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Open source:
                  myths and realities



                                                           Carlo Daffara
                                       European Working Group on Libre Software
                                                              Conecta Research

Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Myth #1: open source is not
                    widely used.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
How much Open Source is inside the average
  codebase?




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
● Black Duck analysis of large code projects
  (avg. 700MB of code): 22% is OSS, up to
  80% of new development is avoided through
  OSS
● On     average,     30%     of    implemented
  functionalities is based on reused OSS code
  (Sojer M., Henkel J. “Code reuse in Open
  Source Software Development”)
● “sampling continues to find that between 30%

  and 70% of code submitted is .. in the form of
  OSS components and commercial libraries”
  (Veracode, “State of Software Security Report
  volume 3”, 2011)
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
35% of code created
               in the last 5 years is Open Source




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
What value does OSS reuse brings in?
(Abts, Boehm, Bailey Clark “Empirical
observations on COTS software integration
effort based on the initial COCOTS calibration
database”)




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Total OSS source adoption value: 41B€




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Myth #2: open source is not
             as good as proprietar y sw.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
“Figures suppor t the idea that FOSS
solu tions are more innovative than
proprietar y ones: indeed, in all the three
dimensions, experts’ evaluations are higher for
FOSS than for proprietary software. … FOSS
software not only show different levels of
innovativity, but, as far as, new to the world
products are concerned, they are also shaped
by different innovation processes: radical
innovation in the FOSS vs. incremental
innovation in proprietary field.” (Rossi,
Lorenzi, “Innovativeness of Free/Open Source
solutions”)
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
"The growing rate, or the number of functions
added, was greater in the open source projects
than in the closed source projects. This
indicates that the OSS approach may be able
to provide more features over time than by
using the closed source approach. (Paulson,
Succi, Eberlein “An Empirical Study of Open
Source and Closed Source Software
Products”)




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
(Mohagheghi, Conradi, Killi and Schwarz “An
Empirical Study of Software Reuse vs. Defect-
Density and Stability”)
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
"Findings indicate that community Open Source
applications show a slower growth of
maintenance effort over time.” (Capra,
Francalanci, Merlo “The Economics of
Community Open Source Software Projects:
An Empirical Analysis of Maintenance
Effort”)

“The fourth law of software evolution,
implying constant incremental effort, might be
violated (Koch “Evolution of Open Source
Software     Systems    –   A     Large-Scale
Investigation”)
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Deshpande, Riehle “The Total Growth of Open Source”
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Source: Dirk Riehle, “The open source big bang”


Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Myth #3: external contribu tions are
                 negligible.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
“While IBM initially contributed software that was
valued at 40M$, external contributors to the project
created software representing a value of roughly
1.7B$ over the examined period.” (Spaeth,
Stuermer, von Krogh “Enabling knowledge creation
through outsiders: towards a push model of open
innovation”)




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Myth #4: code is the only wor thwile
           potential contribu tion.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
“[non-code]      outside    contributions   are
signicant. Open Cascade estimates that they
represent about 20 % of the value of the
software. Matra Datavision had to inject
approximately 2M€ per year to continue to
develop its tools. In 2000, the company limited
the costs to 1.2 million.” (Jullien, Clement-
Fontaine, Dalle “New Economic Models, New
Software Industry Economy”)




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
The economic value of Open Source Software
Myth #5: Open Source limits the
            exploitation possibilities.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
“[..] the aim of free software is not to enable a
healthy business on software but rather to
make it even impossible to make any
income on software as a commercial
produc t.”      (Thomas      Lutz,     Microsoft
representative at Tunis WSIS)

“Do open source where there aren't
commercial alternatives ” (Tony Hey, MS
VP        Research,   Microsoft       at
TransferSummit2011)


Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
“Open-source     software    is    deliberately
developed outside of market mechanisms... the
nonmarket coordination mechanism fails to
contribute to the creation of value in
development, as opposed to the commercial
software market. [It] does not generate profit,
income, jobs or taxes … In the end, the
developed software cannot be used to
generate profit.” (Kooths S., Lagenfurth M.
“Open Source-Software: An Economic
Assessment” University of Muenster, Muenster
Institute for Computational Economics)
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
“[Open Source] ... suppresses quality
competition between OS firms and restricts
their output much as an agreement to suppress
competition on quality would. .. We find that
the first-best solution in our model is to tax
OS firms and grant tax breaks to
[proprietar y sw] firms .” (Engelhardt,
Maurer, 2010 Goldman School of Public
Policy)




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Total value of OSS reuse per year: 116B€




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
With proprietary software, 86% of SW
    spending goes outside of Europe-and reduces
    local company margins
              Ecosystem Revenues compared with MS revenues by partner type
            Product-         Services-                                                    Retail Logistics
                                                                Logistics-Oriented
            Oriented         Oriented       Value-Added Partner                         Partner (e.g., Large
Microsoft                                                       Partner (e.g., Large
          Partner (e.g.,   Partner (e.g.,        (e.g., VAR)                             Retail Electronics
                                                                Account Reseller)
            ISV, IHV)       SI, Hoster)                                                        Store)
   $1          $4.09          $2.44              $2.30                $2.70                    $2.93
    1           24%           40.9%              43.5%                 37%                     34%
Source: Partner Opportunity in the Microsoft Ecosystem, IDC 2011; analysis by Daffara




   Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Revenue per employee rating
    (FLOSS firms vs. Industry average)
    Computer Equipment                           182%
    Software consultancy and supply              427%
    Services (excl. software cons. and supply)   211%
    Manufacturing (excl. computer equip.)        136%
    Other                                        204%
    ALL:                                         221%
    Source: MERIT




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
OSS Vendor Business model    Open Core
     Vendor example          Zimbra
Number of covered products   single or few


Economic advantage for the   Reduction of R&D, reduced maintenance costs, visibility,
         vendor              increased dissemination, external ecosystem of add-ons,
                             self-segmentation of the market for the proprietary add-ons
Economic advantage for the   The adopter may opt for the open source edition if it is
        adopter              deemed sufficient; for the proprietary part, reduction in cost
                             may give better price/quality ratio
Potential disadvantages of   Difficult to estimate the right balance between open and
        the model            closed parts, external groups may create substitutes for
                             the proprietary parts
      Sale condition         Need for the proprietary additions or need of support
   Freeriding protection     license choice, segmentation on features

    External ecosystem       potentially large, depending on the balance
                             open/proprietary

     (more examples in the FP7 primer...)
 Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Myth #6: I need to create my own
                   license.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Rank                              License                     %
      1       GNU General Public License (GPL) 2.0                 47.6%
      2       GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 2.1          9.1%
      3       Artistic License (Perl)                               9.1%
      4       BSD License 2.0                                       6.2%
      5       GNU General Public License (GPL) 3.0                  6.2%
      6       MIT License                                           4.6%
      7       Apache License 2.0                                    4.3%
      8       Code Project Open 1.02 License                        2.9%
      9       Microsoft Public License (Ms-PL)                      1.7%
      10      Mozilla Public License (MPL) 1.1                      1.2%
      11      Common Public License (CPL)                           0.5%
      12      Eclipse Public License (EPL)                          0.5%
      13      GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 3.0          0.5%
      14      zlib/libpng License                                   0.4%
      15      Academic Free License                                 0.4%
      16      Common Development and Distribution License (CDDL)    0.3%
      17      Open Software License (OSL)                           0.3%
      18      Mozilla Public License (MPL) 1.0                      0.3%
      19      PHP License Version 3.0                               0.2%
      20      Ruby License                                          0.2%



Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Myth #7: Open Source is
                    a silver bullet.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Myth #8: It is easy to create a
                   community.




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
From: “Sustainability of Free/Libre Open Source Projects: A Longitudinal Study”
    Journal of the Association for Information Systems November 2010




Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
“The software developed in the project is
released under the GPL license; however, in
order to obtain the login and password
necessary to access the forge site, the
interested parties need to send a signed
document that confirm that the software will
be used for research purpose only, that any
public criticism is explicitly forbidden, and that
any use of the software itself as a basis of a
published article need to be first agreed with
the project coordinator.”


Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
Thanks!

        Carlo Daffara
     cdaffara@conecta.it
http://carlodaffara.conecta.it

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Mythrealities

  • 1. Open source: myths and realities Carlo Daffara European Working Group on Libre Software Conecta Research Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 2. Myth #1: open source is not widely used. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 3. How much Open Source is inside the average codebase? Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 4. ● Black Duck analysis of large code projects (avg. 700MB of code): 22% is OSS, up to 80% of new development is avoided through OSS ● On average, 30% of implemented functionalities is based on reused OSS code (Sojer M., Henkel J. “Code reuse in Open Source Software Development”) ● “sampling continues to find that between 30% and 70% of code submitted is .. in the form of OSS components and commercial libraries” (Veracode, “State of Software Security Report volume 3”, 2011) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 5. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 6. 35% of code created in the last 5 years is Open Source Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 7. What value does OSS reuse brings in? (Abts, Boehm, Bailey Clark “Empirical observations on COTS software integration effort based on the initial COCOTS calibration database”) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 8. Total OSS source adoption value: 41B€ Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 9. Myth #2: open source is not as good as proprietar y sw. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 10. “Figures suppor t the idea that FOSS solu tions are more innovative than proprietar y ones: indeed, in all the three dimensions, experts’ evaluations are higher for FOSS than for proprietary software. … FOSS software not only show different levels of innovativity, but, as far as, new to the world products are concerned, they are also shaped by different innovation processes: radical innovation in the FOSS vs. incremental innovation in proprietary field.” (Rossi, Lorenzi, “Innovativeness of Free/Open Source solutions”) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 11. "The growing rate, or the number of functions added, was greater in the open source projects than in the closed source projects. This indicates that the OSS approach may be able to provide more features over time than by using the closed source approach. (Paulson, Succi, Eberlein “An Empirical Study of Open Source and Closed Source Software Products”) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 12. (Mohagheghi, Conradi, Killi and Schwarz “An Empirical Study of Software Reuse vs. Defect- Density and Stability”) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 13. "Findings indicate that community Open Source applications show a slower growth of maintenance effort over time.” (Capra, Francalanci, Merlo “The Economics of Community Open Source Software Projects: An Empirical Analysis of Maintenance Effort”) “The fourth law of software evolution, implying constant incremental effort, might be violated (Koch “Evolution of Open Source Software Systems – A Large-Scale Investigation”) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 14. Deshpande, Riehle “The Total Growth of Open Source” Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 15. Source: Dirk Riehle, “The open source big bang” Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 16. Myth #3: external contribu tions are negligible. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 17. “While IBM initially contributed software that was valued at 40M$, external contributors to the project created software representing a value of roughly 1.7B$ over the examined period.” (Spaeth, Stuermer, von Krogh “Enabling knowledge creation through outsiders: towards a push model of open innovation”) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 18. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 19. Myth #4: code is the only wor thwile potential contribu tion. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 20. “[non-code] outside contributions are signicant. Open Cascade estimates that they represent about 20 % of the value of the software. Matra Datavision had to inject approximately 2M€ per year to continue to develop its tools. In 2000, the company limited the costs to 1.2 million.” (Jullien, Clement- Fontaine, Dalle “New Economic Models, New Software Industry Economy”) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 21. The economic value of Open Source Software
