Megatrends by HP: 2017 Update
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The document discusses the ongoing influence of four megatrends on various aspects of life, including urban migration, housing affordability challenges, and the rise of smart cities. It highlights the increasing participation of women in the workforce and the emergence of a diverse global middle class, particularly in developing countries, shaping consumer behavior. It also examines Generation Z's unique characteristics and expectations as digital natives, indicating that their approach to work and technology will redefine future societal norms.
Megatrends by HP: 2017 Update
- 2. The 4 key Megatrends we identified last year haven’t change (link to 2016 Report: http://bit.ly/megatrendspres), but their impact on the world around us continues to evolve. Megatrends shape both our physical and digital worlds, and this year we focused on how they are shaping our experiences as human beings. Everything from how we pay for things to how we learn and stay healthy, Megatrends are impacting nearly every experience we have.
- 3. In 2015 we discussed how these four Megatrends will have a sustained and transformative impact on businesses, societies, economies, cultures and our personal lives in unimaginable ways in the years to come. We also explored many of the ripple effects these Megatrends will have on the world around us.
- 4. This year, we will highlight additional socio-economic, demographic and technological trends arising as a consequence of these Megatrends, and how they are shaping our experiences as human beings.
- 7. As millions of people move into cities every week, this puts a huge strain on space, on city resources, on energy requirements, on infrastructure cost, and cities are being forced to evolve to meet this increased demand or collapse under the pressure. Smarter Cities: This is leading to an increase in the number of Smart City projects that are being implemented around the world. For example, smart grids, networked LED street lights, urban mobility, public Wi-Fi, open data platforms, water management, and government service applications. Technology is a key enabler: sensors, edge computing, networks, data platforms, cloud and services. Leading to huge and growing new business opportunities, especially in emerging economies where many of our largest and most populous cities will be in the future. · Smarter Places: As more people move to cities, demand for housing has increased – as have prices. For the growing contingent of millennials looking to rent or buy, affordability of housing is a challenge especially in metros like NYC and San Francisco. To deal with this supply-demand imbalance, micro-housing has become a key trend in large US cities – SF, Seattle and Boston have all passed zoning laws to allow for apartments of 400sqft or less. In 2016, New York City approved legislation that lifted a city ban on apartments smaller than 400 square feet. And as more people move to cities, and cities become more congested, co-working spaces are also on the rise. Freelancers, startups and even corporations are using co-working spaces to spark creativity and inspiration as well as to obviously save real estate costs in expensive cities. Sources: • https://www.navigantresearch.com/research/smart-city-tracker-4q15 • https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-smart-cities-market • http://www.deskmag.com/en/2016-forecast-global-coworking-survey-results • http://www.investinbsr.com/ipaforum/wp-content/uploads/Iain-Jawad-IPA-Forum-2014-Presentation.pdf
- 10. However, with more people moving to dense cities and megacities, pollution has been on the rise. So much so that cities now produce nearly 3/4th of the world’s greenhouse emissions. Due to global warming, each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature era, which dates to 1880. As a result, nearly 700 cities around the world recently committed to a 100% renewable energy transition by 2050. Some cities such as Dubai fear that if this heat wave continues over the next two decades it would be inhabitable for its citizens to stay, let alone work outside. Hence, they are looking at alternatives such as creating the world’s first climate controlled dome city, which will accommodate the world's largest shopping center, over 100 hotels, and a wellness district for medical tourists. Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/a-mega-dome-in-dubai-is-set-for-completion-in-under-five-years-a6870231.html
- 12. So what will the cities of the future look like? They might be something like The Great City, a high-density development project outside of Chengdu in China, which is intended to address problems of overpopulation, pollution and urban sprawl. The city is designed with a central core of vertical housing offering efficient living space for 80,000 people, surrounded by greenspace for growing food. The car-less city is entirely walkable, with the outer reaches accessible through mass transit. The design is expected to use 48% less energy and 58% less water than existing cities of comparable size, and to generate 89% less landfill waste and 60% less carbon dioxide. Source: http://weburbanist.com/2013/02/11/car-free-city-china-builds-dense-metropolis-from-scratch/ Image Source: http://smithgill.com/work/great_city_master_plan/
- 15. In both developed and developing markets around the world, the participation of women in the labor force continues to increase with an estimated 1.75bn women in the workforce as of 2015 – an additional quarter of a billion women have entered the global labor force since 2006 alone. In Australia women as a proportion of the labor force has increased from 43% in 1978 to ~60% in 2015. In Canada, women were 47% of the total labor force in 2015 versus 37% in 1976. Consider that if you’re a woman living in Uganda, Namibia or Nigeria (Africa’s largest economy), you are 3X more likely than your husband, son or brother to run a business! And as participation in the work force has increased, so has women's impact on the economy. In the US, it is estimated that women control ~$14tn of wealth in 2015 and women influence 85% of all consumer purchases. In the next decade it is estimated that close to 1 billion women, mostly in the developing world, are going to enter the formal economy and become new economic contributors, as full-time workers and micro-entrepreneurs. The growing pace of urban migration, access to education, better health, mobile technologies and micro credit will continue to fuel this phenomenon. Sources: http://fortune.com/2014/04/28/in-25-years-will-more-women-rise-to-the-ceo-seat/ http://reports.weforum.org/global-gender-gap-report-2015/report-highlights/ https://rickfontana.website.raymondjames.com/view-resource?r=rise-of-the-female-breadwinner http://she-conomy.com/report/marketing-to-women-quick-facts http://www.unwomen.org/en/what-we-do/economic-empowerment/facts-and-figures https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/consumer_products_globalization_driving_growth_the_ female_economy_in_china_and_india/ http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/how-advancing-womens-equality- can-add-12-trillion-to-global-growth https://nawbo.org/resources/women-business-owner-statistics
- 16. Women represent a significant customer base. Sources: http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/27/technology/india-smartphone-panic-button-rape/ http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/26/11507290/india-phone-panic-button-women-safety
- 17. Women are business leaders. Sources: https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/239995 http://readwrite.com/2016/11/19/where-are-all-the-women-in-tech-theyre-in-wearables/
- 18. Women in the workforce are a significant driver of economic growth. Source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-imf-equal-pay-growth-20161110-story.html
- 20. So in a world where gender parity is achieved, what would it mean for companies, consumer spending and governments? Perhaps businesses will look to tap into the purchasing power of women by designing and building products geared toward the unique sensibilities and circumstances of women – ex: Everpurse – clutch that charges your smartphone (iPhone or Samsung galaxy). For the workplace, it might mean that companies allow more “working from home” so that women can meet both their job and family commitments. In the political and social sphere, more women in decision making roles may improve policy outcomes as has been seen in Finland (ministry is 62% female, public education system that is global gold standard) and Rwanda (parliament is 64% female, lower maternal mortality rate than all sub-Saharan countries, 87% of women in labor force). Sources: http://theconversation.com/more-women-than-ever-are-in-the-workforce-but- progress-has-been-glacial-54893 http://www.catalyst.org/knowledge/statistical-overview-women- workforce#footnote29_d4hdls2 http://fortune.com/2015/03/05/women-in-the-workforce/ http://time.com/4101749/justin-trudeau-women-cabinet-parliament-government/
- 23. From ~2018 onwards, the world will be predominantly middle class for the first time in history and not predominantly poor. But this global middle class will not be uniform across the world, neither will it be homogenous. Hence it is not just a new middle class BUT a variety of new middle classes. If the 20th century economy can be defined by the burgeoning middle class in industrialized economies of the US and Europe, then the 21st century economy will be defined by the expanding middle class in developing and emerging countries especially in Asia and specifically driven by India and China. As the 20th century economic growth engine of the US and Europe shrinks with declining or stagnating real incomes, the purchasing behavior and preferences of this middle class is also changing. US consumers are tending toward value brands, while the middle class in emerging and developing countries are beginning to flex their consumer spending muscles and seeking out quality products and services. Sources: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/ http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/america-the-frugal-us-consumer-sentiment- survey http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/here-comes-the-modern-chinese-consumer http://www.ey.com/gl/en/newsroom/news-releases/news_by-2030-two-thirds-of-global-middle-class- will-be-in-asia-pacific
- 27. Hence we are seeing a role reversal in terms of middle class growth and consumption power and preferences – moving from a growing middle class in developed markets and thrifty consumers in emerging markets to a polarized middle class in developed markets and premium buyers in emerging markets.
