Internet human map
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This document provides forecasts for how technology will transform the human internet experience in the coming decade. It outlines foundational technology forecasts in areas like platforms, workloads, and computational interfaces. It also describes combinatorial forecasts that examine how distinct technology trends could interact and produce new outcomes when combined. These combinatorial forecasts are grouped under four potentials: flow, sense, control, and emerge. Examples and signals from today's world are given to demonstrate the direction of each forecast. The goal is to go beyond linear extrapolation and anticipate disruptive changes from new technological combinations.
Internet human map
- 2. SEAMLESS AND INTELLIGENT DEVICE ENSEMBLES WEAVING A WEB OF APPLICATIONS PEOPLE AS PERIPHERALS COMBINATORIAL FORECASTS INTUITIVE INTERFACES TOTAL RECORDING AND TRANSCRIPTION NEW OS FOR PERSONAL DATA CYBERSECURITY: INOCULATING THE INTERNET E3: ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENGINEERED THE DIGITAL CONNECTOME ALGORITHMIC ARMS RACE
- 3. CRITICAL TENSIONS Glass Houses vs. Black Boxes The Human Internet vs. The Machine Internet The Cosmopolitan Internet vs. Internet Fragmentation Augmentation vs. Dependency
- 4. f lo w S E N S E E M E R G E C O N T R O L massivedatastorageandsearch|summarizationandstorification mobileandembeddedsensornets|powerandbatterydesign dynamicnetworkarchitectures|object&userecognition context-awareapps&services object& userecognition | open resources context-aware apps & services automated process optimization | wearable computers machine learning | context-aware apps and services high-speeddataminingandmatching predictiveanalytics|machinelearning multi-sensory interfaces | augmented reality | smart surfaces cognitivecom puting power and battery design cloud supercomputing | dy nam ic networkarchitectures cloud supercomputing | dynamic network architectures high-speed data mining and matching | data surveillance context-awareappsandservices|openresources multi-factor biometric authentication multi-factorbiometricauthentication|datasurveillance SeamlessandIntelligentDeviceensembles W eaving a w eb of applications People as Peripherals Intuitive Interfaces TotalRecordingandTranscription e3: energy efficiency engineered the digita l connectome AlgorithmicArmsRace NewOSforPersonalData Cybersecurity: Inoculating the Internet ocuspec.com technologyreview .com lifelapse.com wired.com sec.gov sec.gov ibm .com scientificamerican.com greenlight.calit2.net futurity.org pittpatt.com pittpatt.com databanker.com bis.gov.uk apple.com technologyreview.com w ebintents.org ifttt.com projects.csail.mit.edu taskrabbit.com TotalRecordingofChildhoodCognitivescientistDeb Royinstalled11camerasand14microphonesinhishomebefore thebirthofhisson.Herecordedatotalofmorethan90,000hours ofvideoover3years,morethan200terabytesofdata,completely documentingtheprocessofhisson’slanguagelearning. By 2022,people and organizationswillhavetheabilitytokeepdigitalscrapbooks ofalloftheirinteractionsandtobeabletominerecordsofallpastmeetingsfor patterns and insights. Voice, haptics, and gesture will dominate the next era of interface, but will soon be joined by responsive and anticipatory systems that will leverage im plicit intention markers such as eye tracking, emotional signals, and other non-verbal cues. Software initially developed for crowdsourcing and social enterprise applications is now able to perform task assignment and coordination roles traditionally occupied by human managers and supervisors. M eta-services and progr am m atic constructs thattransform disparate appl ication functionalities into real-tim e solutions w illb e the connective tissueoftheInternet,m uch as hyperlinks w ere to theearlyweb. Anintegratedecosystemofnetworkeddeviceswill allowforseamlesscontent,contextualawareness, andintelligentassistancebasedonuserneeds. wallets,repositories,orclouds—allservedbyintelligentdigitalagents. searchablepersonaldatacontainers—vaults,banks,lockers,eventnetw orks, By2022,muchofouronlineinteractionwillbeexperiencedthrough secure, balance openness and security. code-sniffing technologies, bio-authentication methods, and new ISP rules to Pernicious code is increasingly infecting the Internet, encouraging use of technology (ICT) energy efficiency. needs and to improve information and communication developed and scaled to meet growing device power cells, and biofuel for mobile devices are