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Making Progress in an Uncertain World 
Carolyn Limbert, Principal Planner, Harmonic Ltd, October 2014
Outline 
● The Realities of Delivery 
● The Landscape 
• Socio-Political 
• Structural 
• Emergent 
● Proactive Decision Management 
● 5 things to take away from the webinar
On Paper… 
Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997) 
Scope: WHAT 
Objectives are to be 
achieved 
Concept 
Mobilisation 
Delivery: HOW 
To implement objectives 
Low 
Uncertainty 
High 
Uncertainty 
Low 
Uncertainty 
Initiation 
Definition 
Closure 
Implementation
The Reality… 
Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997) 
Scope: WHAT 
Objectives are to be 
achieved 
Delivery: HOW 
To implement objectives 
Low 
Uncertainty 
High 
Mobilisation 
Definition 
Concept 
Uncertainty 
Low 
Uncertainty 
Closure 
Initiation
Complex Projects - Back to Basics 
New view on PM 
Performance 
Time Cost 
Performance 
Time Cost 
Context Financing 
(Strategic Highway Research Program, 2012) 
“The intrinsic complexity of projects, in part, is driven by political, social, 
technological and environmental issues, as well as tight fiscal pressures, end 
user expectations which may change dramatically during the life of a project, 
and government instability.” (ICCPM, 2012)
The Landscape 
Behaviours 
6 
Requirements 
What are the common 
challenges present in a complex 
project landscape? 
Funding / 
Finance 
Uncertainty Culture 
Assumptions Trades 
Change 
Length of Time 
Decision Making 
Optimism 
Unrealistic 
Solutions 
Lack of 
Maturity 
Geography 
Systems of 
Interests 
Regulatory 
Organisational 
Capability 
Ambiguity 
Risk Stakeholders Dependencies 
Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
Socio-Political Complexity 
Behaviours 
7 
Requirements 
What are the common 
challenges present in a complex 
project landscape? 
Funding / 
Finance 
Uncertainty Culture 
Assumptions Trades 
Change 
Length of Time 
Decision Making 
Optimism 
Unrealistic 
Solutions 
Lack of 
Maturity 
Geography 
Systems of 
Interests 
Regulatory 
Organisational 
Capability 
Ambiguity 
Risk Stakeholders Dependencies 
Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
Perception
Structural Complexity 
Behaviours 
9 
Requirements 
What are the common 
challenges present in a complex 
project landscape? 
Funding / 
Finance 
Uncertainty Culture 
Assumptions Trades 
Change 
Length of Time 
Decision Making 
Optimism 
Unrealistic 
Solutions 
Lack of 
Maturity 
Geography 
Systems of 
Interests 
Regulatory 
Organisational 
Capability 
Ambiguity 
Risk Stakeholders Dependencies 
Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
Systems Thinking 
System Engineering 
Enterprise Processes 
Enterprise Environment 
Management 
Investment 
Management 
System Life Cycle 
Process Management 
Resource Management 
Quality Management 
Project Processes 
Planning Assessment Control 
Decision 
Making 
Risk 
Management 
Configuration 
Management 
Information 
Management 
Technical Processes 
Stakeholder 
Requirements 
Definition 
Requirements 
Analysis 
Architectural 
Design 
Implementation Integration 
Verification Transition Validation 
Operation Maintenance 
Disposal 
Agreement Processes 
Enterprise Environment 
Management 
Investment 
Management 
Process 
Guidelines
Systems Thinking 
● You cannot optimise a system by separately optimising its 
components 
● Focus on defining customer needs and required functionality 
early in the development cycle 
● Understand the whole problem before you try to solve it
Requirements Prioritisation 
Agile DSDM – MoSCoW Prioritisation 
Must 
have 
•The Project cannot deliver on the target date without this 
•There is no point deploying the solution without this requirement 
• The solution will not be legal / safe / fit for purpose 
Should 
have 
•The requirement is important but not vital 
•The requirement may be painful to leave out but the solution is still viable 
•The requirement may need some form of workaround 
Could 
have 
•The requirement is wanted or desirable but less important 
• If the requirement is left out, the impact is minimal 
Wont 
have* 
•Project team has agreed it will not deliver this requirement 
•Requirement is not needed for the solution, and is a low priority 
* This time…
Emergent Complexity 
Behaviours 
13 
Requirements 
What are the common 
challenges present in a complex 
project landscape? 