  • 22. Myth #5: Open Source limits the exploitation possibilities. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 23. “[..] the aim of free software is not to enable a healthy business on software but rather to make it even impossible to make any income on software as a commercial produc t.” (Thomas Lutz, Microsoft representative at Tunis WSIS) “Do open source where there aren't commercial alternatives ” (Tony Hey, MS VP Research, Microsoft at TransferSummit2011) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 24. “Open-source software is deliberately developed outside of market mechanisms... the nonmarket coordination mechanism fails to contribute to the creation of value in development, as opposed to the commercial software market. [It] does not generate profit, income, jobs or taxes … In the end, the developed software cannot be used to generate profit.” (Kooths S., Lagenfurth M. “Open Source-Software: An Economic Assessment” University of Muenster, Muenster Institute for Computational Economics) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 25. “[Open Source] ... suppresses quality competition between OS firms and restricts their output much as an agreement to suppress competition on quality would. .. We find that the first-best solution in our model is to tax OS firms and grant tax breaks to [proprietar y sw] firms .” (Engelhardt, Maurer, 2010 Goldman School of Public Policy) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 26. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 27. Total value of OSS reuse per year: 116B€ Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 28. With proprietary software, 86% of SW spending goes outside of Europe-and reduces local company margins Ecosystem Revenues compared with MS revenues by partner type Product- Services- Retail Logistics Logistics-Oriented Oriented Oriented Value-Added Partner Partner (e.g., Large Microsoft Partner (e.g., Large Partner (e.g., Partner (e.g., (e.g., VAR) Retail Electronics Account Reseller) ISV, IHV) SI, Hoster) Store) $1 $4.09 $2.44 $2.30 $2.70 $2.93 1 24% 40.9% 43.5% 37% 34% Source: Partner Opportunity in the Microsoft Ecosystem, IDC 2011; analysis by Daffara Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 29. Revenue per employee rating (FLOSS firms vs. Industry average) Computer Equipment 182% Software consultancy and supply 427% Services (excl. software cons. and supply) 211% Manufacturing (excl. computer equip.) 136% Other 204% ALL: 221% Source: MERIT Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 30. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 31. OSS Vendor Business model Open Core Vendor example Zimbra Number of covered products single or few Economic advantage for the Reduction of R&D, reduced maintenance costs, visibility, vendor increased dissemination, external ecosystem of add-ons, self-segmentation of the market for the proprietary add-ons Economic advantage for the The adopter may opt for the open source edition if it is adopter deemed sufficient; for the proprietary part, reduction in cost may give better price/quality ratio Potential disadvantages of Difficult to estimate the right balance between open and the model closed parts, external groups may create substitutes for the proprietary parts Sale condition Need for the proprietary additions or need of support Freeriding protection license choice, segmentation on features External ecosystem potentially large, depending on the balance open/proprietary (more examples in the FP7 primer...) Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 32. Myth #6: I need to create my own license. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 33. Rank License % 1 GNU General Public License (GPL) 2.0 47.6% 2 GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 2.1 9.1% 3 Artistic License (Perl) 9.1% 4 BSD License 2.0 6.2% 5 GNU General Public License (GPL) 3.0 6.2% 6 MIT License 4.6% 7 Apache License 2.0 4.3% 8 Code Project Open 1.02 License 2.9% 9 Microsoft Public License (Ms-PL) 1.7% 10 Mozilla Public License (MPL) 1.1 1.2% 11 Common Public License (CPL) 0.5% 12 Eclipse Public License (EPL) 0.5% 13 GNU Lesser General Public License (LGPL) 3.0 0.5% 14 zlib/libpng License 0.4% 15 Academic Free License 0.4% 16 Common Development and Distribution License (CDDL) 0.3% 17 Open Software License (OSL) 0.3% 18 Mozilla Public License (MPL) 1.0 0.3% 19 PHP License Version 3.0 0.2% 20 Ruby License 0.2% Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 34. Myth #7: Open Source is a silver bullet. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 35. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 36. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 37. Myth #8: It is easy to create a community. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 38. From: “Sustainability of Free/Libre Open Source Projects: A Longitudinal Study” Journal of the Association for Information Systems November 2010 Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 39. Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 40. “The software developed in the project is released under the GPL license; however, in order to obtain the login and password necessary to access the forge site, the interested parties need to send a signed document that confirm that the software will be used for research purpose only, that any public criticism is explicitly forbidden, and that any use of the software itself as a basis of a published article need to be first agreed with the project coordinator.” Internet of Services 2011 – FLOSS WG
  • 41. Thanks! Carlo Daffara cdaffara@conecta.it http://carlodaffara.conecta.it