- 28. So in a future where global consumer spending is dominated by emerging and developing countries in the east, what will it mean for the future success of Western companies? What will it mean for product design, portfolios and marketing strategies? Perhaps businesses will need to create products from the ground-up that cater to the environment and preferences of emerging market consumers – ex: dust-resistant devices for arid regions like in India and Africa. Perhaps products will first be introduced in emerging markets before making their way to Western countries – a role reversal compared to the modus operandi today. Ex: China’s WeChat was first messaging app that became a platform integrating with other services (cabs, food delivery etc.), Facebook Messenger followed suit as did Line (Japan) and Kik (Canada). And as the middle class purchasing power increases, luxe may become the new normal in countries like China and India. And what of Western middle class consumers? These consumers will be more polarized into the wealthy and the poor with a much smaller middle class. Hence companies will need to rethink their portfolio mix and offer high- end, feature packed offerings as well as “value-for-many” products to capture the more frugal consumers. One thing is for certain, a keener understanding of these new middle class consumers will be imperative to achieving success, given their heterogeneity in culture and preferences. Sources: https://www.die-gdi.de/uploads/media/DP_35.2014.pdf http://magazine.pewtrusts.org/en/archive/trend-summer-2016/how-a-growing-global-middle-class-could-save- the-worlds-economy
- 32. As businesses and marketers focus on the millennial generation, the generation currently in their teens are beginning to come into focus. Numbering 2.6bn globally, Gen Z is about a quarter of the US population and will account for 40% of all consumers by 2020. By 2020, Gen Z will make up 36% of the GLOBAL workforce. Born after 1995, one of the unique characteristics of Gen Zers is that they have not spent a day of their lives without the Internet, and a smart phone was probably the first computer they owned. Almost 80% have access to a smartphone, and more than half of them use YouTube and social media to do research for their assignments. And because they've never spent a day offline, they are acutely aware of the issues and global challenges happening in the world around them. As a result they are 54% more likely to say they want to have an impact on the world as compared to millennials. Their attitudes toward work and employers is also noteworthy as almost half of them consider working for a company that helps make the world a better place as important of a consideration as the salary. Generation Z is the first generation of digital natives with a new set of expectations and a different style of working Sources: http://www.forbes.com/sites/axiometrics/2015/12/08/the-youth-shall-lead-them-toward- renting/#4c6c59cc6e56 http://www.getvenga.com/blog/generation-z https://www.at.ford.com/content/dam/atford/archive/2014_NA/Dec/Ford-2015-TrendReportBook.pdf http://popsop.com/2014/11/hyper-aware-generation-z-is-the-most-resistant-to-irresponsible-business- practices-a-new-research-finds/ http://salt-communications.com/generation-z/ http://blog.marketing.org.nz/2014/07/07/generation-z-consumers-implications-marketers/ http://www.slideshare.net/sparksandhoney/generation-z-final-june-17/3-There_is_a_population_tsunami
- 37. So what might the world look like when Gez Z come of age? • They will pursue diverse careers and aspire to work around the world (on average: 15 homes, 5 careers and 17 jobs) • Ownership may become obsolete as members of this generation choose to move around the world at regular intervals and seek jobs in different regions that are best suited to their passions/interest at that time • This generation will mature in the age of exponential technologies – from AI to digital assistants, and from augmented reality to genetic engineering. Technologies are changing so fast, that education will literally become a lifelong pursuit for Gen Zers. • Because technology is changing the world around us so fast, their career choices are likely to be very different. Of children entering school today 65% will work in jobs and in industries that do not currently exist • With their passion for changing the world, how will Gen Z use these technologies to tackle and solve some of the world's most pressing problems? • Some even believe that Gen Z may well be the first “Immortal Generation". Researchers have proposed that it is likely that the first human to live for a 1000 years is already born – and most likely this is an individual or individuals from the Gen Z cohort. • Amidst all the questions, the one certainty is that like millennials before them, Gen Z is poised to disrupt our world and redefine every aspect of life.
- 40. We live longer now, and we are more sedentary, so chronic diseases such as diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and Alzheimer’s are on the rise. These long-term degenerative diseases place a high cost burden on our healthcare systems. The sooner doctors can detect, treat, and/or prevent these conditions in patients, the more they can reduce this burden. This presents exciting opportunities for MedTech companies. With the adoption of digital health, big data could transform the healthcare sector, but the industry must undergo fundamental changes before stakeholders can capture its full value. If digital health technologies take hold the way many believe they will, countries such as the U.S. may no longer have to worry about a pressing shortage of primary care physicians. Healthcare organizations are carving out new playing fields, thanks to rapid advances in cloud and mobility. Today’s new and evolving platforms comprise well-defined architecture, governance and services and are underpinned by the latest digital tools—social, mobile, cloud, Internet of Things and others. Platforms for care delivery will evolve, improving the ability to provide relevant information, access and control to consumers and caregivers. Care will be ubiquitous, as technology can bridge any distance. Sources: http://www.fightchronicdisease.org/sites/default/files/pfcd_blocks/PFCD_US.FactSheet_FINAL1%20%282%29.pdf http://www.adlittle.com/downloads/tx_adlreports/ADL_2016_Succeeding_With_Digital_Health.pdf https://www.genomicsengland.co.uk/the-100000-genomes-project/understanding-genomics/genome-sequencing/ https://www.genome.gov/27565109/the-cost-of-sequencing-a-human-genome/ http://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0053_defense-comparison https://lanekenworthy.net/2011/07/10/americas-inefficient-health-care-system-another-look/ http://medcitynews.com/2013/11/deloitte-six-trends-shaping-big-data-used-healthcare/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2015/04/21/how-big-data-is-changing-healthcare/#689df83132d9 http://www.enterpriseinnovation.net/article/healthcare-wearable-devices-revenues-reach-18-9-b-2020-663428177 https://www.aamc.org/download/426242/data/ihsreportdownload.pdf http://www.aarp.org/relationships/caregiving/info-07-2011/caregivers-save-us-health-care-system-money.html https://openforum.hbs.org/challenge/precision-medicine/evaluate/machine-learning-guided-precision-trials-for-major- chronic-debilitating-diseases http://www.healthsciences.org/Infographic-The-Costs-of-Chronic-Disease-Implications-for-Health-Care
- 41. Of the 10 million patients presenting annually to EDs in the US with the symptoms, less than 20% are ultimately diagnosed with a heart attack. Accurate and timely troponin measurements are crucial for identifying heart muscle necrosis and effectively triaging patients. However, central labs are hard-pressed to return results in under one hour, while point-of-care systems require unwieldy instruments and often cannot detect low yet meaningful levels of troponin. Xip Troponin will allow ED professionals to more quickly and easily triage patients suspected of a heart attack, saving thousands of lives and billions of dollars. Source: http://xip.life/
- 45. Going forward, we expect to see an even greater use of smart sensors, as well as wearables and virtual reality to help doctors and caregivers provide life-saving support in complex situations. For example, robust virtual reality applications and tools with smart, gyroscope-enabled sensors could be used to help medical providers deliver critical, first-level support in simulated environments. Critical information could be relayed via smart eyewear to a doctor during surgery to assist in treatment. Likewise, caregivers could even receive data using connected eyewear while still on the way to an emergency, allowing faster assessment of a patient’s situation when seconds count. With the power of IoT and the ubiquitous nature of smart devices, innovative companies will continue to accelerate the connection of smart objects in new and differentiated ways to reinvent healthcare, making it more accessible, personalized, manageable and ultimately delivering better quality patient care.
