Hydrologic modeling
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This document discusses the history and recent advances in hydrologic modeling. It begins with definitions of hydrology and applications of hydrologic models such as water resources planning. It then discusses the historical development of early component models in the 1900s and the creation of integrated watershed models starting in the 1960s. Recent advances include the use of remote sensing, GIS, and handling spatial and temporal variability. The future outlook emphasizes increasing model complexity through linking with other domains and improving reliability.
Hydrologic modeling
- 1. a)(ft G YDROLOGIC MODELING • INTRODUCTION • HISTORY • RECENT ADVANCES • FUTURE OUTLOOK
- 2. INTRODUCTION • DEFINITION OF HYDROLOGY - What happens to the ram? Occurrence, Movement, Distribution, and Storage of Water Quantity and Quality - Spatial, Temporal, and Frequency Domains (or Characteristics) - Quality of Water-Physical, Chemical and Biological - Spatial Scale-Watershed, Regional (Basin), Continental, and Global - Dynamic Interaction between Atmosphere, Pedosphere, Lithosphere, and Hydrosphere- Controlling Influences on Hydrology
- 3. APLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS • PLANNING, DESIGN, DEVELOPMENT, OPERATION, AND MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES PROJECTS • WATERSHED MANAGEMENT • ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND MANAGEMENT • CLIMATE CHANGE
- 4. APPLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS 0 SPECIFIC EXAMPLES - Flood Protection Projects, Flood Warning Systems, Reservoir Release Planning, Flood Plain Management, etc. Rehabilitation of Aging Dams Water Supply Forecasting - Irrigation Water Management - Wetland Restoration - Stream Restoration - Water Table Management - Drainage Systems Design - Soil Conservation Practices - Habitat Modeling - Hydropower Development - Consumptive Use and Water Allocation
- 5. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 0 THE BEGINNING YEARS: DEVELOPMENT OF COMPONENT MODELS o Surface Runoff Modeling • Rational Method (Mulvany, 1850; Imbeau, 1892) • Unit Hydrograph Method (Sherman, 1932) • Overland Flow Analysis (Keulegan, 1944; Izzard, 1944) • Unit Hydrograph Theory (Nash, 1957; Dooge, 1959) o Subsurface Flow Modeling Subsurface Flow Mechanism (Lowdermilk, 1934; Hursh, 1936; Hursh and Brater, 1944; Hoover and Hursh, 1944; Hursh, 1944; Roessel, 1950; Hewlett, 1961; Nielsen et al., 1959; Remson, et al., 1960)
- 6. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE • Determination of Storm Runoff Amount SCS-CN Method (1956) • Theory of Infiltration Green-Ampt Model (1911) Kostiakov Model (1932) Horton Model (1933) • Theory of Evaporation Energy Method (Richardson, 1931; Cummings, 1935) Combination Method (Penman, 1948)
- 7. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE • Determination of Abstractions - Interception (Horton, 1919) - Detention and Depression Storage (SCS9 1956) o Base Flow Darcy Equation (1854) Hydraulic Conductivity Relation (Fair and Hatch, 1933) Well Response to Pumping (Theis, 1935) Correlation between Ground Water and Precipitation (Jacob, 1943, 1944)
- 8. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE o Reservoir Routing Puis Method (USACOE, 1928) Modified Puis Method (USBR, 1949) o Channel Routing Muskingum Method (McCarthy, 1934-35) Modified Puis Method (USBR, 1949)
- 9. WATERSHED MODELS • MODELS OF HYDROLOGIC CYCLE • STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL (NOW HSPF) (Crawford and Linsley, 1966) • EXAMPLES OF MODELS - HSPF-IV (Bicknell et al., 1993) - USDA-HL Model (Holtan et al., 1974) - PRMS (Leavesley et al., 1983) - NWS-RFS (Burnash et al., 1973) - SSARR (Rockwood, 1982) - SWMM (Metalf and Eddy et al., 1971) - HEC-HMS (U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1999)
