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Macro-economic
Environment of Nepal 2017
By: Upama Rai
9th August, 2017
Dimensions of an Economy
 GDP,
 income distribution,
 Poverty Level,
 Personal consumption,
 Saving, debt and credit
availability,
 Budget position,
 Inflation, Interest rate,
 Fiscal and Monetary policy
 Development policies and
strategies,
 Allocation of resources
 Potentials to supply goods,
 Service to the consumers and
 Raw materials to industrial units
 Size,
 Distribution,
 Density,
 Growth,
 Age and gender mix,
 Urbanization and
 Migration of population
Economic Dimension
Economic Development DimensionIndustrial and Agricultural Dimension
Socio-Economic Environment
A. Economic Dimension
615
638 674 694 694
743
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
GDP (RS. IN BILLION)
Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
(Estimated)
Annual % changes in GDP
Real GDP at basic price Agriculture Industry Service
Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of
GDP by Sector (in % at Basic Price)
33.2 32.2 30
14.3 13.6 14
52.5 54.2 56
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (Estimated)
Primary Secondary Tertiary
Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
42
31 30.9
24.7
25.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 2003 2004 2008 2011
Population below poverty (%)
Source: The World Bank
Major Problems and Challenges facing Nepalese Economy
 Economic Development at the federal, provincial and local levels with
federal governance system
 Challenge of increasing domestic production
 Reducing dependency to foreign employment and foreign aid
 Modernization and Commercialization of agriculture
 Scientific land-use policy
 Containing inflation rate within desired limit
 Increase investment bearing capacity
 Reconstruction of earthquake damaged private buildings, schools,
health post, public buildings, cultural heritages and, physical and
social infrastructures
Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of
B. Socio-Economic Dimension
Employment Trends
Employment
Trends
Rural
Migration
Shift from
Traditional
Occupations
Fair
Treatment
New
Employment
Opportunities
Increase in
Skilled
Manpower
Increase in
Foreign
Employment
Labor Market Issues
A slight decline in Labor forces
Prevalence of Child Labor
High Dependency on informal Sector
Low Labor Productivity
Higher number of women in the Labor
Migration for Foreign Employment
Increase in Unemployment rate
Employment dominated by Agricultural Sector
Youth Unemployment Rate
3.493
3.153
4.179
5.297
4.061
5.436
4.928
4.914
5.141
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: World Bank, Youth Unemployment Rate for Nepal
Trends in obtaining labor permits (‘000)
Source: Labor Migration for Employment 2014/15, Ministry of Labor and Employment
423.1
490.5
478.2
27.76
29.12
21.42
450.86
519.62
499.62
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Total Female Male
Top-destination countries for foreign employment, 2008/09–
2014/15 (in %)
33.34
1918.93
9.82
2.46
1.3
0.86
0.59
0.25 0.23
13.22
Malaysia
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Kuwait
Republic of Korea
Source: Labor Migration for Employment 2014/15, Ministry of Labor and Employment
Migration Trend
Description
Nepal Living Standards Survey
2003/04 2010/11
Percent of migrant population
Both sexes 36.6 36.9
Males 50.1 36.1
Females 21.6 37.5
Percent of migrants from rural areas 81.5 81.2
Percent of migrants from urban areas 5.8 7
Percent of migrants from other countries 12.7 11.8
Reason for migration
Family reason 75.2 79.4
Education/training 2.6 4.8
Looking for job 6.8 3.5
Easier life style 11.6 7
Other reasons 3.8 4.2
Source: Nepal Living Standard Survey 2010/11, Central Bureau of Statistics
C. Industrial and Agricultural Dimensions
I. Industrial Dimension
II. Agricultural Dimension
I. Industrial Dimension
• Performance of Industrial Sector
• Issues and Challenges of Industrial Sector
1.5
3.9
54.821.2
0.4
10.8
7.3
Total Capital Contribution in %
(out of total Rs. 1084210.4 million)
(by mid-February 2014/15)
Agro-based
Construction
Energy
Production Oriented
Mining
Service
Tourism
Source: Department of Industry
6.4
0.6
5.2
55.7
1.2
20.8
10
Employment Generation (in%)
(by mid-February 2014/15)
Agro-based
Construction
Energy
Production Oriented
Mining
Service
Tourism
Source: Department of Industry
95
98
105 106
99
110
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
estimated
Contribution to GDP (Rs. in Billion)
Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
Issues and Challenges of Industrial Sector in Nepal
Lack of Energy
Labor Regulations and Labor Unions
Lack of Physical Infrastructures
Low Capacity Utilization
Lack of Security
Weak Technology
Political Instability
II. Agricultural Dimension
• Performance of Agriculture Sector
• Issues and Challenges of Agriculture Sector
227
230
241
243 243
256
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
250
255
260
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
estimated
Contribution to GDP (Rs. in Billion)
Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
Status of Imports and Exports of Agro-Products
During the eight months of fiscal year 2015/16, the
export of food items and animal products has dropped by
25.3% to Rs. 9.38 billion.
