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OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting
Project
Measuring and Monitoring
BEPS
ACTION 11: 2015 Final Report

OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Project
Measuring
and Monitoring BEPS,
Action 11 - 2015 Final
Report

This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries
and to the name of any territory, city or area.
ISBN 978-92-64-24133-6 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-24134-3 (PDF)
Series: OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Project
ISSN 2313-2604 (print)
ISSN 2313-2612 (online)
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use
of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli
settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
References to "countries" should be read as including all jurisdictions.
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Please cite this publication as:
OECD (2015), Measuring and Monitoring BEPS, Action 11 - 2015 Final Report, OECD/G20 Base Erosion and
Profit Shifting Project, OECD Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264241343-en

MEASURING AND MONITORING BEPS © OECD 2015
Foreword – 3
Foreword
International tax issues have never been as high on the political agenda as they are
today. The integration of national economies and markets has increased substantially in
recent years, putting a strain on the international tax rules, which were designed more than a
century ago. Weaknesses in the current rules create opportunities for base erosion and profit
shifting (BEPS), requiring bold moves by policy makers to restore confidence in the system
and ensure that profits are taxed where economic activities take place and value is created.
Following the release of the report Addressing Base Erosion and Profit Shifting in
February 2013, OECD and G20 countries adopted a 15-point Action Plan to address
BEPS in September 2013. The Action Plan identified 15 actions along three key pillars:
introducing coherence in the domestic rules that affect cross-border activities, reinforcing
substance requirements in the existing international standards, and improving transparency
as well as certainty.
Since then, all G20 and OECD countries have worked on an equal footing and the
European Commission also provided its views throughout the BEPS project. Developing
countries have been engaged extensively via a number of different mechanisms, including
direct participation in the Committee on Fiscal Affairs. In addition, regional tax organisations
such as the African Tax Administration Forum, the Centre de rencontre des administrations
fiscales and the Centro Interamericano de Administraciones Tributarias, joined international
organisations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the United
Nations, in contributing to the work. Stakeholders have been consulted at length: in total,
the BEPS project received more than 1 400 submissions from industry, advisers, NGOs and
academics. Fourteen public consultations were held, streamed live on line, as were webcasts
where the OECD Secretariat periodically updated the public and answered questions.
After two years of work, the 15 actions have now been completed. All the different
outputs, including those delivered in an interim form in 2014, have been consolidated into
a comprehensive package. The BEPS package of measures represents the first substantial
renovation of the international tax rules in almost a century. Once the new measures become
applicable, it is expected that profits will be reported where the economic activities that
generate them are carried out and where value is created. BEPS planning strategies that rely
on outdated rules or on poorly co-ordinated domestic measures will be rendered ineffective.
Implementation therefore becomes key at this stage. The BEPS package is designed
to be implemented via changes in domestic law and practices, and via treaty provisions,
with negotiations for a multilateral instrument under way and expected to be finalised in
2016. OECD and G20 countries have also agreed to continue to work together to ensure a
consistent and co-ordinated implementation of the BEPS recommendations. Globalisation
requires that global solutions and a global dialogue be established which go beyond
OECD and G20 countries. To further this objective, in 2016 OECD and G20 countries will
conceive an inclusive framework for monitoring, with all interested countries participating
on an equal footing.

4 –
Foreword
A better understanding of how the BEPS recommendations are implemented in
practice could reduce misunderstandings and disputes between governments. Greater
focus on implementation and tax administration should therefore be mutually beneficial to
governments and business. Proposed improvements to data and analysis will help support
ongoing evaluation of the quantitative impact of BEPS, as well as evaluating the impact of
the countermeasures developed under the BEPS Project.

TABLE OF CONTENTS – 5
Table of contents
Abbreviations and acronyms.......................................................................................... 11
Executive summary ......................................................................................................... 15
Chapter 1. Assessment of existing data sources relevant for BEPS analysis ........... 17
1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 18
1.2 Potential criteria for evaluating available data for BEPS research ........................ 18
1.3 Currently available data for BEPS analysis........................................................... 24
1.4 Initial assessment of currently available data for analysing BEPS........................ 26
Chapter 2. Indicators of base erosion and profit shifting............................................ 41
2.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 42
2.2 Indicator concept.................................................................................................... 42
2.3 Indicators as a component of Action 11................................................................. 43
2.4 Guidelines for indicators........................................................................................ 44
2.5 A significant caution.............................................................................................. 45
2.6 Six indicators of BEPS .......................................................................................... 46
2.7 General structure of the indicators......................................................................... 47
2.8 Disconnect between financial and real economic activities................................... 48
2.9 Profit rate differentials within top global MNEs ................................................... 52
2.10 MNE vs. “comparable” non-MNE effective tax rate differentials....................... 57
2.11 Profit shifting through intangibles ....................................................................... 60
2.12 Profit shifting through interest............................................................................. 63
2.13 Possible future BEPS indicators with new data................................................... 65
2.14 Indicators considered but not included ................................................................ 67
2.15 Summary.............................................................................................................. 68
Annex 2.A1. Formulas for calculating indicators........................................................ 71
Chapter 3. Towards measuring the scale and economic impact of BEPS
and countermeasures....................................................................................................... 79
3.1 Overview................................................................................................................ 81
3.2 Key issues in measuring and analysing BEPS....................................................... 82
3.2.1 Defining BEPS ......................................................................................... 82
3.2.2 The “counterfactual” for BEPS analysis .................................................. 83
3.2.3 Separating BEPS from real economic activity......................................... 84
3.2.4 Separating BEPS from non-BEPS preferences ........................................ 86
3.2.5 Measuring the appropriate tax rate for BEPS analysis............................. 86
3.3 What we know about BEPS and the effect of countermeasures............................ 88
3.3.1 General profit shifting analysis ................................................................ 88
3.3.2 Incentives for BEPS ................................................................................. 96
3.3.3 BEPS and developing countries ............................................................... 98
3.3.4 Estimating the scale (fiscal effects) of BEPS........................................... 99

6 – TABLE OF CONTENTS
3.3.5 Global estimate of the revenue loss from BEPS .................................... 101
3.3.6 Some other fiscal estimate studies.......................................................... 103
3.3.7 The extent of BEPS behaviours and possible dynamic effects if
not curtailed............................................................................................ 106
3.3.8 Effects of BEPS countermeasures.......................................................... 106
3.3.9 Impact of existing unilateral BEPS-related countermeasures ................ 110
3.3.10 Economic impacts of BEPS and BEPS countermeasures ...................... 110
3.3.11 Important considerations in the economic analysis of BEPS
and BEPS countermeasures.................................................................... 110
3.3.12 Expected incidence of CIT changes in response to BEPS
countermeasures..................................................................................... 112
3.3.13 Economic efficiency and growth............................................................ 117
3.3.14 Increasing government competition on tax bases and attracting
economic activity ................................................................................... 122
3.4 Future areas for economic research to better measure the scale and
economic impact of BEPS with better data ......................................................... 122
Annex 3.A1. Economic implications of multinational tax planning........................ 135
Annex 3.A2. A toolkit for estimating the country-specific fiscal effects of
BEPS countermeasures....................................................................... 193
Chapter 4 . Towards better data and tools for monitoring BEPS in the future ....... 249
4.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................... 250
4.2 Background.......................................................................................................... 251
4.3 Classification of analytical tools to turn data into insights .................................. 256
4.4 A classification of the types of data..................................................................... 258
4.5 Data collected in response to the Action Plan in the future................................. 260
4.6 Recommendations................................................................................................ 262
4.7 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 265
Tables
Table 1.1. Overview of the current data sources.................................................... 24
Table 1.2. Regional distribution of MNE subsidiaries in ORBIS by
location of subsidiary and group headquarters, compared
with regional distribution of top 500 MNE groups and GDP,
2011....................................................................................................... 30
Table 2.1. Indicator 1: Concentration of foreign direct investment
relative to GDP...................................................................................... 51
Table 2.2. Indicator 3: High profit rates of MNE affiliates in lower-tax
locations ................................................................................................ 57
Table 2.3. Indicator 4: Effective tax rates of MNE affiliates compared
to non-MNE entities with similar characteristics.................................. 59
Table 2.4. Estimated annual indicator values......................................................... 62
Table 3.1. Data sources, estimation strategies and results from recent
profit shifting studies............................................................................. 94
Table 3.2. Standard deviation of OECD tax rates, 2003 and 2013......................... 98
Table 3.3. Estimates of global and developing country fiscal effects
from BEPS........................................................................................... 101
Table 3.4. Ranking of key location factors of MNE operations........................... 119
Table 3.5. Summary R&D tax wedge with MNE tax planning............................ 120

Table 3.A1.1. Tax treatment of intellectual property in selected OECD and
G20 countries, 2014 ............................................................................ 152
Table 3.A1.2. Profit shifting and mismatches reduce the effective tax rate
of MNEs.............................................................................................. 157
Table 3.A1.3. Economic implications of international tax planning:
summary of main findings................................................................... 181
Table 3.A2.1. Government fiscal estimates of BEPS-related measures..................... 194
Table 3.A2.2. Elasticity estimates of the responsiveness of intra-firm
exports and imports to corporate income tax rate differentials ........... 207
Table 3.A2.3. NIE by the non-financial corporate sector .......................................... 219
Table 3.A2.4. Potential data sources for CFC income ............................................... 228
Figures
Figure 1.1. Example of non-arm’s length transfer pricing affecting
National Accounts and firm-level reports ............................................. 28
Figure 2.1. Future path of BEPS measurement ....................................................... 44
Figure 2.2. Indicator 1: Concentration of foreign direct investment
relative to GDP...................................................................................... 51
Figure 2.3. Indicator 2: High profit rates of low-taxed affiliates of top
global MNEs ......................................................................................... 56
Figure 2.4. Indicator 4: Effective tax rates of MNE affiliates relative to
non-MNE entities with similar characteristics ...................................... 60
Figure 2.5. Indicator 5: Concentration of royalty receipts relative to
R&D spending....................................................................................... 62
Figure 2.6. Indicator 6: Interest to income ratios of MNE affiliates in
locations with above average statutory tax rates................................... 64
Figure 3.1. Incentive to engage in BEPS: Corporate income tax rate
variation within OECD countries.......................................................... 96
Figure 3.2. Incentive to engage in BEPS: Corporate income tax rate on
patent income variation within OECD countries .................................. 97
Figure 3.A1.1. Issues covered by the analysis............................................................. 137
Figure 3.A1.2. Corporate tax rates and tax revenues................................................... 138
Figure 3.A1.3. Empirical approach on profit shifting: Illustrative example................ 147
Figure 3.A1.4. Trends in international tax planning, 2000-2010 ................................ 150
Figure 3.A1.5. Distribution of patents across countries .............................................. 151
Figure 3.A1.6. The effect of preferential tax treatment on the number of
patent applications............................................................................... 153
Figure 3.A1.7 Illustrative classification of anti-avoidance rules................................ 159
Figure 3.A1.8. Production of the accounting, bookkeeping, auditing and tax
consultancy industry............................................................................ 160
Figure 3.A1.9. Illustrative tax revenue effects of international tax planning
in hypothetical cases............................................................................ 164
Figure 3.A1.10. Illustrative tax revenue effects depending on the strictness of
anti-avoidance rules............................................................................. 165
Figure 3.A1.11. Revenue effects of tax planning: accounting for uncertainties............ 167
Figure 3.A1.12. Mark-up rate and international tax planning....................................... 170
Figure 3.A1.13. MNE group external leverage and international tax planning............. 174
Figure 3.A1.14. Share of inward FDI stock explained by tax rate differences
between countries................................................................................ 176

8 – TABLE OF CONTENTS
Figure 3.A1.15 Tax planning reduces the effect of corporate taxes on tax
planning MNEs’ investment................................................................ 178
Figure 3.A2.1. Potential approach to undertaking a fiscal estimate ............................ 196
Figure 3.A2.2. Intra-firm transactions as a percent of selected trade statistics ........... 204
Figure 3.A2.3. Potential steps to follow once data availability has been
determined........................................................................................... 213
Figure 4.1. Future path of BEPS measurement ..................................................... 252
Figure 4.2. Data important for analysis of BEPS and countermeasures................ 258
Boxes
Box 1.1. Criteria for assessing data ..................................................................... 19
Box 1.2. Public enquiries reveal data missing from many academic
studies.................................................................................................... 31
Box 1.3. Some current best practices in using available data for BEPS
analysis.................................................................................................. 33
Box 2.1. Indicator 1: Concentration of foreign direct investment
relative to GDP...................................................................................... 50
Box 2.2. How should economic activity be defined? .......................................... 52
Box 2.3. Indicator 2: High profit rates of low-taxed affiliates of top
global MNEs ......................................................................................... 55
Box 2.4. Indicator 3: High profit rates of MNE affiliates in lower-tax
locations ................................................................................................ 57
Box 2.5. Indicator 4: Effective tax rates of MNE affiliates compared
to non-MNE entities with similar characteristics.................................. 58
Box 2.6. Indicator 5: Concentration of royalty receipts relative to
R&D spending....................................................................................... 61
Box 2.7. Indicator 6: Interest-to-income ratios of MNE affiliates in
locations with above average statutory tax rates................................... 64
Box 2.8. Future Indicator A: Profit rates relative to ETRs, MNE
domestic vs. global operations .............................................................. 66
Box 2.9. Future Indicator B: Differential rates of return on FDI related
to SPEs .................................................................................................. 67
Box 3.1. Alternative points of comparisons - Alternative
“counterfactuals”................................................................................... 84
Box 3.2. Different tax variables used in BEPS and tax policy analyses.............. 86
Box 3.3. Different approaches used to estimate profit shifting............................ 91
Box 3.4. Other empirical analyses of BEPS fiscal effects................................. 104
Box 3.A1.1. Summary of main findings.................................................................. 135
Box 3.A1.2. Disclaimer on the data used in the empirical analysis......................... 141
Box 3.A1.3. Empirical approach: Assessing tax planning based on firm-
level data ............................................................................................. 147
Box 3.A1.4. Empirical approach: Location of patents............................................. 154
Box 3.A1.5. Empirical approach: Manipulation of the location of external
debt...................................................................................................... 155
Box 3.A1.6. Anti-avoidance rules ........................................................................... 158
Box 3.A1.7. The impact of book/tax differences and tax credits on tax
revenue estimates ................................................................................ 162
Box 3.A1.8. Main uncertainties surrounding the tax revenue estimates.................. 166
Box 3.A1.9. Empirical approach: Tax planning and competition ........................... 171

Box 3.A1.10. Empirical approach: Tax planning and group external
leverage ............................................................................................... 173
Box 3.A1.11. Cross-country differences in taxes and location of investment........... 177
Box 3.A1.12. Empirical approach: Investment and tax planning.............................. 179
Box 4.1. Some best practices in data availability for tax analysis of
corporate tax and MNEs...................................................................... 253
Box 4.2. Case studies of tax administrations' collaborations with
qualified researchers............................................................................ 256

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS – 11
Abbreviations and acronyms
ACE Allowance for corporate equity
AETR Average effective tax rate
AMNE Activities of multinational enterprises database
AMTR Applicable marginal tax rate
ATAF African Tax Administration Forum
B2C Business-to-consumer
BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis
BEPS Base erosion and profit shifting
BMD3 Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, Third Edition
BMD4 Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, Fourth Edition
BOP Balance of payments
BvD Bureau van Dijk
CbCR Country-by-Country Reporting
CDIS Co-ordinated Direct Investment Survey
CFA Committee on Fiscal Affairs
CFC Controlled foreign corporations
CIAT Inter-American Centre of Tax Administrations
CIT Corporate income tax
CTJ Citizens for Tax Justice
EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes
EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
ECJ European Court of Justice
EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
ETR Effective tax rate
EPO European Patent Office
EU European Union
FDI Foreign direct investment
FISIM Financial services indirectly measured

12 – ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
FL-ATR Forward-looking average effective tax rates
FL-METR Forward-looking marginal effective tax rate
G20 Group of Twenty
GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
GAAR General anti-avoidance rules
GIE Gross interest expense
GDP Gross domestic product
GOS Gross operating surplus
HMRC Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs
ICTD Sussex University International Centre for Tax and Development
IFRS International Financial Reporting Standards
IMF International Monetary Fund
IP Intellectual property
IRS Internal Revenue Service
JCT United States Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation
KBC Knowledge based capital
LOB Limitation-on-benefits
MAP Mutual agreement procedure
MiDi Micro database on direct investment
MNE Multinational enterprise
MTR Marginal tax rate
NA National Accounts
NGO Non-government organisation
NIE Net interest expense
NOS Net operating surplus
NSO National statistical office
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PCT Patent Co-Operation Treaty
PE Permanent establishment
PPT Principal purposes test
R&D Research and development
SAAR Specific anti-avoidance rules
SOI Statistic of Income Division
SPE Special purpose entity

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS – 13
STAN Structural Analysis Database
STR Statutory tax rate
TFDE Task Force on the Digital Economy
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
USTPO United States Patent and Trademark Office
VAT Value-added tax
WHT Withholding tax
WIOD World Input-Output Database
WP Working Party
WTO World Trade Organization

