Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in India
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The document outlines research using the TIMES model to study mitigation strategies for transitioning India's energy system towards net-zero emissions by 2050, comparing a current policy scenario resulting in over 100 Gt of CO2 emissions to lower emission scenarios enabled by increasing renewable energy, nuclear power, and carbon capture while reducing costs and maintaining supply. The results indicate pathways to reduce 2050 emissions to under 1 Gt through accelerated electrification, decarbonizing electricity and other sectors, and cumulative emissions by over 50% compared to current policies.
Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in India
- 1. Mitigation strategies for transitioning towards ‘net-zero’ energy systems in India – an application of the TIMES model Omkar S Patange1 Amit Garg1 1Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA) ETSAP Winter Workshop, Oslo November 30, 2021
- 2. Outline 1. Background and Motivation 2. Research Objectives 3. Methods and Data 4. Results and Discussions 5. Conclusion and Policy Implications 2
- 3. 3 Source: Third BUR to UNFCCC, MoEFCC, 2021 Energy System Emissions in India LULUCF: Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry • Paris Agreement and goals for net-zero energy systems • Energy sector responsible for 93% of total CO2 and 75% of GHG emissions • Coal dependent, fast growing economy • Low per capita energy consumption and emissions per capita • NDCs reflect the need to balance climate goals and developmental priorities
- 4. Research objectives 4 • To study and quantify the impacts of NDCs and other current policies on the energy supply and demands, sectoral technology-fuel mix and emissions trajectory in the near (2030) to medium term (2050) • To understand the drivers of CO2 emissions in the current policy scenario (CPS) and the share of difficult to decarbonize sectors in the CPS • To develop a net-zero emissions scenario for the energy systems (NZES) and compare the CPS and NZES in terms of emission trajectories and their drivers, cumulative emissions, technology-fuel mix and mitigation strategies to inform the policy discussions on the long-term strategies (LTS) as part of the Paris agreement
- 5. Methods and Data 5 Modelling framework for the national energy system Source: Adapted from Loulou et al (2016) . TIMES-India developed using TIMES-Starter platform (DecisionWare , 2018)
- 6. Methods and Data 6 TIMES-India Reference Energy System (RES)
- 7. Results and Discussion - CPS 7 Energy System CO2 emissions Notes: Analysis based on Kaya Identity: CO2 = POP * (GDP/POP) * (FEC/GDP) * (CO2/FEC) POP: Population; GDP: Gross Domestic Product (USD); FEC: Final Energy Consumption (PJ); CO2: CO2 emissions (Giga grams Gg) • Emissions go up from 1.9 Gt-CO2 in 2015 to about 3.8-4 Gt-CO2 in 2050 • Cumulative emissions between 2015 to 2050 are around 105- 110 GtCO2
- 8. Transitioning from CPS to NZES 8 • Net-Zero Emissions Scenario (NZES) ensemble • Policy alternatives to decarbonize the difficult to decarbonize sectors • Electricity Sector variants (E1-E4) - NZES-E1: Maximum growth assumed for solar and wind with battery storage, All remaining coal and gas retrofitted with CCUS - NZES-E2: Coal and gas plants shares assumed to remain high but retrofitted with CCUS - NZES-E3: Next generation nuclear shares increase to reduce the share of solar and wind in E1 - NZES-E4: Same as E1 but all remaining coal capacity replaced with next generation nuclear
- 9. Results and Discussion 9 Key transformations in NZES as compared to the CPS
- 10. Conclusion and policy implications 10 • In NZES, CO2 emissions in 2050 could be reduced to around 600-800 Mt- CO2 without the deployment of negative emission technologies • NZES also reduces the cumulative emissions by over 50 per cent as compared to the CPS; reduces dependence on CCUS and NETs in the latter half of the century • Per capita electricity consumption improves by around 13% and the emission intensity of electricity production goes below 10 gCO2/kWh in 2050 (NZES-E4) with little impact on the cost of electricity as compared to the CPS • The incremental investments in power sector to realize the NZES could be met with an average carbon price of USD 10-20/tCO2 between 2015-50 • Policy implications for NZES ▪ Affordable financing alternative for pilot stage technologies (nuclear, CCUS, new battery chemistries, advanced biofuels) ▪ Early investments in alternate fuels and carbon management technologies ▪ Consultations with wider set of stakeholders to address the socio- cultural and political concerns