being rapidly charging surfaces, solar and kinetic chargers, fuel Universal power supplies, wireless charging, connection pathw ays ove rothers. networks w ith form ation s designed to privilegecertainnetwork phenom ena, su ch as w iring together engineered to take adva ntage ofneural-likefrontierNetworks architecture w illbe deliberately againstotherpredictivealgorithms. astheychangetheirowncodesinordertocompete butwillalsocreateemergentandvolatileproperties meaningfulpatternsofhumanandmachinebehavior, Algorithmswillharnessmassivedatatogenerate Lifelapse LifelapseisaniPhoneapplication.Oncetheuserputs the phone in a specialpocket,itautomaticallytakespicturesevery30 seconds.These arethencompiledastime-lapsevideostobeshared. Emotion-Detecting Smartphone Sam sung is prototyping new software that can infer a smartphone users’ m ental state from behaviors such as typing speed, use of backspaces and deletes, and shaking. Ocuspec This powerful, low-cost gesture recognition technology works across platforms allowing it to be integrated into everything from a TV to a laptop. TaskRabbit Taskrabbit allows users to offer payment to a crowd of screened helpers for help with chores. Soylent Soylent, developed by Michael Bernstein at MIT, embeds crowdsourced editing and proofreading functions directly into MS Word, allowing users to receive input from hundreds, in real-time, while drafting a document. W eb Intents Thisfram ework lets users enabletheirInternetapplicationsto communicatewithand issue com m ands toeachother,likeTwitterorDelicious. AirplayMirroringAirplayMirroring letsyouwirelesslystreamfromoneormore iPadsoriPhonestoyourHDTVthroughan AppleTV.MidataMidataisavoluntaryprogramthattheUKGovernment MidataMidataisavoluntaryprogramthattheUKgovernmentis undertakingwithindustry,givingconsumersincreasingaccess totheirpersonaldatainaportable,electronicformat. Databanker TheFacebookPrivacyInformerApp calculates r isk metricsbasedonhow anindividualhasconfigured Facebook privacy settingsandgeneratesafinalnumberthatratespersonalprivacy risk. PittPatt PittPatt provides a facial recognition software develop- ment kit (SDK) that allows anyone to integrate this capability more easily into their products and services. Scavenging Power From The Air Georgia Tech researchers are developing printable, flexible devices that can scavenge ambient electromagnetic energy and convert and store the power. Greenlight Calit2 researchers developed a system of networking architectures, sensors nets, quantitative software analysis, server arrays, and visualization tools for greater efficiency and reduced carbon footprints. Uncovering Pro perties o f Cognitive Netw o rks Recent research suggests that the brain’s neurons align to form a 3D grid. C o g n itive C o m puting IBM is currently m odeling the brainsystemsof com plex anim alsasa precursortowhatitis calling “cognitive com puting,”orcomputation properties leveraged bythebrain. Polyworld Thisisoneofseveralplatforms designedtocreateanenvironmentforAIto evolvenewapproachesandcapabilities. PredictiveSoftwaredisrupts financialMarketsRegulatorshave foundautomatedtradingsoftwaretobe akeyfactorinsomeextrememarket fluctuations,includinga“flashcrash”in2010. D ig ital Ants: Stigm ergic CyberSecurity Programs w ander through com puters searching out and swarming viruses.They leave “digital pherom ones” when they sense a problematic behavior. If Th is, Th en Th at This service allows users to create ”triggers” across platforms, “I write a tw eet, post it on Facebook and then share the “triggers” so friends can use them too.” TheSamsungSmartWindow The SamsungSmartWindowisatransparentLCD whichturnsaregularwindowinyourhouse intoaon-demandtouch-screeninterface. Legend This map highlights the technological changes occuring with the Internet and how they will transform the human Internet experience in the coming decade. It contains seven foundational technology forecasts and ten combinatorial forecasts. The foundational technology forecasts are divided into two clusters: platform and workload, located along either side of the figure. The combinatorial forecasts are arrayed around the human figure and divided into four functional potentials: FLOW, SENSE, ONTROL and EMERGE. Fou nd ationa l T ec h nol ogy For ec as ts Fundamental changes are occurring in the way the Internet functions. Forecasts for the core computational and network architectures for mobile and embedded systems are shown in the platform clusters. New and powerful functionalities for networked