- 48. The gig economy emerged in the aftermath of the financial crisis and gained traction as digital platforms began proliferating. Today, the gig workforce is growing 5x faster than the US employment growth. And gig workers worldwide are making significant economic contributions: ~$1tn in the US in 2015 and ~£109bn in the UK in 2015. Demographic shifts are also playing their part in fueling the gig economy. Surveys show the proclivity of millennials toward flexible work hours and “being my own boss” mind-set. The gig economy lends itself perfectly to their attitudes and thus it is not surprising that millennials are more likely to be gig workers compared to Gen X and Baby boomers. For companies, gig workers allow them to fill skill gaps and realize cost efficiencies (no healthcare benefits etc.) and it has been forecast that 50% of the Fortune 100 workforce will become contingent or “gig” based within the next 5 years. Sources: http://www.pmgroup1.com/for-freedom-money-stability-the-state-of-the-independent-workforce/ https://www.mbopartners.com/blog/independent-workers-make-meaningful-economic-contributions- new-infographic http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/britains-economy-boosted-by-109bn-contribution-freelance-workers-1556649 http://www.fastcompany.com/3044478/the-future-of-work/why-millennials-understand-the-future-of- work-more-than-anyone-else http://www.addisongroup.com/news/havent-bought-into-the-gig-economy-survey-data-shows- overwhelming-comfort-w/ http://jobenomicsblog.com/contingent-workforce-report/
- 53. So in a world where there are no full-time employees anymore, what might that world look like? From a ‘worker perspective’ that means a constant shift from one gig to another. New digital platforms will be needed to support people looking for their next gig and match them with companies needing people for an open gig. For both workers and companies, it will mean more flexibility, but less predictability. What might it mean for teams and teamwork if the players on a team are constantly changing? What might it mean for companies where their employee base is constantly shifting? What will it mean for our offices and IT infrastructure and the BYO devices used to do work across many different companies? One thing’s for sure, it means that talent recruitment and management will play a much more important role in this version of the future.
- 57. The accelerating need for cyber secure systems is compounded by the significant increases in devices and technologies that can be attacked (growing attack surface) and the increasing economic value that is relying on these vulnerable technologies. While PCs have learned best practices for minimizing cyber-attacks, an increasing number of attacks are on new (IoT) systems. Overall we see a seriously degrading threat landscape. Cybersecurity is a geopolitical issue. The scale and scope of the attacks is growing, and the impacts are moving beyond economic. Various DDOS attacks include those on Estonia, Georgia (done in conjunction with military escalation with Russia), Stuxnet (which destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities), and the attack on Sony Pictures (suspected by North Korea based on a political film they didn’t like). Rising suspicions and evidence of spying are based on red October malware (found in many states), Snowden leaks about US practices, and the recent allegations relating to DNC hacks as an attack on US election process. Governments are also creating legislation aimed to contest status quo of the internet evolution. Germany insisting vendors abide by clause not to pass info to other states. Russia & China policy challenge to West/US centric internet governance. Cyber security challenges must be addressed to avoid further balkanization of cyberspace. Sources: http:/b_8762322.html/www.newamerica.org/cybersecurity-initiative/policy-papers/doomed-to-repeat-history-lessons- from-the-crypto-wars-of-the-1990s/ http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:32000D0520:EN:HTML http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-23/tor-anonymity-software-vs-dot-the-national-security-agency http://historyofbitcoin.org/ https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/10/silk-road-internet-market-illegal-drugs-ross-Ulbricht https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/silk-road-3-0-back-will-last/ http://www.vanityfair.com/news/politics/2014/05/edward-snowden-politics-interview http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-approves-privacy-shield-data-transfer-pact-with-u-s-1468322858 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/acm-the-association-for-computing-machinery/wanting-it-bad-enough-won_
- 58. DDOS attacks are measured in gigabits per second (GPS) and the largest grow up to 2-300GPS. This recent one on Dyn reached 620GPS and disrupted major sites like Twitter and Amazon (the picture shows in red where the outages were felt). This was achieved by compromising hundreds of thousands of end-point IoT devices (webcams and DVRs). And so it is a good illustration of (proxy for) how the lack of security maturity in new tech makes attacks like this easier, and therefore increases the “supply” for attackers, and because the consequences for large sites is ever more painful (i.e. more value) there is an increased “demand” for the attacker. Source: https://krebsonsecurity.com/2016/10/hacked-cameras-dvrs-powered-todays-massive-internet-outage/
- 62. How do we see this developing? Today we see the rush to have features at the edge (UX, data collection (money making) but has privacy) will create more cyber threats (i.e. steeper decline in cyber security than the status quo). As we have richer cyber physical systems – the threats and impact of cyber attacks will go up (i.e. real physical implications such as power, transport, collateral damage of cyber-kinetic warfare) and users will see this. At some point – maybe due to quantum computing breaking RSA/ECC crypto – we will find all data will be accessible and minable and so everything we thought was confidential could be exposed. By then we will have reached a tipping point in user trust – whereby users stop trusting new tech and even re-trench to more basic mechanisms (paper) to get things done within and across different tech fiefdoms in ways they trust – leading to innovation in paper based economies. At this point it will be up to the tech industry to innovate and achieve much higher degrees of trust and resilience In other words, it will get worse before it gets better. As data sources continue to grow, enterprises will need the capability of storing and analyzing the multitude of events gathered by various sensors. This requires investments in both people and technologies. While these investments have an initial outpouring of capital, the savings will be seen in preventing and responding to the inevitable breach.
- 65. Paper bills and coins have been the primary representation of money since the turn of the 18th century. Gradually money has seen digitization with credit cards and debit cards being the physical manifestation of the transition. Recently a new transition is taking place to eliminate the analog aspect and completely digitize the entire card system. Enabling this transition won’t be easy, considering that 85% of global consumer transactions annually are still done with paper bills and coins – especially in developing countries. Changing the fundamental transaction behavior of people across the world from the exchange of cash to the transfer of data is already underway. The agent of this change is the smartphone. New technologies like digital wallets, NFC, crypto-currencies and mobile peer-to-peer payments are all aiming to tip the balance away from cash. Consider that NFC-enabled mobile phone shipments has grown from 93.2mn in 2011 to 544.7mn in 2015 and mobile payment purchases worldwide have increased from $240bn in 2011 to $670bn in 2015. Digital currencies like Bitcoin have also gained traction, with daily transaction volumes increasing by 81% in 2015 vs. 2014 and some countries are even attempting to go completely cash-less. Sources: http://www.slideshare.net/CoinDesk/state-of-bitcoin-and-blockchain-2016-57577869/63- While_Average_Daily_Bitcoin_TransactionsIncreased http://thefinancialbrand.com/45284/banking-mobile-payments-bitcoin-research/ http://www.psfk.com/2016/05/eye-scanner-log-into-your-bank-account-wells-fargo.html http://fortune.com/2016/02/22/mastercard-selfie-pay/ https://cointelegraph.com/news/cash-electronic-money-Scandinavia https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/04/sweden-cashless-society-cards-phone-apps-leading- europe
- 70. If paper bills and coins or plastic cards are no longer the physical manifestations of currency, what would happen? We could imagine a future where every internet-connected device becomes a commerce device (Ex: Amazon Echo; Dash buttons) Eventually payments may become invisible and our very presence may be sufficient to conduct a transaction for whatever good or service we desire. Perhaps money laundering and tax evasion would be completely eradicated. At the same time, we would become even more vulnerable to cybercrime and any glitch in the system could bring a country’s entire financial infrastructure to its knees. The anonymity afforded by cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could also be used for nefarious means like funding terrorism. The risks and benefits of digital currency and basic trust associated with these transactions are being debated on all sides of the planet – from governments to financial institutions and central banks. Regardless of how currency evolves from a physical manifestation to bits and biometrics, it is clear that the very notion of transactions and trust will be transformed. We are indeed heading toward a future where the global economy might be run on a global virtual currency managed by a global central bank, powered by consumers who are themselves engines of transactions by their very existence.
