Modelling the future of cassava production in Asia
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CIAT has developed several models to study cassava cultivation in Asia: 1. EcoCrop suitability models from 2008-present using niche-based approaches 2. A process-based cassava model in DSSAT from 2012-present 3. Suitability models for cassava pests like greenmite and mealybug from 2011-2015 4. CIAT is working towards a mechanistic simulation of crop-pest-management interactions using their process-based cassava model and ecological niche modeling of pests.
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Harvest(product(wt((kg([dm]/ha
Days(after(start(of(simulation((#)(Chart21
C1*E1+MCol622;Control measured+C1*E1+MCol622;Control
C1*E2+MCol622;Reduced+rai measured+C1*E2+MCol622;Reduced+rai](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ciat-cassava-modelling-160526172949/85/Modelling-the-future-of-cassava-production-in-Asia-12-320.jpg)
Modelling the future of cassava production in Asia
- 4. CIAT)crop)and)pest)modelling) activities 1. Suitability+modelling+(20086present)+using+niche6based+ models+(EcoCrop). 2. Process6based+modelling+(20126present):+develop+and+ maintain+cassava+model+in+DSSAT. 3. Suitability+modelling+of+pests:+greenmite,+mealybug,+ whitefly+(201162015) 4. Towards+mechanistic+simulation+of+crop6pest6 management+interactions
- 6. Current)suitability Growing(season((days) 240 Killing&temperature&(°C) 0 Minimum&absolute& temperature&(°C) 15.0 Minimum&optimum& temperature&(°C) 22.0 Maximum&optimum& temperature&(°C) 32.0 Maximum&absolute& temperature&(°C) 45.0 Minimum&absolute& rainfall&(mm) 300 Minimum&optimum& rainfall&(mm) 800 Maximum&optimum& rainfall&(mm) 2200 Maximum&absolute& rainfall&(mm) 2800 Ceballos+et+al.+(2011)
- 8. Why)a)processBbased)approach? ! Cassava+does+not+have+a+robust model+(Legg+et+al.,+2014) ! Short'list'of+models+describing+the+basic+processes+of+growth+ and+development+(Cock+et+al.+1979;+Manrique 1992;+Matthews+&+Hunt+1994;+Gray+2000,2003;+Mithra+et+ al.2013;+Gabriel+et+al.+2014;+Gutierrez+et+al.+1988). ! Models+answer+what%if?%%questions+! Ex6ante+evaluation+of+ technologies+and/or+environmental+conditions+expensive+or+ impossible+to+evaluate+(Cock+&+Moreno,+2013).+
- 10. A)processBbased)cassava)simulation)model ! From+phenological+phases+ to+an+indeterminate+crop ! Node+cohorts+(leaf+and+ stem+growth,+leaf+life) ! Different+Tbase for+leaf+ development+and+ branching ! Spillover+model Leaf'appearance Branching Leaf'size Moreno+et+al.+(unpublished)
- 12. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Harvest(product(wt((kg([dm]/ha Days(after(start(of(simulation((#)(Chart21 C1*E1+MCol622;Control measured+C1*E1+MCol622;Control C1*E2+MCol622;Reduced+rai measured+C1*E2+MCol622;Reduced+rai
- 21. • Group+spatio6temporal+variations+in+pest+dynamics+and+ yield+impacts+to+prioritise interventions+and+breeding+ efforts+(cf.+Target+Population+of+Environments) • Develop+management+recommendations+(e.g.+best+ planting+periods,+N+application)+to+reduce+pest+damage…+ and+estimate+tradeoffs. • Early+warning+systems+–for+timely+release+of+parasitoids+ (e.g.+A.#lopezi),+or+other+type+of+control. • Understand+crop+&+associated+pest+expansion+patterns What)can)we)do)with)this)type)of) approach?