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – 15
Executive summary
The adverse fiscal and economic impacts of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS)
have been the focus of the OECD/G20 BEPS Project since its inception. While anecdotal
evidence has shown that tax planning activities of some multinational enterprises (MNEs)
take advantage of the mismatches and gaps in the international tax rules, separating
taxable profits from the underlying value-creating activity, the Addressing Base Erosion
and Profit Shifting report (OECD, 2013) recognised that the scale of the negative global
impacts on economic activity and government revenues have been uncertain.
Although measuring the scale of BEPS proves challenging given the complexity of
BEPS and the serious data limitations, today we know that the fiscal effects of BEPS are
significant. The findings of the work performed since 2013 highlight the magnitude of the
issue, with global corporate income tax (CIT) revenue losses estimated between 4% and
10% of global CIT revenues, i.e. USD 100 to 240 billion annually. Given developing
countries’ greater reliance on CIT revenues, estimates of the impact on developing
countries, as a percentage of GDP, are higher than for developed countries.
In addition to significant tax revenue losses, BEPS causes other adverse economic
effects, including tilting the playing field in favour of tax-aggressive MNEs, exacerbating
the corporate debt bias, misdirecting foreign direct investment, and reducing the financing
of needed public infrastructure.
Six indicators of BEPS activity highlight BEPS behaviours using different sources of
data, employing different metrics, and examining different BEPS channels. When
combined and presented as a dashboard of indicators, they confirm the existence of
BEPS, and its continued increase in scale in recent years.
The profit rates of MNE affiliates located in lower-tax countries are higher than
their group’s average worldwide profit rate. For example, the profit rates reported
by MNE affiliates located in lower-tax countries are twice as high as their group’s
worldwide profit rate on average.
The effective tax rates paid by large MNE entities are estimated to be 4 to 8½
percentage points lower than similar enterprises with domestic-only operations,
tilting the playing-field against local businesses and non-tax aggressive MNEs,
although some of this may be due to MNEs’ greater utilisation of available country
tax preferences.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is increasingly concentrated. FDI in countries
with net FDI to GDP ratios of more than 200% increased from 38 times higher than
all other countries in 2005 to 99 times higher in 2012.
The separation of taxable profits from the location of the value creating activity
is particularly clear with respect to intangible assets, and the phenomenon has

16 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
grown rapidly. For example, the ratio of the value of royalties received to spending
on research and development in a group of low-tax countries was six times higher
than the average ratio for all other countries, and has increased three-fold between
2009 and 2012. Royalties received by entities located in these low-tax countries
accounted for 3% of total royalties, providing evidence of the existence of BEPS,
though not a direct measurement of the scale of BEPS.
Debt from both related and third-parties is more concentrated in MNE affiliates
in higher statutory tax-rate countries. The interest-to-income ratio for affiliates of
the largest global MNEs in higher-tax rate countries is almost three times higher
than their MNE’s worldwide third-party interest-to-income ratio.
Along with new empirical analysis of the fiscal and economic effects of BEPS and
hundreds of existing empirical studies that find the existence of profit shifting through
transfer mispricing, strategic location of intangibles and debt, as well as treaty abuse,
these BEPS indicators confirm that profit shifting is occurring, is significant in scale and
likely to be increasing, and creates adverse economic distortions. Furthermore, empirical
analysis indicates that BEPS adversely affects competition between businesses, levels and
location of debt, the location of intangible investments, and causes fiscal spillovers
between countries and wasteful and inefficient expenditure of resources on tax
engineering. The empirical analysis in this report, along with several academic studies,
confirms that strong anti-avoidance rules reduce profit shifting in countries that have
implemented them.
However, these indicators and all analyses of BEPS are severely constrained by the
limitations of the currently available data. The available data is not comprehensive across
countries or companies, and often does not include actual taxes paid. In addition to this,
the analyses of profit shifting to date have found it difficult to separate the effects of
BEPS from real economic factors and the effects of deliberate government tax policy
choices. Improving the tools and data available to measure BEPS will be critical for
measuring and monitoring BEPS in the future, as well as evaluating the impact of the
countermeasures developed under the BEPS Action Plan.
While recognising the need to maintain appropriate safeguards to protect the
confidentiality of taxpayer information, this report makes a number of recommendations
that will improve the analysis of available data. Some of the information needed to
improve the measurement and monitoring of BEPS is already collected by tax
administrations, but not analysed or made available for analysis. The focus of the report’s
recommendations in this area is on improved access to and enhanced analysis of existing
data, and new data proposed to be collected under Actions 5, 13 and, where implemented,
Action 12 of the BEPS Project.
The report recommends that the OECD work with governments to report and analyse
more corporate tax statistics and to present them in an internationally consistent way. For
example, statistical analyses based upon Country-by-Country Reporting data have the
potential to significantly enhance the economic analysis of BEPS. These improvements in
the availability of data will ensure that governments and researchers will, in the future, be
better able to measure and monitor BEPS and the actions taken to address BEPS.

1. ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING DATA SOURCES RELEVANT FOR BEPS ANALYSIS – 17
Chapter 1
Assessment of existing data sources relevant for BEPS analysis
Key points:
This chapter assesses a range of existing data sources with specific reference to the
availability and usefulness of existing data for the purposes of developing indicators
and undertaking an economic analysis of the scale and impact of BEPS and BEPS
countermeasures.
This chapter concludes that the significant limitations of existing data sources mean
that, at present, attempts to construct indicators or undertake an economic analysis of
the scale and impact of BEPS are severely constrained and, as such, should be heavily
qualified.
While there are several different private data sources and aggregated official sources
currently available to researchers, they are all affected by various limitations that
affect their usefulness for the purposes of analysing the scale and impact of BEPS and
BEPS countermeasures.
One of the key challenges with currently available data sources is that it is difficult for
researchers to disentangle real economic effects from the effects of BEPS-related
behaviours.
Private firm-level financial account databases are useful, but are not comprehensive in
their coverage, have significant limitations in their representativeness in some
countries, do not include all MNE entities and/or all of their associated financial
information, and do not have information about taxes actually paid.
Some of the limitations of the currently available data also affect the ability of
individual governments to analyse how BEPS impacts their economies and tax
revenues.
While tax return data covering all subsidiaries of MNEs are potentially the most
useful form of data, most countries do not have or make such data available for the
purposes of economic and statistical analysis, even on an anonymised or confidential
basis. For example, it is difficult to determine the share of total corporate income tax
paid by MNEs, relative to purely domestic companies, as currently very few countries
make such data available.
Recent parliamentary and government enquiries have shed new light on the tax affairs
of some high profile MNEs. While this information represents a rich and emerging
source of evidence of the existence of BEPS, such information relates to the activities
of a small number of MNEs and is of limited use in undertaking a broader analysis. In
some cases, this information is not included in the available firm-level financial
account databases, which highlights the inadequacy of relying exclusively upon them.
Separating real economic effects from tax effects requires both data and estimation
methodologies, since even with good data, BEPS is not observable and must be
estimated. Nevertheless, more comprehensive and more detailed data regarding MNEs
is needed to provide more accurate assessments of the scale and impact of BEPS.

18 – 1. ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING DATA SOURCES RELEVANT FOR BEPS ANALYSIS
1.1 Introduction
1. Assessing currently available data is an important part of BEPS Action 11.
Having a proper understanding of the available data and its limitations is a fundamental
issue for the development of indicators showing the scale and economic impact of BEPS,
as well as for the development of economic analyses of the scale and impact of BEPS and
2. It cannot be overemphasised that the results obtained from any analysis are only
as robust as the data and methodology underpinning them. This is particularly true in the
case of analysing BEPS, since BEPS involves multinational enterprises (MNEs) that can
establish intra-group arrangements that achieve no or low taxation by shifting profits
away from jurisdictions where the activities creating the profits are taking place. These
intra-group cross-border arrangements are often very complex, involving multiple related
entities, and related party transactions are typically not separately identifiable (and
available) in tax or financial account databases.
3. Hence, it is crucial to establish an understanding of the currently available data –
what is available; the coverage and representativeness of that data; whether it is tax return
or financial account data; whether it is macro or micro-level data; its reliability and
robustness (what quality control measures are in place for the data collection); whether it
is comparable across jurisdictions; and who has access to it.
4. This chapter provides an initial assessment of the data currently available for
analysing BEPS and BEPS countermeasures, which is relevant to both the development
of potential indicators and the undertaking of refined economic and statistical analyses. It
is important to note that most analyses, including government policy analyses and
decisions, are made with partial information. For policymakers, using available data to
conduct some analysis is better than working without empirical-based evidence at all, but
such analyses must also recognise the limitations of currently available data and how
those limitations may affect the reported results.
5. The purpose of the assessment undertaken in this chapter is to describe what is
available, as well as outline the benefits and limitations of the different types of data.
Based on this assessment, Action 11 also involves the identification of new types of tools
and data that should be collected in the future. New data could include capitalising on
existing data that is currently unavailable, either due to confidentiality reasons or because
it is not currently processed or analysed, as well as additional information needed for
monitoring BEPS in the future, taking into account ways to reduce administrative costs
for tax administrations and businesses. A detailed discussion of potential new tools and
data is set out in Chapter 4.
1.2 Potential criteria for evaluating available data for BEPS research
6. An assessment requires establishing a set of criteria to be used for evaluating the
different types of data with respect to their usefulness for analysing BEPS. Having a
thorough understanding of the available data will provide a solid base for working
towards ‘best practices’ in future data collection to 'fill the gaps' and strive for more
comprehensive data and comparability across countries, recognising the trade-offs
between the objectives of improved tax policy analysis and the need to minimise
administrative costs for tax administrations and businesses.
7. Box 1.1 briefly outlines a set of criteria that could be considered.

Box 1.1. Criteria for assessing data
Coverage/Representativeness – BEPS is a global issue and significant profit shifting may occur
through “small” entities with large profits but with little economic activity. Determining the
coverage and representativeness of the underlying data is critical to assessing the results of any
analysis. Most databases are limited to individual countries or a region, and there is no truly
comprehensive global database of MNE activity.
Usefulness for separating real economic effects from tax effects – Separating BEPS-related
activity from real economic activity is important, but must be estimated. National Accounts and
macroeconomic statistics, such as foreign direct investment data, combine both real and BEPS-
related activity. Firm-level data provides researchers with more information to attempt to more
accurately separate BEPS-related activities from a firm’s real economic activities.
Ability to focus on specific BEPS activity – BEPS is driven by practices that artificially
segregate taxable income from the real economic activities that generate it. A MNE’s financial
profile can be very different between financial and tax accounts. Differences in financial and
taxable income can be large, and the country of taxation can differ from the firm’s country of
incorporation. In some cases, specific tax information may be available for a limited number of
MNEs from specific parliamentary enquiries.
Level of detail – As BEPS behaviours involve cross-border transactions, typically between
related parties, information on related and unrelated party transactions should be used when
available. Affiliate-level information should supplement worldwide consolidated group
information when available. Different types of foreign direct investment data should be used
when available.
Timeliness – Access to timely information enables policymakers to monitor and evaluate the
changes in the BEPS environment and the effects of legislation. If the time lag is too long,
empirical analysis may be more of an historical assessment, rather than an analysis of recent
developments.
Access – Many BEPS behaviours cannot be identified as specific entries on tax returns or
financial accounts. Analysis of the data is required to separate BEPS behaviours from real
economic activity. Thus, policymakers need economic analyses of BEPS and BEPS
countermeasures, rather than just compilations of descriptive statistics. The extent to which
access to data is provided to statisticians and economists within government, and potentially
outside of government, with strict confidentiality rules, represents an important policy issue.
8. Coverage/Representativeness: BEPS is a global issue so comprehensive coverage
across all countries would be ideal. Many macro-level aggregate data are available for
most countries. Coverage of the entities that form part of MNEs is an important issue. A
number of firm-level databases are available for individual countries, and the few private
“global” databases are increasing coverage across multiple countries.
9. Even where data for a particular country exists, coverage issues may continue to
complicate a rigorous assessment of BEPS. One aspect concerns the coverage of financial
information for the entities included in the firm-level databases. Missing financial
information may have an equally detrimental effect on an analysis as if the entity were
not included in the database. Aggregation of financial information in respect of entities
within MNE groups can also distort and limit the analysis.
10. Incomplete coverage of firms for any number of reasons means that the data
collected may be from a non-random sample and so, potentially, a non-representative
sample of firms. Extrapolating results beyond a non-random sample has limitations which

may be partially addressed by weighting or sensitivity analysis. This is likely to be a
significant issue in the analysis of BEPS because of the potential concentration of BEPS
in certain types of entities (e.g. located in low or no-tax countries). This is particularly
problematic if those entities engaging in more BEPS-related behaviours are more likely to
avoid or minimise the disclosure of relevant financial information.
11. Tax return information is generally filed only for entities that have a taxable
presence in a country. Some countries may require foreign-owned companies that have a
physical presence in the country, but not a tax presence, to register with a designated
body. Many countries’ tax administrations do not have information about the other
affiliates of a MNE group, other than those with a permanent establishment in the
country. For example, in South Africa, a foreign company that is physically present in
South Africa must register as an external company with the Companies and Intellectual
Property Commission. External companies do not have to file annual financial reports
with the Commission, but the South African Revenue Service could obtain a list of these
companies from the Commission. Many countries have entered into bilateral or
multilateral Double Taxation Agreements and Exchange of Information Agreements that
enable them to exchange information as well as conduct simultaneous or joint audits on a
taxpayer.
12. Usefulness for separating real economic effects from tax effects: BEPS is a tax
issue with financial and economic ramifications. As noted below, BEPS affects the
reported taxes, but also affects many non-tax variables, including macroeconomic
aggregates, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or foreign direct investment (FDI), and
firm-level/group financial information, such as reported financial profits or tax return
information.
13. Estimating the effects of BEPS requires disentangling real economic activity
across countries from tax-related (and specifically BEPS-related) behaviours across
countries. In fact, there are three different categories of effects that ideally would be
separately estimated: (i) real economic activity across countries independent of tax; (ii)
real economic activity across countries influenced by differences in non-BEPS-affected
tax rates (e.g. responsiveness of capital investment to a change in a country’s effective tax
rate); and (iii) BEPS-related activities across countries that include financial flows, legal
contracts and structuring to shift profits away from where value is generated. In some
cases, the structuring involves placing just enough economic activity (staff and functions
for example) in a jurisdiction to attempt to justify the tax minimisation strategy. Only
category (iii) effects should be attributed to BEPS.
14. Macroeconomic aggregates, such as FDI include both real and BEPS-related
investment and returns, which are difficult or impossible to separate. In their current
reporting of FDI, most countries have not been able to separate FDI related to real
investment (greenfield and expansion investment) from financial transactions (mergers
and acquisitions and the accumulation of reinvested earnings). While BEPS behaviours
are more likely to be concentrated in the latter, there could be instances where, for
example, a small operational facility (greenfield investment) is set up in a foreign
jurisdiction with the main purpose of justifying a BEPS arrangement under current
national rules. In addition, financial transactions may take place for legitimate business
reasons and should not be automatically associated with BEPS.
15. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)1
recently conducted a project on bilateral
asymmetries in FDI reporting for the Co-ordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). The
project confirmed that methodological differences and insufficient data coverage are the

main reasons for bilateral asymmetries. Bilateral data on transactions other than FDI are
also important for analysing BEPS, for example trade in goods and services, royalty
payments and payments/receipts for services (e.g. legal, management and accounting
services). Coverage of bilateral flows between non-OECD/G20 countries and countries
with low corporate tax rates is often missing.2
Bilateral information does not provide
analysts with a view of the full chain of a transaction including the origin, transit points
and the final destination.3
Being able to see more than the first destination is important
given that many flows are routed via special purpose entities (SPEs) for tax-motivated
reasons.
16. The 4th
edition of the OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment
(BMD4) recommends that countries explicitly separate FDI statistics on SPEs and non-
SPEs for reporting purposes, which will result in more meaningful measures of real FDI.
Separate reporting of flows through SPEs also identifies particular financial flows, which
in some cases have facilitated BEPS behaviours. With the implementation of the latest
standards, nine countries (in addition to the four that have done so for several years) have
now reported data separating resident SPEs. More data will become available as more
countries are included in the new OECD database of FDI statistics later in 2015.4
17. Micro-level data makes separating real and BEPS-related effects more likely,
since individual firm data allows adjustment for industry, size of company, situation in
the MNE group, and other non-BEPS tainted variables. In other words, analysis with
micro-level data makes it possible to identify and control for more, but not necessarily all,
non-tax characteristics of both affiliated firms and MNE groups that could affect BEPS.
18. Ability to focus on specific BEPS activity: Differences between tax return and
financial account data represent an important limitation affecting the use of non-tax
financial account information for analysis of tax policy issues generally and BEPS
specifically. This is likely to be amplified in instances where an entity’s financial profile
reported for accounting purposes does not correlate with its economic value-add in the
jurisdiction in which it resides (particularly for subsidiaries of foreign headquartered
MNEs and unlisted domestically headquartered MNEs). There are three main examples
of such book/tax differences. Firstly, book/tax income differences can include permanent
exemption of intragroup dividends and timing differences such as accelerated tax
depreciation. Companies in a MNE group report financial profits that include exempt
intragroup dividends. Differences between the tax consolidation rules and the statutory
accounting consolidation rules can affect consolidated accounts.
19. A second book/tax difference relevant to BEPS analysis is the tax residence of the
company compared to the country of incorporation, where financial reporting is required.5
Due to differences in international tax rules, some companies have tax residence in a
country other than the country of incorporation, or in some cases companies have been
able to exploit mismatches between the tax laws of different countries with the result
being that they are not tax residents of any country. Also, financial accounts generally do
not show the sales or income of an entity across different countries, so analyses generally
assign all of the sales and income to the country of incorporation. For example, a branch
of a company could be earning income in a low-tax rate country, yet it is reported as
income of the company incorporated in a high-tax country, thus distorting both the
location of profits and the measure of the tax rate.
20. A third book/tax difference is the actual tax variable. Financial statement accounts
under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) or Generally Accepted
Accounting Principles (GAAP) include tax expense, which is an accrual measure of tax

