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IDecideFast – Bidding Business Model
     Traffic drivers:                                                                                            Bidding Bulletin
1.    Bidding websites       Expanding Bidding                  Free model          Online Automated
      Ibid, webidz, ubid        Templates                  Increases comfort in     Service for bidders               Users
2.    Decision software                                    determining bid and
      firms.                      Customer                    willingness to             Personal                    Bidders in online
3.    Snipers                    Acquisition                    participate         relationships with                  Auctions:
4.    Realtors                                                                                                  1.   Traditional eBay Auction
                                                                                     domain experts             2.   Best Offer eBay
      (Champaign Realtor
      Association)                                          Separate Premium                                    3.   Three offers – eBay
                                                                                                                4.   Name your own price -
     (domain experts)                                            Models                                              Priceline
                             Modelers/                                              Web
                             Algorithms                       Bidders access        1.    BiddingPal.Com        Bidders in Real Estate:
                                                                                    2.    Intermediaries e.g.   1.   Best Offer Real Estate.
                                                              fellow bidders                                    2.   Haggling – Real Estate.
                                  Software                                                AppleStore (longer
                                                                                          term)
                                 Developers                 Eyeball access for                                       Advertising
                                                              Ad companies                                           Companies
                            MKTing/Sales/Admin             And Domain Experts                                    And Domain Experts


                                                                                                     Template fee
        Software Development
                                                  People                   Ads for the free           from more
             Hosting/Infrastructure                                        online auction            sophisticated
                                                                            bidding tool              models e.g.
             Sales/initial customer acquisition                                                       real estate
BiddingPal.com
New Templates
• Based on customer/partner need
  – eBay three-offer auction
  – Maximum bid for timed auctions
eBay’s Three-Bid Auction
New Template




    New template used in eBay
New Template
Maximum Bid – Timed Auctions
        “Snipers”
Maximum Bid – Timed Auctions
        “Snipers”
Uncertainties in Maximum Bid
Uncertainties in Maximum Bid
• How do you best determine your absolute
  maximum?
• Consider that…
  – You have not seen the item in person to
    determine the status or quality of the item.
  – You may not know the current market price.
  – You do not know the future market price.
Partner Development



         Online Bidding          Sniping              Realtor
           Websites              Websites           Associations




•   Shared economics: User clicks

•   Co-development/invention: Mixing crawler capabilities with model

•   Common customer: Online users
Partner Development
Partner Development
Partner Development
Partner Development
Example of Sealed Bid Auctions
Snipers
Ongoing
• Ongoing contacts with partners
  – ibid/ubid/webids
  – Snipers
  – Champaign county realtors
• Continue building capability to track customer
  usage habits
• Video tutorial
• Test elasticity of demand for template fee
• Enhancing website
Appendix
I decide fast lecture 8 resources
I decide fast lecture 8 resources
I decide fast lecture 8 resources
Number of Potential Customers
– Fee-based real estate template
   • Champaign -100 per month
   • Chicago area – 4000 per month
   • U.S. – 300,000 per month
• How do you best determine your absolute
  maximum?
• Consider that…
  – You have not seen the item in person to
    determine the status or quality of the item.
  – You may not know the current market price.
  – You do not know the future market price.
Number of Potential Customers
• Free online general auction templates
  – Sealed bid template - 30000
     • National liquidators ….
  – Unlimited bidding template
     • Ibid – 15000 customers
     • Webidz – 20000 customers
     • Ubid – 15000 customers
  – Three-offer template
     • eBay - 20000
Pricing Option 1
– Free Online Auctions, Fee Real Estate (1 year)
   •   U.S. – 300,000 per month
   •   20% of market (very low estimate based on surveys)
   •   $10 per customer
   •   $600,000 per month from real estate template
– Free Online Auctions with Ads
   • 100,000 users
   • RPU =$1 - $2
Pricing Real Estate Template
• Pay per single use
  – May reduce cost for users who only bid on 1-2
    homes
  – Increases uncertainty to user of total cost
• Pay per number of uses
  – Uncertainty about number of uses remains
• Pay per unit time
  – More willingness to pay
  – Increases revenue (can charge more than for
    single/set number of uses)
Pricing Option 2
– All Free
   • 100,000 users online auctions/month
   • 60,000 users real estate per month
   • Ad RPU =$2
Opposing Forces of Bidding
1.000


                       Chances of
0.800                  Winning

0.600




0.400




0.200




0.000
         0   10   20    30        40    50     60    70   80   90   100



-0.200

                                       Bid
Opposing Forces of Bidding
1.000



0.800


                       Value gained given you win at this bid
0.600



0.400



0.200



0.000
         0   10   20   30        40    50     60    70   80   90   100


-0.200



-0.400

                                      Bid
Opposing Forces of Bidding
1.000



0.800
                       Chances of
                       Winning
0.600
                                                   Value gained given
0.400
                                                   you win at this bid