- 10. WATERSHED MODELS KINEROS (Woolhiser et al, 1990) - ANSWERS (Beasley et al., 1977) - CREAMS (USDA, 1980) - EPIC (Williams, 1995) SWRRB (Williams, 1995) SPUR (Carison et al., 1995) AGNPS (Young et al., 1995) - WATFLOOD (Kouwen et al., 1993) - UBC (Quick, 1995) - SHE (Abbott et al., 1986) - TOPMODEL (Beven, 1995) - IHDM (Calver and Wood, 1995) - SHETRAN (Ewen et al., 2000) MI
- 11. WATERSHED MODELS - WBNM (Boyd et al., 1979) - RORB (Laurenson and Mein, 1995) - THALES (Grayson et al., 1995) LASCAM (Sivapalan et al., 1996) - Tank Model (Sugawara, 1975) - Xinanjiang Model (Zhao et al., 1980) - HBV Model (Bergstrom, 1976) - ARNO Model (Todini, 1988) - TOPIKAPI Model (Todini, 1995) - HYDROTEL (Fortin et al., 2001)
- 12. CLASSIFICATION OF WATERSHED MODELS 0 CRITERIA FOR CLASSIFICATION - Process Description - Dynamics and Simplification Time Scale - Space Scale - Method of Solution - Land Use - Model Use - Model Complexity
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- 15. MODEL CONSTRUCTION • MODEL ARCHITECTURE AND STRUCTURE • WATERSHED REPRESENTATION • HYDROLOGIC PROCESS - Precipitation - Storage Abstractions - Evaporation and Evapotranspiration - Infiltration Soil Moisture Accounting - Runoff Production Snowmelt Runoff - Surface Runoff Routing - Channel Flow Routing - Interflow - Groundwater Flow - Stream-Aquifer Interaction - Water Quality
- 16. MODEL CONSTRUCTION • MODEL CALIBRATION • GOODNESS-.OF-TEST • MODEL VALIDATION • MODEL ERROR ANALYSIS • MODEL RELIABILITY
- 17. RECENT ADVANCES o HYDROLOGIC PATA NEEDS - Hydrometeorologic - Topographic - Geomorphologic - Pedologic - Land Use Lithologic Hydraulic HYDROLOGIC PATA ACQUISITION - Remote Sensing - Satellite Technology Radar Technology - Digital Terrain and Elevation Modeis - Chemical Tracers o PATA PROCESSING AND MANAGEMENT - Geographical Information Systems (GIS) - Pata Base Management Systems (DBMS)
- 18. RAINFALL VARIABILITY • STORM MOVEMENT • SPATIAL VARIABILITY • TEMPORAL VARIABILITY • RAINFALL FIELD DESCRIPTION • RAINFALL FORECASTING
- 19. VARIABILITY IN WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS 0 SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF HYDRAULIC ROUGHNESS - Effect 011 Runoff Dynamics and Hydrograph - Formation of Shocks SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF INFILTRATION - Hydraulic Conductivity Steady Infiltration - Mean Infiltration Effect on Runoff Hydrograph
- 20. SCALING AND VARIABILITY • SPATIAL SCALING - Spatial Heterogeneity in Watershed Characteristics - Spatial Variability in Processes • PHYSICAL SPATIAL SIZE - Representative Elementary Area - Hydrologic Response Units - Computational Grid Size • TEMPORAL SCALING - Time Interval of Observations - Computational Grid Size - Temporal Variability of Processes
- 21. LIN NG HYDROLOGIC MODELS • GEOCHEMISTRY • ENVIRONMENTAL BIOLOGY • METEOROLOGY • CLIMATOLOGY • OCEANOGRAPHY • SOCIAL SCIENCES • ECONOMICS • DECISION MAKING
- 22. MODEL CALIBRATION 9 PARAMETER ESTIMATION ALGORITHM Obj ective Function Optimization Algorithm - Termination Criteria - Calibration Data • HANDLING DATA ERRORS • DETERMINATION OF DATA NEEDS-QUANTITY AND INFORMATION-RICHNESS REPRESENTATION OF UNCERTAINTY OF CALIBRATED MODEL • ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
- 23. FUTURE OUTLOOK • INCREASING SOCIETAL DEMAND FOR MODELS • INCREASING EMPHASIS ON LINKING MODELS TO ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECO- SYSTEMS • EMPHASIS ON USER- FRIENDLINE SS • INC ORPORATION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGy, COMPUTER-BASED DESIGN, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, AND SPACE TECHNOLOGY • MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND RELIABILITY • MODEL COMPETITIVENESS