associated with current year income, and which includes both current and deferred
income tax expense.6
For a constantly growing company, deferred income tax expense
may also accumulate over long periods, resulting in a near zero effective tax rate. For
example, if three subsidiaries of a MNE are operating in different countries, all of which
have accelerated tax depreciation allowances for capital spending, an expansion in capital
investment over a ten year period could result in a build-up of significant deferred tax
liabilities (for accounting purposes). Also, deferred tax expense can accumulate into
deferred tax assets (e.g. tax credit carry forwards) or deferred tax liabilities (e.g.
accelerated depreciation), which are affected by changes in future statutory tax rates. The
total tax expense will be affected by a one-off change in the year that statutory tax rates
are changed, due to a re-evaluation of the deferred tax asset or liability. Cash income tax
payments are sometimes reported, but cash tax payments may reflect tax from current and
prior years and potentially interest and penalties. A further discrepancy could arise if the
amount of tax reflected in financial statements includes amounts that would not ordinarily
be regarded as tax on profits. For example, where resource royalties are treated as a tax
expense rather than (or as well as) a deductible cost of inputs.
21. In addition, many BEPS strategies cannot be observed directly in financial
(accounting) statements, as they rely on heterogeneous classification of legal forms,
financing contracts and companies’ residence by tax authorities.7
22. Current tax return information is not a panacea for all the problems facing an
analysis of BEPS. Individual country tax administrators or their tax policy analysis
agencies with access to tax return information will only have information included in the
tax returns filed in their country. In many cases, this will not include returns for other
entities of the worldwide group that do not have to file returns in the country. Detailed
information about intra-group related party transactions may not be included since it may
not have been requested or may not be required for the computation of tax liability (the
latter limitation being legally binding for tax authorities in some countries with respect to
the information that can be requested). An additional issue is that all of the information
reported on corporate income tax returns may not be included in a database processed
from the tax returns (e.g. often only information specific to the calculation of tax liability
is included, so information from the balance sheet, which could be helpful in the analysis
of BEPS, may not be processed).
23. Level of detail: The use of firm-level financial account and tax return data is more
likely to allow for the separation of real economic activity from BEPS and focusing on
specific BEPS behaviours. With respect to financial account data, the use of
unconsolidated financial account data in combination with consolidated financial account
data provides further insights. Where available, information on related party transactions
should be used in analysing BEPS. For example, group worldwide leverage and interest
expense ratios only include external third-party borrowing. Related party borrowing,
which is a significant BEPS channel, does not show up in the consolidated group
worldwide financial accounts. Related party borrowing is reflected in unconsolidated
affiliates’ financial accounts, but is generally not separately reported in financial
accounts. Concerning tax return data, using micro-level data to understand the
heterogeneity of individual firms and BEPS behaviours is preferable to aggregated tax
statistics where deviations from the average are masked.
24. Timeliness of the information: Access to timely information will enable
policymakers to respond faster in countering new BEPS channels that may arise over
time. If the time lag is too long, the analysis undertaken will be of more historical interest

than for policy action purposes. Financial statement information is publicly available
annually, often 2-4 months after the firms’ fiscal year has closed. Tax return information
is often not filed until late the following year, and the processing of the tax return
information for analysis purposes is often two years after the calendar year.
25. Access to the information: MNEs file tax and regulatory reports with
governments, and those tax reports are available to the tax administration agency. In
many countries, the confidentiality of the tax return data prevents any sharing of the
information beyond the tax administration agency. Thus government tax policy analysis
outside of the tax administration may be limited to specific requests for anonymised
records or aggregate statistics. Non-government access to corporate tax return records is
typically not permitted, except for a few countries and only for strictly controlled research
projects with strict confidentiality rules. Aggregate corporate tax return data is published
by a number of countries, including information by industry and for certain taxpayer
attributes such as total assets or total revenue. Based on information collected in a recent
OECD Committee on Fiscal Affairs (CFA) WP2 on Tax Policy Analysis and Tax
Statistics (WP2) survey, only eight of the 37 respondent countries were able to provide
data on MNEs’ share of corporate income tax revenues.
26. Other data issues: There are many other data issues that reduce the signal-to-
noise ratio (real information content) of any empirical tax policy analysis. Analysis must
be undertaken with available data, but the analysts and users of the analysis should be
aware of the data limitations. A few of the additional data issues related to BEPS analysis
include:
Balance sheets typically reflect purchased intangibles only, since for both tax and
financial accounting most expenditures for intangible investments are deducted
immediately (expensed) rather than capitalised;
Intangibles are not limited to intellectual property, such as patents, trademarks and
copyrights, but may also include other important items, such as trade names,
brands, assembled workforce, and managerial systems, that are important to take
into account when considering the sources of real economic activity and value
creation;
Headline statutory tax rates are often not the tax rate applicable at the margin of
BEPS behaviour, due to specific country tax rules or administrative practices;
Effective tax rates, both tax paid and financial tax expense, can also reflect specific
non-BEPS related incentives, such as R&D tax credits;
Available data may be collected through a sampling process to reduce the burden
on respondents and the processing costs, but this raises issues of appropriate
weighting;
Existing data collection and processing may capture previous profit shifting
structures and transactions, but may not capture recent and new structures and
transactions to shift profits; and
Recent data may be impacted by the financial crisis and changing macroeconomic
conditions and may not be directly comparable to previous conditions.

1.3 Currently available data for BEPS analysis
27. Table 1.1 below provides an overview of 11 different types of data sources that
have been used to analyse BEPS. It is based on responses to the Action 11 Request for
Input, as well as discussions with academics and CFA WP2 delegates. The data sources
range from macro aggregate statistics to micro firm/group level statistics; tax return data;
financial account statistics; and detailed reports of individual MNEs.
Table 1.1. Overview of the current data sources
MACRO
National Accounts
(NA)
This information measures the economic activity in a country and
includes variables such as operating surplus, which may be used in
BEPS analysis. It is easily accessible from international
organisations, such as the OECD and the IMF. However, the
underlying information used to construct the data is itself tainted by
BEPS behaviours - meaning that even widely used measures such
as GDP will be distorted by a BEPS component that is difficult to
disentangle. There are significant definitional differences between
National Accounts and tax data.
Balance of
Payments (BOP)
BOP statistics include all monetary transactions between a country
and the rest of the world, including payments for exports and imports
of goods, services, financial capital and financial transfers. This
encompasses information on flows widely used to shift profits, such
as purchases and sales of trading stock and services, royalties and
interest. It is accessible (from the IMF and the World Bank, for
example), but does not distinguish between transactions respecting
the arm's length principle and manipulated transactions.
Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI)
FDI statistics cover all cross-border stocks and flows between
enterprises forming part of the same group, including (i) direct
investment (equity or debt) positions; (ii) direct investment financial
flows (equity, reinvestment of earnings, debt); and (iii) direct
investment income flows (dividends, distributed branch profits,
interest). The IMF only reports on FDI positions, not flows, and the
amount of information available from individual countries differs. The
OECD has statistics on FDI positions, income and flows, but there
are currently gaps and inconsistencies.
While not directly related to the scale / revenue loss attributed to
BEPS, FDI data depicts intra-group cross-border transactions that
can provide at least indirect evidence of profit shifting by analysing
the disconnect between the amount of FDI and the size of the
economy, or the concentration of FDI in countries with a low effective
tax burden on corporations. There are several issues with FDI data,
including bilateral asymmetries in the capturing of the same FDI
transaction and different types of transactions (e.g. greenfield
investment, mergers & acquisitions, intra-group financing). There is
also no distinction between real and purely financial investment,
which would allow for a comparison that is highly relevant for an
analysis of BEPS. Changes in data coverage over time can affect
trends in macroeconomic variables, e.g. FDI.
Trade Aggregate data on bilateral trade by product can be used to analyse
profit shifting through mispricing. This is accessible from the United
Nations Comtrade database and the OECD database on intermediate
trade in goods and services. There can be large discrepancies
between figures reported for the same bilateral trade flow by the
importing and exporting country (and non-trivial measurement issues
concerning quantity and current price trade data). In addition, any re-
invoicing arrangements using low-tax jurisdictions as conduits in the
supply chain to extract a margin will distort the pricing between
suppliers and related party purchasers.

The CEPALSTAT database covers some Latin American countries,
but there is no differentiation between related and non-related
parties. The raw underlying customs data (expanded on in the micro
data section) used for merchandise trade statistics may also show, in
some countries, separate figures for trade between affiliated parties.
There is no database equivalent to Comtrade for trade in services, an
important element for BEPS analysis. Trade in services by country is
usually available with data segregated by royalty payments and
entrepreneurial services, among others, but the availability of data
and the level of detail differ between countries. In addition, the
service component of trade flows (which includes royalties and other
payments for the use of IP) is likely to be underestimated due to the
underreporting and mispricing of IP.
There often appears to be some difficulty in practice in how National
Statistics Offices differentiate between payments recorded as trade in
services and payments recorded as primary income flows in the
BOP, which can result in significant differences in bilateral trade
statistics.
Corporate income
tax (CIT) revenue
Aggregate tax revenue data is accessible from international
organisations (OECD Revenue Statistics, IMF Government Finance
Statistics and World Bank Global Development Indicators) and often
from National Accounts and tax authorities. It is typically used to
estimate CIT-to-GDP ratios, for example, as well as implicit tax rates
(ratios of CIT revenues to a proxy CIT base taken from the National
Accounts). However, the biggest drawback is comparability across
countries, particularly between developed and developing countries.
Often, there is no clear distinction between national and subnational
revenue, the relative size of the corporate taxed sector, or between
resource and non-resource revenue. The lack of detail and
consistency is an important issue for developing countries and,
because BEPS involves cross-border transactions with all countries,
comparable data for both developed and developing countries, is
critical.
Recently available data from the International Centre for Tax and
Development (ICTD) improves comparability of data for developing
countries.
8
The OECD Revenue Statistics presents a unique set of
detailed and internationally comparable tax data in a common format
for all OECD countries from 1965 onwards. The Revenue Statistics
has been expanded to include non-OECD countries in other regions
which enhances comparability across a wider range of countries.
MICRO
Customs (trade)
data
Customs data is a useful source for understanding the mispricing of
traded goods and services. This is an important component for
understanding transfer pricing behaviour by related parties. As noted
in the macro-section, the service component of trade flows (which
includes royalties and other payments for the use of IP) is likely to be
underestimated due to the underreporting and mispricing of IP.
Availability of such data is country specific and not available in many
countries. Studies in France and the United States have measured
pricing differences between related and non-related parties, by
country of destination and product characteristics.
Company financial
information from
public / proprietary
databases
This information can be sourced from published financial statements
of MNEs, open-access sources such as OpenCorporates, and
commercial databases (e.g. Bureau van Dijk (Bvd) ORBIS and
Amadeus, S&P Compustat Global Vantage, Bloomberg, Oriana,
Osiris, OneSource, Mergent, Alibaba.com, SPARK, DataGuru.in,
Ruslana). Companies (at least public companies) are typically
obliged to publish financial statements (consolidated and/or
unconsolidated). Problems with the suitability of this data for BEPS
analysis include: different reporting requirements for accounting and

MICRO
(continued)
tax purposes, no distinction between related party and independent
party transactions, coverage that is far from comprehensive, and the
heterogeneity of reporting across countries and companies.
Databases that consolidate companies’ balance sheet and income
account data are improving their coverage over time, but still have
weak coverage of developing countries in particular
9
, but also of
some OECD countries
10
, such as Germany. This is because data
availability in larger datasets depends on underlying national sources.
A further drawback is the level of consolidation available for some
countries. Company financial statements are used in research on
profit shifting through debt financing, for example
11
. An important
limitation in these studies is the limited country coverage and
comparability across countries.
Company financial
information from
government
databases
Detailed financial information is available (although with limitations
applying to access) from publicly administered databases such as the
United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and German
Bundesbank MiDi database. In some other countries, access to data
via research centres or via controlled remote-access/execution is
also being considered.
Tax return CIT
information
A range of financial and tax information is available to tax authorities
as companies are required to file a tax return. The extent of
information reported to the tax administration varies across countries.
In some countries, there are strict rules limiting the reported
information to that required for the calculation of tax liability only; in
other countries, companies are required to file broader information
used for risk analysis such as data on foreign subsidiaries. Many
governments do not report corporate tax revenues separately for
MNEs and purely domestic companies from tax returns, and have no
systematic data regarding intra-group transactions.
Some countries publish tax statistics that show the data in aggregate
or by sector. Full access to the detailed micro-level company tax data
is generally restricted to tax authorities, made available often on
specific request for tax policy analysis, and in a few countries to
outside researchers under strict confidentiality conditions.
Tax audit
information
Information from audits of tax return filings, both assessments and
settlements, has been cited as a potential source of information about
BEPS. This source of information is generally not available for tax
policy analysis, even on an aggregated basis,
Detailed specific
company tax
information
The specifics of individual MNEs’ tax situations are becoming public
through legislative enquiries, such as in the United Kingdom, the
United States and more recently Australia. More granular tax
information than what is available from the MNEs’ financial
statements or from global databases (for these companies) has
become available.
The European Commission has also launched a series of in-depth
investigations into specific tax rulings and regimes that could be
considered as EU State Aid to MNEs.
1.4 Initial assessment of currently available data for analysing BEPS
28. Analysis of BEPS requires identifying where MNE behaviours or arrangements
“achieve no or low taxation by shifting profits away from jurisdictions where the
activities creating those profits take place. No or low taxation is not per se a cause of
concern, but it becomes so when it is associated with practices that artificially segregate
taxable income from the activities that generate it.’’ This description of BEPS is
important in assessing the currently available data.
29. Firm-level data is needed for the best analysis of BEPS. Among the economic
community, there is general agreement that the increased availability and use of firm-

level data is an important improvement in analysing BEPS. Earlier studies of macro
aggregate-level statistics found very large reported effects of profit shifting due to tax rate
differentials, but aggregate-level statistics are less able to separate real economic activity
from BEPS behaviours. Dharmapala (2014) presents a good summary of the existing
economic empirical literature and how micro-level analysis better refines the analysis of
profit shifting. Academic estimates of the responsiveness of profit shifting to tax rate
differentials are generally lower from firm-level financial data than from macro level data
or tax return data.
30. As mentioned earlier, publicly-available, private-source micro data has limitations
in analysing BEPS. The proprietary databases integrate publicly-available financial
information reported to various governmental agencies. The coverage and completeness
of the data varies significantly across countries. In addition, the available financial
information reflects accounting concepts, not tax return concepts. As a result, these
databases still provide only indirect information about the presence of BEPS (tax return
data would provide a more direct source of information and could be used in conjunction
with relevant financial accounts databases). In addition, the ability of researchers using
this firm-level data to isolate BEPS depends critically upon the empirical methods used to
control for any differences in profitability explained by real economic factors.
31. National Accounts statistics, such as FDI and royalty payments, can provide some
insights into transactions that can be part of arrangements to shift profits, so can thus be
potential indicators of the scale of BEPS, but better estimates of the scale and economic
effects of BEPS require micro-level data (importantly, the same micro data used to create
the National Accounts). Improving the data and analysis of BEPS is also important for
sound, evidence-based fiscal and monetary policies – government policymakers (fiscal)
and central banks (monetary) rely heavily on macroeconomic statistics that are currently
tainted by BEPS behaviours (Lipsey, 2010).
32. Figure 1.1 illustrates how BEPS behaviours affect corporate tax payments and
company financial accounts, and also countries’ National Accounts. Company A is
located in Country A that has a statutory tax rate of 30%, while Company B, its affiliate,
is located in Country B with a statutory tax rate of 10%. Company B sells goods to
Company A for 150 that would have been sold for 100 to an independent party. As a
result, the sales in Company B are overstated by 50 while the purchases in Company A
are overstated by 50. This has ramifications for the value added measures in the National
Accounts by overstating value added in Country B and understating valued added in
Country A. This example shows how BEPS behaviours can distort GDP figures across
countries. Only very few National Statistical Offices are able to adjust even partly for this
distortion, especially in cases concerning payments for (if recorded) and transfers of
intellectual property. The extent to which currently available data is tainted by BEPS is
likely to be reduced over time, ultimately leading to more accurate statistics.