Likewise, food and animal products worth Rs. 62.30
billion were imported during the first eight months of
2014/15.
Import during the first eight months of the fiscal year
2015/16 is estimated to fall by 13.9% to Rs. 435.8 billion
as compared to that of previous fiscal year.
Issues and Challenges of Agricultural Sector in Nepal
Governance
Productivity
Commercialization
Competitiveness
Farmer’s Right
D. Economic Development Dimension
I. Economic Development Plans
• 14th Three year Economic Plan, 2016/17-2018/19
I. Industrial Policy 2011
II. Trade Policy 2015
III. Privatization Policy
IV. Tourism Policy 2008
V. Monetary Policy 2016/17
I. Economic Development Plans
1st Five Year Plan (1955-1960)
 Main objective: to increase production and maximize employment
opportunities
 Total Expenditure: Rs. 210 million
2nd Three Year Plan (1962-1965)
 Main objective: to increase production and maximize employment
opportunities
 Total Expenditure: Rs. 615 million
 Top priority to transportation and communication with 39% of
budget expenditure
4th Five Year Plan (1970-1975)
 Major objective: to increase production establish economic
infrastructures, expansion and diversification of foreign trade
 Proposed Expenditure: more than Rs. 3.3 billion
3rd Five Year Plan (1965-1970)
 Main objective: to increase agriculture production, develop basic
infrastructure and develop industrial sector and foreign trade
 Total Expenditure: Rs. 1.6 billion
6th Five Year Plan (1980-1985)
 Total Expenditure: more than Rs. 22 billion
 Top priority was given to agriculture
7th Five Year Plan (1985-1990)
 Proposed Expenditure: Rs. 29 billion
 Encouraged private sector participation in the economy
5th Five Year Plan (1975-1980)
 Proposed Expenditure: more than Rs. 8.8 billion
 Problem of poverty addressed for the first time
 Top priority was given to agriculture development
8th Five Year Plan (1992-1997)
 First plan after restoration of democracy
 Main objective: to obtain sustainable development
9th Five Year Plan (1997-2002)
 Main objective: poverty alleviation, economic and social
empowerment of the people
10th Five Year Plan (2002-2007)
 Main objective: poverty alleviation
12th Three Year Plan (2010-2013)
 Main objective: to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality
11th Three Year Plan (2007-2010)
 Main objective: poverty alleviation, establishment of sustainable
peace through employment centric, inclusive and equitable
economic growth
 Main objective: to upgrade Nepal from least developed to
developing country
 Focused on sustainable development and human rights
13th three Year Plan (2013-2016)
14th Three year Economic Plan,
2016/17-2018/19
Vision
• Independent, prosperous and socialism oriented national economy
and prosperous Nepalese
Goal
• To reach the level of middle income country by being welfare state
with social justice
Strategy
 Increase output through transformation of agriculture sector and
expansion of tourism, industries as well as small businesses
 Building infrastructures for the development of energy, road and
air transportation, Information and communication
 Promote high and sustainable human development by emphasizing
social development and security
 Promote good governance by economic, social and governance
reforms
 Gender Equality, inclusiveness, environmental, protection, utmost
utilization of science and technology and enhancement of
institutional capacity
Principal Economic, Social and Physical Target
Indicators
Position at
2016/17
Target of 14th
Plan 2018/19
Annual growth rate (%) 0.77 7.2
Agriculture Sector (%) 1.33 4.7
Non-agriculture sector (%) 0.63 8.4
Per Capita GDP (Rs. in thousand) 79.37 116.5
Population below poverty line (%) 21.6 17
HDI 0.54 0.57
Gender empowerment index 0.56 0.58
Life expectancy (years) 69 72
II. Industrial policy 2011
Objectives
 To increase export of industrial products along with growth in national
income and employment
 To increase contribution of industrial sector in the balanced national and
regional development
 To establish industrial entrepreneurship as a sustainable and reliable
sector
 To create strong basis of investment having developed productive human
resources and managerial capacity required for industrial development
 To protect industrial intellectual property rights.
Vision
 To make remarkable contribution in national economy through sustainable
and broad-based industrial development in an effective, coordinated and
collaborative partnership of public, private and cooperative sectors thereby to
support poverty alleviation.
Major Policies
 Assistance shall be provided to increase export of industrial
 Priority shall be accorded to develop or acquire new technology at national and
industrial unit levels
 The no pay for no work principle shall be followed as provided by the labor law
 Additional facilities and concession shall be made available as incentives to export-
oriented industries, industries established in Special Economic Zone
 Technical and financial assistance shall be made available to the industries that use
environment-friendly and energy saving technology on their own costs
 capacity enhancement activities for development of industrial skills and
entrepreneurship and sound industrial management shall be launched as a campaign
 Effective body shall be established for protection of industrial intellectual property rights
 District entrepreneurship development plan shall be prepared in coordination with
District Development Committee/ Municipality/Village Development Committee
III. Trade policy 2015
Long-term Vision
 Achieve economic prosperity by enhancing commerce sector’s
contribution to national economy through export promotion.
Goal
 To achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth through
export promotion
Objectives
 To enhance supply related capacity, reduce trade deficit by
increasing exports of value added and competitive goods and
services
 To increase access of goods, services and intellectual property to the
regional and global markets
Strategies
 Government shall play the role of co-Ordinator, facilitator and
regulator to enhance active participation of the private sector.
 Enhance competitive capacity of the products of comparative and
competitive advantage for export promotion.
 Reduce trade deficit by strengthening supply-side capacity.
 Enhance the competitive capacity of exportable service sectors.
 Reduce transaction cost through trade facilitation and institutional
strengthening.
 Mainstream trade in order to establish it as a major component of
economy.
 Increase access of Nepalese products to world market by
promoting and protecting trade related intellectual property
rights.
IV. Privatization Policy 2008
2. Powers, Functions and Duties of the committee
 To recommend, programs and priorities of privatization, to the Government of
Nepal in view of suggestions contained in the Finance Committee (House of
representatives) Report.
 To conduct study or research in order to formulate privatization programs .
 To require evaluation of the enterprise and to recommend Government of Nepal
on the process of privatization;
 To co-ordinate and remove hindrances faced in the cause of privatization
process .
 To follow-up the decisions and agreements relating to privatization and cause
to do so;
 To constitute sub-committees, as may be necessary, in respect of privatization;
and
 To perform or require to be performed other works, if necessary, in respect of
privatization
1. Formation of Privatization Committee
 formed to manage the privatization of enterprises
3. Determination of Privatization Process
 By sale of shares of the enterprise to the general public, employees,
workers, and any person or company, interested in the management of
such enterprise.
 By formation of cooperatives;
 By selling assets of the enterprise;
 By leasing out the assets of the enterprise;
 By involving private sector in the management of the enterprise; and
 By adopting any other modality considered appropriate by Government
of Nepal on the basis of the recommendation of the Committee.
V. Monetary Policy 2016/17
Economic and Monetary Targets
 Containing annual average CPI Inflation at 7.5%
 Maintaining foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover the
imports of goods and services at least for 8 months.
 Geared to facilitating the economic growth rate of 6.5%.
 Broad money, is projected to increase by 17%
 Target of internal credit growth rate of 25%
 Private sector credit projected to grow by 20%.
Major Highlights
 The interest rate in case of refinance of loan to agriculture business
including electricity and other productive sectors has been maintained at 4%
 Traders importing goods via third-countries using instrument like draft and
telex transfer to be extended foreign exchange facility of upto $50000 for
one-time payment
 Ceiling on consortium financing raised to Rs. 1 bn from existing Rs. 500 mn.
 Commercial banks directed to channel 15% of total loans towards
agriculture and energy sectors from 12%
 Over Rs. 3 million of financial transactions to be conducted through
Cheques, previous ceiling stood at Rs. 5 million.
 Microfinance development banks directed to raise minimum paid-up capital
to Rs. 600 Million within mid-July ,2018
VI. Tourism Policy 2008
Objectives
 To develop tourism as the main basis of national economy
 To develop Nepal as an attractive and main tourist destination
 To develop, expand and promote tourism through easy, safe,
reliable and regular air and land transport
 To make sustainable use of natural resources with environment
protection in the process of developing and constructing tourism
infrastructures
Vision
 To develop Nepal as an attractive, charming and safe destination on
the world map through protection and promotion of its natural,
cultural, biological and man-made heritage.
Major Policies
 Promote tourism industry by formulating a master plan based on
regional development concept
 Develop rural tourism as sub-sector of tourism business
 Air services will be made safe and reliable
 The role of private sector will be encouraged for tourism
development
 Human resource development and management programs will be
conducted for the growth of tourism sector in co-ordination to
private sector
 Modern IT will be used for market-orientation in tourism
 Facilities and incentives will be given to establish tourism as a basic
industry
Source: NEPAL TOURISM STATISTICS 2016, Ministry of Culture, Tourism & Civil Aviation
407412
131558
572563
180439
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Air Land
Tourist Arrival
2015 2016
Liberalization of the Nepalese Economy
Internal Liberalization in Nepal
 Financial sector reforms:
 Banking sector opened for foreign investment
 Commercial Banks allowed to accept current and fixed deposits in foreign currency
 Enactment of NRB Act 2002, Debt Recover Act 2002 and Banking and Financial
Institution Act 2006
 Fiscal reforms:
 Introduction of VAT, export duty drawback and bonded warehouse
 Private sector allowed to borrow money from foreign sources
 Monetary Policy
 Deregulation of interest rate policy, foreign exchange determination policy’
 Privatization of public owned enterprises
 Introduction to One window policy
 Reducing subsidies provided to different sector of the economy
 Foreigners allowed to invest in the stock exchange
External Liberalization
 Reforms in trade sector:
 Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) policy to export led economic growth strategy
 Promoted by the Industrial Act 1992 and Foreign Investment and Technology Transfer Act 1992
 Reforms in foreign exchange:
 Current account reform
• From 1993, foreign exchange made fully convertible
• Foreign exchange market converted to floating system but still pegged with Indian currency
• Commercial bank allowed to keep their balance abroad
 Capital Account reform
• Effective from 1991, Nepalese working international agencies based in Nepal can keep their
account in convertible currencies if they receive salary in such currency.