Funding / 
Finance 
Uncertainty Culture 
Assumptions Trades 
Change 
Length of Time 
Decision Making 
Optimism 
Unrealistic 
Solutions 
Lack of 
Maturity 
Geography 
Systems of 
Interests 
Regulatory 
Organisational 
Capability 
Ambiguity 
Risk Stakeholders Dependencies 
Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
Influence vs. Control 
(INCOSE UK Capability Working Group) 
Influence 
Control 
Uncertainty 
Scope: WHAT 
Objectives are to be 
achieved 
Influence – Control Spectrum 
Implementation 
Delivery: HOW 
To implement objectives 
Closure 
Mobilisation 
Definition 
Concept 
Initiation 
Influence 
Low 
Uncertainty 
Control 
Closure 
Implementation 
Mobilisation 
Definition 
Concept 
Delivery: HOW 
To implement objectives 
Low 
Uncertainty 
Influence 
Control 
Influence 
Low 
High 
Uncertainty 
Initiation 
Scope: WHAT 
Objectives are to be 
achieved 
High 
Uncertainty 
Value Solution 
Purpose 
Focus 
Enterprise Capability Service Product
Now What?
Facilitating Proactive Decisions 
Level of Business Impact 
Skill Levels 
Required 
What 
Happened? 
Why Did it 
Happen? 
What is Likely 
to Happen? 
What Should I 
Do About It? 
Descriptive 
Analytics 
Diagnostic 
Analytics 
Predictive 
Analytics 
Prescriptive 
Analytics 
Forward Looking 
Indicators 
Actuals vs. Forecast 
Actuals vs. Baseline 
Scenario 
Planning
Making Progress
Objective Criteria / Steps 
Issue 
Create & Review Document 
Issue 
Objective Criteria / Steps; 
50% Draft Document Complete 
20% Peer Review Complete 
20% Update Document Complete 
10% Sign-off Loop Complete 
Draft 
Document 
Peer 
Review 
Update 
Document 
Sign-off 
Document 
Issue 
Draft 
Document 
Peer 
Review 
Update 
Document 
Sign-off 
Document 
Issue 
Infeed Infeed 
Suitable for roll-up utilising 
Steps / Objective Criteria 
Unsuitable for roll-up utilising 
Steps / Objective Criteria
Summary 
5 things to do as a result of this webinar… 
● Map your Environment and validate perceptions 
● Understand your priorities 
● Change happens – Influence / Control 
● Do things right and do the right things 
● Subjectively measure progress
Any Questions? 
Carolyn Limbert 
Principal Planner 
Carolyn.limbert@harmonicltd.co.uk
This presentation was delivered at an 
APM event 
To find out more about upcoming 
events please visit our website 
www.apm.org.uk/events

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Making progress in an uncertain world 2nd October 14

  • 1. Making Progress in an Uncertain World Carolyn Limbert, Principal Planner, Harmonic Ltd, October 2014
  • 2. Outline ● The Realities of Delivery ● The Landscape • Socio-Political • Structural • Emergent ● Proactive Decision Management ● 5 things to take away from the webinar
  • 3. On Paper… Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997) Scope: WHAT Objectives are to be achieved Concept Mobilisation Delivery: HOW To implement objectives Low Uncertainty High Uncertainty Low Uncertainty Initiation Definition Closure Implementation
  • 4. The Reality… Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997) Scope: WHAT Objectives are to be achieved Delivery: HOW To implement objectives Low Uncertainty High Mobilisation Definition Concept Uncertainty Low Uncertainty Closure Initiation
  • 5. Complex Projects - Back to Basics New view on PM Performance Time Cost Performance Time Cost Context Financing (Strategic Highway Research Program, 2012) “The intrinsic complexity of projects, in part, is driven by political, social, technological and environmental issues, as well as tight fiscal pressures, end user expectations which may change dramatically during the life of a project, and government instability.” (ICCPM, 2012)
  • 6. The Landscape Behaviours 6 Requirements What are the common challenges present in a complex project landscape? Funding / Finance Uncertainty Culture Assumptions Trades Change Length of Time Decision Making Optimism Unrealistic Solutions Lack of Maturity Geography Systems of Interests Regulatory Organisational Capability Ambiguity Risk Stakeholders Dependencies Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
  • 7. Socio-Political Complexity Behaviours 7 Requirements What are the common challenges present in a complex project landscape? Funding / Finance Uncertainty Culture Assumptions Trades Change Length of Time Decision Making Optimism Unrealistic Solutions Lack of Maturity Geography Systems of Interests Regulatory Organisational Capability Ambiguity Risk Stakeholders Dependencies Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