Figure 1.1. Example of non-arm’s length transfer pricing affecting National Accounts and
firm-level reports
33. More complete information about global MNE activity is needed to analyse
BEPS. The analysis of BEPS would benefit from seeing the complete picture of the
activities of the MNE and its related entities. In particular, the ability to identify the
financial and taxation impacts of the activities of related entities relative to the economic
contributions made to the global value chain by the entities in each jurisdiction. Many tax
administrations currently only receive tax returns for the MNE entities required to file
taxes in their country. They might not have access to information about related party
affiliates undertaking transactions with the taxpayer in their country. The incomplete
picture can often result in BEPS behaviours not being transparent for identification and
quantification. Similarly, an incomplete picture of a MNE’s financial arrangements can
obscure BEPS behaviours from researchers using financial accounts.
34. Incomplete coverage of a MNE’s economic activity across countries is
particularly problematic for analysis of BEPS if the coverage is non-random. In that case,
the sample of business entities may not be representative of the overall population. The
potential for non-representativeness in analysing BEPS is likely to occur in two particular
situations.
35. First, if the missing businesses or activities are in either high-tax rate or low-tax
rate countries. Since BEPS typically involves profit shifting from high-tax to low-tax or
no-tax rate countries, arrangements to segregate profits from real economic activity
would be most likely to show up in those entities. For example, large reported profits in
no-tax countries, where there is little if any real economic activity or value creation would
be a result of BEPS.
36. Second, entities engaged in BEPS behaviours may be less likely to report any
corporate holdings, offshore structures or activity that could highlight their BEPS actions
to tax authorities or publicly available sources, where their activities may become subject
to media and public attention. This may be because there is often discretion in some of
the public reporting (e.g. materiality exceptions), or the penalties for non-reporting may

be small relative to the benefits of avoiding disclosure of tax and financial information
that may include evidence of BEPS behaviours. Hoopes (2015) summarises academic
research on issues of disclosure and transparency, including several studies12
with regard
to geographic/segment reporting, which have found selective disclosure particularly by
tax aggressive MNEs.
37. It should also be noted that some MNEs are voluntarily becoming more
transparent in their tax reporting. The driving forces behind this include the Extractive
Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), requirements by the European Commission,
increasing public and government scrutiny that may affect reputation, and good
governance motives.
38. An additional concern about incomplete coverage and lack of representation
arises if BEPS behaviours differ across countries (e.g. R&D intensive countries may be
more susceptible to BEPS behaviours involving intangibles while other countries may be
more affected by financial restructuring13
), but the available data is not sufficiently
representative of the population such that it can capture the differences. Lack of
representation has been noted by Cobham and Loretz (2014)14
with respect to tax policy
analysis of developing countries. A recent IMF analysis concluded that developing
countries are likely to have significantly higher BEPS concerns than developed countries
due to lower tax administrative capacity to stop BEPS behaviours. Also, many studies of
profit shifting are based on the Amadeus database, which includes only European
countries, so the results may not be applicable to non-European countries.
39. The most comprehensive (and widely-used by researchers) global database is the
proprietary BvD ORBIS database. It is an extensive database of almost 100 million
financial accounts from many countries, and is being continually updated, expanded and
improved. Although a useful global database, it has limitations,15
and is based upon
financial account rather than tax return data. With respect to its representativeness for the
purposes of BEPS empirical analysis, Cobham and Loretz (2014) note the Eurocentric
nature of the sample and its weakness in coverage of low-income countries. Table 1.2 is a
summary of the Cobham and Loretz data analysis, plus a comparison to the geographic
distribution of both the Fortune Global 500 MNE groups and GDP.

Table 1.2. Regional distribution of MNE subsidiaries in ORBIS by location of subsidiary and
group headquarters, compared with regional distribution of top 500 MNE groups and GDP,
2011
Source: Cobham, A. & Loretz, S. 2014. International distribution of the corporate tax base: Implications of
different apportionment factors under unitary taxation
40. For example, Table 1.2 shows that MNEs headquartered in Europe accounted for
69% of the affiliates in the ORBIS database; in comparison, MNEs from the rest of the
world accounted for only 31%. Of the total affiliates with key financial information
included, 78% were in Europe, while 22% were located in the rest of the world. This is
only a summary of the number of firms, and does not indicate how representative the
database is in terms of economic activity or taxes. The lack of representative data is likely
to be worse for developing countries. Furthermore, it does not indicate whether actual
data is available for all the firms included.
41. Many academic studies have observed and estimated the existence of profit
shifting (including profit shifting from specific BEPS channels) with limited financial
account data, and in a few cases using tax return data, as described in Chapter 3.
Importantly, these studies find that BEPS is occurring and the extent of BEPS is large and
statistically significant. The limitations of the currently available data are problematic in
estimating the global scale and economic impact of BEPS. There is concern that sample
selection may result in underestimation of findings on aggregate profit shifting.16
Other
studies include both BEPS and individual tax evasion in their analyses of BEPS and are
thus likely to overstate the scale of BEPS.
42. Recent public enquiries by legislative and/or parliamentary committees, such as in
the United Kingdom, the United States, and more recently Australia, into the tax
strategies of some high profile MNEs, have shed significant light on the tax affairs of the
affected parent companies and their affiliates.17
In addition, The European Commission
has launched a series of in-depth investigations into specific tax regimes that could be
considered as EU State Aid to MNEs.18
Investigative journalism has also brought much
useful information into the public domain.
43. What is striking is that when one looks into the micro data available, much of this
newly revealed information does not appear to be visible – either because certain
affiliates are not included or, where they are included, the financial information is
missing. This reveals a clear disconnect between the information revealed through
Europe
North
America Australasia
Latin &
Central
America &
Caribbean
Middle East
& Africa Total
Europe 208,048 9,933 3,451 1,465 835 223,732 69%
North America 28,901 23,095 2,363 803 125 55,287 17%
Australasia 9,303 4,624 20,318 276 84 34,605 11%
Latin & Central America & Caribbean 3,910 556 432 672 11 5,581 2%
Middle East & Africa 2,349 297 75 32 567 3,320 1%
Total 252,511 38,505 26,639 3,248 1,622 322,525 100%
% Representation by location of subsidiary 78% 12% 8% 1% 1% 100%
Fortune Global 500
1
29% 28% 41% 3% 0% 100%
GDP
2
27% 24% 34% 8% 7% 100%
Notes:
1. Regional distribution of top 500 companies in 2014 (Fortune Magazine)
2. GDP from IMF (current 2011 prices; 2011 used to compare with latest year used by Cobham and Loretz from Orbis)
Location of Subsidiary
Location of the group headquarters
%
Representation
by location of
group
headquarter

targeted public enquiries of some MNEs and the limited available tax information for
those same MNEs from consolidated financial statements. Box 1.2 explains this further.
Box 1.2. Public enquiries reveal data missing from many academic studies
Evidence emerging from several recent public enquiries into the tax affairs of a number of high
profile MNEs reveals clear deficiencies in the available data sources used by researchers in
analysing BEPS. The public enquiries revealed new information on the earnings, structure and
tax affairs of parent companies and their affiliates. The table below shows an example of one of
the MNE’s reported pre-tax income.
The parent company, X, located in a high-tax jurisdiction, reported between 29 and 43 percent of
pre-tax earnings for the years 2009 to 2011. X’s affiliate, Y, located in a low-tax jurisdiction,
earned nearly two-thirds of the group’s total pre-tax income in 2010 and 2011, and half of the
total in 2009.
Global Distribution of Specific MNE reported Earnings:
Pre-tax income
Entity Location 2011 2010 2009
% % %
X (Parent) High tax
country
31 29 43
Y (Affiliate) Low tax
country
64 65 50
Other 5 6 7
Total 100 100 100
While Affiliate Y earned the majority of the pre-tax income, it paid virtually no taxes to any
government for these three years. Due to different rules for determining tax residence, a key
entity incorporated in the low-tax country was not taxable in any country. Thus, several tens of
billions of the parent’s local currency were only taxed at a 0.06% tax rate over three years.
In a micro database used by many researchers to analyse BEPS, the financial information for the
key affiliate (Y) in the low tax country was missing. This reveals a clear disconnect between the
information revealed through targeted public enquiries of some MNEs and the incomplete
available financial information for those same MNEs from financial accounts. Much of the
important information for tax analysis is simply absent. The fact that such observed instances of
BEPS are not visible in firm-level financial account databases highlights concerns regarding the
reliability and representativeness of one of the most frequently used existing data sources.
44. Additional analysis of tax return information is needed. As noted above,
significant differences exist between tax return information and financial accounts, which
make financial account information problematic as a sole source for analysing BEPS,
even if it was comprehensive.
45. Tax return information submitted to individual countries is also not
comprehensive in terms of the full picture of the MNE group, but it is less likely to be
subject to underreporting due to the significant financial penalties for tax non-
compliance. Tax return data will have accurate information about the country of tax
residence, taxable income, tax paid, tax credits, and tax consolidation, which reduces
significant noise present in financial accounts. Information obtained from tax audits can
identify new types of BEPS behaviours, and could potentially be used if compiled and
analysed systematically to monitor BEPS behaviours in the future.19

46. Although significant data from tax returns is provided to tax administrations by
companies, much of the data is not processed and incorporated in databases for tax policy
analysis purposes. In a survey by the OECD CFA WP2, a majority of countries cited lack
of data as the key constraint in analysing BEPS. Most of the 37 respondent countries
reported that corporate tax returns are in a database, although corporate tax data for tax
policy analysis is often available in aggregate form or upon request for individual
companies. Only eight countries were able to report the aggregate corporate income tax
collections from MNEs. Thus, although corporate tax return data has been provided by
companies to government tax administrations, it is not currently available in easily
accessible form for tax policy analysis.
47. Making the most of available information and identifying gaps. Companies and
governments are being required to do more with less under tight budgetary constraints.
Compliance burdens and tax administrative costs are significant, and additional
information should only be requested and processed if the benefits exceed the costs.
Information collection where possible should be aligned to current recordkeeping and
reporting of MNE business to assure better data integrity and minimise compliance costs.
48. Much of the academic work that has been done and the interest shown in doing
more is constrained by lack of access to micro data that is representative of entities in an
individual country or across countries, and that is not missing critical information. This is
equally true in some instances for government analysts, who could do more tax policy
analysis with access to better data, but in many countries the degree of granularity (for
example, separating MNEs from purely domestic corporations) is not sufficient, and
availability of disaggregated data is quite different across countries.
49. In many cases, information has been provided by businesses to tax
administrations, but the data are not processed and are not presently available for tax
policy analysis. The amount and detail of data currently made available for tax policy
analysis of BEPS behaviours differs across countries. Policy making could be better
informed with knowledge of, for example, corporate taxable income, income subject to
lower statutory tax rate or exemptions, corporate tax credits, and withholding tax bases
and revenues. The lack of distinction in the data between (i) MNEs (inbound / outbound)
and domestic-only corporations, and (ii) related and third party transactions, is also a
significant limitation in some countries. With increasing use of electronically filed tax
returns, the cost of processing the filed information will be reduced, but will still be
significant for many countries. Nonetheless, maximising the information and insight from
currently provided data, based on best practices in several countries would be beneficial.
The Action 11 Request for Input and the CFA WP2 survey identified what could be
considered as some best practices to improve data collection, processing, and economic
analysis in several countries, which are briefly described in Box 1.3.

Box 1.3. Some current best practices in using available data for BEPS analysis
Germany – The Deutsche Bundesbank houses the Micro database on Direct Investment (MiDi),
which is a full census of foreign firms’ affiliates in Germany. It covers directly or indirectly
owned foreign affiliates of German parent companies above a certain size and ownership
threshold, including affiliates in developing countries. It contains unconsolidated (sometimes
consolidated) balance sheet data at the firm level, ownership variables (links between affiliates
and parent company), as well as other useful information such as liabilities to shareholders and
(or) affiliates; total balance sheet of affiliates and parent company; and shares in the assets and
liability positions of non-residents. The data includes profit after tax, but does not include other
income statement information, such as taxes or income/expense information for analysing
specific BEPS channels. The MiDi data is confidential and available only on site at the Research
Centre at the Central Office of the Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt for approved research
projects and under strict confidentiality rules.
Sweden – Government analysts in Sweden have access to detailed, anonymised taxpayer
information from filed tax returns. The firm-level information also includes balance sheet
information, the number of domestic employees, employee compensation, and the value of
tangible and intangible assets. The data distinguishes between MNEs and purely domestic firms,
with a further breakdown available by sectors. Information on foreign source income and related
party transactions (e.g. controlled foreign corporations), and the amount of R&D expenditures
undertaken in the country is not captured in tax returns. A useful practice that could be replicated
in other countries is using information available from other sources, such as commercial sources
to supplement the government’s database. However, the Swedish data lacks detailed income
information on foreign subsidiaries.
Latin America – Some tax authorities, such as in Argentina, request companies to present
special forms with information relating to transactions with related parties as well as with
entities located in non-cooperative jurisdictions, and non-related parties. The information covers
trade in goods and specifies prices, volumes and trading partners. Some Latin American
countries share data extracted from these forms (e.g. effective tax rates, intragroup transactions,
and transactions with parties located in tax havens) with international organisations, such as the
Inter-American Centre of Tax Administrations (CIAT), upon request, even if they are not shared
with the public. This suggests that there are opportunities for international organisations to
construct comparable data for developing countries20
.
United States – The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) surveys both UNITED
STATES headquartered firms (and their affiliates abroad) and subsidiaries in the United States
of foreign headquartered firms. Both surveys are done on an annual basis with more detailed
benchmark surveys done every five years. MNE firms operating in the United States are required
by law to respond to these surveys, but the survey information is not shared with tax or financial
reporting authorities to enable verification, and confidentiality is assured. The aggregated data
are publicly available, and the micro data can be accessed by non-government researchers under
strict confidentiality rules. The current data does not enable full consolidation, can include some
double counting of affiliated entities, and does not identify hybrid securities that can be used for
shifting income. The data for each affiliate includes the country of location of its physical assets
as well as its country of incorporation, though neither of these are necessarily its country of tax
residence.

Box 1.3. Some current best practices in using available data for BEPS analysis
(continued)
The United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) collects tax return information on controlled
foreign corporations (CFCs) of United States parents, plus tax return information on United
States subsidiaries of foreign parents. Some of the tax return data is compiled and tabulated for
published aggregate tables, and compiled micro data is available for certain government analysts
as well as certain approved non-government researchers. While most corporate micro data for
analysis are stratified random samples, in the international area micro data is more likely to be
for the population of multinational corporations. This enables a relatively complete picture of all
the CFCs of United States parents though some information on lower tiers may be missing. Data
are reported by country of incorporation and therefore the country of reporting for some entities,
particularly hybrid or stateless entities, does not necessarily reflect the country of tax residence.
For United States subsidiaries with foreign parents, data are generally limited to United States
activity. The CFC data is important in tax policy analysis particularly because it includes
linkages with affiliated entities.
50. In 2011, the OECD Expert Group for International Collaboration on Microdata
Access was formed to examine the challenges for cross-border collaboration with micro
data. The resulting 2014 report21
notes: “The challenge in the 21st Century is to change
practices in access to micro data so that the access services can cross borders and
support trans-national analysis and policy making. This is necessary to reflect the
increasingly international (global) reach and impact of comparative analysis and shared
policy making.”
51. Instead of suggesting new legislation, substantial new infrastructure, or new
technology for doing so, the report seeks smarter deployment of what already exists in
most OECD countries. Of course, in the micro-level tax return data context for BEPS,
data collection, dissemination and access is still not ideal. The report highlights the
importance of comparability and thus working towards homogeneity in data collection
across countries. It states that regional and international shared policy making needs the
support of evidence drawn from comparative analysis and/or the combined data of the
national parties to the collaboration. Working with available firm/group-level financial
statements, for example, reveals the heterogeneity across reporting standards for
accounting purposes worldwide. The level of detail (and whether this is provided
geographically or by segment) in which groups choose to report certain items like sales,
assets, profits and employees differs widely. There are also vast differences in the
mandatory information required by different tax authorities.
52. It is important to emphasise that in most cases BEPS must be estimated rather
than directly observed from tax returns, financial accounts or customs records. For
example, identifying deviations from arm’s length pricing is a highly fact-intensive
analysis. Analysis of customs data for individual product pricing must distinguish
between sales to related parties and third-parties, and analysis of relatively unique
transfers of intangible assets requires analysis of “comparable” transactions. Comparisons
of profits and effective tax rates across thousands of companies require sophisticated
statistical analysis to truly separate tax aspects from real economic activity. Simple
descriptive statistics can only provide indications, rather than correlation or causation, of
potential BEPS behaviours, and statistical analysis of large databases may also only be
able to provide rough measures or indications of BEPS due to current data limitations.

Nonetheless, analysis of available data by statistical and economic analysis will provide
additional insights beyond descriptive statistics.
53. Processed corporate tax return information for MNEs and their foreign affiliates
have been analysed by governments and, in some countries, academic researchers.
Linkage of tax return information with other business administrative records within
governments could increase the insights from existing data. However, access to existing
tax return information for tax analysis purposes is not always possible. In addition, many
government tax policy agencies and tax administrations have limited resources to conduct
empirical statistical and economic analysis. Some countries provide good examples of
what can be achieved as there are co-operative research programmes between government
and academics for analysis of data under strictly controlled and confidential
circumstances by academics with specific research programmes. This promotes robust
economic and statistical analysis based on access to firm-level data.
54. Although having a large database with many observations is helpful for statistical
analysis, such a database may exclude important available information. Sometimes the
quality and depth of an analysis is more insightful than the quantity of observations
providing a non-random and/or less in-depth analysis. Thus, although examples of BEPS
behaviours by some major MNEs should not be extrapolated to all MNEs, detailed
information from public enquiries should be considered. Existing databases used for
economic analysis of BEPS should be checked to see if identified cases of BEPS are
included in the data. Finally, this assessment of the currently available data for economic
analysis of BEPS and potential countermeasures has identified significant data
limitations, data issues, and in some cases data gaps in the various data sources currently
available for analysing BEPS and BEPS countermeasures.