- 74. In the past we used to tell computers what to do - we developed algorithms to tell them what to do, we programmed them. But there's a lot of things in life where we don't know the algorithm or how we would program a computer to do something, like recognize a face, understand language, drive a car. What we do have is a lot of data. Put simply, AI is all about teaching computers to learn from all this data. This is not new technology. AI has been around for over 60 years, so why now? Lots of data is being generated by the world around us, there are new breakthroughs in algorithms, and lots of computing power is available to run these algorithms on all the data we need to learn from. Because of this, funding is pouring into AI start-ups, with over $1.5B invested in the first half of 2016 alone, with AI start-ups being acquired by the truck load by large established players. Now everything around us is being infused with AI, from Nest thermostats to our Facebook feeds to the self-driving cars that are starting to join us on the roads. Simply put, AI is making its way into absolutely every device and service around us today. Sources: https://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/index.htm?pid=home-dig-uni-090414 https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/artificial-intelligence-funding-trends-q216/
- 77. Source: https://www.wired.com/2016/03/google-sharing-powerful-ai-everyone-cloud/
- 79. Now, there are some people who believe that given the exponential rate of change of technology, by 2029 we will reach a point called The Singularity, which is when AI becomes more intelligent than a human being, and then just a few short years later, again because of the same exponential rate of change, it will surpass the collective intelligence of the entire human race. This is not some kooky science fiction movie. Intelligent, rationale people are predicting this. So it also isn't pure science fiction to imagine a world in the not too distant future where we each have a virtual AI assistant that not only looks after our every need, but anticipates it. Where everything around us is imbued with intelligence and can anticipate our needs and deliver us information, products and services exactly when we need them, exactly how we like them. Maybe we even have AI friends, not just assistants. When we talk about Home of the Future, Office of the Future, Classroom of the Future and Hospital of the Future, AI will be the enabler that enables these experiences to come to life. And AI is following the same path as nearly every other successful technology. It's moving from something that was once novel and new, to being offered by emerging AI platform players as a utility like electricity. Take X and add AI: The age of intelligent automation is upon us …
- 82. Eight years ago, when Steve Jobs launched an online shop for smartphone apps, few expected that it would result in over 100bn apps downloaded and $40bn in revenues for developers and many more billions in subscriptions and other fees in less than a decade. Today, although download numbers are growing, the app economy is reaching maturity. Consider that the 20 most successful developers account for nearly half of all revenues on Apple’s app store and ~25% of downloaded apps are abandoned after a single use. Also consider that users are spending an increasing amount of time in just a few apps – social and messaging. Over 2.5bn people have at least one messaging app installed and many now spend more time on sending instant messaging than on social networks. In fact, Whatsapp users spend on average 200 minutes each week on the app. The mobile “OS+ app” paradigm is shifting and messaging is now taking on the role played by the mobile operating system. Coupled with the advances in artificial intelligence and the services built on AI, we're seeing chatbots becoming the next mobile interface. If the last decade was characterized by “there’s an app for that”, this next decade will be characterized by “there’s a bot for that.” Sources: http://flurrymobile.tumblr.com/post/115195353190/messaging-apps-the-new-face-of-retail-banking http://www.businessinsider.com/messaging-apps-retain-more-users-and-are-used-more-frequently- than-other-apps-2015-4 https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/bot-startups-timeline/ http://info.mindmeld.com/survey2016q1.html http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adoption-of-intelligent-voice-assistants-hits-tipping-point- 300229279.html
- 85. Microsoft's new speech-recognition record means professional transcribers could be among the first to lose their jobs to artificial intelligence Sources: http://www.technewsworld.com/story/84013.html http://blogs.microsoft.com/next/2016/10/18/historic-achievement-microsoft-researchers-reach-human-parity-conversational-speech-recognition/
- 87. As these bots proliferate and even become personalized, we can imagine a world where our digital lives are orchestrated by our very own digital doppelgangers. From prioritizing your email to scheduling your calendar, and from sending flowers to your mother on her birthday to planning and booking your vacations – bots may become as critical to our existence as the internet itself is today. In this future, with ever improving artificial intelligence could bots become more than just assistants? Perhaps they could be our life coaches or therapists – the latter is being tested on Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Hoping to support the efforts of overworked psychologists in the region, the Silicon Valley startup X2AI has created an artificially intelligent chatbot called Karim that can have personalized text message conversations in Arabic to help people with their emotional problems. Perhaps chatbots become our life companions and best friends. And we can text them or we can talk to them, but for sure at some point in the future we will interact and converse with technology as it if was human. Sources: http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21696477-market-apps-maturing-now-one-text- based-services-or-chatbots-looks-poised https://techcrunch.com/2015/09/29/forget-apps-now-the-bots-take-over/ https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/22/karim-the-ai-delivers-psychological-support-to- syrian-refugees
- 90. Job automation has been occurring for the past two centuries. In the US, 50% of the work force was in the agricultural sector in 1870, vs less than 2% in 2008. However, each time technology has automated a profession, new jobs have been created. While automation can substitute for labor, more often than not, it complements labor. When mechanical looms were introduced, it actually resulted in the quadrupling of weavers as they were needed to tend the machines. And although ATMs did results in fewer bank tellers, the number of urban bank branches rose as banks were able to add more staff for sales and customer service. Current advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics is bringing about another wave of job automation. Technology is now changing so fast there is reason to believe the pace of job automation will greatly outpace the rate at which new jobs are created. Researchers at the University of Oxford forecast that 35% of jobs in the UK and 47% of jobs in the US could be automated in the next two decades. McKinsey predicts that 40mn to 75mn jobs could be jeopardized by robots in the next ten years. Because of factory automation, 85% of the jobs in China could be automated. And it’s not just manual labor or repetitive tasks at risk, but white collar jobs – McKinsey estimates that automation of knowledge work could have an economic impact of $5.2tn to $6.7tn by 2025 in terms of labor cost savings and efficiency improvements. Sources: http://www.computerworld.com/article/2989830/it-careers/machines-are-replacing-writers-gartner-says.html http://www.cio.com.au/article/586187/robots-take-over-workplace-by-2018-gartner/ https://www.statista.com/chart/4487/where-are-jobs-most-likely-to-be-replaced-by-robots/ http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/automation-reduces-hiring-of-tcs-infosys-wipro-hcl-and-cognizant-by-24- report/articleshow/51276619.cms http://www.livemint.com/Companies/wnAHNojuGO2En8zQpItZLP/Wipro-to-deploy-AI-platform-Holmes-to-do-the-job-of- 3000-en.html http://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2015/11/06/technological-unemployment-and-the-future-of-work/ http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/rise-robots-will-affect-job/future-business/article/1397321 https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/31/y-combinator-announces-basic-income-pilot-experiment-in-oakland/ http://www.geek.com/news/foxconn-has-replaced-60000-workers-in-one-factory-with-robots-1656337
- 91. McCann Tokyo gave their AI director the task of creating the ad for Clorets mints and pitted it against a human creative director. They had a “blind” voting where people didn’t know which ad was created by the AI. The human ad won the competition. However one can’t help but wonder that it won’t be long before an AI can be just as good of a creative director as a human. Source: http://www.adweek.com/agencyspy/mccann-erickson-japan-is-pitting-its-ai-creative-director-against-mitsuru-kuramoto/110616
- 92. And this year we have even heard calls for an AI to run for President in the 2016 US elections!! Didn’t happen, but one day it could… Sources: http://qz.com/612564/ibms-watson-should-run-for-president/ http://www.pcworld.com/article/3031137/forget-trump-and-clinton-ibms-watson-is-running-for-president.html
- 93. But at the current rate of technology advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence, job automation may progress at a faster rate than our ability to create new jobs. We are now witnessing the possible automation of even high-level cognitive jobs. For example: the Institute of the Future created a prototype software “iCEO” to see if they could automate complex tasks by dividing them into individual pieces. They programmed it to oversee the preparation of a large research report for a Fortune 50 client. While typically such a project under the traditional management-employee structure would take several months, iCEO managed to get it done in just a few weeks. Sources: http://venturebeat.com/2016/03/20/robot-ceo-your-next-boss-could-run-on-code/ https://hbr.org/2015/04/heres-how-managers-can-be-replaced-by-software
- 95. What does this mean for human beings? What will we do if there are no jobs? What will it mean for social security and pensions? How will labor policies be shaped to accommodate a robotic workforce? Perhaps governments will have to tax corporations on the labor savings realized in order to provide pensions. Or perhaps governments will need to institute a universal basic income; a concept that was recently put to a vote in Switzerland (and rejected). Closer to home, Y Combinator has announced a pilot experiment in Oakland, CA to pay basic income to a group of people and observe the effects. Without the worry of income and savings, human beings may pursue the next frontier – perhaps they begin colonizing other planets and journey to other solar systems. Or closer to earth, perhaps humans will remain in jobs that require empathy and human touch – such as, caring for the elderly or education. Whatever ends up happening, it is clear that exponential advancements in robot and artificial intelligence technology is going to uproot and upend the concept of employment and result in ripple effects across businesses, governments and the very fabric of human purpose.
