Identifying preparing-for-technological-developments
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The document summarizes Brian Kelly's presentation on identifying and preparing for technological developments. Kelly discusses approaches for identifying technology trends, such as reviewing reports from experts like Gartner and commissioning reports. He also advocates using a collaborative approach like Twitter to minimize biases and gain fresh insights. Kelly summarizes the key findings of the NMC Horizon Report, including short-term technology trends in electronic publishing and affordable software. He outlines the Delphi process used to identify drivers of adoption and challenges. The presentation stresses the importance of considering future implications and preparing institutions for technological changes.
Identifying preparing-for-technological-developments
- 1. 1 Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments Brian Kelly, Innovation Advocate, Cetis • A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference What approaches does our enthusiastic librarian take in identifying technology trends?
- 2. Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments Brian Kelly Innovation Advocate Cetis University of Bolton Bolton, UK Contact Details Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Twitter: @briankelly Cetis Web site: http://www.cetis.ac.uk/ Blog: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/ 2 Slides and further information available at https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/jibs-2015/ A presentation for the JIBS 2015 event on “Technology will not defeat us: offering a good service in difficult times”, Birmingham on 26 February 2015 Event hashtag: #jibs15
- 3. Contents Introduction • About me Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Identifying Developments • The NMC Horizon Report for Libraries & the Delphi process: What are the major technology trends? Beyond the technology trends – the drivers accelerating technology adoption Beyond the technology trends & drivers – the challenges impeding technology adoption • Carrying out your own technology predictions Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Institutional Planning • Preparing for the implications • Conclusions 3 Introduction
- 4. About Me Brian Kelly • Innovative Advocate at Cetis since Oct 2013 • Was UK Web Focus at UKOLN from 1996-2013 • Interests in promoting use of innovative technologies and practices in higher education • Independent consultant after 28 February (TBC)! In 2014: • Delivered “planning for the future” half-day workshops at international library conferences in Pretoria & Bath • Invited expert, NMC Horizon Report, Academic Libraries In 2013: • Presented paper on “Reflecting on Yesterday, Understanding Today, Planning for Tomorrow” paper at Umbrella 2013 4 Introduction
- 5. Predicting the Future: The Risks Risks in attempting to predict the future: • We get it wrong – the future didn’t materialise • We get it wrong – we were too cautious • Futorologists have biases 5 Predictions
- 6. Looking at the Futurologists • Gartner report 6
- 7. Gartner Beware vested interests which may be threatened by implications of predictions 7 Gartner May Be Too Scared To Say It, But the PC Is Dead, Mark Hachman, Readwrite Web, 5 April 2013
- 8. We commission reports from experts in the field 8PDF
- 9. We commission reports from experts in the field 9 … is an information professional who has specialized in the fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years. In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission Standard) standard for digital library metadata.
- 10. A Collaborative Approach We could use Twitter 10 Tweet your ideas with event hashtag I think teleporting could have implications for libraries in the future! #jibs15 58 Teleporting could have implications for libraries as people won’t be put off from visiting when it’s raining! #jibs15 22 and implications for libraries We would therefore need larger physical spaces for the teleporting visitors to the library #jibs15 41 Discuss alternative implications … So maybe the books could be teleported. Would we need a physical library building? #jibs15 48 10 & issues such as legal implications, business models, … What about the legal implication? Border control? Which VAT rate to use? Importing banned book? … #jibs15 #wtf 27 Feel free to add implications for users … Open collaborative approaches can help minimise biases, provide fresh insights, … (but Twitter probably isn’t the best tool for this!)
- 11. THE Article Article which summarised the “6 key trends accelerating technology adoption in higher education in 2015” published in Times Higher Education on 23 Feb 2014 Based on the NMC Horizon Report: 2015 Higher Education Edition 11
- 12. About the NMC Horizon Library Study 12 NMC Horizon Report, 2014: Library edition: • Published in Aug 2014 • Based on ideas from panel of experts • Ideas refined using Delphi process • Report available under Creative Commons licence Your interests: • What are the technology trends? What are the implications for me? • What is the ‘Delphi process’? Can I use it?