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Notes
1. IMF (2014), Coordinated Direct Investment Survey: Project on bilateral asymmetries.
2. BEPS Monitoring Group, submission to Action 11 Public Consultation, May 2015.
3. Cederwall, E. (2015), Making Sense of Profit Shifting: Jack Mintz. Tax Foundation.
4. OECD 2015. Implementing the latest international standards for compiling foreign
direct investment statistics: How multinational enterprises channel investments
through multiple countries.
5. Koch, R. & Oestreicher, A. (2014), in response to the OECD BEPS Action 11
Request for Input.
6. For financial accounting purposes, the objective is to record both current-year and
future-year tax liabilities (tax expense) associated with the current-year economic
activities of a firm. This differs from actual, current-year tax payments that may have
been generated by prior-year economic activities and do not include the future tax
payments from current-year economic activities. See Hanlon (2003) and Lisowsky
(2010).
7. Koch & Oestreicher (2014).
8. Prichard, Cobham and Goodall (2014).
9. See e.g. Cobham & Loretz, (2014).
10. See Weyzig (2014).
11. E.g. Weyzig (2014), Buettner and Wamser (2007), Huizinga et al. (2008).
12. Hope et al. (2013) examined firms’ responses to a United States accounting rule
change in 1998, which allowed firms to stop providing segment reporting at the
geographic level. The analysis found that firms that discontinued geographic segment
reporting were those that had lower effective tax rates, consistent with firms’ interest
in not reporting information that would potentially reveal tax avoidance behaviour. In
a similar paper, Akamah et al. (2014) find that firms with operations in tax havens are
more likely to aggregate their geographic segment disclosures.
13. Cederwall, E. (2015), Making Sense of Profit Shifting: Jack Mintz. Tax Foundation.
14. Cobham and Loretz (2014) use the largest commercially available database of
company balance sheets, ORBIS. Using a dataset of over 200,000 individual
companies in over 25,000 corporate, they state coverage is severely limited among
developing countries, and increasingly so for lower-income countries, and “where
there are non-random reasons for information to be missing (e.g. accounts in low-tax
jurisdictions are less likely to be included in the dataset), this will result in systematic
biases to the results.”2014
15. In response to the OECD (2014) BEPS Action 11 Request for Input, Reinald Koch
and Andreas Oestreicher list some of the limitations: there is no distinction between
interest and dividend income, or between intra-group and third party transactions; the

publishers of the data rely on extent to which companies publish reports; there are
missing companies in the data as well as missing financial information from
companies that are included; it is not a random sample as it depends on information
released by business sector; and it can be assumed that information is lacking in
particular for entities that are used for tax planning purposes.
16. Beer and Loeprick (2013) estimate profit shifting, and find significant effects, but
note the selection criterion reduced their sample by more than 60%, “possibly
resulting in a bias as incomplete accounting information may be correlated to less
transparent corporate governance and more aggressive tax optimization.” “Such a bias
would likely result in an underestimation of findings on aggregate profit shifting.”
17. Commons Select Committee on Tax avoidance and evasion in the United Kingdom
(2015); House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs (2013); The
Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations in the United States (2013); Inquiry into
Tax Disputes in Australia (2014).
18. European Commission (2014).
19. Michael Durst, submission to Action 11 Public Consultation, May 2015.
20. BEPS Monitoring Group, submission to Action 11 Request for Input, September 2014
21. (OECD 2014), OECD Expert Group for International Collaboration on Microdata
Access: Final Report.

2. INDICATORS OF BASE EROSION AND PROFIT SHIFTING – 41
Chapter 2
Indicators of base erosion and profit shifting
Key points:
While there is a large and growing body of evidence of the existence of BEPS,
through empirical analysis and specific information relating to the affairs of certain
MNEs that has emerged from numerous legislative and parliamentary enquiries, the
scale of BEPS and changes in BEPS over time are difficult to measure.
This chapter presents six indicators to assist in tracking the scale and economic impact
of BEPS over time, while noting the strengths and limitations of each indicator. The
six indicators point to a disconnect between financial and real economic activities,
profit rate differentials within top global MNEs, tax rate differentials between MNEs
and comparable non-MNEs and profit shifting through intangibles and interest.
The use of any indicators to identify the scale and economic impact of BEPS can only
provide “general indications” and the interpretation of any such indicators must be
heavily qualified by numerous caveats.
While no single indicator is capable of providing a complete picture of the existence
and scale of BEPS, a collection of indicators or a “dashboard of indicators” can
provide broad insights into the scale and economic impact of BEPS and provide
assistance to policymakers in monitoring changes in BEPS over time.
This chapter also provides calculations for the indicators, using samples of existing
available data. The data used to produce these calculations are affected by the
considerable limitations of existing available data sources described in detail in
Chapter 1. As a result, the indicators are illustrative rather than definitive, as the
insights that can be discerned from these indicators are greatly affected by the
limitations of the existing available data.
Future access to more comprehensive and improved data would allow much greater
insight to be obtained from the use of these indicators as well as two potential
indicators that could be constructed with improved future data.
The six BEPS indicators show strong indications of BEPS behaviours using different
sources of data, employing different metrics, and examining different BEPS channels.
When combined and presented as a dashboard of indicators, they provide evidence of
the existence of BEPS, and its continued increase in scale. Improved data availability
can provide better insights in the future.

42 – 2. INDICATORS OF BASE EROSION AND PROFIT SHIFTING
2.1 Introduction
55. One of the key components of Action 11 is the development of “indicators” that
can be used to identify the scale and economic impact of BEPS, to track changes in BEPS
over time and to monitor the effectiveness of measures implemented to reduce BEPS.
56. The first step in developing useful indicators of BEPS is defining the concept.
BEPS relates to arrangements that achieve no or low taxation by shifting profits away
from the jurisdictions where the activities creating those profits take place or by
exploiting gaps in the interaction of domestic tax rules where corporate income is not
taxed at all. No or low taxation is not per se a cause of BEPS, but becomes so when it is
associated with practices that artificially segregate taxable income from the activities that
generate it. The important distinguishing characteristic of BEPS is tax planning strategies
that result in a disconnect between the geographic assignment of taxable profits and the
location of the underlying real economic activities that generate these profits. As a result
of this disconnect, MNEs may be able to shift profits from higher-taxed countries to
lower-taxed countries without a corresponding material change in the way the taxpayer
operates, including where products and services are produced, sales and distribution
occur, research and development is undertaken, and how the taxpayer’s capital and labour
are used. In some cases, BEPS involves placing just enough economic activity in a
jurisdiction to attempt to justify the tax planning strategy.
57. An overriding objective in the construction and analysis of BEPS indicators in
Action 11 is to develop metrics that help portray the extent of practices that artificially
segregate taxable income from the activities that generate it.
2.2 Indicator concept
58. Dictionary definitions of indicators include:
An index that provides an indication, especially of trends
A meter or gauge measuring and recording variation
A device to attract attention, such as a warning light
An instrument that displays certain operating conditions such as temperature
A pointer on a dial showing pressure or speed
59. As with any gauge, the degree of precision depends on the available information
and the accuracy of the measurement tools. Given currently available data and distortions
caused in that data by BEPS which is being measured, at this stage BEPS indicators can
only provide some general insights into the scale and economic impact of BEPS, but will
necessarily lack the precision that may become possible if more comprehensive and
improved data sources were to be used in the future (see Chapter 1 for a detailed
assessment of the limitations of currently available data). More refined analysis and
estimates of BEPS, based on multi-variate statistical estimation, are possible with
currently available data, but also involve significant uncertainties and limitations (see
Chapter 3 for a detailed examination of the approaches to undertaking such estimation).
Over time, the proposed indicators will provide a general sense of the trend in a number
of key metrics associated with BEPS behaviours.

60. The concept followed in developing the BEPS indicators has been to create a
“dashboard of indicators” that provides an indication of the scale of BEPS and help
policymakers monitor changes in the scale of BEPS over time. The indicators are crude
proxies for a more refined and sophisticated estimate of the dimensions of BEPS. Given
currently available data, indicators are probably the appropriate approach to showing
consistent trends on the general scale of BEPS. Multiple indicators can help identify
trends regarding the scale of BEPS and changes in BEPS and specific BEPS behaviours.
An important requirement of an indicator is that it provides more signal than noise in
measuring the scale of BEPS. To the extent that various potential indicators provide the
same signal (i.e. a high correlation) on the same dimension, then only the clearest
indicator should be used.
61. While no single indicator can be used to provide a complete picture of the scale or
economic impact of BEPS, if a number of separate indicators referring to different
dimensions are pointing in the same direction, they may provide more solid information
on the presence of and trends in BEPS.
2.3 Indicators as a component of Action 11
62. The following chart provides an overview of the different analyses carried out
under Action 11. This chapter presents six BEPS indicators that can be developed from
current data, which is identified as the “current state” category in the chart. Also included
here is the analysis of the scale and economic impact of BEPS that is addressed in
Chapter 3 on the economic analysis of BEPS. The current data limitations are a
significant challenge to the development of both indicators and economic analyses. Even
within tax administrations there is limited information on the operations of MNEs. In a
recent country survey conducted by the Committee on Fiscal Affairs’ WP2 on BEPS-
related research, only eight countries, out of 37 respondents, could report the total amount
of tax revenue collected from MNEs operating in their country.
63. Over time, to the extent that new data sources become available, it is expected
that more accurate estimates of the scale and economic impact of BEPS and the impact of
countermeasures will be possible. Many of the indicators in this chapter have been
developed not only with existing available data in mind, but with a view towards how
such indicators could be enhanced if more comprehensive and improved data were to
become available in the future. The “future state” in the chart represents what would be
considered the next step in the development of more effective BEPS indicators and
estimation methodologies. In this “future state”, many of the indicators would provide
even more insight and more targeted indicators and deeper economic analyses could be
developed from the emergence of new data sources. In the “ideal state”, the indirect
indicators of BEPS would evolve into more accurate, direct estimates of BEPS and the
effectiveness of the BEPS counter-measures. In the “ideal state”, additional and more
comprehensive information derived from actual tax return data would be necessary to
achieve the most precise estimations of BEPS and its economic impact.1
64. One important outcome of developing BEPS indicators with currently available
data is a clearer understanding of the usefulness and limitations of the current data. These
insights are discussed in more detail in Chapter 1’s assessment of current data. Such an
understanding is helpful in informing any consideration of what future new data might be
needed.

Figure 2.1. Future path of BEPS measurement
2.4 Guidelines for indicators
65. The following are specific guidelines that were used in developing BEPS
indicators:
66. A number of different indicators should be included to form a “dashboard of
BEPS indicators”. Multiple indicators showing the general scale of BEPS and particular
BEPS channels are needed given limitations in currently available data. The six indicators
include indicators based on both macro (aggregate) and micro (firm-level) data. Certain
indicators will be more useful than others for understanding the effectiveness of different
67. Alternatives should be considered for summarising indicators. A single
indicator may provide information on both the level of BEPS and changes in BEPS over
time. A ratio may be the most effective way to indicate the level, while trends or changes
in time may be more effectively presented as an index with reference to an initial year
value of the indicator.
68. Financial and tax flows should be related to economic activity. The most useful
indicators of the general scale of BEPS should link BEPS-related financial and tax flows
to measures of real economic activity, such as GDP, sales, employment or the amount of
capital used by firms. In other words, in constructing indicators to be used in evaluating
BEPS, it is important to distinguish between shifts in profits among countries that reflect
changes in real economic activity and BEPS-related transfers of profits that are not in
response to changes in the location of real economic factors, labour and capital, that
produce the income. It should be understood, however, that any indicator of BEPS, such
as income relative to assets, sales, operating expenses or employment or any other
economic measure will vary across countries for a number of reasons unrelated to BEPS.
The economic sources of variation in profits relative to assets, for example, include
differences in the ratio of capital to labour used in different businesses and locations,
differences in market conditions, differences in profitability over the economic cycle, and
differences in factor productivity.
69. Indicators should distinguish between BEPS and real economic effects of
current-law corporate income tax features. Indicators should focus on tax shifting due to
Signal-to-noise ratio expected to increase as data quality increases
Indicators of
BEPS with
available data
Analyses of
economic
impact of BEPS
and counter-
measures with
available data
New and
refined
indicators with
better data
Refined
analyses of
economic
impact of BEPS
and counter-
measures with
better data
True measures of
BEPS and
counter-
measures
Current State Future State Ideal

BEPS, not real economic responses to tax rate differences that reflect the impact of
current-law provisions adopted by legislators, including incentives to expand business
operations in their country. Legislated or discretionary tax incentives can have an
important impact on reported corporate income tax payments that reflect the location of
real economic activity. The challenge in developing indicators is distinguishing between
the economic effects and BEPS. However, artificial cross-border arrangements to exploit
legislated differences in tax structures, including statutory tax rate differences, are
considered BEPS.
70. The BEPS indicators should be able to be refined with potential new data
sources. The initial indicators are based on currently available data for a large number of
countries. New methodologies and data sources will be identified going forward to
analyse the scale of BEPS and the effectiveness of countermeasures to reduce BEPS. In
some cases the initial indicators could be calculated from new data sources which could
provide more targeted and accurate information for estimating BEPS.
71. Bad indicators should be avoided; caveats should be highlighted. Almost as
important as developing effective indicators of BEPS is the need to avoid using poor,
imprecise and misleading indicators. Indicators should have a high signal-to-noise ratio.
In other words, indicators should provide a high ratio of information about BEPS
behaviours relative to real economic effects and other non-BEPS factors. Any indicator
will have limitations which should be highlighted. All indicators will require careful
interpretation in analysing BEPS.
72. Indicators should be simple, clear and timely. Indicators will be used by
policymakers, so they should be simple, clear and well-described. However, their caveats
and limitations should also be clearly noted. Where possible, indicators should not have
significant time lags.
73. Indicators should be adaptable to extended uses. The initial indicators focus on
the global perspective, but some indicators should have the potential to be extended to be
used by individual countries or for specific industries. The development of disaggregated
indicators should be considered for future analysis.
2.5 A significant caution
74. One of the biggest challenges to developing and interpreting indicators is that
BEPS “taints” available measures of real economic activity such as corporate income tax
bases, financial accounting statements, and even national aggregate measures of
economic activity in the corporate sector. This is a serious limitation that is difficult to
overcome with current data and methodologies available for measuring BEPS.
75. The data used to measure most of the indicators unavoidably mix the influence of
real economic activities, corporate income tax policies adopted to encourage business
development, and BEPS.
76. It is important to note that each indicator provides a single perspective of the scale
or composition of BEPS based on currently available data. The indicators are not
equivalent to coefficients in regression equations used to measure the responsiveness of
BEPS to corporate income tax rate differentials. A regression equation is designed to take
into consideration or “control for” the simultaneous impacts of other economic variables
on BEPS. However, in most cases, the indicators do provide high-level “controls” for
some of the major non-BEPS factors through the use of ratios of tax variables to

economic measures and differentials in tax measures between affiliates and their MNE
worldwide group measures.
77. These limitations must be kept in mind in interpreting the information that each
indicator or combination of indicators provides in helping portray the magnitude of BEPS
and evaluating progress over time in reducing BEPS. It may be the case that, in the future,
new and better data sources may help overcome some of these data limitations.
2.6 Six indicators of BEPS
78. Six BEPS Action 11 indicators are described in this section. The discussion for
each indicator includes a description, the rationale for the indicator and the data source
that can be used to estimate the indicator. Calculations of the indicators use existing
available data. The data used to produce these calculations are affected by the
considerable limitations of existing available data sources outlined in detail in Chapter 1.
As a result, the indicators are designed to be illustrative rather than definitive, as the
insights that can be discerned from these examples are greatly affected by the limitations
of the existing available data. Each indicator also contains a statement of some of the
important issues in estimating and interpreting the indicator, including limitations which
might be considered a type of “user-warning”.
79. This chapter presents six specific indicators in the following five categories:
A. Disconnect between financial and real economic activities
1. Concentration of high levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) relative to GDP
B. Profit rate differentials within top (e.g. top 250) global MNEs
2. Differential profit rates compared to effective tax rates
3. Differential profit rates between low-tax locations and worldwide MNE
operations
C. MNE vs. “comparable” non-MNE effective tax rate differentials
4. Effective tax rates of large MNE affiliates relative to non-MNE entities with
similar characteristics
D. Profit shifting through intangibles
5. Concentration of high levels of royalty receipts relative to research and
development (R&D) spending
E. Profit shifting through interest
6. Interest expense to income ratios of MNE affiliates in high-tax locations
80. In addition, two possible additional indicators are discussed that could be
estimated from improved future data when it becomes available.
81. Indicators 1 and 5 are based on macro-level data on a country-by-country basis.
Indicators 2-4 and 6 are calculated from MNE, firm-level financial information from the
ORBIS database2
for unconsolidated affiliates and/or worldwide consolidated groups.
82. In order to partly distinguish between BEPS and real economic impacts, most of
the indicators are constructed using various comparison groups, such as different groups
of countries, different groups of MNE affiliates or worldwide MNE measures vs. affiliate
measures. The objective is to compare measures where BEPS is likely to be relatively

important to measures that are more likely to reflect real economic activities. The use of
these comparison groups is designed to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the indicators.
2.7 General structure of the indicators
83. This section discusses general advantages, limitations, issues and possible
extensions that apply generally to the indicators. In addition, there are more specific
comments about these dimensions in the introduction to the indicator categories. Finally,
there are additional considerations that are discussed for specific indicators.
2.7.1 General advantages
84. Some of the advantages of using indicators include the following:
Indicators can be calculated historically and on an annual basis to track the
direction of changes in BEPS over time.
Some indicators can be updated relatively quickly from data available on a timely
basis.
Indicators can be calculated in the future with more accurate, comprehensive
data, while still tracking indicators using existing data.
Indicators can be calculated, refined and extended by academic and other
researchers to improve the indicators’ ability to measure BEPS. This will
contribute to the transparency of the process.
Use of multiple indicators recognises that there is no single metric currently
available to precisely measure the scale of BEPS and changes in BEPS over time.
When multiple indicators provide similar results, there may be more substantial
evidence of the presence of profit shifting.
2.7.2 General limitations
85. While there may be additional limitations that apply to a particular indicator, there
are several important limitations that apply more broadly to all of the indicators. These
limitations need to be included in any discussion of the indicator results.
Non-tax economic factors are likely to explain a portion of the observed cross-
country and over-time variations in the indicators of BEPS. For example, both
firm-level and aggregate data will be influenced by the economic cycle, which
may contribute to the variation of the indicators over time, independent of
BEPS. Factors such as the size of a country, the level of its GDP per capita or
its GDP growth could explain a part of the observed variation across countries.
The indicators must be evaluated with this key limitation in mind. For example,
Indicator 1 based on FDI data needs to be interpreted with more caution than the
other indicators because attracting high levels of real FDI may be a result of an
attractive investment climate in the recipient country.
There are important limitations related to the availability and quality of the
reported data: missing affiliates in financial data, incomplete data, variation in
how data is reported by country, changes in the way aggregate variables are
measured over time (FDI, for example).

