Module 2
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The document discusses the key concepts of Dow Theory, which was developed over 100 years ago but still provides a valid framework for analyzing stock market movements. Dow Theory identifies three types of market movements - primary trends (bull/bear markets lasting months-years), secondary movements (corrections within primary bull trends or reaction rallies within primary bear trends lasting weeks-months), and daily fluctuations (lasting hours-days). It also discusses some of the theory's underlying assumptions, such as that the primary trend cannot be manipulated and that all known information is reflected in stock prices.
Module 2
- 2. Dow Theory • The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today's volatile and technology-driven markets, the basic components of Dow theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamilton and articulated by Robert Rhea, the Dow theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also market philosophy. Many of the ideas and comments put forth by Dow and Hamilton became axioms of Wall Street. While there are those who may think that it is different this time, a read through The Dow Theory will attest that the stock market behaves the same today as it did almost 100 years ago. • The Dow theory presented below has been taken from Robert Rhea's book, The Dow Theory. Although Dow theory is attributed to Charles Dow, it is William Hamilton's writings that serve as the corner stone for this book and the development of the theory. Also, it should be noted that most of the theory was developed with the Dow Jones Rail and Industrial averages in mind. Even though many concepts can be applied to individual stocks, please keep in mind that these are broad concepts and best applied to stocks as a group or index. When possible, we have also attempted to link some of the realities of today's market with the Dow theory as explained by Dow, Hamilton and Rhea.
- 3. Background • Charles Dow developed the Dow theory from his analysis of market price action in the late 19th century. Until his death in 1902, Dow was part owner as well as editor of The Wall Street Journal. Although he never wrote a book on the subject, he did write some editorials that reflected his views on speculation and the role of the rail and industrial averages. • Even though Charles Dow is credited with developing the Dow theory, it was S.A. Nelson and William Hamilton who later refined the theory into what it is today. Nelson wrote The ABC of Stock Speculation and was the first to actually use the term "Dow theory." Hamilton further refined the theory through a series of articles in The Wall Street Journal from 1902 to 1929. Hamilton also wrote The Stock Market Barometer in 1922, which sought to explain the theory in detail. • In 1932, Robert Rhea further refined the analysis of Dow and Hamilton in The Dow Theory. Rhea read, studied and deciphered some 252 editorials through which Dow (1900-1902) and Hamilton (1902-1929) conveyed their thoughts on the market. Rhea also referred to Hamilton's The Stock Market Barometer. The Dow Theory presents the Dow theory as a set of assumptions and theorems.
- 4. Assumptions • Manipulation The first assumption is: The manipulation of the primary trend is not possible. When large amounts of money are at stake, the temptation to manipulate is bound to be present. Hamilton did not argue against the possibility that speculators, specialists or anyone else involved in the markets could manipulate the prices. He qualified his assumption by asserting that it was not possible to manipulate the primary trend. Intraday, day-to-day and possibly even secondary movements could be prone to manipulation. These short movements, from a few hours to a few weeks, could be subject to manipulation by large institutions, speculators, breaking news or rumors. Today, Hamilton would likely add message boards and day-traders to this list. Hamilton went on to say that individual shares could be manipulated. Examples of manipulation usually end the same way: the security runs up and then falls back and continues the primary trend. Examples include: • PairGain Technology rose sharply due to a hoax posted on a fake Bloomberg site. However, once the hoax was revealed, the stock immediately fell back and returned to its primary trend. • Books-A-Million rose from 3 to 47 after announcing an improved web site. Three weeks later, the stock settled around 10 and drifted lower from there. • In 1979/80, there was an attempt to manipulate the price of silver by the Hunt brothers. Silver skyrocketed to over 50$ per ounce, only to come back down to earth and resume its long bear market after the plot to corner the market was unveiled.
- 5. Averages Discount Everything • The market reflects all available information. Everything there is to know is already reflected in the markets through the price. Prices represent the sum total of all the hopes, fears and expectations of all participants. Interest rate movements, earnings expectations, revenue projections, presidential elections, product initiatives and all else are already priced into the market. The unexpected will occur, but usually this will affect the short-term trend. The primary trend will remain unaffected.
- 6. Market Movements • Dow and Hamilton identified three types of price movements for the Dow Jones Industrial and Rail averages: primary movements, secondary movements and daily fluctuations. Primary moves last from a few months to many years and represent the broad underlying trend of the market. Secondary (or reaction) movements last from a few weeks to a few months and move counter to the primary trend. Daily fluctuations can move with or against the primary trend and last from a few hours to a few days, but usually not more than a week.
- 7. Primary Movement • Primary movements represent the broad underlying trend of the market and can last from a few months to many years. These movements are typically referred to as bull and bear markets. Once the primary trend has been identified, it will remain in effect until proved otherwise. (We will address the methods for identifying the primary trend later in this article.) Hamilton believed that the length and the duration of the trend were largely indeterminable. Hamilton did study the averages and came up with some general guidelines for length and duration, but warned against attempting to apply these as rules for forecasting.
- 8. Secondary Movements • Secondary movements run counter to the primary trend and are reactionary in nature. In a bull market a secondary move is considered a correction. In a bear market, secondary moves are sometimes called reaction rallies. Earlier in this article, a chart of Coca-Cola was used to illustrate reaction rallies (or secondary movements) within the confines of a primary bear trend. Below is a chart illustrating a correction within the confines of a primary bull trend.
- 9. References • Stockchats.com http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=c hart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory