Making a Difference in Your Student Retention - Identifying Analytic Trends for Student Success
2 likes236 views
The document discusses a presentation by CCG, a consulting firm, about using predictive modeling and data analytics to improve student retention rates at universities. It describes how retention modeling works by analyzing historical student data to identify characteristics that correlate with students dropping out and using that to build a model to predict which current students are at risk. The benefits mentioned include focusing retention efforts on at-risk students and adapting predictions as outcomes improve over time. The presentation demonstrates CCG's retention modeling solution and discusses the types of student data needed to build such a model.
Making a Difference in Your Student Retention - Identifying Analytic Trends for Student Success
- 1. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Making a Difference in Your Student Retention
- 2. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Solution Architect, CCG 10+ years of experience in EDU National data infrastructure for higher education systems Advisor for The Common Education Data Standards (CEDS) Meet Your Speakers Aaron Harte Education Lead & BDR, CCG Experienced leader of 20+ years President of ATD Former Sr. Director of Admissions & Enrollment for national universities Carolyn Eagen
- 3. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com
- 4. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Today’s Agenda Scope of the problem • Retention Rate in Higher Education Student Drop/Retention Analytics Solution Overview • What Is It? • How Does It Work? • What Do We Need? • How Long Does It Take? Expectations / Output Questions & Answers Next Steps
- 5. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com University Case Overview University consists of 18 colleges/schools offering over 175 programs of study with more than 250 majors Enrollment over 28k students Over 145,000 alumni Student Retention Created Office of Undergraduate Student Success (OUSS) to improve Student Retention 72.0% of students making it past their freshman year University has freshman retention rates similar to the national average of 69.4%
- 6. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Graduation Rate Benchmarks 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Open Admissions > 89.9% Accepted 75%-89.9% Accepted 50%-74.9% Accepted 25%-49.9% Accepted <25% Accepted 6 Year Graduation Rates By Acceptance Rates - 2013 4 Year Universities Test University 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2004-2010 2005-2011 2006-2012 2007-2013 6 Year Graduation Rates – Last 4 Years All 4 Year Universities Test University
- 7. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com
- 8. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Question: What If You Could Predict Your Students Success Rate? What would you do with the information? 1. Add new programs 2. Specialize first year academic track 3. Assign a mentor early on 4. Change your at risk student approach 5. Other
- 9. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Poll Results
- 10. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com University’s 1% Opportunity 0% 10% 20% 30% Attrition Existing Improved Every 1% Less In Attrition Nets 10 More Students As Sophomores Claws Back $269,100 In Lost Sophomore Tuition and Fees $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 Cash Back
- 11. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com University’s $7.5M Opportunity 28% Drop Out After Freshman Year Approximate Enrollment 5,100 Approximate Freshman Class (20%) 1,000 Attrition Rate 28% Attrition # 280 Average University Tuition $26,910 Sophomore Tuition Dollars Lost $7,534,800
- 12. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com DEMO
- 13. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Solution: Retention Model What’s a Retention Model? A predictive modeling technique that will forecast the likelihood of each student to drop.
- 14. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com How Does It Work? 1. Prepare student historical data for modeling Application, Financial, Academic, Completions, Exit Surveys 2. Determine how to identify in historical data a student who has dropped Academic Preparedness, Demographics, Ambivalence, Effort, Strategy, Academic Warning, Probation, Dismissals, Completions 3. Leverage statistics to determine how modeled student attributes correlate to dropping 4. Use those statistics to build a test model on historical data, that predicts which students will drop 5. Compare that model against what actually occurred to ensure accuracy 6. Iterate (steps 3-5) until margin of error is acceptable 7. Deploy model, and associated scores
- 15. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com What Do We Need? Historical Student Performance Cumulative Grade Point Average Last Semester Grade Point Average Course Drops Starting # of Credits Head of Household Status Originating School Program of Study Test Scores Gender Age Financial Aid Accounts Payable Status Postal Code of Physical Address Family Demographic Characteristics Ethnicity Academic Standing (AS)
- 16. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com How To Engage Elicit Prepare for elicitation Conduct elicitation Document in requirements draft Analyze Prioritize requirements and determine LOE Analyze with client and de-scope or update estimate Model Determine constraints, assumptions, risks, and dependencies Finalize requirements draft Verify and Validate Technical Leader Review Client Review Final Requirements Document with Approval Initiate Requirements Traceability Matrix
- 17. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Takeaways http://www.pesc.org/interior.php?page_id=173 https://ceds.ed.gov/domainEntitySchema.aspx http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/Home/UseTheData https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/ https://nscresearchcenter.org/snapshotreport-persistenceretention22/ http://www.publicinsightdata.com/#!insight-for-education-1/o30tb https://catalog.data.gov/dataset?groups=education2168#topic=education_navigation
- 18. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com
- 19. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com
- 20. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com
- 21. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Retention Modeling Benefits Benefit The “Jasmine Effect” Identify characteristics of students are at risk Alerts staff where to focus retention efforts Identify characteristics that most highly correlate to cohort success Your on-going efforts to identify student support programs Is not rules/intuition driven, and adapts as data changes As you improve outcomes, the predictions won’t be based on old conditions.
- 22. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com Focus On Value & Partnership People Onshore and not out-sourced, well-rounded, experienced Hybrid / Partnership approach to consulting & staffing & Projects Improve business processes, not building reports Process Unique methodology leveraging the best of yours, waterfall and agile Deploy solutions aligned with schools process improvement Mentor and increase client knowledge Passion Eat, sleep and breath BI & EIM & Student Success Problem solvers and innovators Technology leadership and commitment Partner Assessment, Vision, Roadmap We implement your unique roadmap Sustain momentum by serving as a trusted advisor
- 23. SEE FARTHER. GO FASTER. 2502 North Rocky Point Dr. Suite 650 | Tampa, FL 33607 | O: 813.968.3238 | www.ccgBI.com An award-winning consulting services firm specializing in delivering data and analytics solutions to increase campus performance and student success. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE: It’s Who We Are and What We Do. QUESTIONS?