  • 9. Structural Complexity Behaviours 9 Requirements What are the common challenges present in a complex project landscape? Funding / Finance Uncertainty Culture Assumptions Trades Change Length of Time Decision Making Optimism Unrealistic Solutions Lack of Maturity Geography Systems of Interests Regulatory Organisational Capability Ambiguity Risk Stakeholders Dependencies Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
  • 10. Systems Thinking System Engineering Enterprise Processes Enterprise Environment Management Investment Management System Life Cycle Process Management Resource Management Quality Management Project Processes Planning Assessment Control Decision Making Risk Management Configuration Management Information Management Technical Processes Stakeholder Requirements Definition Requirements Analysis Architectural Design Implementation Integration Verification Transition Validation Operation Maintenance Disposal Agreement Processes Enterprise Environment Management Investment Management Process Guidelines
  • 11. Systems Thinking ● You cannot optimise a system by separately optimising its components ● Focus on defining customer needs and required functionality early in the development cycle ● Understand the whole problem before you try to solve it
  • 12. Requirements Prioritisation Agile DSDM – MoSCoW Prioritisation Must have •The Project cannot deliver on the target date without this •There is no point deploying the solution without this requirement • The solution will not be legal / safe / fit for purpose Should have •The requirement is important but not vital •The requirement may be painful to leave out but the solution is still viable •The requirement may need some form of workaround Could have •The requirement is wanted or desirable but less important • If the requirement is left out, the impact is minimal Wont have* •Project team has agreed it will not deliver this requirement •Requirement is not needed for the solution, and is a low priority * This time…
  • 13. Emergent Complexity Behaviours 13 Requirements What are the common challenges present in a complex project landscape? Funding / Finance Uncertainty Culture Assumptions Trades Change Length of Time Decision Making Optimism Unrealistic Solutions Lack of Maturity Geography Systems of Interests Regulatory Organisational Capability Ambiguity Risk Stakeholders Dependencies Utilising concepts from (Maylor, Turner, Murray-Webster, 2013)
  • 14. Influence vs. Control (INCOSE UK Capability Working Group) Influence Control Uncertainty Scope: WHAT Objectives are to be achieved Influence – Control Spectrum Implementation Delivery: HOW To implement objectives Closure Mobilisation Definition Concept Initiation Influence Low Uncertainty Control Closure Implementation Mobilisation Definition Concept Delivery: HOW To implement objectives Low Uncertainty Influence Control Influence Low High Uncertainty Initiation Scope: WHAT Objectives are to be achieved High Uncertainty Value Solution Purpose Focus Enterprise Capability Service Product
  • 16. Facilitating Proactive Decisions Level of Business Impact Skill Levels Required What Happened? Why Did it Happen? What is Likely to Happen? What Should I Do About It? Descriptive Analytics Diagnostic Analytics Predictive Analytics Prescriptive Analytics Forward Looking Indicators Actuals vs. Forecast Actuals vs. Baseline Scenario Planning
  • 18. Objective Criteria / Steps Issue Create & Review Document Issue Objective Criteria / Steps; 50% Draft Document Complete 20% Peer Review Complete 20% Update Document Complete 10% Sign-off Loop Complete Draft Document Peer Review Update Document Sign-off Document Issue Draft Document Peer Review Update Document Sign-off Document Issue Infeed Infeed Suitable for roll-up utilising Steps / Objective Criteria Unsuitable for roll-up utilising Steps / Objective Criteria
  • 19. Summary 5 things to do as a result of this webinar… ● Map your Environment and validate perceptions ● Understand your priorities ● Change happens – Influence / Control ● Do things right and do the right things ● Subjectively measure progress
  • 20. Any Questions? Carolyn Limbert Principal Planner Carolyn.limbert@harmonicltd.co.uk
  • 21. This presentation was delivered at an APM event To find out more about upcoming events please visit our website www.apm.org.uk/events