• Nepalese working abroad can keep their account in convertible currency in local bank.
• Commercial Banks can provide loan to exporters (related to trade finance) in foreign
exchange and central bank started to refinance area to commercial bank in US currency
from 1998.
Capital Market Reforms
History
 Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) was established by the GoN on June
7, 1993 that has been regulating market under Securities Act 2006.
 Securities Market began with the floatation of shares by Biratnagar
Jute Mills Ltd. and Nepal Bank Ltd. In 1937.
 Introduction of Company Act in 1964, the first issuance of
Government Bond in 1964 and the establishment of securities
Exchange Center Ltd in 1976
 Securities Exchange Center converted into Nepal Stock Exchange in
1993
 NEPSE opened its trading floor on 12th January 1994.
Capital Market Reforms in Nepal
 Foreigners allowed to invest in the stock exchange
 15% income tax exemption for firms that issues shares to public
 No any regulatory intervention in pricing of IPO
 International financial institutions allowed to issue local currency
 Develop a compatible system for cross-border trading to bring
investment from foreign institutional investors and non-resident
Nepalese
Factors Contributing to Competitive Business
Environment in Nepal
Integration to the world economy
Increased private investment in core businesses
Rise of financial institutions
Changing market place scenario
Increase in FDI
Development of capital Market
Changing role in FDI
Rise of Multinationals
Use of modern technologies
Growing Urban population
Macroeconomic environment of Nepal 2017

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Macroeconomic environment of Nepal 2017

  • 1. Macro-economic Environment of Nepal 2017 By: Upama Rai 9th August, 2017
  • 2. Dimensions of an Economy  GDP,  income distribution,  Poverty Level,  Personal consumption,  Saving, debt and credit availability,  Budget position,  Inflation, Interest rate,  Fiscal and Monetary policy  Development policies and strategies,  Allocation of resources  Potentials to supply goods,  Service to the consumers and  Raw materials to industrial units  Size,  Distribution,  Density,  Growth,  Age and gender mix,  Urbanization and  Migration of population Economic Dimension Economic Development DimensionIndustrial and Agricultural Dimension Socio-Economic Environment
  • 4. 615 638 674 694 694 743 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 GDP (RS. IN BILLION) Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
  • 5. -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (Estimated) Annual % changes in GDP Real GDP at basic price Agriculture Industry Service Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of
  • 6. GDP by Sector (in % at Basic Price) 33.2 32.2 30 14.3 13.6 14 52.5 54.2 56 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 (Estimated) Primary Secondary Tertiary Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
  • 7. 42 31 30.9 24.7 25.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1995 2003 2004 2008 2011 Population below poverty (%) Source: The World Bank
  • 8. Major Problems and Challenges facing Nepalese Economy  Economic Development at the federal, provincial and local levels with federal governance system  Challenge of increasing domestic production  Reducing dependency to foreign employment and foreign aid  Modernization and Commercialization of agriculture  Scientific land-use policy  Containing inflation rate within desired limit  Increase investment bearing capacity  Reconstruction of earthquake damaged private buildings, schools, health post, public buildings, cultural heritages and, physical and social infrastructures Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of
  • 11. Labor Market Issues A slight decline in Labor forces Prevalence of Child Labor High Dependency on informal Sector Low Labor Productivity Higher number of women in the Labor Migration for Foreign Employment Increase in Unemployment rate Employment dominated by Agricultural Sector
  • 12. Youth Unemployment Rate 3.493 3.153 4.179 5.297 4.061 5.436 4.928 4.914 5.141 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: World Bank, Youth Unemployment Rate for Nepal
  • 13. Trends in obtaining labor permits (‘000) Source: Labor Migration for Employment 2014/15, Ministry of Labor and Employment 423.1 490.5 478.2 27.76 29.12 21.42 450.86 519.62 499.62 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Total Female Male
  • 14. Top-destination countries for foreign employment, 2008/09– 2014/15 (in %) 33.34 1918.93 9.82 2.46 1.3 0.86 0.59 0.25 0.23 13.22 Malaysia Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Republic of Korea Source: Labor Migration for Employment 2014/15, Ministry of Labor and Employment
  • 15. Migration Trend Description Nepal Living Standards Survey 2003/04 2010/11 Percent of migrant population Both sexes 36.6 36.9 Males 50.1 36.1 Females 21.6 37.5 Percent of migrants from rural areas 81.5 81.2 Percent of migrants from urban areas 5.8 7 Percent of migrants from other countries 12.7 11.8 Reason for migration Family reason 75.2 79.4 Education/training 2.6 4.8 Looking for job 6.8 3.5 Easier life style 11.6 7 Other reasons 3.8 4.2 Source: Nepal Living Standard Survey 2010/11, Central Bureau of Statistics
  • 16. C. Industrial and Agricultural Dimensions I. Industrial Dimension II. Agricultural Dimension
  • 17. I. Industrial Dimension • Performance of Industrial Sector • Issues and Challenges of Industrial Sector
  • 18. 1.5 3.9 54.821.2 0.4 10.8 7.3 Total Capital Contribution in % (out of total Rs. 1084210.4 million) (by mid-February 2014/15) Agro-based Construction Energy Production Oriented Mining Service Tourism Source: Department of Industry
