New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex Environments
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- The document discusses new models and technologies for integrated risk management in complex environments. It provides context on why the Workers Compensation Authority is involved in risk conferences and the objectives of INAIL beyond just compensation. - It then discusses how concepts of risk and safety have evolved from a traditional safety-based approach to an integrated risk management approach in regulations and standards. Examples are provided of major accidents that revealed weaknesses in the prior safety-based approach. - The presentation emphasizes that science and increasing knowledge can help make communities and workplaces safer by enabling more informed risk-based decisions, knowledge sharing, and learning from experiences including accidents and near misses. Ongoing research is important to address uncertainties.
New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex Environments
- 1. Paolo Bragatto INAIL – Ricerca, Certificazione e Verifica Centro Ricerca Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex Environments Monteporzio Catone (RM) ITALIA 1/14 1
- 2. • Why the Workers Compensation Authority in this conference? • INAIL is not just compensation but a global protection system for all workers in Italy. INAIL objectives include also the rehabilitation of work accident victims, the reduction of accident at works, ….. • Research Certification Area is in charge of • research on prevention and safety at work, • control and verification of work equipment, installations and establishments. • The Safety of major industrial plants and infrastructures, involve both workers (employed, contractors) and local communities, as well as land and environment. Safety issues cannot be “cut with a knife”! Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica A very short introduction 2/14 2
- 3. Summary • How and why the concepts of risks (and safety) are changing • May Science and technologies make our communities safer? • From Fundamentals to Practice (a few examples from INAIL research area) • Suggestions for Practitioners and Regulators Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica • Safety and Risk in modern Industries 3/14 3
- 4. • SAFETY or RISK? • Since the birth of industry, SAFETY was a keyword (e.g. the first code for pressure equipment safe design and operation in UK in 1854). • Typical command & control approach – safety based. For each sector codes and rules addressing design, construction and service phases. Public Inspector bodies to enforce regulations. • Stregth of C&C approach: effective, complete, objective • Weakness of C&C approach: rigid, separate, inadequate both for complex systems (with interferences) and for very dynamic (fast growing) industries • Operators’ responsibility: compliance with codes, rules and regulations Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Fundamentals: Safety 4/14 4
- 5. • In industries, the word RISK entered just with nuclear power plant, 1950/60. • A few severe chemical accidents (Seveso, Flixborough) in the 70s demonstrated the C&C Safety Based approach inadequate for major accident hazard. • Integrated approach. Equipment & plant safety with human & organizational system, land use planning, … • Operators must manage risks in an integrated and dynamic way, following essential safety requirements, adopting management systems Flixborough (UK) Giugno 1974 Beek (NL) Novembre 1975 Seveso (I) Luglio 1976 Bhopal (India) Dicembre 1984 Basel (CH) Novembre 1986 Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica From Safety to Risk 5/14 5
- 6. • The risk management approach in EU Directives for Major Accident Control • Seveso I 1985, Seveso II 1996, • Seveso II Amendement 2003, Seveso III 2012. • Seveso Keystones: Mandatory Safety Management System Audit program organized by Competent Authorities Shared Knowledge About Accident Integration with Land Use Planning Baia Mare (RO) Jan 2000 Enschede (NL) May 2000 Toulouse (F) Sep. 2001 Buncefield (UK) Dec. 2005 Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Risk Management in Major Accident Hazard 6/14 6
- 7. • Risk Assessment shyly entered Occupational Safety legislation with EU Directive 89/391, implemented in D.Lgs 626/94 on occupational Safety & Health • In Italy the “revolution” with D.Lgs 81/08, which stressed “risk assessment documents”. • Furthermore Safety Management Systems are highly promoted. (premium discounts, incentives, responsibility exemption..) No more deaths at work! Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Risk Management in Occupational Safety 7/14 7
- 8. Traditional Risk definition ISO GUIDE 51 Safety ed. 1999 Corollaries: • Risk is a number • Phenomenon has to be well known, so both severity and likelihood may be evaluated in a quantitative way. • Thresholds for Risk acceptability • Inherent safety is an Utopia • Risk Separation (e.g. Occupational, Major Accident, Natural) Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Risk = probability of occurrence of harm x severity of that harm 8/14 8
- 9. Societal Risk in a Nutshell FN Curves 10-3 10-4 10-7 10-6 Risk Map 10-8 Equipment Reliability 10-9 Weather Database 10-5 Frequencies Impact Scenarios Expected Accident Math. Models Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Popolation Database 1 10 100 1000 Number of Fatalities 9/14 9
- 10. Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica In the 80’s Pioneer studies on Area Risks, aimed to address decisions about new installations, based on Societal Risk and FN curves approach. After these studies major European Industrial areas has been well managed until today. Ravenna IT 1987 Rijmond NL 1980 Canvey Island UK 1978 Risk Based Approach: Success Stories 10/14 10
- 11. Safety (Occupational, Industrial, Transport) and Security may be definitely separate? Inherent Safety, why not? 9/11/2001 Concequences of financial actions are known? Just Probability to measure Uncertainty ? Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Epochal Disasters 9/17/2011 11/14 11