- 98. Self-driving cars are a lot more than just a new way of getting around. The impact on the world around us will be completely transformational, and will affect many existing industries that at first blush you wouldn't think of. To start with, self-driving cars will have a significant benefit to the economy. Morgan Stanley estimates an economic impact of $1.3T a year, but it could be more. Self- driving cars will save lives and the cost related to traffic accidents – it’s estimated they will reduce the number of people who die in traffic accidents by 90%. Self-driving cars will also allow us to work while we drive, driving up productivity. Today, US drivers travel 3 trillion miles and spend 75 billion hours in a car every year. And self-driving cars are also better drivers, so huge fuel savings are expected. This is especially important with sustainability becoming an ever more important imperative. But everything has a price, and one of the prices to be paid for self-driving cars is that everyone who drives for a living will be out of a job. In the US that's about 4M drivers, and about $148B in annual wages, truck drivers representing half of that. Did you know that truck driving is the most common jobs in more than 29 states? Stepping back even further, think of all the industries that touch the car markets and how they might be affected. Fewer human truckers on the road means fewer motel stays and rest stop visits, and cheaper trucking could take business away from freight trains or even oil pipelines. Vehicles programmed to obey traffic laws won’t need nearly as much policing, which also means fewer traffic tickets and less revenue for municipalities. The full scale of these economic shifts will be impossible to understand until they’re upon us, but the one thing we can know for sure is that they’ll touch almost every aspect of society. Sources: https://www.atkearney.com/automotive/ideas-insights/featured-article/- /asset_publisher/4rTTGHNzeaaK/content/how-automakers-can-survive-the-self-driving-era/10192 http://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/focus/future-of-mobility/transportation-technology.html http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sam-tracy/autonomous-vehicles-will-_b_7556660.html
- 101. Though the company calls the AeroMobil a “car,” it will need to be certified as an aircraft as well as a road vehicle. Source: http://inhabitat.com/aeromobile-unveils-futuristic-flying-car-plans-to-launch-by-2017/
- 103. Imagine a future where: • There are no traffic accidents • There are no traffic jams, thanks to sensors allowing less space between vehicles and guidance systems with real-time awareness of congestion • Cars can travel a lot faster because we don't have to account for bad driving anymore • Nobody owns a car. We just rent them by the mile. • If we no longer own a car, why do we need homes with garages? House design will change. • We won't need huge parking areas at our offices anymore. Office design will change. • Similarly, we may no longer need big parking garages in cities. City design will change. • Energy demand will drop. • Car designs will change. They will become roving rooms: entertainment rooms, office rooms, bed rooms… • At some point maybe driving even becomes illegal, because human drivers will be like flies in the ointment, and people fight as hard for their car rights as they do today for their gun rights. • This will impact everything we know about life the same way the introduction of the car completely transformed life after horse and carriage. Image Source: https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz/innovation/research-vehicle-f-015- luxury-in-motion/
- 106. At the current rate of technological progress and miniaturization of components it is possible that in the foreseeable future, we may start having devices connected directly to our bodies. These devices will be inseparable from us and could potentially change our physical and cognitive abilities, maybe even our personalities and identities. We are already seeing the development of exoskeletons, bionic eyes, ears and limbs which can all be connected directly to our brain. Today these devices are being used to overcome disabilities, but in the future we may see humans using them to amplify normal abilities. Like a robotic exoskeleton that helps with industrial tasks, particularly within construction and agriculture industries. There are more radical projects aiming to create a direct two-way brain interface that would allow computers to read electrical signals from the brain and transmit back signals the brain could read. This could mean our brain connects directly to the internet, or perhaps several brains connect to each other – creating a so-called inter-brain-net. Scientists from China and the US have already found a way to inject a tiny electronic mesh sensor into the brain that fully integrates with cerebral matter and enables computers to monitor brain activity – it has been called “neural lace” and successfully tested on mice. We also now have technology that effectively allows us to manipulate and edit human DNA, splicing out diseases, and splicing in blue eyes or higher intelligence, perhaps allowing us one day to cure the world of diseases, while at the same time making it possible to change forever what it means to be human. Sources: http://www.investors.com/news/technology/robotic-exoskeletons-stepping-out-science-fiction/ http://www.roboticstrends.com/article/exoskeleton_market_to_reach_1.8b_in_2025/ http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/neural-lace-has-been-invented-organically-connect-your-brain-computer-1506481 http://gizmodo.com/scientists-just-invented-the-neural-lace-1711540938 https://designerbabiesethics.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/the-cons-of-designer-babies/ http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-genetically-modify-an-embryo-for-only-the-second-time-ever http://www.forbes.com/sites/carmendrahl/2016/08/16/the-surprisingly-simple-chemistry-in-duoskin-temporary-tattoos- that-control-your-phone/#6da33c711cd0
- 109. As our understanding of biology at the molecular and cellular levels improves we are seeing genetic engineering becoming possible. Using the CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing tool, scientists in China modified human embryos in the hope of making them HIV-resistant. If trials like these are indeed successful, and the costs of genome sequencing and modification decline, might we see an age of “designer” babies? Made-to-order with the traits that we wish and implanted with bionic devices that enhances their memory or physical strength? Sources: http://nymag.com/thecut/2015/07/lady-scientists-could-make-marvel-comics-real.html http://www.seeker.com/swedish-doc-tries-gene-editing-human-eggs-2013467984.html http://futurism.com/swedish-scientist-begins-editing-human-dna-in-healthy-embryos/
- 111. Imagine a future where: • Humans and technology become one. • Where technology gives us superhuman strength and stamina. Maybe one day we will be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. • Where neural lace gives us the ability to mind-meld with our AI best friend or virtual assistant, or mind-meld with each other, able to communicate at the speed of thought. • Where genetic engineering allows us to eliminate disease. • But allows us to choose the traits and personalities of our children • Where it becomes more and more difficult to answer the question "what does it mean to be human? • Regardless of which direction the marriage of organic and bionic may take, one thing is clear, in the grand scheme of human evolution we are at the cusp of an important tipping point that could reimagine the entire future of life on earth.
- 114. Mass personalization is finally becoming a reality. Businesses have not only developed the capabilities to measure specifically what each individual consumer wants, they are now also in a position to link their processes and resources to provide it. This has been made possible by advances in manufacturing and 3D printing, which enable mass personalization at lower costs and allow manufacturers to radically rethink their supply chains, postponing production to allow individual customization. The merging of offline products with online platforms means consumers can now co-create and truly take part in the manufacturing process. In some instances, offering personalization may require a radical rethink of how the business operates. For example, a business will need to consider how their strategy and operating model will need to adapt, and the use of customer data for personalized marketing and the development of customized products will require a new data governance process and framework that gives consumers control over how their data is used. Sources: https://www.maritzcx.com/blog/its-not-you-its-me-the-quiet-breakup-with-mass-market/ http://marketingland.com/study-70-brands-personalizing-emails-missing-higher-transaction-rates- revenue-73241 http://www.experian.com/assets/marketing-services/white-papers/ccm-email-study-2013.pdf http://researchindustryvoices.com/2015/08/07/are-consumers-breaking-up-with-mass-market/ http://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/consumentenmarkt/articles/made-to-order-the-rise-of-mass- personalization.html http://www.dailydot.com/debug/3d-printed-casts-modern-expensive/ http://www.trafsys.com/trend-report-why-personalized-retail-is-the-future-of-brick-and-mortar-stores/ http://www.cmo.com/features/articles/2015/2/18/mind-blowing-stats-personalization.html#gs.NyAXVuk http://www.designboom.com/design/3d-printed-xyz-shoes-by-earl-stewart/
- 116. Coppell Independent School District (ISD) in Texas is the first school district to use the app to provide deeper levels of personal interactions and learning experiences for its students. Source: http://www.consumerelectronicsnet.com/article/First-IBM-Watson-Education-App-for-iPad-Delivers-Personalized-Learning-for-K-12-Teachers-and- Students-4654543
- 119. The biggest obstacle to mass customization is the fact that most businesses’ supply chains cannot efficiently handle it. The systems of suppliers are mostly optimized and designed for producing prearranged amount of products rather than catering to any unforeseen demand. In addition, supply chains in the current business world are based on the push model whereas the ones associated with mass customization are based on the pull model, which is unimaginably difficult to manage. Such supply-chain problems can only be solved if businesses compromise between mass customization and mass production to create standard products and configure them in a manner that they can be customizable in the future. For majority of the businesses, it is not economically feasible to start the customization process in the start of the supply chain. Personalization will be a reality in the 3D world, particularly in the consumer space, where users will 3D print ear plugs that are customized to their ear drums, or fix broken parts which they would have traditionally replaced by the vendor- empowering every user to be part of the maker community. Even dresses, suits, watches, phone cases, laptop covers et al. will all be personalized so that each unique human being will have a personalized factor attached to it. One question that would arise is if every unique user becomes their own designer then who holds the IP for that so that someone else does not plagiarize the same and 3D print it. Hence, in this heavily personalized futuristic world, it is vital to have a centralized real-time analytical data abstraction platform interconnecting with several touch points in the IoT space, leading to an XaaS service with the hardware being heavily subsidized. So the more products you are able to bundle with the subscription, greater are your chances of getting relevant user data. Whether in the B2B or B2C markets, there will only just be an audience of one. This forces a shift from a mass production mindset to one of mass personalization, using the power of data to understand and serve each customer on their own terms.