2.7.3 General extensions
86. There are common options for extending the indicator analysis that apply to all
indicators:
Indicators are designed so that they can be calculated with currently available
data or with new data sources that become available in the future. As more
accurate and disaggregated data becomes available, the ratio of signal-to-noise
for individual indicators is likely to improve.
One possibility for extension could be a combination of tax return information
available to tax administrations with the publicly available financial information
used in estimating the firm-level indicators. Tax administrations could use the
combined information to estimate specific indicators and track the impact of
BEPS countermeasures over time.
87. In developing specific indicators, single global indicators could be extended to
specific countries or industries (e.g. firm-level data could be analysed by major industry).
This disaggregation, if permitted by the data, could help control for some of the variation
in real economic factors.
88. The following sections describe each of the six specific indicators, as well as the
two possible future indicators using future data. Annex 2.A1 shows formulas for
calculating the indicators.
2.8 Disconnect between financial and real economic activities
89. The indicator in this category uses macro (aggregate) data to develop an indirect
indicator of BEPS using foreign direct investment (FDI) data.
90. FDI measures cross-border investments by a resident of one country (direct
investor) in an enterprise (direct investment enterprise) in another country. Importantly,
the investments being measured are those representing a “lasting interest” in the
investment enterprise. The included investments are between affiliates with at least a 10%
ownership link. In other words, FDI measures investments by related parties.
91. The indicator uses FDI stocks (positions) that represent the cumulative annual net
investments of foreign direct investors in a country. In theory, the stock reflects all prior
annual investments and disinvestments in a country. FDI stocks can be broken down to
debt and equity direct investments.
2.8.1 Specific considerations for indicators of financial and economic
disconnects
2.8.1.1 Strengths
Indicator based on important global economic variables which include BEPS
financial flows.
Measures previously cited by many BEPS researchers.
Can be easily explained.

Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content

Silloin rohkaisi Lehtimaa mielensä, pisti lapionsa maahan ja alkoi
puhua kapteeni Thoreldista. Neiti Louisen pitäisi pitää varansa, sillä
rikas kapteeni eleli Herrasaaressa sellaista elämää, ettei nuorten
tyttöjen tarvitsisi hänestä sen enempää välittää. Lehtimaa oli
livahtanut näihin puheisiin aivan itsestään, ilman valmistelua ja
seuraten vain omia ajatuksiaan.
Eipä niin, että hän olisi ajatellut neitiä itselleen — eihän toki —
sellaisia hullutuksia ei hän ajatellut! — Ei, mutta se oli kapteeni
Thoreld, joka oli auttanut Kalle Pihlin saamaan torpan ja Annan — ja
mistä syistä, se oli helppo ymmärtää, mutta siitä ei hän nyt vielä
tahtonut puhua. Oikeastaan hän oli ottanut asian puheeksi
insinöörinsä vuoksi, sillä insinööri Halldén oli kymmentä kertaa
hauskempi ja kauniimpi mies kuin tuo kaljupää kapteeni.
Lehtimaa sanoi sanottavansa kylläkin selvästi, mutta neiti Louise
näytti siltä kuin ei olisi mitään ymmärtänyt. Eikä hän tainnut paljoa
ymmärtääkään. Se hänet kuitenkin saattoi hämilleen, että Lehtimaa
tiesi hänen sisimmät ajatuksensa insinööristä. Ne hän luuli
salanneensa niin hyvin, ettei kukaan muu niitä aavistanut kuin
August, joka pisti nenänsä joka paikkaan.
Mutta insinöörille hän ei uskaltaisi kirjoittaa, ei ainakaan — vielä!
Jos se tulisi ihan tarpeelliseksi, niin hän voisi kysyä lupaa äidiltä ja
sitten mahdollisesti tehdä sen. Mutta ei hän suinkaan ollut
Lehtimaalle vihainen — päinvastoin. Oli kuin hän olisi karkeasta
pohjalaisesta työmiehestä saanut salaisimpien seikkojensa uskotun.
Hänen puhettaan kapteeni Thoreldista hän kuunteli hiljaisella
hämmästyksellä — mitä se häntä liikuttaa, mitä kapteeni tekee
Herrasaaressaan? Eikä hän uskonut, että kapteeni eli sen

kummemmin kuin isäkään, ehkä sentään hiukan hienommin ja
hauskemmin.
Hän lähti Lehtimaan luota ystävällisesti päätään nyökäyttäen ja
vakuutti, että Lehtimaa vain luottaisi sekä insinööriin että häneen, he
kyllä auttavat, jos tiukka tulee.

KAHDESTOISTA LUKU
Läänien kuvernöörit lähettivät senaattiin mitä synkimpiä vuodentulon
kertomuksia, ja kun ne tulivat sanomalehtiin ja luettiin maaseudulla,
täytyi maanviljelijäin myöntää, että tila oli melkein epätoivoinen.
Ainoastaan varakkaimmilla talollisilla oli ollut siementä tulevan
vuoden varalle, köyhemmät eivät uskaltaneet heittää ainoaa
turvaansa multaan, joka kenties tulisi pettämään heitä vastedes niin
kuin oli nytkin pettänyt. Elon ostosta ei voinut olla puhettakaan, sillä
hinnat olivat kohonneet kahta korkeammalle eikä moni pienviljelijä
ollut sitten kevään nähnyt kuin jonkun harvan suuremman
maaseudulle eksyneen paperirahan. Nälänhätä vei nekin takaisin
niiden alkulähteeseen Helsinkiin. Siellä ne olivat varmassa tallessa
pankkiholveihin kätkettyinä mynttäämättömien kultatankojen ja
muiden arvotavarain vieressä. Ei koskaan ole pääoman omistajilla —
ja etupäässä hallituksella — ollut parempia raha-asioita kuin silloin.
Rahan korko nousi päivä päivältä, ja suuria kiinnityksiä tarjottiin
vakuudeksi pienimmistäkin lainoista. Suuret kauppahuoneet
rantakaupungissa tekivät mainioita tekoja maan hädässä, toivat
viljaa maahan, johon kunnat kesemmällä olivat hallitusta
kehottaneet, ja myivät sen satumaisiin hintoihin samalla kun hallitus
otti nämä keinottelijat suojelukseensa, lainasi heille rahaa korkeaa
korkoa ja hyviä vakuuksia vastaan ja kartutti siten nälkäisen maan

rahavaroja kaikella sillä huolenpidolla, mikä on hyvän esivallan
velvollisuus.
Rautatien rakennushallitus rakensi peninkulmittain rautatietään
polkuhinnasta, ja rahamiehet iloitsivat tästä yleisten varain hyvästä
hoidosta, myönsivät kalliin ajan apua virkamiehille ja antoivat lainoja
suurviljelijöille tukkiakseen tyytymättömäin suut ja poistaakseen
kaikki epäilykset niiltä, jotka vielä uskalsivat epäillä.
Varhain tuiskutti talvi lumensa maamme monille kylvämättömille
pelloille tehden torpat ja talot autioiksi. Niiden asukkaat hakivat
turvaansa nälkää ja kylmää vastaan toisaalta, kokoutuivat kyliin,
ettei tarvitsisi edes kuolla yksinään, ja kaikkein köyhimmät lähtivät
mieron tietä kiertämään. Rautatietyömiehiä erotettiin sadoittain, ja
vähine säästöineen asettuivat he taloihin ja mäkitupiin lähelle
työpaikkaa. Se, jolla ei ollut perhettä, lähti jotenkin rauhallisesti
talviselle taipaleelle, mutta kaikki odottivat aikaista kevättä ja
pikaista lumen lähtöä, sadetta ja päivänpaistetta, joka nopeasti
sulattaisi roudan maasta ja pehmittäisi penkereet lapion pystyviksi.
Silloin alkaisivat he työnsä taas, levittäisivät maita levälleen,
unohtaisivat menneisyyden ja olisivat vastedes paremmin varuillaan.
Se hyvä puoli oli aikaisella talvella kuitenkin, että kylmä ilma kuoletti
tuhannet miljoonat taudinsiemenet, joita väentungos rautatiellä oli
synnyttänyt ja jotka jo olivat alkaneet uhkaavasti tehdä turmioitaan.
Mutta vielä oli työmiehillä suomalaisen luonteen sitkeä
vastustusvoima, vielä ei ollut kulkutauti tunkenut majoihin ja
maakuoppiin ja hyvään aikaan tuli talvi levittämään terveellistä
kylmyyttään, tuomaan vilua ja pakkasta, mutta kuitenkin
läheisimmästä vaarasta pelastamaan.

Uramon torpan isäntä Kalle Pihl ajoi eräänä päivänä ajatuksiinsa
vaipuneena havukuormaa metsästä pihaan. Sitten viime kesän oli
hän melkoisesti muuttunut, ja hän näytti mielestään aivan toiselta
mieheltä kuin tuo entinen hevosmies, joka vaelteli halki Hämeen
työansiota etsien. Tuo pitkä, tummaverinen mies oli alkanut ajaa
harvaa partaansa ja näytti varsin komealta pienine viiksineen, joita
hän kasvatti itselleen kapteeni Thoreldin tapaan. Hänen lyhyt
lammasnahkaturkkinsa oli uusi ja tukkansa kammattu, eikä kukaan
olisi ensi näkemältä tuntenut häntä vanhaksi maankulkijaksi. Hän oli
kuin talollinen konsanaan. Hän näki edempänä kylän ylhäällä mäen
päällä ja suon alempana, ja hän muisti ihmeellisen tarkkaan
ajatuksensa juuri tässä samassa mäessä, kun hän puoli vuotta sitten
ensi kerran näki nämä seudut, joilla onni oli nyt hänellekin osansa
antanut. Hän muisti tuumailunsa herroista ja Jumalan
rangaistuksesta; ne tuntuivat hänestä nyt niin lapsellisilta kuin olisi
hän tuumaillut niitä kymmenen vuotta sitten. Sittemmin hän oli tullut
herroista aivan toista kokemaan, eikä hänellä ollut mitään syytä olla
heille katkera.
Kaikki oli onnistunut Uramon asukkaille, aina siitä alkaen kun häät
vietettiin ja he tänne muuttivat. Kalle Pihl ei juuri mielellään häitä
ajatellut, ne oli pidetty tavallisilla menoilla, pappi oli kysynyt ja hän
oli vastannut. Vihkiminen oli toimitettu eräänä sunnuntaina saarnan
jälkeen pitäjän tuvan sisäkamarissa muutamien vierasmiesten
läsnäollessa. Kun sitten oli ajettu kotiin ja vietetty iloista iltaa,
lähdettiin seuraavana aamuna Ruskon, parin lehmän, kahden
lampaan ja kahden porsaan kanssa muuttamaan Uramoon, johon
Kalle Pihl jo oli huonekalut hankkinut ja jonne Anna nyt vei suuret
myötäjäisensä — vaatteita ja talouskapineita enemmän kuin monella
talontyttärellä. Komeassa, maalikantisessa kirstussa oli vielä kolme
suurta seteliä vastaisten tarpeitten varalle.

Kaunis Anna oli nyt taitava emäntä, jolle täytyi antaa anteeksi
hänen pienet heikkoutensa.
Kosiminen oli käynyt kuin voidellen ja niin nopeasti, että Kalle Pihl
tuskin tiesikään ennen kuin tyttö jo oli hänen sylissään ja tytön
kanssa Uramon torppa sekä viisisataa markkaa. Tuon illan jälkeen,
jolloin he olivat toisensa keinulla tavanneet, ei Anna ollut hänelle
rauhaa antanut, ja kuta kylmemmältä Kalle Pihl näytti, sitä
kiihkeämmäksi tuli tyttö, kunnes toinen lopulta antautui. Olihan Anna
niin kaunis ja — Pohjanmaa niin kaukana!
Ei hän kuitenkaan ollut ajattelematta heittäytynyt tähän
uhkarohkeaan yritykseen. Sekä järki että omatunto olivat häntä
ankarasti ahdistelleet, mutta kun kerran ensi askel oli näin nopeasti,
melkein vastahakoisesti astuttu, liukui hän eteenpäin kuin kala
rysään. Hän oli varomattomasti mennyt nielusta sisään, ja nyt ei hän
kuolemakseenkaan enää osannut ulos. Mutta hän tuli hyvästi —
hyvinkin hyvästi — toimeen tässä rysässään — eikä enää
halunnutkaan siitä pois. Ja hän rauhoittui sitä enemmän kuta
uhkaavammaksi maan hätä tuli. Tuosta papinkirjakepposesta hän
kyllä suoriutuisi, sillä eihän kauppaa ollut kukaan ollut näkemässä, ja
tässä köyhän väen tulvassa Pohjanmaalta päin olisi vaikea saada
selville, kenenkä papinkirja oikeastaan oli. Sitä paitsi oli Lehtimaa
moukka miehekseen ja typerä raukka, jota ei miehisen miehen
tarvitsisi pelätä, vaikka hän tulisikin uhkailemaan käräjillä, sillä siinä
sekasorrossa, joka nyt näkyi olevan tulossa, voisi sukkela mies, jolla
vielä on rahaa taskussa, kyllä keksiä keinoja pelastuksekseen.
Ei, Lehtimaata ei Kalle Pihl enää pelännyt, vaikka hän koko syksyn
olikin kierrellyt Uramon torppaa insinöörin kanssa, joka nyt onneksi
oli matkustanut tiehensä. Insinööriä oli hän sitä vastoin alati värissyt

ja odottanut, että se milloin tahansa astuisi pirttiin lautamiehen tai
siltavoudin seurassa, mutta Lehtimaa — se raukka — ei nähtävästi
ollut uskaltanut kertoa insinöörille kaikkea pelätessään omaa
nahkaansa, ja nyt se oli jo aivan myöhäistä. Kuta enemmän aikaa
kului, sitä varmemmaksi tunsi Kalle Pihl itsensä ja sitä selvemmiksi
osasi hän miettiä puolustuskeinonsa ilmiantajaa vastaan.
Parhaiten piti hänen hyvää tuultaan vireillä onnistunut vuodentulo.
Kun useimmilta naapureilta oli paleltunut melkein kaikki ja kun
suuret rikkaat talot saivat vain neljännen jyvän, pui Kalle Pihl kapan
alalta kymmenen kappaa. Halla ei ollut hänen sarkojaan
koskettanutkaan — perunoita lukuun ottamatta, jotka eivät
kuitenkaan nekään olleet kokonaan paleltuneet. Hän ei tiennyt,
mistä tämä tuli. Hän luki sen vasta peratun, väkevän peltonsa
ansioksi, ja ehkä vaikutti siihen virtakin, joka juoksi pellon alitse ja
piti ilmaa liikkeessä, kenties myöskin hyvät hengettäret ja hänen
onnensa.
Mutta kapteeni Thoreldilla oli omat ajatuksensa asiasta, kun hän
kuuli puhuttavan Kalle Pihlin menestyksestä. Paljoa ennen kuin
kravustajat olivat lähteneet kotimatkalle, olivat he polttaneet tulta
pellon nurkassa, ja siihen oli vielä puita lisätty, kun neiti Louisen
tarvitsi kuivata sukkiaan. Saman tulen ääressä oli kapteeni
lämmitellyt vaatteitaan ja huomannut, että savu oli leveänä huntuna
laskeutunut pellon päälle. He eivät sammuttaneet tulta pois
lähtiessään, vaan kastelivat ainoastaan sammalen ympäriltä, jotenka
savu yhä sakeni ja muodostui lämmittäväksi peitteeksi. Tämän
ajatuksensa hän kertoi eräässä sanomalehdessä, siitä syntyi vilkasta
keskustelua, ja se antoi aihetta onnistuneisiin kokeisiinkin.