  • 19. 6.4 0.6 5.2 55.7 1.2 20.8 10 Employment Generation (in%) (by mid-February 2014/15) Agro-based Construction Energy Production Oriented Mining Service Tourism Source: Department of Industry
  • 20. 95 98 105 106 99 110 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 estimated Contribution to GDP (Rs. in Billion) Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
  • 21. Issues and Challenges of Industrial Sector in Nepal Lack of Energy Labor Regulations and Labor Unions Lack of Physical Infrastructures Low Capacity Utilization Lack of Security Weak Technology Political Instability
  • 22. II. Agricultural Dimension • Performance of Agriculture Sector • Issues and Challenges of Agriculture Sector
  • 23. 227 230 241 243 243 256 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 estimated Contribution to GDP (Rs. in Billion) Source: Economic Survey 2016/17, Ministry of Finance
  • 24. Status of Imports and Exports of Agro-Products During the eight months of fiscal year 2015/16, the export of food items and animal products has dropped by 25.3% to Rs. 9.38 billion. Likewise, food and animal products worth Rs. 62.30 billion were imported during the first eight months of 2014/15. Import during the first eight months of the fiscal year 2015/16 is estimated to fall by 13.9% to Rs. 435.8 billion as compared to that of previous fiscal year.
  • 25. Issues and Challenges of Agricultural Sector in Nepal Governance Productivity Commercialization Competitiveness Farmer’s Right
  • 26. D. Economic Development Dimension I. Economic Development Plans • 14th Three year Economic Plan, 2016/17-2018/19 I. Industrial Policy 2011 II. Trade Policy 2015 III. Privatization Policy IV. Tourism Policy 2008 V. Monetary Policy 2016/17
  • 28. 1st Five Year Plan (1955-1960)  Main objective: to increase production and maximize employment opportunities  Total Expenditure: Rs. 210 million 2nd Three Year Plan (1962-1965)  Main objective: to increase production and maximize employment opportunities  Total Expenditure: Rs. 615 million  Top priority to transportation and communication with 39% of budget expenditure
  • 29. 4th Five Year Plan (1970-1975)  Major objective: to increase production establish economic infrastructures, expansion and diversification of foreign trade  Proposed Expenditure: more than Rs. 3.3 billion 3rd Five Year Plan (1965-1970)  Main objective: to increase agriculture production, develop basic infrastructure and develop industrial sector and foreign trade  Total Expenditure: Rs. 1.6 billion
  • 30. 6th Five Year Plan (1980-1985)  Total Expenditure: more than Rs. 22 billion  Top priority was given to agriculture 7th Five Year Plan (1985-1990)  Proposed Expenditure: Rs. 29 billion  Encouraged private sector participation in the economy 5th Five Year Plan (1975-1980)  Proposed Expenditure: more than Rs. 8.8 billion  Problem of poverty addressed for the first time  Top priority was given to agriculture development
  • 31. 8th Five Year Plan (1992-1997)  First plan after restoration of democracy  Main objective: to obtain sustainable development 9th Five Year Plan (1997-2002)  Main objective: poverty alleviation, economic and social empowerment of the people 10th Five Year Plan (2002-2007)  Main objective: poverty alleviation
  • 32. 12th Three Year Plan (2010-2013)  Main objective: to reduce unemployment, poverty and inequality 11th Three Year Plan (2007-2010)  Main objective: poverty alleviation, establishment of sustainable peace through employment centric, inclusive and equitable economic growth  Main objective: to upgrade Nepal from least developed to developing country  Focused on sustainable development and human rights 13th three Year Plan (2013-2016)
  • 33. 14th Three year Economic Plan, 2016/17-2018/19 Vision • Independent, prosperous and socialism oriented national economy and prosperous Nepalese Goal • To reach the level of middle income country by being welfare state with social justice
  • 34. Strategy  Increase output through transformation of agriculture sector and expansion of tourism, industries as well as small businesses  Building infrastructures for the development of energy, road and air transportation, Information and communication  Promote high and sustainable human development by emphasizing social development and security  Promote good governance by economic, social and governance reforms  Gender Equality, inclusiveness, environmental, protection, utmost utilization of science and technology and enhancement of institutional capacity
  • 35. Principal Economic, Social and Physical Target Indicators Position at 2016/17 Target of 14th Plan 2018/19 Annual growth rate (%) 0.77 7.2 Agriculture Sector (%) 1.33 4.7 Non-agriculture sector (%) 0.63 8.4 Per Capita GDP (Rs. in thousand) 79.37 116.5 Population below poverty line (%) 21.6 17 HDI 0.54 0.57 Gender empowerment index 0.56 0.58 Life expectancy (years) 69 72
  • 37. Objectives  To increase export of industrial products along with growth in national income and employment  To increase contribution of industrial sector in the balanced national and regional development  To establish industrial entrepreneurship as a sustainable and reliable sector  To create strong basis of investment having developed productive human resources and managerial capacity required for industrial development  To protect industrial intellectual property rights. Vision  To make remarkable contribution in national economy through sustainable and broad-based industrial development in an effective, coordinated and collaborative partnership of public, private and cooperative sectors thereby to support poverty alleviation.