- 122. The World Economic Forum forecasts that more than half of children now entering school are expected to work in jobs that don’t currently exist. Moreover, the UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS) estimates that the world will need to recruit 25.8 million teachers to provide every child with primary education by 2030. Educational institutions face a two-fold challenge: delivering quality primary and secondary education to children, and developing higher education curricula to help future employees acquire relevant skills for the job market of the future. The same WEF report shows that as the digital economy transforms the workplace, Social and Emotional Learning (SEL) skills such as collaboration, communication and problem solving will become ever more important as more traditional roles are mechanized. Technology has a role to play in helping students develop SEL skills. In K-12 education, many institutions are experimenting with and adopting “blended learning” in classrooms, combining teacher-led instruction with high-quality digital educational content personalized to fit a student’s needs and abilities. Given the potential for education technology (ed-tech), private investment has been increasing at a steady clip, increasing at a 32% average annual pace, from $1.5 billion in 2011 to $4.5 billion in 2015. Online education, or e-learning, is also changing higher education. Last year, the e-learning market was worth an enormous $166.5 billion and it’s been estimated to grow to $255 billion by 2017. Both K-12 and higher education have also been experimenting with robot-assisted learning. IBM Watson deployed Jill Watson at the Georgia Institute of Technology to help graduate students solve problems with their design projects. MIT’s personal robots group deployed Tega with 38 students aged 3-5 years to serve as a peer learner, interpreting emotional responses of students and creating a personalized motivational strategy to help them learn. Sources: http://www.a2apple.com/free-to-learn/ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3581085/A-robot-teaching-grad-students-5-months-NONE-realized.html https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/03/160314101708.htm
- 124. Source: http://rwandaeye.com/rwanda-aims-to-go-paperless-for-2018-national-exams
- 127. In a future where learning is on-demand and personalized, perhaps schools and universities become less about lectures and classrooms and more about collaboration and makerspaces for students to learn problem solving and teamwork skills. Perhaps learning in schools is complemented and reinforced by a personal robot peer learner for motivation, flattery, revision and counselling. And as workplace automation reduces cognitive load, skills in demand in the future may center more around social and collaborative skills. Gamification as a method to teach these “soft skills” may be a prevalent part of the curriculum from K-12 and into higher education. Education in 2030 or 2040 will redefine paradigms of learning and shift the construct of education from classroom-based to lifelong, anywhere, anytime education given the constant upgrading of skills that will be required as technologies progress and create new realities. Technology is not only changing the education curriculum but it is also changing traditional paradigms of learning. Where once schooling entailed teacher-led classrooms with a generalized approach, now we are seeing the emergence of personalized learning with the help of computing devices embedded with software that can customize content for each student based on their needs and abilities. Where once higher education and vocational training were the domain of colleges and universities, we are now seeing MOOCs enable life-long learning for professionals to upgrade their skills and remain relevant in the age of automation.
- 130. Although online and mobile commerce are poised to become the new status quo, stores still continue to woo and hold a special place in the hearts of customers. According to recent research, retailers that enjoy both online and physical presence have reported an average 22% percent growth in sales, whereas online only have registered only a 13% percent growth. With customers looking at innovative delivery options, online retailers can no longer afford to be just ‘pure play online.’ Even colossal internet players are exploring the option of having offline presence, with Amazon forging partnerships with local establishments to set up Amazon Lockers on their premises that allow customers to pick up or return shipments at their own convenient time, rather than wait for deliveries at home or at the workplace. Likewise, Google Shopping Express offers same day delivery of a shopping basket that comprises online purchases made from multiple local retailers. Unlike online retailers who may have to strive hard for physical store presence, brick-and- mortar retailers don’t have to struggle as much - the latter can double up as fulfillment centers for cross channel orders, allowing customers to purchase online and pick up items from the store. By leveraging tools and technologies that fuel digital channels, stores can provide advanced search optimization and display product information in seconds to the customer. Similarly, retailers can implement sophisticated personal pricing programs by leveraging the GPS feature of the customer’s smart phone. China's community Online to Offline (O2O) market size will increase nearly 15-fold in the next 5 years, with home delivery service as the biggest engine. Sources: http://www.greenlightinsights.com/2016/07/18/more-than-50-percent-of-consumers-likely-to-purchase-from- brands-that-sponsor-virtual-reality-according-to-greenlight-vr/ http://retailnext.net/en/blog/retail-store-of-the-future-infographic/ http://www.psfk.com/2013/11/tim-rodgers-adaptive-storefront-concept.html https://www.rolandberger.com/en/press/Press-Release-Details_6016.html http://www.tcs.com/resources/white_papers/Pages/Dawn-Digidexterous-Stores.aspx http://www.business2community.com/infographics/10-notable-omnichannel-trends-statistics-infographic- 01520137#b74FIVW0KIyhM5EW.97 https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/retail-store-tech-startups-2016/ http://articles.philly.com/2016-07-17/business/74517427_1_school-bus-eyewear-glasses http://www.pymnts.com/assets/Uploads/SecureNet-Merchant-Survey-White-Paper-Final.pdf
- 135. The future of retail lies in combining the physical world with the digital world, i.e. combining the online experience with the offline experience so as to provide a seamless and frictionless user experience. In attempting to do so, IoT is going to be of assistance to retailers and customers worldwide. IoT and Retail will go hand in hand. In the future, physical retail will thrive through the Connected Store model: small-format spaces with little to no inventory in-house and a digital infrastructure that informs and entertains shoppers. It’s about relevant, personalized content and enjoyable brand experiences that leverage genuine connections to form loyal shoppers. From merely being nodes of transactions, stores will transform into a curated spot meant for the creative exchange of ideas with entertainment embedded into the shopping journey. The advent of disruptive technology has just begun. New breakthroughs in neuroscience and nanotechnology will dramatically change the way people shop. Already, there are devices available to read brain waves and synthesize them, which may lead to customers shopping in a store being offered the price they had in mind. This is similar to intuitive bargains or being provided with just the right amount of service expected. Although this appears surreal, it may become a reality in the not-so-distant future. Stores have the potential to become the central distribution center for multi-channel retail, thereby shrinking delivery time, reducing overheads such as warehouse costs, and enabling complete control on inventory. Retailers are turning to Big Data analytics to power their extreme personalization initiatives. However, instead of systems delivering customized messages and content to customers, personalization can be better delivered when put in the hands of an in-store associate. For stores, personalization will mean thinking beyond instant gratification, converting monologue to dialogue, transactions to interactions and customer sales to customer value. By being customer-centric, Digi-dexterous stores can help build a symbiotic relationship between store entities and the new age digital customer. Image Source: http://newatlas.com/frog-future-technology-predictions/15113/