Mutta Kalle Pihl ei välittänyt siitä, mitenkä tuo oli tapahtunut,
hänen itseluottamuksensa paisui yli rajojensa ja hänen uskonsa
omaan onneensa oli järkähtämätön.
Nyt, kun talvi tuli, ei hänellä ollut ainoastaan pelto kylvettynä,
mutta myöskin viisi tynnöriä hyviä rukiita ja vähän ohria ja kauroja
eloaitan hinkalossa. Se oli suuri omaisuus näinä aikoina. Kalle Pihlin
omantunnon moitteet kuoleutuivat, kun Jumala näin selvästi oli
osoittanut hänelle suosiotaan, ja hän ajoi syksyn kuluessa kaksi
kertaa kirkolle kauniin vaimonsa kanssa sekä näyttäytyäkseen että
maksaakseen Korkeimmalle osan kiitollisuudenvelastaan.
Näin tuumiessaan saapui hän torpalleen, kaatoi kuormansa pienen
navetan oven eteen ja valmistautui viemään Ruskoa talliin. Silloin
ilmaantui hänen vaimonsa vähän levottoman näköisenä tuvan ovelle
ja pyysi häntä tulemaan sisään, sillä siellä oli joku, joka tahtoi
puhutella häntä. Kalle Pihlin sydän alkoi vähän tykyttää, mutta hän
rauhoittui heti, riisui hevosen, vei sen talliin ja meni vasta sitten
pitkin, vakavin askelin pirttiin.
Siellä istui Lehtimaa uhkaavan näköisenä pöydän päässä, ja näytti
siltä kuin hän ei aikoisikaan niin pian mennä tiehensä. Hän hymähti
isännälle ja kysäisi kuulumisia.
— Mikäpä tässä lie hätänäkään, vastasi Kalle Pihl ylpeästi ja
paiskasi lakkinsa pöytään.
Mutta Lehtimaa nyökäytti salaperäisesti päätään Kalle Pihlille,
pyysi häntä tulemaan lähemmä ja viittasi peukalollaan Annaa:
— Mitä tarkoitat? kysyi Kalle Pihl.

— Minä luulen että olisi parempi, jos puhelisimme kahden kesken,
kun ei ole akkain korvat kuulemassa.
— Sano sinä vain, mitä sinulla on sanomista! Minä en salaa mitään
vaimoltani.
— Ohhoh! Ehkä on kuitenkin asioita, joita et aivan mielelläsi
päästäisi hänen korviinsa.
Kalle Pihl katsahti synkästi vieraaseen. Sitten hän loi pikaisen
silmäyksen vaimoonsa ja sanoi arvokkaasti:
— Älä ole olevinasi, vaan puhu suusi puhtaaksi!
— No, koska itse sen tahdot, sanoi Lehtimaa ja alkoi kaivaa
poveaan, niin voinhan sitten sanoa, että olen saanut papinkirjani.
Näillä sanoilla, joihin Lehtimaa oli paljonkin rakentanut, ei ollut
minkäänlaista vaikutusta.
— Mitä sinun papinkirjasi minua liikuttaa? tuli lyhyesti ja
rauhallisesti Kalle Pihlin suusta.
— No, no — eiköhän sentään vähän liikuta!
— Ei pikkuistakaan!
— Ajattele tarkkaan, mitä sanot…!
— Herkeä lörpöttelemästä joutavia, keskeytti Kalle Pihl ja istuutui.
Lehtimaata vähän hämmästytti toisen varmuus, mutta hymyillen
vetosi hän kuitenkin Annaan ja kysyi:

— Saako vaimosi tietää koko salaisuutemme?
— Jos nyt et lakkaa juoruistasi, saat maistaa nyrkkiäni, sanoi Kalle
Pihl vihaisesti ja astui lähemmä Lehtimaata.
Silloin tämä nousi ylös ja löi paperipakan pöytään, katsahti Annaan
ja huusi julki sen, mitä kuukausia oli sisässään kantanut:
— Tässä ovat paperit, joilla olet nainut tuon tuolla, kuuletko!
Tässä on oikeat todistukset, että hän on minun samoin kuin koko
tämä torppakin, kuuletko! Ja sinä, Anna — kuule sinäkin minua, sillä
sinulla on mies, joka humalaiselta viekoittamillaan papereilla on
vienyt sinut vääryydellä vihille ja nyt … ja nyt on koston päivä tullut
… koston päivä tullut… Kalle Pihl … saapi … saapi … vastata …
vastata … oikeuden … oikeuden…
Tuvan ovi paukahti kiinni Lehtimaan takana, joka vähäsen
vastusteltuaan oli lentänyt päistikkaa pihalle. Hän nousi pystyyn kuin
päissään, ei niin paljon vihoissaan kuin vakuuttuneena siitä, että hän
nyt viimeinkin oli kaikki vastukset voittanut. Riemuiten katsahti hän
jälkeensä, kun lähti menemään kotiinsa varmana siitä, että Kalle Pihl
ennen aamun koittoa olisi lähtevä torpastaan pois, jos ei Anna jo sitä
ennen ole toimittanut häntä kruununmiesten käsiin. Hän käveli
tietään tyytyväisenä niin kuin se, joka onnellisesti on kärsimyksensä
loppuun kärsinyt.
Jo pikku poikana oli hän saanut kärsiä kaikenlaista ilkeyttä kylän
pojilta, jotka pilkkasivat häntä hänen lapsellisuutensa tähden.
Hänellä oli vielä täysikasvuisena sellaisia merkillisen lapsellisia
ajatuksia ja hommia, että häntä pidettiin melkein pehmeäjärkisenä,
mutta kun hän muuten oli sukkela käsittämään eikä koskaan
osoittanut olevansa mielipuoli, niin hänelle vain naurettiin. Laiskain

koulussa oppi hän autuuden opinkin niin yksinkertaisesti, että pääsi
ripille ja aikamiesten kirjoihin.
Lehtimaan hulluus oli oikeastaan siinä, että hänellä oli tavattoman
vilkas ja rajaton mielikuvitus, jota ei mikään koulu eivätkä mitkään
vanhemmat olleet koskaan hillinneet. Se vei hänet mitä
kummallisimmille syrjäpoluille ja pois tavallisesta
talonpoikaishölkästä, se koristeli ja kultaili hänelle jokapäiväiset
tapahtumat, ja se petti häntä sydämettömästi ja niin paljon kuin
häntä suinkin voi pettää, sillä hänellä oli aina uusi saippuakupla
valmiina, kun entinen oli haljennut. Savossa tai Karjalassa, jossa
kansa vielä runoilee ja rakastaa mielikuvituksen tuotteita, olisi
hänestä ehkä tullut runoseppä, mutta Pohjanmaalla, jossa ollaan
käytännöllisempiä ja haaveksitaan vähemmin, pidettiin häntä vähän
hupakkona.
Kun Lehtimaa palasi Kotkaisiin, jossa hän koko pitkän syksyn oli
ollut neiti Louisen suojeluksen alaisena, pisti hän pillit pussiinsa ja
sanoi lähtevänsä talosta, vaikkei selvään ilmoittanutkaan minne
aikoi. Hän vain hymyili salaperäisesti, puheli hämäriä sanoja vääristä
papereista ja virkkoi lopuksi, että kyllä ne saavat vielä nähdä ja
kuulla, jahka aika joutuu.
Neiti Louise, joka vihdoinkin äidin luvalla oli kirjoittanut pari
kankeaa kirjettä insinööri Halldénille Lehtimaan pyynnön johdosta,
sai ensiksi ystävällisen ja kiitollisen vastauksen, että pastori
Lehtimaan kotipitäjässä vielä tarvitsee lisätietoja tuosta miehestä, ja
kun neiti Louise oli ne antanut, saapui kauan odotettu papinkirja
alkupuolella marraskuuta. Mutta sama kirje, jossa tuo kallisarvoinen
asiakirja oli, sisälsi myös muutamia rivejä neiti Louiselle, joka ne
luettuaan vaipui kovin syviin mietteisiin. Insinööri kertoi lyhyesti ja

ihan kuin sivumennen, että häntä aivan odottamatta oli kehotettu
hakemaan parin kolmen vuoden matkarahaa Englantiin ja
Amerikkaan ja että hän oli sen saanutkin. Tuosta onnesta tuli hänen
oikeastaan kiittää von Blumen herrasväkeä, sillä heidän
kauttansahan hän oli tutustunut kapteeni Thoreldiin, ja olihan koko
matkaraha kapteeni Thoreldin hyvyyttä, joka oli puheenjohtajana
Suomen uudessa teollisuusyhdistyksessä. Lopuksi lausui hän
jäähyväisensä ja terveisensä vanhemmille. Koko kirje oli niin
merkillisen kylmä, oli kuin insinöörin katse olisi mennyt sivu siitä,
jolle hän kirjoitti, ja niin kuin kaikki hänen ajatuksensa jo olisivat
harhailleet tuolla kaukaisessa kultamaassa Atlantin takana.
Neiti Louise pani kirjeen pois, huokasi ja kätki tämän
kirjeenvaihtonsa laatikkonsa pohjimmaiseen pohjukkaan. Hänen
katseensa tuli hajamieliseksi, hän nauroi harvoin, ja jos hänen joskus
täytyi hymyillä muiden tähden, oli siinä kokonainen maailma salaista
surua. Rouva von Blume antoi asian mennä menoaan, ei häirinnyt
tytärtään kysymyksillä, ja niin laskeutui vähitellen unhon tomu
menneen kesän haavekuville ja vei niiltä niiden kirkkauden.
Mutta Lehtimaa sai pahan kolauksen, kun ei hän vielä kolmen
päivän jälkeenkään kuullut mitään uramolaisista. Hän tuli
levottomaksi ja teki asiaa kylään, mutta siellä ei kukaan tiennyt
mistään mitään. Oli vain nähty Kalle Pihlin vaimoineen menevän
maakauppiaan luo, jonka kanssa heillä kuului olleen pitkä keskustelu
viljan hinnoista ja muista kaupoista. Kalle Pihl näkyi siis ottavan
selkoa siitä, kannattaisiko jo myydä liikeneviä elojaan.
Lehtimaa palasi hyvin alakuloisena Kotkaisiin. Hän ei voinut
ollenkaan käsittää sitä, että hänen paljastuksestaan ei olisi ollut sen
suurempia seurauksia. Ja nyt alkoi viha maailman vääryydestä taas

kuohua hänessä. Kyllä hän kerran vielä näyttäisi Kalle Pihlille,
kenenkä tavaraa Uramon torppa ja kaunis Anna oikeastaan ovat!
Lehtimaan käynnin jälkeen Uramon torpassa kulki Kalle Pihl pää
vielä pystymmässä kuin ennen. Siinä nyt vasta nähtiin kateus ja
pahansuopaisuus oikeassa karvassaan. Eikä se suinkaan siihen
lopettaisi, sen saisi Anna vielä nähdä. Sillä Lehtimaa kyllä keräisi
maankulkijoita ympärilleen heidän avullaan kostaakseen saamansa
potkut.
Ei koskaan ollut Kalle Pihl oikeammin ennustanut. Lehtimaa oli
aivan muuttunut. Hän ei pysynyt enää päivääkään Kotkaisissa, vaan
alkoi harhailla ympäri ja hakea kaikenlaisten työttömien laiskurien
seuraa, niin että herrasväki jo alkoi joutua epätoivoon suosikkinsa
tähden. Tuo kiittämätön ja kevytmielinen raukka, jota he koko
syksyn olivat kainaloista kannattaneet, jätti yhtäkkiä työnsä, jota ei
suinkaan ollut liiaksi tarjona, ja kuljeskeli kehnoimpain kerjäläisten
kanssa laiskana talosta taloon ansaitsematta leivän palastakaan.
Mutta Lehtimaa oli niin omiin ajatuksiinsa vaipunut, ettei hän
ollenkaan välittänyt siitä, mitä herrasväet ja muut hänestä
ajattelivat. Hän haki kiihkoisin mielin jotain kotiseutunsa tuttavaa,
joka tuntisi sekä hänet että Kalle Pihlin. Tuon todistajan avulla
säikäyttäisi hän muitta mutkitta Kalle Pihlin torpastaan ja välttäisi
siten oikeuden käyntiä, jossa on aina niin monet mutkat ja joka
maksaa niin paljon rahaa. Muutenkin pelkäsi hän vaistomaisesti
joutumista mitenkään sen kanssa tekemisiin.
Hän löysikin milloin jonkun rautatietyömiehen, milloin jonkun
muun, joka oli nähnyt Kalle Pihlin hänen kotipitäjässään, mutta ei
kenelläkään ollut halua antautua käräjänkäyntiin, sillä käräjät siitä
tietysti tulisi. Eikä tuollaisella raukalla kuin Lehtimaalla olisi varaa

maksaa vieraita miehiään. Aivan epätietoista oli sitä paitsi, voittaisiko
hän mitään käräjänkäynnillä. Mahdollisesti pistäisivät ne hänet
itsensäkin rautoihin papinkirjan kaupasta. Irtolaisten joukossa oli
miehiä, jotka olisivat todistajiksi kelvanneet, mutta heidän paperinsa
olivat aina epäkunnossa, eivätkä he mitenkään olisi uskaltaneet
astua korkean oikeuden eteen.
Lehtimaa kulki ympäri kuin levoton varjo ja puheli niin sekavasti,
että ihmiset todenteolla alkoivat pitää häntä mielipuolena.
Silloin tuli hänelle sattumus yhtäkkiä avuksi, juuri kun epätoivo oli
ylimmillään. Eräänä päivänä tapasi hän maantiellä lähellä rautatien
rakennusta repaleisen naisen ja kolme pientä lasta. Vaimo puhui
pohjanmaan murretta, ja paremman puutteessa lyöttäytyi Lehtimaa
hänen seuraansa. Hetken kuluttua heräsi hänessä uusi, suuri ja
varma toivo — toivo, josta hän ei ennen ollut osannut uneksiakaan
ja joka pani hänet vapisemaan Kalle Pihliä niin kuin metsän petoa
mutta joka samalla valaisi hänen omat tuumansa.
Kerjäläisvaimo oli Kalle Pihlin vaimo, joka oli lapsineen lähtenyt
etsimään kadonnutta miestään.

KOLMASTOISTA LUKU
Kalle Pihl valmistautui eräänä hämäränä talviaamuna lähtemään
töilleen ja Anna makasi vielä vuoteellaan, kun kuului askelia ulkoa ja
joku astui porstuaan. Uramon torpassa pidettiin sisäovi lukossa
epävakaisten aikain ja maalatun arkun vuoksi. Kalle Pihl ei
myöntänyt, että hän koetti lukita pahaa omaatuntoaankin. Mutta sitä
hän ei koskaan tulisi myöntämään.
Käsi tarttui oven ripaan ja Anna kohosi istualleen vuoteellaan.
— Kuka siellä?
Miehen ääni kuului sanovan jotain, mutta sitä käskettiin
vaikenemaan, ja naisen ääni vastasi:
— Onpahan muuan, joka tahtoisi tavata Kalle Pihliä.
Mikä ihme tulikaan Uramon torpparille? Anna hypähti vuoteeltaan
ja jäi kankein, unisin silmin tuijottamaan mieheensä, joka äänen
kuullessaan oli säpsähtänyt ja kääntänyt kasvonsa tuvan
pimeimpään nurkkaan, voimatta kuitenkaan salata kalpenemistaan.
— Mikä sinua vaivaa? kysyi Anna.

Silloin kääntyi pohjalainen reippaasti vaimoonsa päin ja sanoi
aivan kylmästi ja levollisesti:
— Ne ovat ehkä ryövärejä!
Anna tarkasteli häntä uteliaasti. Lehtimaan käynnistä oli häneen
jäänyt kipene epäluuloa ja hän oli pannut merkille, että hänen
miehensä salasi häneltä jotakin. Mutta kun hän nyt seisoi siinä
voimakkaana ja hymyillen, luuli hän erehtyneensä äsken, tai ehkä se
todellakin oli säikähtynyt ryöväreitä.
— Akatko ryövärejä! sanoi Anna pilkallisesti.
— Onkos aikaa kysyä, kuka säikäyttää, kun sattuu säikähtämään.
— Onko Kalle Pihl kotona? kuului taas naisen ääni oven takaa.
— Mitä sinä sillä teet? kivahti Anna.
— Ne ovat kerjäläisiä, älä avaa! sanoi Kalle Pihl.
— Menkää hoviin, siellä annetaan ruokaa! Meillä ei ole mitään
antamista! huusi Anna.
— Emme me tulekaan kerjäämään, jatkoi ääni.
— Mitäs te sitten tahdotte?
— Olisi tärkeitä asioita Kalle Pihlille ja hänen vaimolleen.
— Älä päästä heitä sisään! sähisi Kalle Pihl.
Anna katsahti taas häneen ja häntä rupesi uudelleen
epäilyttämään. Sitä paitsi tuli hän uteliaaksi.