- 13. NMC Panel Panel composed of 47 library and technology experts from 16 countries on five continents (including 3 from UK) 13
- 14. Short-Term Technology Trends What technology trends did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 14 Seven key categories were identified: TechnologyTrends
- 15. Short-Term Technology Trends Two areas of importance in the short-term (<1 year to adoption) were identified and prioritised: 15 “electronic publishing is redefining the tools between print and digital, still image and video, passive and interactive” Report gives examples of innovative uses e.g. ANU Press, established in 2003 to explore & enable new modes of scholarly publishing. “the way we think about software itself is changing, and whole industries are adjusting to a new world in which sophisticated but simple tools routinely sell for 99 cents or are completely free” TechnologyTrends
- 16. What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process (abbreviated version!): • What significant technology trends do you feel will have an impact in the short term (< 1 year) • Tweet (or shout) your ideas! • Session chair will record ideas This is an example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of experts 16 Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important: • Area 1 • Area 2 This is an example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined and prioritised TechnologyTrends hashtag: #jibs15fut
- 17. Medium-Term Drivers What trends driving technology adoption in the medium term (3-5 years?) did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 17 Trends are sorted into three movement-related categories: (1) fast-moving trends that will realize their impact in the next 1-2 years and two categories of slower-moving trends that will realize their impact within (2) 3-5 or (3) 5+ years. After summarising technologies important in short-term, lets look at medium-term drivers of technology adoption TechnologyDrivers
- 18. Medium-Term Drivers Two drivers of technology adoption in medium term (3-5 years to adoption) were identified and prioritised: 18 “Once limited to print-based journals and monographic series, scholarly communications now reside in networked environments and can be accessed through an expansive array of publishing platforms”. “Academic & research libraries are gradually embracing the movement toward openness as the Internet has opened the floodgates of information and scientific knowledge”. TechnologyDrivers
- 19. What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process: • What significant drivers of technology adoption do you feel will have an impact in the medium term (3-5 years) • Tweet (or shout) your ideas! • Session chair will record ideas This is a further example of crowd-sourcing ideas from a group of experts 19 Vote on two ideas which you feel are most important: • Area 1 • Area 2 This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be refined based on your experiences TechnologyDrivers hashtag: # jibs15fut
- 20. The Challenges What challenges impeding technology adoption in academic and research libraries did the NMC Horizon panel identify? 20 These were classed as: • Solvable Challenges: those that we understand and know how to solve • Difficult Challenges: Those that we understand but for which solutions are elusive • Wicked Challenges: Those that are complex to even define, much less address TheChallenges
- 21. The Challenges Two difficult challenges were identified: 21 “It is important for these new digital data sets to be preserved alongside the research derived from them for future use and in longitudinal studies, but this presents a perpetual challenge for library acquisition and archiving practices as formats continue to evolve”. “.. advents in Internet technology are fostering changes in patron behavior, challenging libraries to either participate in the online knowledge exchange or risk becoming obsolete over time. ”. TheChallenges
- 22. What’s Missing? Let’s use the Delphi process: • What: Solvable Difficult Wicked challenges are missing? • Tweet (or shout) your ideas! • Session chair will record ideas 22 Choose one idea per category: • Solvable • Difficult • Wicked This is a further example of how crowd-sourced ideas can be prioritised based on your personal/institutional context TheChallenges hashtag: # jibs15fut
- 23. Review NMC Horizon report: • Provides insights into technological trends, driver & barriers for library • Open methodology which caters for experts highlighting their own particular interests But: • It may not be applicable to your specific context • It doesn’t address “What do I need to do next?” 23 Review
