Mat Мorrison - The Value of a Fan
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The document explores the concept of 'fans' in the context of social media, particularly focusing on Facebook users and their value to brands. It discusses various types of fans, from 'true fans' to 'superfans,' and analyzes the implications of fan engagement on brand metrics and marketing strategies. The text highlights the importance of valuing fan engagement not just in terms of growth, but also in understanding the indirect media value and the behaviors associated with brand loyalty.
![How to make DR Valuation work for you
Obsessive Tracking Use [[Google Analytics]] (insert own choice)
Combine with (branded) short links
Track individual channels and posts/tweets
Form & test hypotheses
Learn from other channels
Optimise Earned Media Reach
Metrics Frequency
Sharing
Engagement
Audience quality
Efficiencies & cost reductions
38](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/matmorrison-111110042330-phpapp01/85/Mat-orrison-The-Value-of-a-Fan-39-320.jpg)
Mat Мorrison - The Value of a Fan
- 1. Mat Morrison Starcom MediaVest Group @mediaczar THE VALUE OF A FAN
- 2. …so please bear with me (Try telling that to your CFO) 1
- 3. WHAT IS A FAN?
- 4. Kevin Kelly, “1,000 True Fans” A True Fan is defined as someone name. who will purchase anything and They bookmark the eBay page everything you produce. where your out-of-print editions They will drive 200 miles to see show up. They come to your you sing. They will buy the super openings. deluxe re-issued hi-res box set They have you sign their copies. of your stuff even though they They buy the t-shirt, and the have the low-res version. They mug, and the hat. They can't wait have a Google Alert set for your till you issue your next work. They are true fans. http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php 3
- 5. We use brands to tell a story about ourselves. MUFC Harley Davidson Legend of Zelda Playboy Apple Nike Some brands are easier to co-opt than others 4
- 6. The spectrum of fandom Mad Love Really Like Fairly Oblivious Actively Dislike 5
- 7. Superfans: True Fans with body paint & tattoos… This fan… …creates the space for these fans to exist 6
- 8. But I’m only talking about Facebook Fans Not “True Fans” Not “Superfans” But “Facebook Fans” 7
- 9. Why is Facebook so important? 1000 Facebook growth: users and 100 estimated market cap 800 80 600 60 Facebook users (millions) 400 40 Facebook valuation ($bn) 200 20 0 0 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Data: Facebook, VentureBeat, SharesPost, SecondMarket 8
- 10. European Web Usage 85 billion user minutes/mo nth Data: comScore EMEA August 2011 9
- 11. European Web Usage 163 billion page views/mont h Data: comScore EMEA August 2011 10
- 12. The most-loved brands on Facebook last week Brand Fans • November 2007; Coca-Cola 35,017,182 Facebook introduces Starbucks 25,747,572 Pages Oreo 23,271,622 Red Bull 22,673,250 • “We’ve built a way for you Converse All Star 20,883,240 to connect to things other Converse 20,410,948 than people” Skittles 19,460,585 Pringles 15,855,303 • Effectively sets strategy Monster Energy 12,504,459 for Brand Advertisers for adidas Originals 11,273,177 next 4 years. 11
- 13. WHAT’S THE VALUE OF A FAN?
- 14. I won’t insult your intelligence… (Of course it does. Now I can go home.) 13
- 15. The costs are fairly simple Annual cost of Annual cost Community of Recruitment Management Fans 14
- 16. Value is more complex Valuation Method Publisher Date $3.60 Media Vitrue Apr 2010 Value $71.84 Incr. Spend Syncapse Jun 2010 $136.38 Agg. Value Syncapse Jun 2010 $2.53 Incr. Sales EventBrite Oct 2010 470% Incr. Spend WFA/Millward Brown/ Mar 2011 Dynamic Logic $2.10 Incr. Sales Spinback May 2011 15
- 17. Why Brands like Fans Sign of my brand’s popularity Source of insight Generate increased engagement with brand Generate increased short-term spend Generate increased long-term spend Increased loyalty Increased advocacy/recommendation Source: SMG London Client Interviews 16
- 18. Why Brands like Fans Earned Media Value Direct Sales/Sales Promotion Brand Preference Metrics 17
- 20. Vitrue’s Advertising Value Equivalent model Fans Posts CPM 1,000 1m fans × 2 posts x 30 days = 60m impressions 60m impressions ÷ 1000 × $5 CPM = $300,000 $300,000 × 12 months = $3.6m $3.6m ÷ 1m fans = $3.60 19
- 21. And where that model goes wrong: Daily Active Users Reach Pages reach between 5% and 20% of their fans 1m fans may mean 50K Daily Active Users Frequency Smart advertisers cap frequency to avoid burnout DAUs are exposed multiple times Result? Hard to value this way – but let’s dig deeper 20
- 22. How people use a Facebook Page (real client data) Audience Activity Day Part Week Day Competitor Activity See Brand See/Don’t Ignore, Post in See Like Page Like or News Future Comment Feed Posts Like source First exposure Responders Ongoing Exposure 0.6% 11% 36% 99% 0.6% attributed to Estimate Comments + Likes DAU “on Page” Likes Total DAU 21 Fans
- 23. Post engagement by hour and day (most responsive days highlighted) To May 2011 Since May 2011 60 40 30 Count of Posts by Hour 40 20 20 10 - - 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 80 40 60 30 Count of Posts by Day 40 20 20 10 0 0 Mon Thu Sun Mon Thu Sun Single client data. Your mileage will vary
- 24. The effect of EdgeRank åuwd e e e edges e EdgeRank See Brand See/Don’t Ignore, Post in See Like Page Like or News Future Comment Feed Posts Like source First exposure Responders Ongoing Exposure 0.6% 11% 36% Key take-out: if you don’t use them, you lose them 99% 0.6% attributed to Estimate Comments + Likes DAU “on Page” Likes Total DAU 23 Fans
- 25. Could we earn more value by posting more often? • 80% of responses within 3 50% 91.4% hours. 40% • 90% within 6 hours 30% • (There’s a small blip after 24 hours: engaged/non-daily users) 20% • What does this imply about 10% how often the page could 0% post? 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 • How does post frequency Elapsed Hours impact other KPIs? %age responses cumulative 24
- 26. Impressions & Reach grow strongly inline with post frequency 15.5 -1.4 y = 1.108x + 11.63 15 R² = 0.9438 -1.6 14.5 y = 0.4005x - 2.3461 -1.8 R² = 0.5301 14 ln(7-day rolling imps) 13.5 -2 ln(reach) 13 -2.2 12.5 -2.4 12 -2.6 11.5 11 -2.8 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.5 1 1.5 ln(7-day rolling posts) ln(posts) 25
- 27. ..but Unlikes increase, too • Nearly all Unlikes are a response to 7.5 post activity* y = 0.4594x + 5.5239 R² = 0.5779 • Post frequency seems to lead to fan 7 attrition: ln(7-day rolling unsubs) Increase from 1 to 2 posts = 46% 6.5 increase in Unlikes. • Recent f8 changes suggest that 6 users may increasingly hide posts rather than Unlike the page: 5.5 This should have a long term impact on DAU/Reach – but Post engagement may increase and 5 Unlikes decrease. 0 1 2 3 4 ln(7-day rolling posts) 26
- 28. Why direct media value isn’t enough Incremental media value, not cost reduction Fan audiences remain small vs. total target audience Impressions not a proxy for subsequent user behaviour or revenue growth 27
- 30. Homophily We like to hang around with people like ourselves… 29
- 31. Social Proof …and we unconsciously copy what our friends do 30
- 32. Indirect Media Value: Homophily & Social Proof Better targeting (& less wastage) Paid Greater impact Implied/explicit endorsement Higher response Earned Spontaneous endorsement Greater impact Free marketing = reduced marketing spend 31
- 33. Indirect Media Value: Homophily & Social Proof Nielsen BrandLift Ad Exposure Social Ad Exposure Social Ad + Organic +30% +16% +13% +10% +8% +8% +8% +4% +2% Recall Awareness Purchase Intent http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/nielsenfacebook-ad-report/ 32
- 34. How to make Media Valuation work for you Remove focus from Fan growth at any cost Reach/Frequency Focus on Sharing Engagement Integration with campaigns Audience quality Efficiencies & cost reductions 33
