LEARNING FROM GLOBAL
DISASTER LABORATORIES
A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
A FRAMEWORK FOR A
COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE
ON 21ST CENTURY
DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPE
FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO
A DISASTER
TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES
THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF
“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when
the continuums of: 1) people, 2)
community (i.e., a set of habitats,
livelihoods, and social constructs),
and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods,
earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in
space and time, when and where the
people and community are not ready.
THE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
• PEOPLE ( 7 Billion and
counting)
• COMMUNITIES
• RECURRING EVENTS
(AKA Natural Hazards), which are
proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
INTERSECTION OF THESE
CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL
CAUSE A DISASTER,
AND SOME WON’T
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE
READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL
CHALLENGE ITS STATE OF
READINESS
YOUR
COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•FLOODS
•SEVERE WIND
STORMS
•EARTHQUAKES
…ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSES
FAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
COUNTER MEASURES
• BEST POLICIES
•BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH
AMERICA
CARIBBEAN
BASIN
SUB-SAHARA
AFRICA
MEDITER-
RANEAN
ISLAND
NATIONS
ASIA
SOUTH
AMERICA
EUROPE
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM
OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM
HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
• IGNORANCE
• APATHY
• DISCIPLINARY
BOUNDARIES
• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION
(DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD)
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM:
(SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT
• DWELLINGS
• SCHOOLS
• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES
• BUSINESSES
• INFRA-
STRUCTURE
• ETC
THE RECURRING - EVENTS
CONTINUUM
• FLOODS
• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS
• ETC.
EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER
RECURRING FLOODING
Interactions of
Planet Earth’s sun,
atmosphere, litho-
sphere, hydro-
sphere, and
biosphere cause:
Floods.
INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S
CORE, MANTLE,
ASTHENOSPHERE, AND
LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
HAITI EARTHQUAKE
JANUARY 12, 2010
INTERACTIONS OF THE
CONTINENTAL
LITHOSPHERE WITH THE
OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE
AND THE HYDROSPHERE
CAUSE RECURRING
TSUNAMIS
TSUNAMI: JAPAN
MARCH 12, 2011
TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA
DEC. 26, 2004
RECURRING SEVERE
WINDSTORMS:
HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES
INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN,
ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE,
TROPOSPHERE, AND
LITHOSPHERE
ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL
STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010
• Alex (H) June 21
• Bonnie July 27
• Colin Aug 3
• Danielle (H)
Aug 21
• Earl (H) Aug.29
• Fiona Aug 30
RECURRING VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS:
INTERACTIONS OF THE
CORE, MANTLE,
LITHOSPHERE, AND
ATMOSPHERE
VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELAND
APRIL 14, 2010
RECURRING DROUGHT
EPISODES
Planet Earth’s
atmospheric-
oceanic-
lithospheric
interactions
cause:
Droughts
WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS,
WILL A DISASTER OCCUR?
THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE
AND THE COMMUNITY
ARE NOT READY
PEOPLE COMMUNITY
EVENTS
P
T
S
O
CP
INCREASED
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH DISASTER RISK
DECREASED
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
LIVING WITH DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DEMANDS ON
COMMUNITY
NO DISASTER THIS TIME
CAPABILITIES OF
COMMUNITY
TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EDUCATION:
PENETRATE SOCIETY
IGNORANCE TO
ENLIGHTENMENT
APATHY TO
EMPOWERMENT
BOUNDARIES TO
NETWORKS
ENABLEMENT OF
POLITICAL WILL
BUILDING EQUITY
AND
PENETRATING
SOCIETY
1. DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICIES ---
---ARE LIKE THE
SYSTEM - ANALYSIS
PROCEDURES THAT
FOUR BLIND
PEOPLE WOULD
USE TO DESCRIBE
AN ELEPHANT
2. DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICIES
MUST CLOSE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE
DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND
IDENTIFY WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY
CONTINUUMS
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL,
EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY,
PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND
THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND
UNCERTAINTIES
KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES
DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time
of the available knowledge
BETWEEN organizations, disciplines,
and people will always create
uncertainties in choices and
differences in capability to achieve
disaster resilience.
KNOWLEDGE GAPS
DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time
WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or
individuals that create uncertainties
and slow progress towards disaster
resilience.
STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS
BENEFITS EVERYONE
IMPROVES
PREPAREDNESS
IMPROVES PROTECTION
IMPROVES EM
RESPONSEE
IMPROVES RECOVERY
DISASTER
RESILIENCE
3. FROM A DISASTER TO
DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF PAST
DISASTERS LEADS TO “COUNTER
MEASURES” THAT PREVENT
RECURRENCES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
POLICIES
Design and Implementation of
policies and practices:
a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the
PEOPLE, and
b) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in
the COMMUNITY.
STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY
VULNERABILITY
WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON
THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE
ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER
LEAVE AYTHING TO
CHANCE
“BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES”
• PROTECTION
(BUILD TO
WITHSTAND)
• PREPAREDNESS
(BE READY FOR
ALL POSSIBILITIES)
“BEST POLICIES AND
PRACTICES”
• EMERGENCY
RESPONSE
• (ACTIONS TO
[PROTECT PEOPLE
AND PROPERTY)
• DISASTER RECOVERY
(RESTORING
COMMUNITY SYSTEMS
TO NORMAL AS
QUICKLY AS
POSSIBLE)
READINESS FOR A
POSSIBLE DISASTER
“BEST POLICIES
AND
PRACTICES”
ACADEMIA
FUNCTIONAL
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
INFORMATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
ORGANIZATION
NETWORKING
CHANNELS
NO
DISASTERS
COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS
Stratec Consulting
PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
Anticipatory Preparedness
Adoption and Implementation of a Modern
Engineering Building Codes & Standards
Timely Early Warning and Evacuation
Timely Emergency Response (including
Emergency Medical Services)
Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
COMMUNITIES
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
• TYPHOON HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
TYPHOON RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
TYPHOON DISASTER
RESILIENCE
•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
THE CHALLENGE:
BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES: CREATE,
ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS,
PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE
CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS
NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER
RESILIENCE

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