- 138. In 1790, farm jobs accounted for 90% of U.S. jobs, compared to <2% today. While farming jobs have been lost to automation, the global food supply (per capita) has steadily increased. In 2016, it took 63 billion land animals to feed 7 billion humans. It’s a huge business. Land animals occupy one-third of the non-ice landmass, utilize 8% of our water supply and generate 18% of all greenhouse gases. Bioprinting of meat (beef, chicken, pork) has huge advantages for humanity. By bio-printing of meat, we would be able to feed the world with 99% less land, 96% less water, 96% fewer greenhouse gases and 45% less energy. Humanity will increasingly rely on genetically engineered crops (GMO). In 1996 there were 1.7 million hectares of biotech crops in the world; by 2010, the number had jumped to 148 million hectares. This 87-fold increase in hectares makes genetically engineered seeds (GEs) the fastest-adopted crop technology in the history of modern agriculture. In 2016, over 75% of crop yield in the United States was genetically modified. More than a trillion GMO meals have been served, and not a single case of GE-induced illness has turned up. By 2050, the world’s population will grow to more than 9 billion and our appetite for meat will grow along with it. The demand for meat will have doubled between 2000 and 2050. But raising meat takes a great deal of land and water and has a substantial environmental impact. Put simply, there’s no way to produce enough meat for 9 billion people. Yet we can’t ask everyone to become vegetarians. Unless there are big changes within the next 20 years, we can expect to foresee a two-class food system. One class will eat industrialized food produced as cheaply as possible at the expense of its workers and natural resources. The other will enjoy home gardens and locally and sustainably produced food, at greater cost. That’s why we need more options for producing meat without depleting our resources. Some exciting new companies are taking on this challenge. They are creating plant-based alternatives to chicken, ground beef, even eggs, that are produced more sustainably, and taste great. Companies like Beyond Meat and Hampton Creek Foods are experimenting with new ways to use heat and pressure to turn plants into foods that look and taste just like meat and eggs. Sources: http://tellspec.com/en/ http://www.moley.com
- 143. Meat no longer requires the killing of livestock: A startup called Memphis Meats grows meat from small amounts of cells extracted from cows, pigs, and chickens. The company claims its lab-grown meat uses 90% less water and land, and 50% less energy, than real beef. Another startup, Modern Meadow, just raised $40 million to create lab- grown leather; it's also considering an initiative focused on lab-grown meat in the future. Synthetic meats may hit grocery shelves as early as 2021. Ugly fruits and vegetables getting a second chance: Some six billion pounds of fruits and veggies are left unharvested or unsold every year because they're considered too small, fat, or otherwise weird-looking. A startup called Imperfect is trying to salvage the ugly produce by buying it on the cheap from California farmers and delivering it to Oakland and Berkeley subscribers, for about half of what you'd pay for comparable produce at the grocery store. Even Whole Foods got on board with cosmetically-challenged produce this year. The high-end grocer partnered with Imperfect to sell some of its fruit in stores. As conscious food consumption grows, numerous food-related platforms, apps and tools will appear. Some are designed to minimize food waste, such as LeftoverSwap, others inform consumers on GMO content, such as Fooducate. There are also electronic devices like Tellspec that analyzes the chemical composition of food and detects harmful ingredients such as nitrates or potential allergens. Bars and restaurants will use technology to provide customers with data-based fast services or immersive emotional experiences beyond the taste of food and drinks. A handful of restaurants in Asia already uses robotic wait and cooking staff to save on wages. A San Francisco-based chain of smart restaurants Momentum uses a robo- cook that makes 360 deli burgers per hour. The ‘Internet of Things’—app-connected smart devices—will find their places in the kitchen too. Samsung has already presented a Wi-Fi-connected refrigerator; GE has partnered with an outsourcing incubator Quirky to fund the development of a smart jar that informs a user when the milk will go bad. Some start-ups also experiment with the ‘Internet of Food’, creating smart frying pans, such as Pantelligent, or Bluetooth-enabled thermometers to measure the temperature of the cooked food, such as iGrill mini for grilled meat. Food 3D-printers and nanopackaging may revolutionize the way the dishes are cooked and how the ingredients are stored. In 2015, Hershey’s created a chocolate machine CocoJet that ‘printed’ dark, milk or white chocolate. The use of nanopackaging will give a longer shelf life to products without any preservatives, which results in less food waste, healthier nutritional options and lower costs for both manufacturers and consumers.
- 146. Since NASA closed the doors on the Space Shuttle Program in 2011, private companies have taken over the task of sending people, research probes and gear into space. In 2016 for the first time the US government gave permission to a private company, Moon Express, to land on the moon in 2017. In 2012 SpaceX became the first company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station, and there are now more than 800 private space companies. Space tech startups saw $1.8bn in funding in the first half of 2015, with only IoT getting more at $2bn. Helping this surge are significant drops in cost, and advances in technology. 3D printing has made it possible to produce specialized parts and prototypes quickly. Components have become much lighter, smaller and cheaper. Designing and testing of space craft has become faster and less expensive thanks to advanced software and digital tools. Closer to earth, companies like Planet Labs have sent dozens of small spacecrafts into low earth orbit to collect data and high- resolution imaging of the earth. Several other companies are vying to provide internet access to the 4.4bn people who still lack it using low earth orbit satellites. Sources: http://www.startupsmart.com.au/technology/how-3d-printing-can-be-used-in-space-exploration/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/rockets/ http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/02/news/companies/musk-mars-2025/ https://ark-invest.com/research/new-space-market http://venturebeat.com/2016/07/16/vcs-are-getting-serious-about-spacetech/ https://ark-invest.com/research/spacex-and-skybox http://www.space.com/33166-space-station-commercial-3d-printer-first-tool-photos.html http://spaceangelsnetwork.com/2016/01/21/2015-an-epic-year-for-the-space-industry/ http://www.fosterandpartners.com/projects/lunar-habitation/ http://spaceangelsnetwork.com/2016/01/21/2015-an-epic-year-for-the-space-industry/
- 147. Source: http://www.space.com/33632-moon-express-private-lunar-landing-approval.html
- 151. In a world where space is just another destination for humans and businesses, perhaps we will mine asteroids for precious metals and minerals and find water on other planets – we will move from a world of scarcity to one of abundance. Perhaps we will no longer be worried about global warming with the option to migrate to other earth-like planets. Or perhaps we will find a sustainable, unending source of fuel to power our world, putting an end to greenhouse gas emissions. Mars may become a vacation destination and humans may colonize planets in other solar systems. We can never know what is out there until we explore, but one thing is certain, mankind is firmly on its way to making space truly the last frontier. Sources: http://www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/siemens/space-race-20/604/ https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2014/08/27/can-the-private-space-industry-stabilize-a-boom-and-bust-economy/ http://www.denverpost.com/2016/04/15/costs-not-rocketing-as-colorado-firms-embrace-space-boom/
- 153. By the end of the century, the African population will represent 40% of the total population on earth. Is Africa the new China? Africa exemplifies the megatrends we are looking at here: • Rapid urbanization • Changing demographics • Hyper globalization • Accelerating Innovation Sources: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2445615/True-size-Africa-continent- big-China-India-US-Europe-together.html http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/2012/myb3-sum-2012- africa.pdf
- 154. The media has largely colored our perspectives on Africa: government coups & corruption, war torn landscapes with gun-toting war lords, terrorism & kidnapping, arid deserts and famine, make shift class rooms in grass huts, medical crisis (AIDS, ebola, malaria), reliant on foreign aid, deserts and deforestation. But perceptions are shifting. Financial markets are becoming digitized, countries are experiencing high sustained growth rates, abundant natural resources, a growing middle class, African unification, stabilizing democracies, increasing foreign investments, and a burgeoning tech sector. If you take nothing else away from this, presentation…remember that Africa is changing with or without us.