- 36. Why people “Like” Brand Pages on Facebook To receive discounts and promotions 40% To show my support for the company… 37% To get a "freebie" 36% To stay informed about the activities… 34% To get updates on future products 33% To get updates on upcoming sales 30% For fun and entertainment 27% To get access to exclusive content 25% Someone recommended it to me 22% To learn more about the company 21% For education about company topics 13% To interact (e.g. share ideas, provide… 12% Data: ExactTarget/CoTweet September 2010 35
- 37. Example from a major multiple 493 Clicks 3,008 Clicks £5 Off Code Half Price Sale Tesco Data is in public domain courtesy of Bit.ly 36
- 38. Online Retailer 130,000 Clicks Live Sale ASOS data is in public domain courtesy of Bit.ly 37
- 39. How to make DR Valuation work for you Obsessive Tracking Use [[Google Analytics]] (insert own choice) Combine with (branded) short links Track individual channels and posts/tweets Form & test hypotheses Learn from other channels Optimise Earned Media Reach Metrics Frequency Sharing Engagement Audience quality Efficiencies & cost reductions 38
- 40. BRAND METRICS
- 41. Building loyalty. One fan at a time. Customer Services does one-to-one Marketing doesn’t 40
- 42. Social Interactions appear to impact brand metrics SMBI: Impact on Brand Metrics Visit Only Visit + Action +78% +79% +79% +81% +82% +74% +41% +43% +31% +34% +35% +28% SMBI is a Starcom MediaVest Product 41
- 43. What did we learn from the SMBI study? Sharing/recommending is the key action we should seek Not simply because it reaches others… ..but because it’s a public commitment …and has high impact on future preference/behaviour 42
- 44. How to make Brand Metrics Valuation work for you Invest in market research to justify activity Compare across multiple channels Optimise content and earned media metrics for sharing 43
- 45. Don’t have to Like a Page to engage & share… People want to promote themselves, and they’re prepared to let Brands help. Make the content about them, and they’ll share it. 44
- 46. WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE US?
- 47. Why do people become Fans? To receive discounts and promotions 40% To show my support for the company to others 37% To get a "freebie" 36% To stay informed about the activities of a… 34% Mostly, they’re “Subscribers” To get updates on future products33% or “Permissions”, and not 30% Tp get updates on upcoming sales “Fans” For fun and entertainment 27% To get access to exclusive content 25% Should this make us think? Someone recommended it to me22% To learn more about the company 21% “Truly social” For education about company topics 13% Channel duplication To interact (e.g. share ideas, provide… 12% Data: ExactTarget/CoTweet September 2010 46
- 48. What if we unbundled the user journey? From a consecutive model …to parallel streams Fan acquisition & MGM MGM & Sharing Fan acquisition Engagement DR Engage DR Sequential Parallel • Orthodox model insists • Allow users to interact Question: Does every brand need to maintain that users “join with brand on own terms community” before • Increased a day-to-day relationship? focus on receiving benefits Performance Marketing or Brand Metrics 47
- 49. Caveat Facebook changes fast & often Marketers must be prepared to change minds and direction Seemingly established models are only 12 or 24 months old Smart marketers are asking questions about value of their fans 48
- 50. How is it changing? Owned Space Your Your Your Site Apps Pages CRM messages Your Places Social Signals Your Apps Targeting Data Friends Fans of Fans User Data Targets Your Traffic eCRM 49
- 51. It’s less about your brand on Facebook, more about putting Facebook in your brand comms • Used in varying ways by publishers (HuffPo, Independent, TechCrunch, Travelocity), retailers (Amazon, ASOS), and advertisers (Aviva, Intel, Heineken Group) • Recent f8 announcements make it even more important to begin integrating Facebook elements into your site. 50
- 52. Are we looking at this the right way? Valuation Approach Publisher Date $3.60 Media Vitrue Apr 2010 Value $71.84 Incr. Spend Syncapse Jun 2010 $136.38 Agg. Value Syncapse Jun 2010 $2.53 Incr. Sales EventBrite Oct 2010 470% Incr. Spend WFA/Millward Brown/ Mar 2011 Dynamic Logic $2.10 Incr. Sales Spinback May 2011 51
- 53. So for our purposes, is a fan… Someone who engages with your content? Someone who promotes your products? Someone who promotes your content? Someone who buys your product? Someone who becomes content for campaign? 52