  • 38. Major Policies  Assistance shall be provided to increase export of industrial  Priority shall be accorded to develop or acquire new technology at national and industrial unit levels  The no pay for no work principle shall be followed as provided by the labor law  Additional facilities and concession shall be made available as incentives to export- oriented industries, industries established in Special Economic Zone  Technical and financial assistance shall be made available to the industries that use environment-friendly and energy saving technology on their own costs  capacity enhancement activities for development of industrial skills and entrepreneurship and sound industrial management shall be launched as a campaign  Effective body shall be established for protection of industrial intellectual property rights  District entrepreneurship development plan shall be prepared in coordination with District Development Committee/ Municipality/Village Development Committee
  • 40. Long-term Vision  Achieve economic prosperity by enhancing commerce sector’s contribution to national economy through export promotion. Goal  To achieve inclusive and sustainable economic growth through export promotion Objectives  To enhance supply related capacity, reduce trade deficit by increasing exports of value added and competitive goods and services  To increase access of goods, services and intellectual property to the regional and global markets
  • 41. Strategies  Government shall play the role of co-Ordinator, facilitator and regulator to enhance active participation of the private sector.  Enhance competitive capacity of the products of comparative and competitive advantage for export promotion.  Reduce trade deficit by strengthening supply-side capacity.  Enhance the competitive capacity of exportable service sectors.  Reduce transaction cost through trade facilitation and institutional strengthening.  Mainstream trade in order to establish it as a major component of economy.  Increase access of Nepalese products to world market by promoting and protecting trade related intellectual property rights.
  • 43. 2. Powers, Functions and Duties of the committee  To recommend, programs and priorities of privatization, to the Government of Nepal in view of suggestions contained in the Finance Committee (House of representatives) Report.  To conduct study or research in order to formulate privatization programs .  To require evaluation of the enterprise and to recommend Government of Nepal on the process of privatization;  To co-ordinate and remove hindrances faced in the cause of privatization process .  To follow-up the decisions and agreements relating to privatization and cause to do so;  To constitute sub-committees, as may be necessary, in respect of privatization; and  To perform or require to be performed other works, if necessary, in respect of privatization 1. Formation of Privatization Committee  formed to manage the privatization of enterprises
  • 44. 3. Determination of Privatization Process  By sale of shares of the enterprise to the general public, employees, workers, and any person or company, interested in the management of such enterprise.  By formation of cooperatives;  By selling assets of the enterprise;  By leasing out the assets of the enterprise;  By involving private sector in the management of the enterprise; and  By adopting any other modality considered appropriate by Government of Nepal on the basis of the recommendation of the Committee.
  • 46. Economic and Monetary Targets  Containing annual average CPI Inflation at 7.5%  Maintaining foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover the imports of goods and services at least for 8 months.  Geared to facilitating the economic growth rate of 6.5%.  Broad money, is projected to increase by 17%  Target of internal credit growth rate of 25%  Private sector credit projected to grow by 20%.
  • 47. Major Highlights  The interest rate in case of refinance of loan to agriculture business including electricity and other productive sectors has been maintained at 4%  Traders importing goods via third-countries using instrument like draft and telex transfer to be extended foreign exchange facility of upto $50000 for one-time payment  Ceiling on consortium financing raised to Rs. 1 bn from existing Rs. 500 mn.  Commercial banks directed to channel 15% of total loans towards agriculture and energy sectors from 12%  Over Rs. 3 million of financial transactions to be conducted through Cheques, previous ceiling stood at Rs. 5 million.  Microfinance development banks directed to raise minimum paid-up capital to Rs. 600 Million within mid-July ,2018
  • 49. Objectives  To develop tourism as the main basis of national economy  To develop Nepal as an attractive and main tourist destination  To develop, expand and promote tourism through easy, safe, reliable and regular air and land transport  To make sustainable use of natural resources with environment protection in the process of developing and constructing tourism infrastructures Vision  To develop Nepal as an attractive, charming and safe destination on the world map through protection and promotion of its natural, cultural, biological and man-made heritage.
