Managing Complexity
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This document discusses managing complexity using the Cynefin framework. It begins with the author's background and reflections on past project performance. It then discusses that complexity is the norm for many projects and initiatives due to interconnected systems and emergent behaviors. Traditional reductionist approaches are insufficient for complex problems. The Cynefin framework categorizes problems into obvious, complicated, complex, and chaotic domains and suggests sensemaking and appropriate strategies for each. The document advocates understanding complexity, influencing rather than controlling systems, and learning over rigid planning when managing complex initiatives and environments.
![ABOUT ME
• 1991: Ex-Computer Scientist (DRDO),Antarctic Researcher
(16 months @ Indian station “Maitri”)
• 1995: Hi-Tech Products (Siemens, Philips, Huawei, McAfee),
Leader (NetScout,Yahoo!, [24]7 Innovation Labs)
• 2014:Thought Leader, Strategy Consulting,Agility &
Innovation Coach (5000+ trained), Public Speaker (200+ talks),
Blogger (150+ blogs), Startup mentor (100+ startups), Visiting
Faculty (5+ courses taught),Author (1 book published, 2 WIP)](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/do7yd77qrykcgi2ogasw-signature-78ec57993d1f84b06dbc2f51bd63797ac1eb4baee7b38d395abcf5fda5e16bfb-poli-161117160432/85/Managing-Complexity-2-320.jpg)
![“CYNEFIN”
• Wikipedia: Cynefin is defined as the state of being
influenced by multiple pasts of which we can only be
partly aware: cultural, religious, geographic, tribal, etc. "It
describes that relationship: the place of your birth and of
your upbringing, the environment in which you live and to
which you are naturally acclimatised." [5] or knowledge
and sense of place that is passed down the generations.
[6] Cynefin has been linked to the MaoriTūrangawaewae
which means a place to stand. [7]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/do7yd77qrykcgi2ogasw-signature-78ec57993d1f84b06dbc2f51bd63797ac1eb4baee7b38d395abcf5fda5e16bfb-poli-161117160432/85/Managing-Complexity-48-320.jpg)
![CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK
• Wikipedia:The framework provides a typology of contexts
that guides what sort of explanations or solutions might apply.
It draws on research into complex adaptive systems theory,
cognitive science, anthropology, and narrative patterns, as well
as evolutionary psychology, to describe problems, situations,
and systems. It "explores the relationship between man,
experience, and context"[4] and proposes new approaches
to communication, decision-making, policy-making, and
knowledge management in complex social environments.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/do7yd77qrykcgi2ogasw-signature-78ec57993d1f84b06dbc2f51bd63797ac1eb4baee7b38d395abcf5fda5e16bfb-poli-161117160432/85/Managing-Complexity-49-320.jpg)
Managing Complexity
- 2. ABOUT ME • 1991: Ex-Computer Scientist (DRDO),Antarctic Researcher (16 months @ Indian station “Maitri”) • 1995: Hi-Tech Products (Siemens, Philips, Huawei, McAfee), Leader (NetScout,Yahoo!, [24]7 Innovation Labs) • 2014:Thought Leader, Strategy Consulting,Agility & Innovation Coach (5000+ trained), Public Speaker (200+ talks), Blogger (150+ blogs), Startup mentor (100+ startups), Visiting Faculty (5+ courses taught),Author (1 book published, 2 WIP)
- 3. REFLECTION #1 Rate your performance on last project, or last one year: 1. Disaster:Whatever we do, we never seem to win. Every project is "Dead on Arrival”… 2. Firefighting:We don’t really believe in planning, but somehow we are able to react. Met partial objectives but often at great cost… 3. Meticulous:Able to plan for anticipated changes and respond gracefully to “negative risks”. Met objectives reasonably well… 4. Strategic:Able to accommodate unanticipated changes and well-prepared to exploit “positive risks”. Exceeded objectives… 5. Futurist:Able to initiate significant change and disrupt the status quo. Created a new opportunity…
- 4. REFLECTION #1 • Why are you where you are? • How many $$$s are you bleeding? • What would it take for you to fix that?
- 5. WE ARE IN BIGTROUBLE! 65% Mega projects fail! 50%Software projects are challenged! 70% Change initiatives fail! 90% Startups fail! 80% NPDs fail!
