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
end-use
efficiency
CCS
Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)
US current
average

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
2¢ 50
33
25
end-use
efficiency

cogen
bldg scale
cogen
recycled
ind cogen
2¢
end-use
efficiency
47
32
23
1¢: 93 kg
CO2/$
Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced
per dollar spent on electrical services

Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California Energy
Commission, (916) 654-4930, ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

New York
California
USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity
Consumption
165 GW
Coal
Power
Plants
Californian’s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family
[EPPs]
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting
lower cost efficiency over new power plants or
hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China
to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
$50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction

Now use 1/2 global power
50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Public library – North Carolina
Heinz Foundation
Green Building, PA
Oberlin College
Ecology Center,
Ohio
ZERO NET ENERGY &
EMISSION GREEN
BUILDINGS
The Costs and
Financial Benefits of
Green Buildings, A
Report to California’s
Sustainable Building
Task Force, Oct. 2003,
by Greg Kats et al.
$500 to $700
per m2 net
present value

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of commercial building electricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amounts of power
plants with annual savings potential exceeding
tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
Daylighting could provide lighting services of
100s of GW power plants

Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.
Ultra-efficient Windows could save tens of
billions $$ per year & displace Alaskan pipelines

[source: SafeClimate.net]
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
6-pak CFLs Dow-Jones Average Bank Account
$
$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991
CFL factories displace power plants
The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per
year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting
services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-
fired power plant investments used to power less efficient
incandescent lamps.

Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants

Earth receives more solar energy
every 90 minutes than humanity
consumes all year

Source: Doug Balcomb, The Energy Road Ahead, Solar Today, April 2010, www.solartoday.org/
USA Green Energy Services by 2060

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97
year
TeraWattsperyear
Fast phase-out
fossil fuels
Global Green Economies-driven
Energy Services this Century
100

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –
1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting every energy and power source used in driving
economic activity

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—
on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!

90% of America’s current electricity could
be supplied with PV systems built in the
“brown-fields”— the estimated 2+
million hectares of abandoned industrial
sites that exist in our nation’s cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%
total US electricity from brownfields

SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Material
Replaced
Economic
Measure
Beijing Shanghai
Polished
Stone
NPV ($)
BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$18,586
2.33
1
+$14,237
2.14
1
Aluminum
NPV ($)
BCR
PBP (yrs)
+$15,373
1.89
2
+$11,024
1.70
2
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
China Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Economics of Commercial BIPVChina Economics of Commercial BIPV

Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

MW
Compared to:
Wind power 121,000 MW
Nuclear power 350,000 MW
Hydro power 770,000 MW
Natural Gas power 1 million MW
Coal power 2 million MW
Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008
40% annual growth rate
Doubling <22 months
40% annual growth rate through
2030 could provide twice current
total world energy use
2009
21GW
[158,000 in 2009]

2069
Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Year
Megawatts
2000 20692009 2021 2033 2045 2057
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Year
Megawatts
2000 21092009 2029 2049 2069 2089
Equal to total world consumption in 2009
59
TW
by
2075
59
TW
by
2119
What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?
2109
2089

Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,
zweibel@gwu.edu , http://Solar.gwu.edu/

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
Solar power beats thermal plants within their
construction lead time—at zero carbon price

1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 2
PV NUCLEAR
Billion $ 2008 constant
Civilian Nuclear Power
(1948 – 2009)
vs.
Solar Photovoltaics
(1975-2009)
$4.2
$85
Federal Research & Development Funds

Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 2MW wind turbines
Platform footprint
6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2
Total Wind spacing area
37,500 mi2
Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40%
95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South
Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =
Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70% of
Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to
8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural communities,
while also enabling one of world’s largest
restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon
and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2
mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
Potential Synergisms
2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into these
prairie grasslands -- which
naturally co-evolved
together for millennia --
generating a potential
revenue stream from
marketing high-value
organic, free-range beef.
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
Also More Resilient to
Climate-triggered
Droughts

Vehicle-to-Grid
Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet
Convergences & Emergences

Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-
scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with
3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus
8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity)
providing operating reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable
energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional
U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel
84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million).
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion
gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million
barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,
40% urban PM10, 80% SOx;
BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal
generation).

Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10

Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off

Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for
Biofuel Production through Algae Systems
Mississippi River Delta
Yangtze River Pearl River

Small Land footprint
Only Wastewater as Feedstock
Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923

CO2
ATS
Biodiesel
Fermenter
(Clostridium butylicum
C. Pasteurianum, etc.)
C6H12O6  C4H9OH + CO2 + …
Biobutanol
Ethanol
Acetone
Lactic Acid
Acetic Acid
Oil
ALGAL
BIOMASS
Solvent
Extraction
Nutrient Rich Water
(Sewage, polluted river water)
+ atmospheric CO2
(or power plant stack gases)
Clean water
Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH
Less CO2 in atmosphere
Transesterification
Organic
Fertilizer

Algae
butanol
biodiesel
Corn (ethanol)
Soy (biodiesel)
Estimated Biofuel Production
(gallons per acre or ha per year)
1520
500
----
2000
----
100
+
[3,770 gal/ha/yr]
[5,000 gal/ha/yr]
[1,250 gal/ha/yr]
[250 gal/ha/yr]
Biofuel Production from Algal
Turf Scrubber Biomass
(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)

Knowledge
generation
transmission &
distribution
networks

The volume of digital information that exists—500 billion gigabytes--
equals a stack of books stretching to Pluto and back 10 times –
36 trillion miles total.

The Library of Congress is the largest library in
the world, with nearly 128 million items on
approximately 530 miles of bookshelves.
The amount of
data produced
each year
would fill
37,000 libraries
the size of the
Library of
Congress.

Kevin Kelly, Next 5000 days of the Internet, TED talk, 12-20-08, www.ted.org/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
5000 days ago Pre-Web
Pre-Commercial Internet
5000 days from now Global
Cloud Network

Social
Collaboration
building a
Shared Vision

What Makes This
Possible?
•Digital Technology
• Internet networks
• Web applications
• Smart Phones &
Handhelds

The WIKIPEDIA Collective Intelligence MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the
Encyclopedia Britannica
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 100,000 volunteer editors
and content authors
Translating content into 150+ languages, and
Visited daily by > 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Size of a printed version of Wikipedia within 72 months (2001-2007)
Open Source & Global Access by Mobile Phones & Handhelds

How to fast-track greener cities

www.wbdg.org/
Whole
Building
Design
Guide
Passive Solar Cooling
Passive Solar Heating
Natural Ventilation
Solar Daylighting

Web-based Green
Building Advisor

Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Urban Rooftops
100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,
WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century

Solar smart poly-grids
Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy
provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based
on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with
administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map
algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank
expansion of solar panel locations.

Norman L. Johnson, Science of Collective Intelligence: Resources for change, in chapter in Mark Tovey (ed.). 2008. Collective
Intelligence, Creating a Prosperous World at Peace, www.earth-intelligence.net.
Utility of expert & collective with
increasing complexity

The Universe of
Green Tipping Points

THANK
YOU!
Michael Totten
Conservation International
mtotten@conservation.org

Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1
incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in 130 nations
Source: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering
Doing the right things wrong

Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1
incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in US states
Source: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering
Doing the right things wrong

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

SEVERE AIR & WATER POLLUTION, DISLOCATED REFUGEES

Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10

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Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10