Microsoft Presentation
- 1. Business Challenges during and after the crisis Merthan Kaleli E&D Lead, Microsoft Bilgi Üniversitesi . Santralistanbul 22.12.2009
- 2. 2006 and 2007 were the best years for economic growth and corporate sales/earnings growth since 1945 They will surely be repeated again… …but most likely when we are all dead. 2
- 3. Global Crisis . Q4 FY09 • How did the world end up in such a mess? – Mix greed and stupidity with fraud, corruption and inadequate regulations, and you destroy three big engines of demand: confidence, trust and financing • Four critical points to understand how we got here 1. Unsustainable economic super-cycle built on easy money going into reverse – the reversal was a predictable outcome 2. Rebalancing of global economy – another predictable outcome 3. Unregulated and fraudulent financial institutions lending, hiding and reselling debt – a largely unpredictable outcome 4. Usage of bought instruments such as collateral to borrow, lend, fraudulently hide and repackage – largely invisible and therefore a largely unpredictable outcome • Another Great Depression?
- 4. Economical Downturn . Turkey Q4 FY09 • Consumer Confidence • Investor Confidence • Unemployment • Criticizing the government • Deeper recession and slower bounce back • Turkey is vulnerable • No emerging market can recover without a recovery happening first in the US and Western Europe
- 5. Consumer Confidence . Lowest since Jan’04
- 6. Retail Ecosystem . Turkey Q4 FY09 • New Market & Globals • Deep Discounts • Over Stock • Cash is the king! • Goal : Not to lose market share & customers • Prevent further market erosion • Currency & %18 VAT offerings
- 7. Microsoft . Big Picture • The impact of the recession—the decline in revenue for Q4 and for FY09 • Control – Costs, Market Share, Customer Satisfaction • Positioned to make FY10 a great year for MS
- 8. What’s our story? . Microsoft Retail . Turkey • Revise Planning & Forecasting • Seasonal Adjustments – Currency Fix, Lower stock turnover, No new orders, Payment turns, Returns • Revise Spending & Cost Reduction • Marketing – More consumer Ads., Merchandising, Offerings, Assortment & Shelf Space • Focus on top performing stores – Re-Forecast – Channel Breakdown • Benchmarking – Internally & Externally • Focus on Customer Satisfaction
- 9. The World Economy . Economical Climate • Recessionomics – Look at previous downturns, and stay calm • Weighed down – The recession has left a fiscal burden that many countries will struggle to shed • The great stabilisation – The recession was less calamitous than many feared. Its aftermath will be more dangerous than many expect. – America will recover, but too weakly for comfort • Reshaping the post-crisis world – How the world can avoid slipping back into crisis?
- 10. The World Economy . When will demand return? • This is not a typical emerging market crisis where affected markets bounce back very quickly • Past bounce-backs were fast due to good global liquidity and growth outside of the affected markets • Globally, the recession will look like a deep and long U with a slow recovery most likely in the post-crisis era • The restoration of confidence in the developed world should start emerging some time in 2010 (best case late 2009) • However, positive impact on business might not be felt until 2011, especially in emerging markets • Growth as of 2011 onwards will be slower than boom years of 2006 and 2007
- 11. It's not good enough that we do our best; sometimes we have to do what's required. Winston Churchill
- 12. What’s next? . One Microsoft • Invest in the right opportunities and technologies • Drive end user excitement • Embrace the cloud across all of our businesses • Win market share • Focus on employee excellence
- 13. Economic Outlook . 2009 & 2010 GDP Growth Picture Source: EIU April 7, 2009
- 14. WW GDP Growth Forecast . 2007 – 2012 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Consensus Economics, Inc., EIU
- 15. WW IT Spending . 2007 - 2012 WW IT Spending Worldwide GDP Forecast Source: Q2 & Q3 2008 Worldwide Black Books; IDC Downside Scenario Model
- 16. An Economic Unknown . Freeing Up Spend on IT $1-3 Trillion For Bank Bailouts Tax Cuts Smart Grid SMB Incentives Health Care Infrastructure Broadband Auto Manufacturers Green Building
- 17. The Potential Impact of Stimulus Plans . 2009 -2012 WW ICT Spending Growth WW ICT Spending (B) $250 Billion over 4 Years Source: Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book, IDC Estimates
- 19. Poll #4 . IDC Q3 2009 What do your clients feel about the economy? ( 1% ) We have reached bottom ( 51% ) We still have a long way down to go ( 14% ) Things are starting to look up ( 33% ) They are not sure, they ask us
- 20. Poll #5 . IDC Q3 2009 What have you heard from clients in the last quarter about their order rates? Apr 09 Jan 09 Oct 08 ( 4% ) ( 7% ) ( 50% ) Have not talked to them ( 4% ) ( 4% ) ( 17% ) No crisis-related change ( 43% ) ( 38% ) ( 23% ) A minor drop in orders ( 45% ) ( 49% ) ( 10% ) A significant drop in orders ( 5% ) ( 1% ) ( 1% ) An increase in orders
- 21. What’s The New Normal for Microsoft Retail in Turkey?
- 22. What’s The New Normal . 2010 • Be Proactive • Maintain long-term strategy against multinational and local competitors • Focus on Long Term Gain • Focus on Building Market Share • Acquire Channel : Distributors/Partners/Consumers • Retail Execution is the KEY! • The Microsoft Factor • Crisis can provide opportunity! • The world wants you to fail • Preparing for the worst : The Crisis Plan • Scenarios and how to handle • Crisis Communication; PR, Internal/External (Customers & Partners)
- 23. Thank you Contact Information Please send your comments to: merthankaleli@hotmail.com