  • 50. Major Policies  Promote tourism industry by formulating a master plan based on regional development concept  Develop rural tourism as sub-sector of tourism business  Air services will be made safe and reliable  The role of private sector will be encouraged for tourism development  Human resource development and management programs will be conducted for the growth of tourism sector in co-ordination to private sector  Modern IT will be used for market-orientation in tourism  Facilities and incentives will be given to establish tourism as a basic industry
  • 51. Source: NEPAL TOURISM STATISTICS 2016, Ministry of Culture, Tourism & Civil Aviation 407412 131558 572563 180439 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 Air Land Tourist Arrival 2015 2016
  • 52. Liberalization of the Nepalese Economy
  • 53. Internal Liberalization in Nepal  Financial sector reforms:  Banking sector opened for foreign investment  Commercial Banks allowed to accept current and fixed deposits in foreign currency  Enactment of NRB Act 2002, Debt Recover Act 2002 and Banking and Financial Institution Act 2006  Fiscal reforms:  Introduction of VAT, export duty drawback and bonded warehouse  Private sector allowed to borrow money from foreign sources  Monetary Policy  Deregulation of interest rate policy, foreign exchange determination policy’  Privatization of public owned enterprises  Introduction to One window policy  Reducing subsidies provided to different sector of the economy  Foreigners allowed to invest in the stock exchange
  • 54. External Liberalization  Reforms in trade sector:  Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) policy to export led economic growth strategy  Promoted by the Industrial Act 1992 and Foreign Investment and Technology Transfer Act 1992  Reforms in foreign exchange:  Current account reform • From 1993, foreign exchange made fully convertible • Foreign exchange market converted to floating system but still pegged with Indian currency • Commercial bank allowed to keep their balance abroad  Capital Account reform • Effective from 1991, Nepalese working international agencies based in Nepal can keep their account in convertible currencies if they receive salary in such currency. • Nepalese working abroad can keep their account in convertible currency in local bank. • Commercial Banks can provide loan to exporters (related to trade finance) in foreign exchange and central bank started to refinance area to commercial bank in US currency from 1998.
  • 56. History  Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) was established by the GoN on June 7, 1993 that has been regulating market under Securities Act 2006.  Securities Market began with the floatation of shares by Biratnagar Jute Mills Ltd. and Nepal Bank Ltd. In 1937.  Introduction of Company Act in 1964, the first issuance of Government Bond in 1964 and the establishment of securities Exchange Center Ltd in 1976  Securities Exchange Center converted into Nepal Stock Exchange in 1993  NEPSE opened its trading floor on 12th January 1994.
  • 57. Capital Market Reforms in Nepal  Foreigners allowed to invest in the stock exchange  15% income tax exemption for firms that issues shares to public  No any regulatory intervention in pricing of IPO  International financial institutions allowed to issue local currency  Develop a compatible system for cross-border trading to bring investment from foreign institutional investors and non-resident Nepalese
  • 58. Factors Contributing to Competitive Business Environment in Nepal Integration to the world economy Increased private investment in core businesses Rise of financial institutions Changing market place scenario Increase in FDI Development of capital Market Changing role in FDI Rise of Multinationals Use of modern technologies Growing Urban population

Editor's Notes

  • #6: 1. Growth in GDP in fiscal year 2013/14 by 5.72%, then increase in a diminishing rate. 2. Economic activities have expanded due to favorable monsoon, increase in capital expenditure, energy management, and improvement in investment environment including overall supply situation. As a result, gross domestic product (GDP) at basic price is estimated to grow by 6.94 percent in the current fiscal year. 3. This growth rate is the highest since FY 1993/94. Such growth rate was 0.01 percent in the previous fiscal year due to high fall in agricultural and industrial sector by 0.01% and 6.45% respectively. The economy that contracted due to the earthquake and disruption in border points is in the stage of recovery and expansion. 4. Agriculture and non-agriculture sectors are estimated to grow by 5.29 percent and 7.74 percent respectively in FY 2016/17. Such growth rates were 0.03 percent and 0.16 percent in the previous fiscal year. 5. Likewise, service sector and industrial sector are estimated to grow by 6.9 percent and 10.97 percent respectively in the current fiscal year.  
  • #7: 1. Primary sector includes activities of the agriculture and forestry and fishery 2. Industry Sector: Mining and Quarrying Sector, Manufacturing Industry, Construction Sector 3. Service Sector: Wholesale and Retail Trade Transport, Communication and Warehousing, Financial Mediation, Real Estate and Business Services, Public Administration and Defense, Education Sector, Hotel and Restaurants, Health Sector and Other Community, Social and Personal Services 4. Nepalese economy is in the stage of structural transformation as the share of service sector is increasing while that of agriculture sector is decreasing. 5. In the fiscal year 2016/17, the share of primary sector has been estimated to decrease to 30% and the secondary sector is estimated to rise to 14%. Similarly, the share of service sector is also estimated to rise to 56% of the total GDP.  
