IRJET- Risk Modelling in Highway Construction Project using Regression and Fault Tree Analysis.

International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 06 Issue: 05 | May 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.211 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 5027
Risk Modelling in Highway Construction Project using Regression and
Fault Tree Analysis
Mr. V. NIRANJAN1, SHABNA .K.V2
1Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, RVS Technical Campus, Coimbatore-600025, India,
2PG student, Department of Civil Engineering, RVS Technical Campus, Coimbatore-600025, India,
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Abstract – Construction industry is consideredasoneof the
most complex industrial sector. It is because of the reasons
that construction projects involve a varietyofcomplexprocess
working simultaneously. Proper management of all this
processes is quite challenging for the management team. Risk
is nothing but the threats occur during the project life cycle.
Risk may be various kinds. There are various factors which
affect the occurrence of these risks. All these risk occur during
the project life cycle will results in financial loss and even in
stoppage of particular project. Hence in order to prevent this,
proper risk management is very important. Risk management
can be done only by assessing the chance of occurrence of
risks. This thesis is conducting to find out various risk factors
that occur in construction project usingPI methodandtorank
them according to their priority. For that a questionnaire of
five-point scale was prepared. Eight major risks were
considered for the questionnaire survey. SPSS softwareisused
for risk assessment and is done with the help of important
index equation.
Key Words: Project Management, Risk Management,
Risk Factors, Risk assessment.
1. INTRODUCTION
The construction industry is subject to more riskscompared
with many other industries due to the unique features of
construction activities, such as long period, complicated
processes, abominable environment, financial intensity and
dynamic organization structures.Hence,takingeffective risk
management techniques to manage risks associated with
variable construction activities is important for the
successful delivery of a project. Risk management is the
identification, assessment and prioritization of risk (defined
in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives,
whether positive or negative) followed by coordinate and
economical application of resources to minimize, monitor
and control the probability and/ or impact of unfortunate
event or to maximize the realization of opportunities. A
systematic process of risk management has been divided
into risk classification, risk identification, risk analysis and
risk response, where risk response has been further divided
into four actions, i.e. retention, reduction, transfer and
avoidance.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Ming-The Wang et. al. (2003) “Risk Allocation and Risk
Handling of Highway Projects in Taiwan” provides analytic
procedures to recognize the risk allocation of construction
projects and investigate the influence of risk allocation to
contractor’s risk handling decisions. This paper also
investigates the effects of risk allocation and risk event
conditions on contractors’ risk handling decisions because
owners and contractors usually have disagreements over
risk responsibilities. Mohamed Sayed Bassionyet. al. (2015)
“Identification and Assessment of Risk Factors Affecting
Construction Projects”tried toidentify, qualify,study,assess,
and quantify the factors that affect budget and time
contingency. This paper focused to identify and study the
factors that affect cost overrun and scheduleoverrun,alsoto
develop a probability distribution charts for likelihood, cost
impact and schedule impact, and to quantify the Risk
assessment impact on cost and schedule. Yanjun Zhao et. al.
(2011) “ForecastforConstructionEngineeringRisk Basedon
Fuzzy Sets & System Theory” introduces the fuzzy system
theory to build a constructionengineeringrisk fuzzyforecast
model. Osama Ahmed Jannadiet.al.(2003)“Risk Assessment
in Construction” presents a risk assessor model (RAM) that
was developed & that determines risk scores for various
construction activities. The model also provides an
acceptability level for the risks and determines a
quantitative justification for the proposed remedy.Sadi A.
Assafet. al. (2006) “Causes of delay in large construction
projects “done surveyontimeperformanceofdifferenttypes
of construction projects in Saudi Arabia was conducted to
determine the causes of delay and their importance
according to each of the project participants. The most
common cause of delay identified by all the three parties is
‘‘change order’’. Ana I. Irimia-Diéguezaet. al. (2014) “Risk
Management in Megaprojects” focusedon risk identification.
Our purpose is to establishing the state of the art in risk
management in megaprojects, systematizing the risks
studied in the Literature, as well as to identify potential
areas of further research. Dr. Patrick. X.W. Zouet. al. (2004)
“Identifying Key Risks in Construction Projects: Life Cycle
and Stakeholder Perspectives”: This research endeavored to
identify key risks associated with the achievement of all
project objectives in terms of cost, time, quality,
environment and safety. Irjet Template sample paragraph
.Define abbreviations and acronyms the first time they are

