Inference and attribution
Download as PPT, PDF0 likes215 views
The document discusses various biases in human perception and attribution, highlighting the challenges individuals face in accurately interpreting behavior and information. It outlines several cognitive biases, such as the fundamental attribution error, availability bias, and confirmation bias, which distort our understanding and decision-making processes. These biases can lead to misconceptions about oneself and others, as well as poor judgments influenced by familiarity, memorability, and presentation of information.
Inference and attribution
- 1. INFERENCE & ATTRIBUTION ‘The greatest problem with communication is the illusion that it has been accomplished.’ G.B.Shaw
- 2. ATTRIBUTION Attribution is: 1. Observing someone else’s behaviour 2. Guessing why they behaved like that Researchers consistently find that people are very bad at attribution Also, we tend to assume that our attributions are correct.
- 3. FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR Lee Ross shows that: When we are observing other people, we tend to attribute behaviour to internal causes (personality traits, abilities, motives…) rather than to external aspects of the situation When we are thinking about ourselves. we tend to attribute our behaviour to situational causes
- 4. ULTIMATE ATTRIBUTION ERROR Pettigrew found that: When observing out-group people: we attribute bad behaviour to internal traits we view good behaviour as an exception When observing in-group people we attribute bad behaviour to situational causes we attribute good behaviour to internal traits Pettigrew saw prejudice as a personality trait
- 5. OUTGROUP HOMOGENEITY BIAS Quattrone Found that We see more variety among people in our own group We see people in other groups as more homogeneous
- 6. BIASES 1. Availability 2. Familiarity 3. Memorability 4. Recency 5. Sequence 6. Sparkle 7. Compatibility 8. Preconception 9. Privilege 10. Visual Presentation 11. Mental Effort 12.Hasty Generalization 13.Inconsistent Judgements 14.Over-simplification under Pressure 15.Emphasising Difference
- 7. AVAILABILITY BIAS We are more likely to be influenced by information that is: already present, handy, or easy to find Less likely to access information that requires effort to locate it. Problem is less available information is often: more reliable more definitive The less accessible information could be: trade or state secrets a more accurate appraisal of a situation results of careful research
- 8. FAMILIARITY BIAS We tend to believe whatever is most familiar, or what is an extension of the familiar. What we have long known gets by with little scrutiny. What is made familiar enters our beliefs with less examination Repetition often has more influence than analysis / evidence. If someone says something false a thousand times, it is still false. Unfortunately, "common knowledge" is often incorrect. Unfamiliarity or strangeness we tend to reject, to disbelieve.
- 9. MEMORABILITY BIAS Information that we find interesting or memorable is much more likely to influence our judgment about the probability of its occurrence. If we can recall specific examples of an event we tend to believe that event occurs more often than it really does. When examples cannot be brought to mind, the frequency of the event is judged to be lower. And, of course, information you cannot remember at all is not going to be used in making a decision
- 10. RECENCY BIAS New information pushes out old. We tend to favour recently gained information. If the information arrived in a different order, our decision would have been different. Cure this bias by: taking good notes reviewing them regularly
- 11. SEQUENCE BIAS Greatest attention occurs at very beginning and very end. Beginning and end can be minutes or months apart Information received first or last in a sequence will be remembered better Information arriving in the middle will be unfairly discounted or ignored If information is received a little at a time: we are biased toward the first part of the information is established. later information will receive less attention If information is received all at once: we make a less biased selection of what to process If all the information is together it is easier to see what is important and what is not.
- 12. SPARKLE BIAS Lively, immediate, personal experience overwhelms theory or generalization. We often base our personal behaviour and values on generalizations formed by single personal experiences even if the generalizations conflict with established facts Abstract truths, detailed statistics, moral values can be ignored when strong personal experience indicates a different conclusion. This is why people give us "razzle dazzle" instead of cogent arguments. If we are convinced that we have experienced a truth we will often not listen to any arguments to the contrary. The emotion attached to the experience the reality of it all the feeling of being an eyewitness are too much to confute.
- 13. Compatibility (Confirmation Bias) If we want to be stable and sane, we need a pretty firm idea of what the world is like So, we reject ideas that do not conform with our sense of how things are. We tend to accept ideas that agree with our beliefs and reject those that conflict. When we are wrong, we continue to reject what is true and continue to build a false world. To avoid this bias: examine our biases once a year always entertain the idea that you might be wrong
- 14. PRECONCEPTION BIAS Most information is ambiguous enough to allow more than one interpretation Our current concerns tend to control: our perceptions our interpretations of incoming information Selective perception can change a person's view of reality: What people expect or wish to see, they will see We seek and give weight to information that supports information we already believe. We depreciate or reject information that conflicts with existing beliefs or conclusions
- 15. PRIVILEGE BIAS Information that seems to be scarce, secret, special, or restricted gets greater value and appears more credible than information that just anybody can obtain. The manipulators have caught on to this bias, and use it to make us want things that would otherwise make us yawn.
- 16. VISUAL PRESENTATION BIAS Information presented visually influences us more than information presented textually. Visual items are immediate, graphic and colourful We do not need to process symbols (to read) But what if the text version is more accurate and the picture deceives? What if the picture did not intend to deceive, but we interpret its message wrongly?
- 17. MENTAL EFFORT BIAS Information that is easy to understand, presented clearly and simply, described in exact and graspable terms, is much more likely to influence us Information that is difficult, tedious, or ambiguous is less influential We are more persuaded by anecdotes and stories than by facts. A good story beats a table of data any day. But is it the truth we need? not an entertaining story.
- 18. HASTY GENERALISATION We formulate generalizations on the basis of very small samples (1-3) The first two or three examples of something (especially if experiential, see Sparkle above) are judged to be representative, though they usually aren't. Generalizing from one's own limited experience then adjusting one's interpretation of subsequent events is a major problem in life
- 19. INCONSISTENT JUDGEMENTS We struggle to apply consistent judgmental and evaluative strategies in similar cases. We give information from one source more favourable treatment than information from another. We view information received in the morning more favourably or more critically than information received in the afternoon.
- 20. OVER-SIMPLIFICATION UNDER PRESSURE Under pressure, we use shortcuts We simplify our models of the world ignore complex issues use simpler heuristics stereotype collect quick impressions pigeonhole skim simply to cope with time or action constraints
- 21. EMPHASISING DIFFERENCE Two differing items seen close together in time or in space appear more different than they really are The mind exaggerates differences, perhaps to help distinguish the items. If a report is not so good and another pretty good, one seems perfect and the other terrible.