0.200



0.000
         0   10   20   30        40    50     60      70    80    90     100


-0.200



-0.400

                                      Bid
Opposing Forces of Bidding
1.000



0.800
                       Chances of
0.600
                       Winning

0.400



0.200



0.000
         0   10   20     30        40    50     60    70   80   90   100


-0.200



-0.400

                                        Bid
IDecideFast
                                                                                Value Proposition
90% of decisions we face do not require
mathematical analysis. Just clear thinking.                           Social Networking
Many are faced by a large % of the population.
                                                                      Fast Idea Generation
Categorized Post to the World/Friends
                                                                 Collaborative Decision Making
e.g. My Decision is: which school should I go to?
                                                                   Designed for the lay person not the
Please help me with:
                                                                             decision analyst.
1. Alternatives                                                                     What do I know?


                                                                                      Useful
2. Uncertainties                                        What are my
                                                                                   Information                      What consequences
                                                                                                                    do I care about?
                                                        choices?

3. Trade-offs                                                         Creative
                                                                  Alternatives
                                                                                                              Clear
                                                                                                               Values
                                                                                 Elements of
4. Frame                                                                           A Good
                                                                                  Decision
                                                                                                           Sound
5. Pros/Cons                                        What is it that
                                                    I am deciding?
                                                                      Helpful
                                                                      Frame                               Reasoning
                                                                                                                        Am I thinking
                                                                                                                        straight about this?
                                                                                  Commitment

Categorized Decisions                                                                  to
                                                                                 Follow Through



Relationships, Marriage, Entertainment,                                          Will I really take action?



                                                                          90% Clarity by                                                       5% Clarity by
Dining, Car, Purchase, Vacations,                                            chatting,                                                         simple model
School, Bidding, Retirement                                               brainstorming,
                                                                              venting



                                                     5% Detailed Solutions to Select Decisions (Templates)
                                                     (Based on Customer Feedback)
                             Instant                 Bidding, Which Job, Vacation, Refinancing, Retirement,
                             Messaging/posting       Medical Decision
1.    Traffic             1. Expanding                1.   Social            1.   Online self-
      generators                                                                  service        1.   Decision bulletin
                          templates/Categories             networking
     (keywords from       2. Customer                                                                 Users
                                                      2. Collaborative
•    Twitter              acquisition beyond                                                     2.   Advertising
                                                         decision making
                          college students                                                            companies
•    Ask.Com                                          3. Rapid feedback
                          3. Build/operate/                                                      3.   Template Users
•    Facebook                   maintain              4. Detailed
     Updates)                                         solutions for
                                                         select problems
2.                                                      (templates)
Professional/Student                                                          1. Internet
                           1.    Modelers
associations/LinkedIn
                           2.    Software vendor
                           3.    MKTing/Sales/
3. Template Domain
                                Operation/admin
Experts
                                personnel



1.    Software development
2.    People                                                     1.   Advertisement
3.    Incentives (for initial customer acquisition)              2.   Coupons
4.    Hosting/infrastructure
5.    Gathering data for templates                               3.   Template fees
6.    Survey/questionnaire costs for templates

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I decide fast lecture 8 resources