used in the text, even after they have been defined in the
abstract. Abbreviations such as IEEE,SI,MKS,CGS,sc,dc,and
rms do not have to be defined. Do not use abbreviations in
the title or heads unless they are unavoidable.
3. METHODOLOGY
4. RISK IDENTIFICATION
In phase 1, as a part of risk identification and risk validation
60 risks were identified and listed out. The identified risks
can be grouped or classified under cost risks, quality risks,
environmental risks and safety risks. The risks were
identified from various journals and publications. The risk
validation was done through pilot survey. Risks identified
from literature reviews: 1) Tight project schedule 2) Design
variations 3) Variations by the client 4) Loss due to rise in
fuel price 5) Insurance risks 6) Worker characteristics 7)
Changes in climate, temperature 8) Unsuitable construction
planning 9) Occurrence of dispute 10) Price inflation of
construction materials 11) Diversity of work types 12)
Incomplete approval and other documents 13) Inaccurate
cost estimate 14) Inadequate program scheduling 15)
Variations by the client 16) Variations of construction
operations 17) High performance expectations 18)
Inadequate program scheduling 19) Low management
competency 20) Unavailabilityofsufficientamountofskilled
labours 21) Lack of coordination 22) Noise pollution due to
construction operations 23) Schedule pressure 24)
Inadequate supervision 25) Supervisory violations26)Poor
quality material supply 27)Improperverificationofcontract
document 28) Lack of enforcement of legal judgment 29) No
past experience in similar projects 30)Shorttendertime 31)
Internal management problem 32) Improper project
feasibility study 33) Poor relation and disputes withpartner
34) Project delay 35) Market risks 36) Changes in work 37)
Subsurface geological an geotechnical conditions 38) Late
drawings and instructions 39) Unavailability of resources
40) Changes in seismic criteria 41) Error in structural
designs 42) Wrong selection of materials 43) Delayed
deliveries and disruptions 44) Unsuitable equipment 45)
Environmental analysis- incomplete/ wrong 46) Offsite and
onsite wetlands 47) Land acquisition problems 48) New
stakeholders 49) New information required for permits 50)
Inconsistent cost, time,scopeandquality51)Political factors
change (political interference) 52) Local communities pose
objections 53) Water quality issues 54) Historic site,
endangered species or wet land present 55) Inexperienced
staff assigned 56) Insufficient time to plan 57) Too many
projects 58) Consultant or contractor delays 59) Lack of
coordination/ communication 60) Estimating/ scheduling
error.
Based on risk validation, the 60 risks were validated andout
of it 28 risks were classified under project approval delay,
time overrun risks, cost overrun risks, site condition risks
and safety risks.
4. CONCLUSION
Innovative procurement processes shall be introducedinthe
future in order to reduce the adversarial risk occurring in
projects. Those concepts have been developed to involve all
project participants. There are basically five categories of
classic risk response strategies: accepting, avoiding,
monitoring, transferring, and mitigating the risk Accepting
the Risk: Accepting the risk means, understand the risk, its
consequences, and probability, and choose to do nothing
about it. If the risk occurs, theprojectteamwillreact.Thisisa
common strategy when the consequences or probabilitythat
a problem will occur are minimal. As long as the
consequences are cheaper than the cure, thisstrategy makes
sense. Avoid the Risk: Avoid a risk by choosing not to do part
of the project. This deletion of part of the project could affect
more than theproject-thebusinessriskcouldalsobeaffected.
Changing the scope of the project might change the business
case as well, because a scaled-down product could have
smallerrevenueorcost-savingopportunities.Risk/returnisa
popular expression in finance-high return on an investment,
probably more risk isinvolved.Avoidingrisksonprojectscan

have the same effect-low risk, low return. Monitor the Risk
and Prepare Contingency Plans: Monitor a risk by choosing
some predictive indicator to watch as the project nears the
risk point. The risk strategy in is to monitor the risk by being
part of the test team. Contingency plans are alternative
courses of action prepared before the risk event occurs. The
most common contingency plan is to set asideextramoney,a
contingency fund, to draw on in the event of unforeseen cost
overruns. It’s important to make sure that this fund is used
only for unforeseen cost overruns-not to make up for
underestimating or substandard performance. Contingency
plans can be looked on as a kind of insurance and, like
insurance policies, they can be expensive.
REFERENCES
1) Aljassmi, H. and Han, S. (2013). “Analysis of Causes
of Construction Defects Using Fault Trees and Risk
Importance Measures.” Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management ASCE, 139, 870-880.
2) Ana I. Irimia-Diégueza et. al. (2014) “Risk
Management in Megaprojects” Procedia -Social and
Behavioral Sciences 119 ( 2014 ) 407 – 416.
3) Angeline Swarna et. al. (2014) “Fault Tree Analysis
in Construction Industry for Risk Management”
International Journal of Advanced ResearchinCivil,
Structural, Environmental and Infrastructure
Engineering and Developing Volume: 2 Issue: 1
4) Anil Kumar Gupta et. al. (2013) “Risk Variation
Assessment of Indian Road PPP Projects”
International Journal of Science, Environment and
Technology, Vol. 2, No 5, 2013, 1017 –1026
5) Choudhry, R. M., Aslam, M. A., Hinze, J. W. and Arain,
F. M. (2014). “Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis of
Bridge Construction in Pakistan: Establishing Risk
Guidelines.” Journal of Construction Engineering
And Management © ASCE, 140, 1-9.
6) Creedy, G. D., Skitmore, M. and Wong, J. K. W.
(2010). “Evaluation of Risk Factors Leading to Cost
Overrun in Delivery of Highway Construction
Projects.” Journal Of Construction Engineering And
Management © ASCE, 136, 528-537.
7) Dione, S., Ruwanpura, J. Y. And Hettiaratchi, J. P. A.
(2005). “Assessing and Managing the Potential
Environmental Risks of Construction Projects.”
Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management © ASCE, 10, 260-266.
8) Hallowell,M.R. and Gambatese, J. A. (2010). “
Population and Initial Validation of a Formal Model
for Construction Safety Risk Management.” Journal
of Construction Engineering And Management ©
ASCE, 136, 981-990.
9) Hariharan Subramanyan et. al. (2012)
“Construction Project Risk Assessment:
Development of Model Based on Investigation of
Opinion of Construction Project ExpertsfromIndia”
Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management ASCE, 138, 409-421.

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