- 6. POOR PERFORMANCE ISTHE NORM… PMI Pulse of the Profession, 2013 Standish Group, 2015
- 7. …WITH HUGE IMPACT PMI Pulse of the Profession, 2013
- 8. PMI PULSE OFTHE PROFESSION 2016
- 9. WHY?
- 11. HOW DO WE NORMALLY SOLVE PROBLEMS?
- 12. TYPICAL STEPS • Define:Articulate the problem • Reductionism: Breakdown into smaller components and known patterns • Creativity: Generate alternatives and potential solutions • Decision-making: Evaluate and select best ones • Project management: Implement solution(s)
- 13. REDUCTIONISM • The practice of analysing and describing a complex phenomenon in terms of its simple or fundamental constituents, especially when this is said to provide a sufficient explanation. • The whole is equal to sum of parts
- 15. TRADITIONALVIEW Descartes held that non-human animals could be reductively explained as automata — De homine, 1662.
- 19. STRUCTURED COMPONENTS WBS, PERT/CPM Charts Gantt Chart
- 21. PM IS BALANCINGTHE IRON TRIANGLE Quality Scope CostTime
- 22. REFLECTION #2 • Situation:You have been assigned to manage a new project (say, NPD, or an M&A, or a Change initiative, etc.) in a totally new domain, and your success depends on delivering world-class results. Project kick-offs in a month. How will you proceed? • Time: 5min
- 24. WHAT IS COMPLEXITY? • Wikipedia: Complexity describes the behaviour of a system or model whose components interact in multiple ways and follow local rules, meaning there is no reasonable higher instruction to define the various possible interactions. • Complexity is generally used to characterize something with many parts where those parts interact with each other in multiple ways, culminating in a higher order of emergence greater than the sum of its parts. Just like there is no absolute definition of "intelligence", there is no absolute definition of "complexity"; the only consensus among researchers is that there is no agreement about the specific definition of complexity. However, a characterization of what is complex is possible.
- 25. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS (CAS) • A complex adaptive system is a "complex macroscopic collection" of relatively "similar and partially connected micro-structures" formed in order to adapt to the changing environment and increase its survivability as a macro-structure • They are complex in that they are dynamic networks of interactions, and their relationships are not aggregations of the individual static entities, i.e., the behavior of the ensemble is not predicted by the behavior of the components. • They are adaptive in that the individual and collective behavior mutate and self-organize corresponding to the change-initiating micro-event or collection of events. Wikipedia
- 26. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM • Melanie Mithcell: a system in which large networks of components with no central control and simple rules of operation give rise to complex collective behaviour, sophisticated information processing, and adaptation via learning or evolution. • a system that exhibits nontrivial emergent and self- organising behaviour
- 27. CHAOTIC + ORDER = CHAORDIC Any self-organizing, adaptive, nonlinear complex system, whether physical, biological, or social, the behavior of which exhibits characteristics of both order and chaos or loosely translated to business terminology. - Dee Hock
- 28. CHARACTERISTICS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS Let’s study each of them…
- 29. SIMPLE AGENTS
- 30. LARGE NUMBER OF INTERACTING ELEMENTS
- 31. DECENTRALIZED
- 32. CONNECTED
- 33. FEEDBACK
- 34. SIMPLE RULES Boids Model (1987) 1. Collision avoidance 2. Velocity matching 3. Flock centering
- 35. SYNCHRONIZATION
- 36. SYNCHRONIZATION
- 38. RESILIENT
- 40. EMERGENCE / WHOLE IS GREATERTHAN SUM OF PARTS
- 43. SELF-ORGANIZATION • Self-organization is a process where some form of overall order or coordination arises out of the local interactions between smaller component parts of an initially disordered system. • The process of self-organization can be spontaneous, and it is not necessarily controlled by any auxiliary agent outside of the system. It is often triggered by random fluctuations that are amplified by positive feedback. • The resulting organization is wholly decentralized or distributed over all the components of the system.As such, the organization is typically robust and able to survive and, even, self-repair substantial damage or perturbations
- 44. ADAPTATION
- 45. REFLECTION #3 • Can you think of elements at work that display characteristics of complex systems? • Explain why you think they are “complex”? • Describe how you “manage” them currently?