- 12. Thailand Nov. 2011 Flooded Automotive District Spain Sept. 2013 Santiago High Speed Train USA April 2010 Deepwater Offshore Disaster Russia February 2013 Cheliabinsk Meteorite Disaster Japan Heartquacke +Tsunami + Nuclear April 2011 Italy Viareggio LPG Train Accident July 2009 Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Very recent Disasters 12/14 12
- 13. Jan. 2012 Tresana Gas pipiline May 2013 Genoa Jolly Nero Cargo Ship Tragedy Jan. 2012 Costa Concordia Disaster July 2013 Pescara Fireworks Factory Disaster May 2012 Emilia Harthquacke Feb. 2012 Italy Big Snow Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Very recent Disasters 13/14 13
- 14. KK – UU model Safety • Awareness - Conscious Competence • Unknown Known Risks Aleatory Uncertainties • Lack of information - Awareness • Known Unknown Risks Epistemic Uncertainties • Lack of Knowledge • Unknown Unknown Risks • Lack of Awareness The Black Swan Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica • Known Known Risks 14/14 14
- 15. Risk = effect of uncertainty on the achievement of objective ISO GUIDE 73 Risk Management Vocabulary 2009 ISO 31000 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines 2009 ISO 31010 Risk Management Risk Assesment Technicques 2009 Coming soon … Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica ISO 31000 Risk definition ISO 31014 Risk Management Guidance for implementation of ISO 31000 15/14 15
- 16. Risk Management at Industrial Plant objectives Satisfy users & shareholders Safe working ambient Positive perception by local community uncertainties Unplanned Interruption Injury at work Major Accident matter Equipment Reliability Occupational Safety Industrial Safety Activity Legislation Equipment control Equipment verification D.Lgs 81/2008 Safety Report + Safety Audits Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Risk = effect of uncertainty on the achievement of objective Dir. 96/82/CE 16/14 16
- 17. D.Lgs 81/2008 Dir. 96/82/CE Integrated Equipment control Management Equipment verification Art 71 D.Lgs 81/08 DM 11/4/11 (INAIL, ASL, + soggetti abilitati ) System Safety Report + Safety Audits Authorization Safety Report Periodical Audit Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Plant Integrated Management System (VVF,ARPA,INAIL) 17/14 17
- 18. Systems safety Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Land & Environment Citizen Safety & Health mngmnt Occupational Safety & Health Health Structure – Patient Safety Mobility Power & Process Industry Infrastructures Grid Goods Transport Trade & Logistic Internet - Cyber Space Complex Risk management security 18/14 18
- 19. Does Science make us safer? Genoa 2013 Science and Technology make our communities safer? Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Genoa 2009 & 2012 Science and Technology make the work Safer? 19/14 19
- 20. Science and Risk More Information less Risk (if Knowledgeis complete) More Knowledge less Risk (if Knowledge is lacking) Shannon 1949 Uncertainty > Information Entropy De Finetti 1970 Probability does not esiste If you make work (aquire information/ make inspection) you reduce risk Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica 2009 Risk Definiton Uncertainty – Risk If you make research (increase Knowledge) you reduce risk 20/14 20
- 21. Knowledge Based Inspections Equipment Critical Structures Degradation Mechanism TIME Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Risk based Inspections = Inspection Risk / Entropy Risk Based Inspection Information Degradation 21/14 21
- 22. Precautionary principle adopted in Europe in situation of scientific uncertainty. “fundamentalist” application of preacutionary principle could stop all innovations in Europe, thus it is essential investigate safety at very early stages, before industrial applications Research essential for susbstainable economic growth in Europe include: Safety of Nanomaterials and Nanotechnologies Safety of Green technologies Safety of Advanced biotechnologies Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Risk Research vs Preacution Principle 22/14 22
- 23. Disappearing Knowledge Experience underestimated, is forgotten Knowledge, hidden in official documents, is covered by dust, then dies and it’s lost forever Revive continuously Safety Knowledge to prevent accident Involve experienced Personnel in developing Safety System Learn from experience, including accident, near misses, and positive histories. Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica The relentless effect of Entropy Law: 23/14 23
- 24. Information management Experience Knowledge Management Safety - Secuity Management System Information management Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Sharing Information or Knowledge 24/14 24
- 25. Operator contracts a work to a maintenance company. Contractor worker who must be provided with the full equipment The Operator must provide safety info’s to the contractors (permit to work) The Operator safety manager knows the environment related hazards, including major accidents (goggles, face-shield, masks, gloves, boots, earmuffs, safety helmets… Contractor firms’ safety manager knows well the task related hazard (e.g. falls from height, cuts) Protective equipment to be selected in wide range according to the CEN standard Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Example from INAIL research “Safe contractors 25/14 25 2.2
- 26. “Ontology” an artificial intelligence method has been used for organizing knowledge and inferring decisions about contractors safety Knowledge Ontology Onto DPI: appropriate PPE choice for maintenance within a large industrial park, DUVRI art.26 81/08 Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Sharing Knowledge to make Decisions 26/14 26
- 27. Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Example from INAIL research “NearMisses” 27/14 27
- 28. Sharing & Reviving Knowledge Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Public Domain Knowledge 28/14 28
- 29. Knowledge Based Risk management Settore Ricerca, Certificazione a Verifica Thanks for your attention ! 29/14 29