Mef panel intro slides feb 2019 mobilesquared
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This document discusses business messaging trends and forecasts. It finds that while mobile operators currently dominate business messaging revenues through SMS, over-the-top (OTT) apps like WhatsApp have much higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and represent a significant threat. The number of potential users for rich communication services (RCS) is growing but still lags SMS and OTT apps. Under certain forecast assumptions, WhatsApp revenues from business users alone could reach $10 billion by 2023 and surpass SMS ARPU by 2021, representing a major revenue opportunity that currently bypasses mobile operators.
Mef panel intro slides feb 2019 mobilesquared
- 1. A snappy business messaging update 25 February 2019 Nick Lane Chief Insight Analyst, Mobilesquared nick@mobilesquared.co.uk @Mobilesquared
- 2. TOTAL DEVICES Mobile operator messaging perspective MESSAGING POTENTIAL JAN 2019 1 bil 2 bil 3 bil 4 bil 4 bil M O B I L E O P E R A T O R M E S S A G I N G R C S MESSAGING POTENTIAL USERS RCS A N D R O I D S M A R T P H O N E S A B C 3.5 bil 2.8 bil 0.9 bil 0.7 bil
- 3. Business messaging spend (US$) MESSAGING APPS END 2018, ARPU 5 bil 10 bil 15 bil 20 bil SMS ARPU US$3.61 Mobile operators dominate business messaging revenues OTT ARPU ? US$17.02
- 4. Total business messaging (SMS + RCS) INCOME (US$) - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Billions Total A2P SMS spend RCS @Mobilesquared US$41.4
- 5. The WhatsApp juggernaut - 2 4 6 8 10 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Billions WhatsApp for Business revenues (US$) Data to emphasise WhatsApp threat only! Forecasts based on: 3 million registered businesses (end 2018) growing at 20% year-on-year during forecast period MaB (Monthly active Business) = 33% per year. Average sized database of 2,500 year-on-year. Avg message cost $0.03472, based on avg cost in launch markets, applied throughout. In this scenario WhatsApp for Business will: enjoy spend 18 times higher than RCS by the end of 2019. Will generate a higher ARPU than SMS in 2021. Cumulative spend of $30 billion on WhatsApp during forecast period. Nb Mobilesquared’s actual forecasts on WhatsApp for Business will be published in September 2019 7.2 5 3.5 2.4 1.7 0.4 ARPU