  • 1. IDecideFast – Bidding Business Model Traffic drivers: Bidding Bulletin 1. Bidding websites Expanding Bidding Free model Online Automated Ibid, webidz, ubid Templates Increases comfort in Service for bidders Users 2. Decision software determining bid and firms. Customer willingness to Personal Bidders in online 3. Snipers Acquisition participate relationships with Auctions: 4. Realtors 1. Traditional eBay Auction domain experts 2. Best Offer eBay (Champaign Realtor Association) Separate Premium 3. Three offers – eBay 4. Name your own price - (domain experts) Models Priceline Modelers/ Web Algorithms Bidders access 1. BiddingPal.Com Bidders in Real Estate: 2. Intermediaries e.g. 1. Best Offer Real Estate. fellow bidders 2. Haggling – Real Estate. Software AppleStore (longer term) Developers Eyeball access for Advertising Ad companies Companies MKTing/Sales/Admin And Domain Experts And Domain Experts Template fee Software Development People Ads for the free from more Hosting/Infrastructure online auction sophisticated bidding tool models e.g. Sales/initial customer acquisition real estate
  • 3. New Templates • Based on customer/partner need – eBay three-offer auction – Maximum bid for timed auctions
  • 5. New Template New template used in eBay
  • 7. Maximum Bid – Timed Auctions “Snipers”
  • 8. Maximum Bid – Timed Auctions “Snipers”
  • 10. Uncertainties in Maximum Bid • How do you best determine your absolute maximum? • Consider that… – You have not seen the item in person to determine the status or quality of the item. – You may not know the current market price. – You do not know the future market price.
  • 11. Partner Development Online Bidding Sniping Realtor Websites Websites Associations • Shared economics: User clicks • Co-development/invention: Mixing crawler capabilities with model • Common customer: Online users
  • 16. Example of Sealed Bid Auctions
  • 18. Ongoing • Ongoing contacts with partners – ibid/ubid/webids – Snipers – Champaign county realtors • Continue building capability to track customer usage habits • Video tutorial • Test elasticity of demand for template fee • Enhancing website
  • 23. Number of Potential Customers – Fee-based real estate template • Champaign -100 per month • Chicago area – 4000 per month • U.S. – 300,000 per month
  • 24. • How do you best determine your absolute maximum? • Consider that… – You have not seen the item in person to determine the status or quality of the item. – You may not know the current market price. – You do not know the future market price.
  • 25. Number of Potential Customers • Free online general auction templates – Sealed bid template - 30000 • National liquidators …. – Unlimited bidding template • Ibid – 15000 customers • Webidz – 20000 customers • Ubid – 15000 customers – Three-offer template • eBay - 20000
  • 26. Pricing Option 1 – Free Online Auctions, Fee Real Estate (1 year) • U.S. – 300,000 per month • 20% of market (very low estimate based on surveys) • $10 per customer • $600,000 per month from real estate template – Free Online Auctions with Ads • 100,000 users • RPU =$1 - $2
  • 27. Pricing Real Estate Template • Pay per single use – May reduce cost for users who only bid on 1-2 homes – Increases uncertainty to user of total cost • Pay per number of uses – Uncertainty about number of uses remains • Pay per unit time – More willingness to pay – Increases revenue (can charge more than for single/set number of uses)
  • 28. Pricing Option 2 – All Free • 100,000 users online auctions/month • 60,000 users real estate per month • Ad RPU =$2
  • 29. Opposing Forces of Bidding 1.000 Chances of 0.800 Winning 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 -0.200 Bid
  • 30. Opposing Forces of Bidding 1.000 0.800 Value gained given you win at this bid 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 -0.200 -0.400 Bid
  • 31. Opposing Forces of Bidding 1.000 0.800 Chances of Winning 0.600 Value gained given 0.400 you win at this bid 0.200 0.000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 -0.200 -0.400 Bid
  • 32. Opposing Forces of Bidding 1.000 0.800 Chances of 0.600 Winning 0.400 0.200 0.000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 -0.200 -0.400 Bid
  • 33. IDecideFast Value Proposition 90% of decisions we face do not require mathematical analysis. Just clear thinking. Social Networking Many are faced by a large % of the population. Fast Idea Generation Categorized Post to the World/Friends Collaborative Decision Making e.g. My Decision is: which school should I go to? Designed for the lay person not the Please help me with: decision analyst. 1. Alternatives What do I know? Useful 2. Uncertainties What are my Information What consequences do I care about? choices? 3. Trade-offs Creative Alternatives Clear Values Elements of 4. Frame A Good Decision Sound 5. Pros/Cons What is it that I am deciding? Helpful Frame Reasoning Am I thinking straight about this? Commitment Categorized Decisions to Follow Through Relationships, Marriage, Entertainment, Will I really take action? 90% Clarity by 5% Clarity by Dining, Car, Purchase, Vacations, chatting, simple model School, Bidding, Retirement brainstorming, venting 5% Detailed Solutions to Select Decisions (Templates) (Based on Customer Feedback) Instant Bidding, Which Job, Vacation, Refinancing, Retirement, Messaging/posting Medical Decision
  • 34. 1. Traffic 1. Expanding 1. Social 1. Online self- generators service 1. Decision bulletin templates/Categories networking (keywords from 2. Customer Users 2. Collaborative • Twitter acquisition beyond 2. Advertising decision making college students companies • Ask.Com 3. Rapid feedback 3. Build/operate/ 3. Template Users • Facebook maintain 4. Detailed Updates) solutions for select problems 2. (templates) Professional/Student 1. Internet 1. Modelers associations/LinkedIn 2. Software vendor 3. MKTing/Sales/ 3. Template Domain Operation/admin Experts personnel 1. Software development 2. People 1. Advertisement 3. Incentives (for initial customer acquisition) 2. Coupons 4. Hosting/infrastructure 5. Gathering data for templates 3. Template fees 6. Survey/questionnaire costs for templates