New Classical Analysis of
Output and Employment
The effects of an increase in aggregate
                              demand
                                                   SRAS1
                                                (expected price level = P1)
Price level




                                                (a) Adaptive
              P2                        b
                                                expectations
              P1
                              a


                                                      AD2

                                                AD1
               O              Q1   Q2
                              National output
The effects of an increase in aggregate
                              demand SRAS                  2
                                                (expected price level = P3 )
                                                         SRAS1
                                                      (expected price level = P1)
                                  c
Price level




              P3
                                                     (a) Adaptive
              P2                           b
                                                     expectations
              P1
                              a


                                                            AD2

                                                     AD1
               O              Q1      Q2
                              National output
The effects of an increase in aggregate
                              demand SRAS
                              LRAS
                                                           2
                                                (expected price level = P3 )
                                                         SRAS1
                                                      (expected price level = P1)
                                  c
Price level




              P3
                                                     (a) Adaptive
              P2                      b
                                                     expectations
              P1
                              a


                                                            AD2

                                                     AD1
               O              Qn Q2
                              National output
The effects of an increase in aggregate
                              demand
                                                   SRAS1
                                                (expected price level = P1)
Price level




                                                (b) Rational
                                                expectations
              P1
                               a


                                                      AD2

                                                AD1
               O              Q1
                              National output
The effects of an increase in aggregate
                              demand SRAS                  2
                                                (expected price level = P3 )
                                                         SRAS1
                                                      (expected price level = P1)
                               c
Price level




              P3
                                                     (b) Rational
                                                     expectations
              P1
                               a


                                                            AD2

                                                     AD1
               O              Q1
                              National output
The effects of an increase in aggregate
                               demand SRAS
                           LRAS = SRAS
                                     actual
                                                           2
                                                (expected price level = P3 )
                                                         SRAS1
                                                      (expected price level = P1)
                               c
Price level




              P3
                                                     (b) Rational
                                                     expectations
              P1
                               a


                                                            AD2

                                                     AD1
               O              Qn
                              National output
When expectations
    New classical analysis
            are wrong:
how an under-prediction of inflation
            could cause
    an increase in employment
Effects in the labour market of an underprediction of inflation
                                                                      ASL1 ((W / P ) = W / P )
                                                                                e




                                                                       ASL2 ((W / P )e > W / P )
Real wage rate (W / P)




                                                                       Underprediction
                                                                         of inflation




                                                                       ADL
                         O                   Q1     Q2

                                                  Number of workers
New classical analysis
   When expectations
       are wrong:
 how a rise in AD could cause
an increase in national output
How a rise in aggregate demand could cause a rise in national output


                                        LRAS
                                                             SRAS2
                                                             (expected price level = P2 )

                                                               SRAS1
                                               b
Price level




                                                             (expected price level = P1)
              P3
              P2                                                 Actual rise in
                                                               aggregate demand
              P1
                                          a


                                                                          AD3
                                                                     AD2
                                                               AD1
              O                           Qn Q3
                                          National output
New classical analysis
  When expectations
      are wrong:
how a rise in AD could cause
  a fall in national output
How a rise in aggregate demand could cause a fall in national output

                                                                 SRAS2
                                           LRAS                (expected price level = P2 )

                                                                      SRAS1
                                                                    (expected price level = P1)
              P2
Price level




                                          c
              P3
                                                                    Actual rise in
                                                                  aggregate demand
              P1
                                              a

                                                                         AD2
                                                                       AD3
                                                                  AD1
              O                          Q3 Qn
                                            National output
New classical analysis

    How the short-run
Phillips curve varies with
      the accuracy of
inflationary expectations
New classical version of short-run
                         Phillips curves
                        .   . .   . .   .
                          e     e     e
                       P <P P =P P >P
Inflation (%)




                O
                           Unemployment (%)

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New classical analysis of

  • 1. New Classical Analysis of Output and Employment
  • 2. The effects of an increase in aggregate demand SRAS1 (expected price level = P1) Price level (a) Adaptive P2 b expectations P1 a AD2 AD1 O Q1 Q2 National output
  • 3. The effects of an increase in aggregate demand SRAS 2 (expected price level = P3 ) SRAS1 (expected price level = P1) c Price level P3 (a) Adaptive P2 b expectations P1 a AD2 AD1 O Q1 Q2 National output
  • 4. The effects of an increase in aggregate demand SRAS LRAS 2 (expected price level = P3 ) SRAS1 (expected price level = P1) c Price level P3 (a) Adaptive P2 b expectations P1 a AD2 AD1 O Qn Q2 National output
  • 5. The effects of an increase in aggregate demand SRAS1 (expected price level = P1) Price level (b) Rational expectations P1 a AD2 AD1 O Q1 National output
  • 6. The effects of an increase in aggregate demand SRAS 2 (expected price level = P3 ) SRAS1 (expected price level = P1) c Price level P3 (b) Rational expectations P1 a AD2 AD1 O Q1 National output
  • 7. The effects of an increase in aggregate demand SRAS LRAS = SRAS actual 2 (expected price level = P3 ) SRAS1 (expected price level = P1) c Price level P3 (b) Rational expectations P1 a AD2 AD1 O Qn National output
  • 8. When expectations New classical analysis are wrong: how an under-prediction of inflation could cause an increase in employment
  • 9. Effects in the labour market of an underprediction of inflation ASL1 ((W / P ) = W / P ) e ASL2 ((W / P )e > W / P ) Real wage rate (W / P) Underprediction of inflation ADL O Q1 Q2 Number of workers
  • 10. New classical analysis When expectations are wrong: how a rise in AD could cause an increase in national output
  • 11. How a rise in aggregate demand could cause a rise in national output LRAS SRAS2 (expected price level = P2 ) SRAS1 b Price level (expected price level = P1) P3 P2 Actual rise in aggregate demand P1 a AD3 AD2 AD1 O Qn Q3 National output
  • 12. New classical analysis When expectations are wrong: how a rise in AD could cause a fall in national output
  • 13. How a rise in aggregate demand could cause a fall in national output SRAS2 LRAS (expected price level = P2 ) SRAS1 (expected price level = P1) P2 Price level c P3 Actual rise in aggregate demand P1 a AD2 AD3 AD1 O Q3 Qn National output
  • 14. New classical analysis How the short-run Phillips curve varies with the accuracy of inflationary expectations
  • 15. New classical version of short-run Phillips curves . . . . . . e e e P <P P =P P >P Inflation (%) O Unemployment (%)