— Kuka tietää, mitä niillä olisi asiaa…
— Tietäähän sen, mitä kerjäläisillä on asiaa.
— Sinä näyt yhä vain vielä pelkäävän ryövärejä, pilkkasi Anna —
tai miksi et uskalla katsoa heitä silmiin?
— Pelkäävänkö? Se on valhe, mutta…
— Voisimmehan kerran mekin auttaa köyhiä, niin ehkä se olisi
siunaukseksi itsellemme.
Anna puki hameensa ylleen ja näkyi aikovan mennä katsomaan,
mitä nuo aikaiset aamuvieraat tahtoivat. Kalle Pihl ei uskaltanut
kauempaa vastustaa. Hän tekeytyi aivan välinpitämättömäksi ja alkoi
puhaltaa liedestä tulta aamupiippuunsa.
Ulkona ei enää kolkutettu ja Kalle Pihl hengitti jo vapaammin, kun
kurttuiset naisen kasvot ilmaantuivat matalaan tuvanikkunaan. Se
varjosti kädellä silmiään ja tirkisti hämärään tupaan. Kalle Pihliä
puistatti niin kuin hän olisi nähnyt aaveen, mutta Anna läheni
ikkunaa.
— Etkö voi jättää meitä rauhaan? huusi hän ulkona olevalle.
Tämä pudisti vain kieltävästi päätään ja tirkisteli yhä tupaan.
Silloin välähti uusi aatos Kalle Pihlin päähän:
— Se on hullu!
Annaa pudistutti ja hän vetäytyi pois ikkunasta, mutta samassa
hän muisti miehen äänen.

— Missä on sinun miestoverisi, ja miksi sinä häntä piilottelet?
— Ei täällä ole miehiä, minä olen yksin ja tahdon puhutella
emäntää.
Päästäkää minut sisään!
— Se on hullu! sähisi taas Kalle Pihl.
Jo rupesi Annakin sitä uskomaan ja huusi ikkunan läpi uhkaavalla
äänellä, että he menisivät tiehensä.
— Vai ei minua siis päästetä sisään?
— Ei päästetä!
— Kuule sitten, Anna Mellilä — sillä Pihl ei ole sinun nimesi! Vaan
minun nimeni on Pihl! Näetkö tätä?
Nainen nosti repaleisen tytön ikkunan tasalle.
— Mene tiehesi! Sinä olet hullu!
— Tämä on Kalle Pihlin vanhin tyttö tämä, joka kulkee äitinsä
kanssa kerjuulla. Ja tässä on hänen vanhin poikansa, ja tässä nuorin!
— Nainen nosti kaksi pientä ryysyistä lasta ikkunaan.
— Mene tiehesi — sinä olet päästäsi vialla!
— Minä en ole päästäni vialla niin totta kuin olen Kalle Pihlin
vaimo, jonka hän jätti Pohjanmaalle lähtiessään itse eteläänpäin
mennäkseen naimisiin toisen kanssa, jolla ei ole häneen mitään
oikeutta!

Anna käännähti miehensä puoleen, joka seisoi ovella ja pui nyrkkiä
hyökätäkseen ulos.
— Mitäs sinulla on tähän sanomista, Kalle?
Mutta samassa potkaisi Kalle Pihl oven auki, juoksi ulos, sai kiinni
miehen porstuassa, veti hänet esille ja näytti hänet Anna Mellilälle,
joka oli kiiruhtanut jäljestä.
— Näetkö nyt, kuka se on, joka on pannut toimeen tämän kaiken?
Täällä on taas tämä Lehtimaa, jonka jo kerran ennen olen heittänyt
pellolle! Ymmärrätkö nyt, mikä se on miehiään? Nyt se on kuljettanut
tänne tuon maankiertäjän kotirauhaani rikkoakseen!
Lehtimaa koetti päästä irti, mutta Kalle Pihl puristi häntä niin
kovasti, ettei mies saanut sanaa suustaan. Anna tuli ulos porstuasta
ja vieras vaimokin juoksi hätään. Lapset seisoivat itkien hänen
takanaan.
— Ettei tuo ilkiö häpeä haukkumasta omaa vaimoaan
maankiertäjäksi! huusi vieras vaimo itku kurkussa. — Vaan niin totta
kuin minä elän, saa hän tästä oikeuden edessä vastata, ja siitä, että
on pettänyt sinutkin, Anna Mellilä!
— Suus' kiinni! karjaisi Kalle Pihl raivoissaan. Lehtimaata nakeltiin
kuin kinnasta ja turhaan koetti hän vedota silmäyksillään Annaan.
Nyt se ainakin saisi nähdä, mitä hyvää Lehtimaa oli hänelle tehnyt,
eikä hän enää ollenkaan pelännyt antautua puukkosille Kalle Pihlin
kanssa, jos niiksi tulisi. Hän hapuili tuppeaan, joka riippui selän alla
vyössä, ja viimein saikin hän nopealla ruumiin tempauksella puukon
käsiinsä. Pohjalaisten tapoihin tottunut vaimo huomasi heti, mitä oli
tekeillä.

— Herra Jeesus varjelkoon, se tappaa minun mieheni! kirkaisi hän
ja hyökkäsi apuun. Samassa oli Annakin miehensä vieressä, ja
vieraan vaimon avulla sai Kalle Pihl Lehtimaan ranteista kiinni.
— Ota puukko pois häneltä! komensi Kalle Pihl, ja samassa
heiluttikin vieras vaimo Lehtimaan puukkoa riemuiten kädessään.
— Siinä nyt näet, millainen roisto se on! sanoi Kalle Pihl
huohottaen.
— Mene heti noutamaan nimismiestä.
Anna katseli epäilevästi ympärilleen. Ei hän osannut hevosta
valjastaa eikä hänellä ollut halua jättää miestään yksin noiden
ihmisten kanssa. Lehtimaa seurasi häntä silmillään. Nytpäs saataisiin
viimeinkin nähdä! Se on jo kahden vaiheilla! Ja koko ajan kun hän
koetti riuhtautua irti, tarkasteli hän jännittyneenä Anna Mellilän
liikkeitä. Eihän se ollut apuna puukkoa otettaessa, se oli siis
Lehtimaan puolella.
— Pannaan tuo nuoriin, niin saat mennä itse nimismiestä
noutamaan, ehdotteli Anna.
Lehtimaa sai kuin pistoksen rintaansa. Se ei suinkaan voi olla
hänen tarkoituksensa! Vai antaako se ehkä miehen paeta rauhassa
ja sitten päästää hänet irti ja kiittää pelastajaansa?
— Sen se sietäisi, että vallesmanni saisi hänet kynsiinsä, sanoi
Kalle
Pihl.
— Mikä pakko sinun oli tarttua puukkoon, kun ei ollut mitään
hätää! torui vieras vaimo.

— Joudu pian nimismiehen luo! kiihotti Anna yhäkin.
Vielä koetti Lehtimaa ylläpitää rohkeuttaan, vaikka kaikki näkyivät
olevan häntä vastaan. Lieneehän kuitenkin vielä oikeutta
maailmassa, ajatteli hän. Mutta kun Kalle Pihl oli saanut Lehtimaan
puukon omaan haltuunsa, päästi hän ranteet irti, sysäsi hänet
luotaan ja sanoi ylenkatseellisesti:
— Mene nyt tiehesi, äläkä toista kertaa tule! Tällä kertaa pääset
vapaaksi vallesmannista, mutta jos näen sinusta vielä vilauksenkaan
Uramon torpassa, niin saat istua ruunun penkissä loput elämääsi.
Mutta puukkosi, sen pidän minä.
Anna nyökäytti hyväksyvästi päätään eikä vieras vaimo oikein
tiennyt, mitä hän tekisi. Lehtimaa mietti hetken aikaa, mutta ei
ymmärtänyt mitään. Tämän tähdenkö hän oli jättänyt työpaikkansa
ja nähnyt nälkää? Vielä kerran katsahti hän ympärilleen, mutta ei
niillä kellään näyttänyt olevan häntä sääli. Lapsetkin katselivat häntä
kauhistunein itkusilmin.
— Eikö Anna usko vieläkään, että minä tahdon hänen parastaan?
kysyi
Lehtimaa yhtäkkiä.
Kysymys sopi niin huonosti toisten ajatuksiin, että ne häntä vain
kummissaan katselivat ja Anna sanoi ystävällisesti: — Mene tiehesi
miesparka, kun kerran pääset!
Lehtimaa katsahti häneen niin surullisesti, että Annaa vähän alkoi
säälittää. Sitten meni hän mitään virkkamatta tiehensä jättäen
vieraan vaimon vakuuttamaan Annaa asiasta. Mutta tuskin hän oli
päässyt pois näkyvistä, kun hänen vilkkaissa aivoissaan syntyi uusi

tuuma, jonka avulla hän ihan varmaan tulisi saamaan sekä torpan
että Annan, sillä tottahan tämän silmät kerran kuitenkin avautuisivat.
Vaimo jäi lapsineen kartanolle, kun Kalle Pihl ja Anna menivät
sanaakaan sanomatta pirttiin. Hän istuutui tuvan rappusille kylmään
aamupakkaseen, otti lapset syliinsä ja alkoi lämmitellä heitä. Puolen
tunnin kuluttua tuli Kalle Pihl ulos, pukeutuneena
lammasnahkaturkkiin ja valmiina menemään metsään kirveineen.
— Mitä sinä vielä täällä teet? sanoi hän ja sysäsi vaimoa
polvellaan.
— Odotan leipää lapsillesi ja vaimollesi.
— Mutta enhän minä tunne sinua.
— Älä hylkää omaa joukkoasi, se ei jää rankaisematta.
— Ei minulla ole muuta joukkoa kuin vaimoni tuolla sisällä.
— Etkös sinä ole Kalle Pihl?
— En ole, vaikka minua siksi kutsutaan.
— Kukas sinä sitten olet?
— Se ei sinua liikuta.
— Mutta minä tunnen sinut Kalle Pihliksi.
— Olet voinut jossain nähdä — mistä minä sen tiedän.
— Etkö sitten tunne vaimoasi Johannaa ja omia lapsiasi?

— Enhän tunne, kun minulla on toinen vaimo, jolla ei ole lapsia.
— Älä paaduta itseäsi! rukoili vaimo ja katseli häntä kasvoihin.
— Korjaatko luusi ja paikalla!
— Älä ole noin sydämetön! Jumala sinut palkitsee, kun ajat
paranevat! En tahdo sinulle mitään pahaa, mutta koska sinulla on
hyvät päivät, niin et saa antaa lastesi paleltua ja nääntyä nälkään.
— En kuule sinua. Mitä siinä pitkität puheitasi, laittaudu
taipaleelle!
Naisen silmät säihkähtivät. Hän kohosi uhkaavana seisoalleen.
— Otatko meidät hyvällä hoitaaksesi, niin en puhu mitään?
— En ota, sanoi Kalle varmasti. — Vähäinenkin myöntäminen olisi
turmellut kaiken.
— Silloin katso eteesi, Kalle Pihl! — Sinua en pelkää!
— Mutta minä näytän, että pelkäät! ja hän aikoi tunkeutua pirttiin.
Samassa tuli Anna ulos kokonainen leipä ja kourallinen silakoita
mukanaan. Hän ojensi ne vaimolle sanoen:
— Mene nyt vain! Näethän, ettei sinua täällä kuitenkaan uskota.
Vieras vaimo silmäili pilkallisesti leipää ja kaunista Annaa, nosti
nuorimman lapsensa käsivarrelleen ja tarttui toista käteen, sylkäisi
kolme kertaa kynnykselle ja syöksi suustaan sanat:

— Hyi! — Hyi! — Hyi! — Kirottu olkoon hän ja hänen
jalkavaimonsa!
Ja kirottu olkoon se leipä, jota he syövät! — Hyi!
Ja hän meni samaa tietä kuin Lehtimaakin taakseen
katsahtamatta.
Kalle Pihlillä ja Annalla ei ollut monta iloista sanaa toisilleen
sanottavana, kun vieras oli mennyt. Mies nakkasi kirveen olalleen ja
aikoi jatkaa matkaansa metsään, kun vaimo heitti häneen terävän
silmäyksen ja kysyi:
— Etkö ole koskaan ennen nähnyt tuota vaimoa?
— Älä ole lapsellinen, Anna! Uskotko kerjäläisakkaa enemmän kuin
minua?
— En uskokaan, mutta sillä oli semmoiset silmät ja se puhui niin
voimakkaasti, ettei olisi luullut valehtelijaksi.
— Vai aiot sinäkin pettää minut, juuri kun sinua eniten tarvitsen.
— Enhän minä petä sinua … mutta … miksi et voi sanoa minulle
niin kuin asia on? huudahti hän.
— Olenhan minä sen jo sanonut.
— Niin — niin! Mutta minkäs minä sille voin, että tulee niin
kummallisia ajatuksia.
— Mitä sinä niistä sitten ajattelet! Ei kukaan voi näyttää toteen,
että minulla olisi ollut mitään hänen kanssaan tekemistä.
— Vaan jos vetävät sinut oikeuden eteen?

— Niin vetäkööt! Minuun eivät kateet saa kynsiään isketyksi.
Kalle Pihl nakkasi kirveen olalleen ja lähti menemään metsää
kohden niin rauhallisin askelin, että Anna hänen jälkeensä
katsellessaan rauhoittui, meni pirttiin ja lukitsi oven jälkeensä. Eihän
sitä näinä aikoina, kun maailma kihisi kerjäläisiä, uskaltanut pitää
oveaan auki päivälläkään.
Pian oli tullut kylän tiedoksi, että Uramossa oli käynyt ryövärejä,
eikä Kalle Pihl suinkaan salannut, että ilkityön tekijä oli ollut
Lehtimaa. Kun huhu saapui Kotkaisiin, ei sitä alussa tahdottu uskoa;
tuntui aivan mahdottomalta, että sellaista voisi tehdä mies, joka niin
kauan oli saanut työtä ja ruokaa talosta ja joka oli osoittanut
olevansa niin siivo ja hyväluontoinen. Mutta huhu tuli yhä
varmemmaksi, Kalle Pihl oli näyttänyt Lehtimaan oman puukon,
jonka hän itse oli vääntänyt pahantekijän kädestä, ja niin täytyi
kaikkien uskoa.
Neiti Louise tuli kovin murheelliseksi siitä, että hänen suosikkinsa
näin pahasti oli palkinnut hänen ystävyytensä, — nyt oli tuo yksi
ainoakin viaton tehnyt suuren rikoksen. Häntä puistatti, että hän niin
monta kertaa oli sellaisen miehen kanssa puhellut, mutta se
kuitenkin vähän helpotti, ettei se ollut käynyt isän tai äidin tai hänen
kimppuunsa. Varatuomari kummasteli sitä, ettei Kalle Pihl ollut
toimittanut pahantekijää nimismiehen käsiin, ja hänessä syntyi sen
johdosta pieniä epäilyksiä, vaikka toisekseen saattoi hyvinkin
ymmärtää, että hätä voi tuollaiset maankulkijat pakottaa melkein
mihin tahansa. Ainoa, joka kokonaan oli Lehtimaan puolella, oli
rouva von Blume. Hän ei voinut uskoa Lehtimaasta näin pahaa, vaan
pikemmin hän uskoi sitä Kalle Pihlistä. Eivätkä hänen vakuutustaan

saaneet mitkään kertomukset järkytetyiksi, ne olivat pelkkää
panettelua, tai siinä oli jotain, jonka syytä eivät muut saaneet tietää.
Mutta Lehtimaata alettiin karttaa kaikkialla sekä rautatietyömiesten
että muiden rehellisten ihmisten seuroissa. Kaikki häntä epäilivät,
häntä katseltiin kieroon, hänelle sanottiin suoraan, mitä hänestä
ajateltiin, ja hänen tuli vaikeaksi saada ruokaa henkensä pitimeksi.
Mutta hän ei tahtonut lähteä pois paikkakunnalta ennen kuin saisi
asiansa selvitetyksi Uramolaisten kanssa, ja vaikkei kukaan enää
uskonutkaan hänen puheitaan, toivoi hän yhäkin sitkeästi, että
koston hetki olisi pian koittava ja että totuus kerran olisi maan
perivä.
Kotkaisissa hän ei enää uskaltanut näyttäytyäkään, sitten kun
häntä siellä oli törkeästi solvaistu ja palvelusväki häntä ilkkuen
pilkannut, niin että hänen mieltänsä kirveli. Kun rouva von Blume
jälkeenpäin sai kuulla, että hän oli näyttäytynyt Kotkaisissa ja sieltä
karkotettu, moitti hän väkeään tästä kovuudesta ja käski tuomaan
hänet luokseen, jos hän kerran vielä ilmaantuisi taloon.
Mutta Lehtimaa oli vetäytynyt etäisiin sydänmaan mökkeihin ja
ulkokartanoihin asiansa menoa odottamaan.
Kalle Pihlin vaimon hän oli tavannut pari päivää heidän Uramossa
käyntinsä jälkeen, ja kun Lehtimaa oli saanut kuulla, mitenkä asiat
siellä olivat päättyneet, kirosi hän maat ja taivaat täyteen ja aikoi
heti mennä nimismiehen luo antamaan itsensä ilmi, mutta älykäs
Johanna oli lasten tähden tahtonut, että asiaa olisi ajettava toisella
tavalla, jottei Kalle Pihl joutuisi vankeuteen, vaan voisi hoitaa
perhettään kovimpain aikain yli. Kauan aikaa tuumittuaan sopivat he
siitä, että Johanna menisi ensiksi kapteeni Thoreldin ja sitten rouva
von Blumen puheille, jos ei Herrasaaresta mitään apua lähtisi. Sillä

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