- 155. Not only will the African population represent 40% of the global population by 2100, Africa is expected to surpass China and India in the 2022. And to double its population by 2050. This population growth is driving the rapid urbanization of African cities. No part of the planet is urbanizing faster than sub- Saharan Africa. Africa has more cities larger than 1M than Europe or North America. By 2025, there will be 72 cities with greater than a million people. We described a megacity as having more than 10 million people. By 2025, Africa will have 3 megacities and be among the largest 15 cities in the world. By 2075, Lagos, Nigeria is projected to be the largest city on earth. As these cities ingest these populations, age old infrastructures are being pushed to the breaking point. Sources: https://www.statista.com/chart/2654/africas-population-growth/ http://www.geohive.com/earth/cy_aggmillion2.aspx http://www.geohive.com/earth/pop_urban.aspx http://www.africastrictlybusiness.com/lists/top-20-fastest-growing-african-cities http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/15-biggest-cities-in-africa.html http://www.diasporabusinesscentre.com/?page_id=137 http://www.afdb.org/en/blogs/afdb-championing-inclusive-growth-across-africa/post/urbanization-in- africa-10143/ http://www.intelligentcio.com/africa/2016/09/23/mckinsey-institute-researches-what-lies-ahead-for- africa/
- 156. From 2000-2010, 9 of the top 15 growth economies were in Africa. Driven primarily by a wealth of resources, several large economies had slower growth with the collapse of the commodities markets. In North Africa, Arab Spring had a significant dampening effect. 13 smaller economies have actually increased their growth since 2010. Additional 187 million is contributing to rapid growth in consumption by households and businesses. Productivity in cities is three times as high as in rural areas resulting in a Growing Middle class. By 2060, over 1B Africans (just under 50%) will be middle class. High growth rates, diversifying economies and aging infrastructures is creating a gold rush of sorts. Country leaders are envisioning New Cities to support this growth and attract foreign investments: Eko Atlantic in Nigeria, Konza City in Kenya, Abuja in Nigeria, and Safari City in Tanzania. Given the dynamics in Africa, it is safe to say that rapid urbanization megatrend will be with us for decades to come. If there is any continent that can do what China has done over the last 30 years, it will be Africa in the next 30 years. Sources: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/what-s-the-future-of-economic-growth-in-africa/ http://www.uhy.com/the-worlds-fastest-growing-middle-class/ http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/middle-east-and-africa/whats-driving-africas-growth http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-21158928 http://allafrica.com/stories/201601260141.html http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/20/tech/hope-city-ghana/
- 157. High birth rates (persistence of African big families), Decreasing infant mortality rates (drops in infectious disease) are creating a large youth bubble. For example, in 2030, the number of children under the age of 10 will be larger than the total population in the US. This Youth bubble will translate into the worlds largest working age population. By 2035 the size of the working age population in Africa will exceed the working age populations of China and India, or the Americas and Europe combined. It’s one thing to have a large working age population, but what kind of work will they do? Population demographics exacerbate pressures on social services. Already lagging global standards, systems like health and education will come under increasing pressure. Education for example. By 2030, Africa will have to add 6 million Primary education teachers to meet the needs of the students. This twice the number of teachers in all of US public schools. A growing working age population that remains largely undereducated and underemployed could become a huge social disaster. Sources: http://www.intelligentcio.com/africa/2016/09/23/mckinsey-institute-researches-what-lies-ahead-for- africa/ http://www.uis.unesco.org/Education/Documents/WTD-2015-infographics-final-EN.pdf
- 158. Cell phone adoption in several African countries is approaching the penetration rate of developed nations, and with it internet connectivity. Approximately 99% of internet subscriptions in Africa are via handheld devices. Internet statistics in June of 2016 indicate that there are now over 340mn Africans connected to the internet, more than all of North America. Seeing the potential opportunities, large tech firms are making investments in Africa. GE announced that it would invest up to US$2b to develop facilities and infrastructure, improving supply chain and training workers. IBM now has presence in 24 African countries with research labs and innovation centers in Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. Microsoft has over 700 employees in 4 innovation centers in Tunisia, Uganda, Botswana and Tanzania. Chinese shoe manufacturer Huajian has opened up a $2B factory in Addis Ababa where wages are 5% of their Chinese counterparts, causing some to proclaim that Ethiopia is China’s China - Made in Ethiopia could become the next Made in China. There are now over 300 active tech hubs in Africa, in 93 cities across 42 countries, and venture capital is growing. Successful business models, innovation practices and technologies are finding fertile soil in Africa. Sources: http://www.pewglobal.org/africa-cell-phone-hp/ http://fortune.com/2016/05/26/u-s-tech-giants-flock-to-africa-to-compete-for-digitals-final-frontier/ http://www.bakermckenzie.com/en/insight/publications/2016/03/african-ipos-set-to-double-capital- raised-in-2016/ https://techcrunch.com/2016/04/05/orange-invests-85m-in-africa-internet-group-africas-first-billion- dollar-tech-firm/ http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-africa-attractiveness-survey-june-2015- americas/$FILE/EY-africa-attractiveness-survey-june-2015-americas.pdf
- 159. Sub-Saharan African countries’ infrastructures are the lowest in the world but technology innovation is leapfrogging the lack of infrastructure. Less than 25% of adults have access to financial services, but coupled with the adoption of mobile phones, Africa is seeing extraordinary adoption of mobile payment services, second only to Asia in number of users. In Kenya, nearly 70% of Kenyans regularly use their phones to make payments (as compared to 20% in the US). About 60% of Africans do not have access to a reliable supply of energy and power shortages are forecast to cost the region between 2-4 percent GDP annually. Among other resource wealth, Africa receives 49% of the total solar energy on earth. 70% of rural Africans do not live within 2km of a year-round road, so drones are becoming the new donkeys. This year, Rwanda launched the first nationwide drone delivery service, partnering with California start-up Zipline to make 150 deliveries/day of blood for haemorrhaging during labour and delivery. Rwanda will be home to the world’s first drone port, with drones expected to roll out in three phases: Medical/Health, B2B, and B2C. Technological leapfrogging has the potential to flip the common narrative, allowing emerging economies not to play “catch up” but to be leaders in development. Sources: https://www.statista.com/statistics/298685/mobile-payment-volume-worldwide/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/tobyshapshak/2016/01/28/how-kenyas-m-kopa-brings-prepaid-solar-power-to- rural-africa/#37db0ee870f4 https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/13/a-test-flight-with-zipline-makers-of-humanitarian-delivery-drones/ http://www.businessinsider.com/kenyas-digital-payments-system-is-lapping-bitcoin-many-times-over-2014-6 http://qz.com/749008/african-fintech-isnt-disrupting-the-financial-industry-its-building-it/ http://fortune.com/2015/10/29/mobile-payments-grow-2016/ https://www.good.is/infographics/african-electricity-and-renewable-energy http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-mkopa-solar-in-africa/ http://www.mmdonline.com/features/rwandas-blood-lifeline/
- 160. Despite the continued potential of African economies, policy-makers undoubtedly will need to grapple with significant challenges ahead. Economies based upon oil are subject to global pricing pressures, giving rise to increased political instability and violence. The Global Fragility Scale is a means of comparing countries based upon an aggregate of social, political and economic indicators. Of the 10 worst countries, 6 are African (Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Sudan, Chad, Congo) and out of all 54 African countries 33 are in the bottom 50 globally. But what about the other 20 plus nations? Where are they in relation to India, China, and Brazil on the Fragility Index? 15 African countries higher than India, 12 countries higher than China and 4 countries higher than all three (Botswana, Brunei, Seychelles, Mauritius). While there are reasons to be cautious, we need to be careful not to whitewash all countries based upon the lowest common denominators. Would you avoid investments in India because of its neighbours (Pakistan, or Afghanistan)? Sources: http://www.acleddata.com/visuals/maps/dynamic-maps/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/what-s-the-future-of-economic-growth-in-africa/ http://fsi.fundforpeace.org/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/6-lessons-from-companies-operating-in-war-torn- communities/
- 161. It is often said that familiarity breeds contempt, but when it comes to Africa, it breeds optimism. In 2015, EY conducted a survey. They asked over 500 experts to rate the attractiveness of investing in Africa. Attractiveness (not unlike the inverse of the fragility scale): • Economic resilience • Progress being made on long term developments • Governance, diversification, infrastructure, business enablement, human development Established investors who already have operations in Africa perceive Africa as the most attractive global investment destination, versus the second least. 2/3 believe attractiveness has improved over the past year and 81% believe attractiveness will improve over the next three years, vs less than a 1/3 and 50% respectively for those investors who are not established in Africa. Source: EY’s 2015 Africa attractiveness survey (total respondents: 501) Findings are based on the views of representative panels of international and local opinion leaders and decision-makers. http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-africa-attractiveness-survey-june-2015- americas/$FILE/EY-africa-attractiveness-survey-june-2015-americas.pdf
- 163. • Products and services you create. • How you target your products. • Leverage 3D transformation to impact your supply chain and where you do business. • How you put a company infrastructure in place….regions, people, AI and robots • It’s also about culture • Services we provide to employees is also important
- 164. Additional Resources: • Megatrends 2016 report: http://bit.ly/megatrendspres • Megatrends video: http://bit.ly/megatrends_ss • Megatrends article: http://bit.ly/megatrends_HPij • Megatrends presentation: http://bit.ly/megatrends_pres • Megatrends LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/megatrends-rapid-urbanization-andrew-bolwell?trk=prof-post • HP CTO YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCv707gj2KW7EaDEABI9QRjA Interested in learning more or discussing Megatrends? Let’s connect! http://www.twitter.com/andrewbolwell