- 46. SO, HOW COULD WE MANAGE COMPLEXITY? • From Predict to Understand • From Control to Influence • From Plan to Learn
- 48. “CYNEFIN” • Wikipedia: Cynefin is defined as the state of being influenced by multiple pasts of which we can only be partly aware: cultural, religious, geographic, tribal, etc. "It describes that relationship: the place of your birth and of your upbringing, the environment in which you live and to which you are naturally acclimatised." [5] or knowledge and sense of place that is passed down the generations. [6] Cynefin has been linked to the MaoriTūrangawaewae which means a place to stand. [7]
- 49. CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK • Wikipedia:The framework provides a typology of contexts that guides what sort of explanations or solutions might apply. It draws on research into complex adaptive systems theory, cognitive science, anthropology, and narrative patterns, as well as evolutionary psychology, to describe problems, situations, and systems. It "explores the relationship between man, experience, and context"[4] and proposes new approaches to communication, decision-making, policy-making, and knowledge management in complex social environments.
- 50. CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK • Three types of systems: ordered, complex and chaotic • Ordered divided into: obvious and complicated • Five domains Ordered Known Fact- based Un- Ordered Emergent Pattern- based
- 51. CYNEFIN FRAMEWORK • Sensemaking model where data proceeds framework; not a categorisation model: where framework proceeds data • Not a tool but a decision, analytic framework - doesn’t tell how to solve a problem but helps you pick the right approach • Initially used in knowledge management, cultural change and now used in several domains, including product development, organisational strategy and national security
- 52. SENSEMAKING “Sensemaking is the ability or attempt to make sense of an ambiguous situation. More exactly, sensemaking is the process of creating situational awareness and understanding in situations of high complexity or uncertainty in order to make decisions. It is “a motivated, continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively.” http://cognitive-edge.com/blog/what-is-sense-making/
- 53. OBVIOUS • Cause and Effect relationships • exist and self-evident • are predictable • and repeatable • Sense-Categorize-Respond • minimal expertise required • Apply best practice / single right answer • “Known-known” / “The Known” / Stability
- 54. COMPLICATED • Cause and Effect relationship • exists, but not evident • Sense-Analyze-Respond • requires expertise • analyse risks • a range of answers • device plan • Good practice / multiple right answers • “Known-Unknown” / “The Knowable”
- 55. COMPLEX • Cause and Effect relationship • only obvious in hindsight • unpredictable and • emergent outcomes • Probe-Sense-Respond • non-linear relationships • conduct safe-fail experiments, • Emergent Practice • “Unknown-Unknowns” / “The Unknowable”
- 56. CHAOTIC • Cause and Effect relationship • can't be determined at a system level • Act-Sense-Respond • first priority is to contain! • don’t look for perfect solution • move to another domain • Novel practice • “The Incoherent”
- 57. DISORDER • Not knowing which domain you are in! Causality unknown • People will revert to their own comfort zone in making a decision • Immediate priority is to move to one of the other domains
- 58. OBVIOUS / CHAOTIC CLIFF • Illusion of simplicity, might make you fall off the cliff into chaotic domain • Recovery from chaotic domain is very expensive • Think ofTitanic!
- 59. TOOLSTO MANAGE IN COMPLEX CONTEXT • Open up the discussion • Set barriers • Stimulate attractors • Encourage dissent and discovery • Manage starting conditions and monitor for emergence
- 60. REFLECTION #4 • Take the recent demonetisation initiative by the Govt. Use Cynefin framework to map elements in each of the five domains • Let’s discuss what strategies would you use to address the issues
- 61. RECAP • Complexity is all around us, and increasing! • Understanding of complex systems requires fundamentally different thinking. • Managing complexity requires first sensemaking, and then choosing appropriate methods. • Cynefin framework is a great tool for sense making.
- 62. REFERENCES • A Leader's Framework for Decision Making, https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders- framework-for-decision-making • Complexity:AVery Short Introduction, John H. Holland, 2014 • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynefin_Framework • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system • https://www.godaddy.com/garage/tech/process/cynefin-suggestive-framework- problem-solving/ • http://www.valuebasedprojectmanagement.com/sites/default/files/downloads/ Summary.pdf