computing systems are forecasted in the workload clusters. C omb inator ia l For ec as ts In a messy and complex world where accelerating change creates technological disruptions, dynamic social reconfigurations, and rapid organizational innovation, linear extrapolation of technological trends is insufficient. Instead, technological change will be driven by the combination and recombination of foundational elements. Combinatorial forecasting, then, involves the systematic intermingling of distinct technology trends with the goal of perceiving alternative outcomes that could occur when these elements are mixed together. T ec h nol ogy E na b l e rs Each combinatorial forecast contains a list of several core technologies that are changing conditions of possibility. These technological trends or advancements enable the shifts described in the forecasts. S igna ls Signals support each forecast with concrete examples from the world today. These include new technologies, research, businesses, or other endeavors that demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole. fo u r po t entials FLOW Functional assets are being fragmented and recombined into new arrays to provide more relevant, efficient, and personalized service. SENSE Computational interfaces are becoming more ubiquitous, human-centric, and invisible. ONTROL Boundaries are difficult to maintain with the Internet, but new forms of control will aid in the struggle for secure transactions and private interactions. EMERGE Machine learning will advance quickly, unleashed from human control and allowed to develop in unexpected ways. TotalRecordingofChildhoodCognitivescientistDeb Royinstalled11camerasand14microphonesinhishomebefore thebirthofhisson.Herecordedatotalofmorethan90,000hoursof videoover3years,morethan200terabytesofdata,completely documentingtheprocessoflanguagelearning. NewOSforPersonalDatarepositories,orclouds,allservedbyintelligentdigitalag en ts. chablepersonaldatacontainers—vaults,banks,lock ers, eve ntnetw orks,w allets , By2022,muchofouronlineinteraction willbe expe rienc ed th ro ugh secure ,sear PLATFORM networks Re-Engineering The Network: Quality Performance Wireless Networks: Dynamic Configurations computational cloud Cloud-Served Supercomputing: New Operating Systems Open Resources: Data, Apps, and Services Exotic Hardware: Biological and Quantum embedded and local systems Smart Surfaces: Scalable, Ubiquitous, and Invisible Smart Spaces: Sensing, Recording, and Learning Coordinated Devices: Heterogeneous, Connected, and Adaptable mobile hardware Mobile Sensor Platforms: Pervasive and Powerful Mobile Computing: Handhelds and Wearable Computing Personal Robots: Drones, Swarms, and Anthropomorphic Assistants workload rendering and simulation Utilizing Big Data: Simulations, Models, and Visualizations Video Web: Synthetic, Interactive, and Hyperlinked Dimensionality: 3D, Immersive, and Holographic mining and reasoning Autonomous Processes: Machine-to-Machine Contextual Assistance: Analytics, Optimization, and Validation Understanding Humans: Machine Learning sensing and recognition High-Resolution Sensing: Motion, Volume, and Activity Real-World Interaction: Recognition, Discovery, and Filtering
- 5. networks A cascade of fundamental changes in net- work software and hardware will greatly improve connections. computational cloud - tational cloud of super intelligent services, including - cations with machine intelligence and learning. embedded and local systems displays of every size, sensors, actuators, and mobile hardware A vast and complex array of connected pervasive in human experience and environments in unprecedented ways. FOUNDATIONAL TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS rendering and simulation applications outsourced to the cloud, devices’ rich user interfaces and graphics. Advances in rendering, simulations, and modeling will make displays a major driver of CPU chip performance, with photorealistic simulations dominating network device usage. mining and reasoning Machine intelligence and learning will applications, automating a vast amount of what was once human work. sensing and recognition Devices equipped with sensor software anticipating user needs. PLATFORM CLUSTER WORKLOAD CLUSTER
- 6. HOW TO USE THIS MAP: Thinking Systematically about the Future F LOW, SENSE, ONTROL EMERGE. Working with this Map EXPLORE F LOW, SENSE, ONTROL EMERGE FOCUS DRILL DOWN CONSIDER RE-COMBINE create Institute for the Future Technology Horizons Program Acknowledgements