  • #9: 1. There is a challenging task of economic development including macroeconomic stability by creating the foundation for the mobilization of resources as well as the availability, assurance and equitable distribution of the means and resources at the federal, provincial and local levels in line with federal governance system.   2. There remains a challenge of increasing domestic production through industrial infrastructure, decent labor relation, energy availability and the production of quality products.   3. It is a challenging task to reduce dependency on foreign employment and foreign aid by creating employment opportunities at home and reaping demographic dividend by developing human resources as per the national needs and demand.   4. Modernization and commercialization of agriculture by increasing production and productivity through an adequate arrangement of agricultural inputs such as improved seeds, fertilizers, irrigation, agricultural credit, technology, and skilled human resource is a challenging task.   5. Formulating strategies and work plans of scientific land-use policy and managing land effectively by resolving problems of uncontrolled land use and encroachment (violation) of public land have been daunting tasks.   6. There remains a challenge of containing inflation rate within desired limit by effectively managing supply through market monitoring and price information system as well as managing of the storage and distribution system of all the goods including petroleum products.   7. It is challenging to increase investment bearing capacity in line with sustainable fiscal structure and resource mobilization for the implementation of state policies and fundamental rights envisoned in constitution.   8. Timely completion of reconstruction works by ensuring budget for the development of modern settlement and the reconstruction of earthquake damaged private buildings, schools, health post, public buildings, cultural heritages and, physical and social infrastructures has been a challenge.
  • #19: Types of Industries Total Capital Contribution in % (out of total Rs. 1084210.4 million) Agro-based 1.5 Construction 3.9 Energy 54.8 Production Oriented 21.2 Mining 0.4 Service 10.8 Tourism 7.3
  • #20: Types of Industries Employment Generation (in%) Agro-based 6.4 Construction 0.6 Energy 5.2 Production Oriented 55.7 Mining 1.2 Service 20.8 Tourism 10
  • #47: Monetary Policy for 2016/17 aims at containing annual average CPI Inflation at 7.5 % and maintaining foreign exchange reserves sufficient to cover the imports of goods and services at least for 8 months. Likewise, the monetary policy is geared to facilitating the economic growth rate of 6.5%. In the line with the above mentioned economic target, the broad money, as an intermediate target of monetary policy, is projected to increase by 17% in 2016/17. The monetary policy set the target of internal credit growth rate of 25 percent and the private sector credit is projected to grow by 20 percent. (The money supply is the totality of assets that households and businesses can use to make payments or to hold as short-term investments, such as currency, funds in bank accounts and anything of value resembling money. measure of the money supply that includes more than just physical money such as currency and coins (also known as narrow money). It generally includes demand deposits at commercial banks, and any monies held in easily accessible accounts.) CPI=A consumer price index measures changes in the price level of market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and, consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling.
  • #48: The interest rate in case of refinance of loan to agriculture business including electricity and other productive sectors has been maintained at 4 % Traders importing goods via third-countries using instrument like draft and telex transfer to be extended foreign exchange facility of upto $50000 for one-time payment Ceiling on consortium financing raised to Rs. 1 bn form existing Rs. 500 mn. (A group of companies that cooperate and share resources in order to achieve a common objective, not a merger and the companies remain independent.) Commercial banks directed to channel 15% of total loans towards agriculture and energy sectors from 12 percent Over Rs. 3 million of financial transactions to be conducted through Cheques, previous ceiling stood at Rs. 5 million. Microfinance development banks directed to raise minimum paid-up capital to Rs. 600 Million within mid-July ,2018
  • #52: year 2015 2016 % Change Air 407412 572563 41 Land 131558 180439 37 Total 538970 753002 40 Total Earning (US dollar '000,000) 497.83 518.49 11
  • #53: Economic Liberalization is the gradual process of lessening government regulations and restrictions in the economy. It advocates greater participation of the private sector in the economic activities. It involves combining the economy with the rest of the world. Goal is to maintain or increase economic competitiveness by encouraging private sector on a competititive basis by reducing government intereference. History: Implemented from 1990 with predominant emphasis on privatization and open market policies After the adoption of these policies, a new industrial policy was enacted in 1992 that gave priority to the promotion of export oriented industries May be viewed from 2 perspectives.
  • #54: Introduction to One window policy to provide quick and effective way the approvals, facilities and other administrative services to industries export duty drawback= the refund of duties, taxes, and fees imposed on imported merchandise which is subsequently exported. Bonded warehouse= a customs-controlled warehouse for the retention of imported goods until the duty owed is paid
  • #55: fully convertible = can be traded in all international foreign exchange market Refinance= refer to the replacement of an existing debt obligation with another debt
  • #56: Also called security market Refers to the part of a financial system concerned with raising capital by dealing in shares, bonds and other long-term investments Plays important roles in mobilizing savings and channels them into productive investments for the development of trade and industry Helps in capital formation and economic growth of a country
  • #57: Floatation= process of offering a company's shares for sale on the stock market for the first time.
  • #58: Foreigners allowed to invest in the stock exchange 15% income tax exemption for firms that issues shares to public No any regulatory intervention in pricing of IPO and price determined based on demand from investors and how much they desire to pay per unit share International financial institutions allowed to issue local currency Develop a compatible system for cross-border trading to bring investment from foreign institutional investors and non-resident Nepalese