- 24. The Full NMC Horizon Report NMC Horizon report for Libraries 2014: • 50 pages • 18 topics 6 key trends 6 significant challenges 6 important technologies 24 2 1 3
- 25. Tools for Futurists Some tools which can help you to predict the future: • Quick surveys • Observing recent developments Not covered in talk (ideas for reinterpreting the present and providing fresh insights): • The History Of The Web Backwards, UK Web Focus blog, 19 Nov 2007 • Reversible, Reverse History and Side-by-Side Storytelling, OUseful blog, 22 March 2010 25 Tools
- 26. The Future Is Already Here! Hands up if you have: Used a mobile device for work-related purposes in bed Options: Yes, No or I’m indecisive! 26 “20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010 Informal survey (Twitter & blog post), March 2012 “The future is already here - it's just not very evenly distributed” What are the implications of this new ‘platform’? Tools
- 27. What Did You Notice Recently? “What did you notice for the first time today (recently)?” • Can be important for trend spotting • May signify that something is becoming mainstream that you hadn’t appreciated before (WiFi on bus, …) 27 Amazon locker (Feb 2013) Video on underground (Dec 2008) Tools Thanks to Tony Hirst Next steps
- 28. Action Brief Statement Technology Will Not Defeat Us: Next Steps Having identified future developments of relevance to the organisation, you will now need to convince senior management of the potential. From the Hyperlinked Library MOOC Planning template from assignment 2: Action Brief Statement: Convince ______ that by _______ they will ________ which will ________ because _______. 28Acknowledgements to Michael Stephens and Kyle Jones This tool was used in a number of Planning for Future workshops (with voting and prizes) Planning
- 29. Risks The Need to Explicitly Address Risks From “Risks and Opportunities Framework for Exploiting the Social Web” by Kelly & Oppenheim: • Summarise risks • Summary risks of not adopting technology • Summarise strategies for minimising (or accepting) risks • Evidence base • Document biases and prejudices 29 Can you innovate without taking risks? Planning
- 30. Do it For Yourself Do it for yourself! • Slides, exercises, etc. for half-day workshop available under a Creative Commons licence 30 Workshop held at SAOIM 2014 (South Africa) & ELAG 2014 (Bath) conferences. See: • http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/ • http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/elag-2014-preparing-for-the-future-workshop/ As described Institutional planning Planning
- 31. Warning From The Past Tim Berners-Lee didn’t let evidence of the popularity of Gopher hinder development of the Web 31 In 1993 Gopher was the safe bet for an important technological innovation
- 32. The Serenity Prayer • The Serenity Prayer 32Serenity Prayer
- 33. Scenario Planning for Addressing the Unexpected 33 Commercialisation Devolved ownership The niche librarian Everyone’s an IT expert Possible scenarios for libraries and the Cloud Steady as she goes Outline challenges and opportunities for libraries based on an expanded version of these scenarios) Everyone’s a librarian Planning
- 34. Conclusions We have: • Seen examples of technology trends, drivers & challenges as agreed by NMC Library panel • Learnt about the NMC’s Delphi processes • Contributed our perspectives • Voted on the ideas provided • Heard about follow-up approaches Next steps: • Read the NMC Horizon Report and use it to inform planning processes • Implement an institutional event to help prepare your organisation for the future (run it annually?) • Invite an independent consult to facilitate 34
- 35. 35 Continue the Discussion Give your thoughts on a blog post about this session: https://ukwebfocus.wordpress .com/2015/02/25/
- 36. Questions? Any questions, comments, …? 36
- 37. This presentation, “Identifying and Preparing for Technological Developments”, by Brian Kelly, Cetis is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence Note the licence covers most of the text in this presentation. Quotations may have other licence conditions. Images may also have other licence conditions. Where possible links are provided to the source of images so that licence conditions can be found. 37 Slides and further information available at: https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/jibs-2015/ Accompanying blog post at: https://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/2015/02/25/identifying- and-preparing-for-technological-developments/ Licence and Additional Resources