NFL Game schedule optimization
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This document outlines the scheduling rules for the National Football League (NFL) and presents an optimization of the NFL game schedule to maximize commercial value. The NFL earned $11.09 billion in revenue in 2014. The scheduling of games is crucial to maximize commercial value. The project uses a step-by-step optimization approach that considers attendance ratios to develop a schedule that achieves the greatest commercial value for the NFL.
NFL Game schedule optimization
- 1. NFL Game Schedule Optimization Instructor: Alkiviadis Vazacopoulos Lingfeng Sha, Liye Pan, Renyu Zhang, Xianqiao Li, Xinyi Xu Business Intelligence & Analytics INTRODUCTION As the most valuable league in the US, NFL got the revenue for 11.09 billion dollar in 2014. To maximize the commercial value of NFL, the game scheduling is a crucial point. Based on the step-by-step optimization with the consideration of the attendance ratio, this project achieve the largest commercial value of NFL. NFL Scheduling Rules: •Every team plays six games against the other three teams in its division, facing off twice per season — once at home and once on the road. •Every team plays one game against each of the four teams from a division within its conference — two games at home and two on the road. •Every team plays one game against each of the four teams from a division in the other conference once per season — two games at home and two on the road. •Every team plays its remaining two games against teams from the two remaining divisions in its own conference — one game at home and the other on the road. NFL Scheduling Rules: •Every team plays six games against the other three teams in its division, facing off twice per season — once at home and once on the road. •Every team plays one game against each of the four teams from a division within its conference — two games at home and two on the road. •Every team plays one game against each of the four teams from a division in the other conference once per season — two games at home and two on the road. •Every team plays its remaining two games against teams from the two remaining divisions in its own conference — one game at home and the other on the road. NE BUF MIA NYJ PIT CIN BAL CLE IND HOU JAX TEN DEN KC SD OAK DAL PHI NYG WSH GB DET MIN CHI CAR NO ATL TB SEA ARZ SF STL On the Road AFC WEST NFC EAST NFC NORTH NFC SOUTH NFC WESTAFC EAST AFC NORTH AFC SOUTH NE 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BUF 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIA 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYJ 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AFC EAST A t H o m e PIT 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIN 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAL 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLE 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0AFC N ORTH A t H o m e IND 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 HOU 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 TEN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 AFC SOUTH A t H o m e DEN 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 KC 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 SD 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 OAK 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 AFC W EST A t H o m e DAL 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 PHI 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYG 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 WSH 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 NFC EAST A t H o m e GB 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DET 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 MIN 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 CHI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 NFC NORTH A t H o m e CAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 NO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 ATL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 TB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 A t H o m e NFC SOUTH SEA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 ARZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 SF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 A t H o m e NFC W EST NE BUF MIA NYJ PIT CIN BAL CLE IND HOU JAX TEN DEN KC SD OAK DAL PHI NYG WSH GB DET MIN CHI CAR NO ATL TB SEA ARZ SF STL On the Road AFC WEST NFC EAST NFC NORTH NFC SOUTH NFC WESTAFC EAST AFC NORTH AFC SOUTH NE 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BUF 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MIA 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYJ 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AFC EAST A t H o m e PIT 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CIN 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAL 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CLE 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0AFC N ORTH A t H o m e IND 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 HOU 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 TEN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 AFC SOUTH A t H o m e DEN 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 KC 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 SD 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 OAK 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 AFC W EST A t H o m e DAL 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 PHI 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 NYG 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 WSH 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 NFC EAST A t H o m e GB 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DET 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 MIN 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 CHI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 NFC NORTH A t H o m e CAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 NO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 ATL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 TB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 A t H o m e NFC SOUTH SEA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 ARZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 SF 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 A t H o m e NFC W EST Week NE BUF MIA NYJ PIT CIN BAL CLE IND HOU JAX TEN DEN KC SD OAK DAL PHI NYG WSH 1 BUF @NE SD BAL @CIN PIT @NYJ OAK $HOU IND NO $TB $SF $ARZ $MIA $CLE WSH $ATL $PHI 2 @BUF NE @BAL PIT @NYJ @CLE MIA CIN KC DEN OAK $HOU $IND $JAX $NYG GB DAL TB 3 MIA @NYJ @NE BUF CIN @PIT CLE @BAL NO JAX $HOU DEN $TEN $SD KC DET $CHI $MIN GB 4 @NYJ MIA @BUF NE IND BAL @CIN GB $PIT TEN KC $HOU SD $JAX $DEN $STL SEA $NYG PHI MIN 5 NYJ @MIA BUF @NE DET CLE JAX @CIN HOU $IND $BAL SD KC $DEN $TEN SEA PHI $DAL SF $STL 6 @MIA NYJ NE @BUF CHI KC DET - OAK $JAX HOU CAR ARZ $CIN $SEA $IND $WSH NYG $PHI DAL 7 CIN PIT @NYJ MIA @BUF @NE @CLE BAL JAX SD $IND ATL $KC DEN $HOU SF CHI MIN $GB $DET Match-Ups (partial Timetable) Week NE BUF MIA NYJ PIT CIN BAL CLE IND HOU JAX TEN DEN KC SD OAK DAL PHI NYG WSH 1 BUF @NE SD BAL @CIN PIT @NYJ OAK $HOU IND NO $TB $SF $ARZ $MIA $CLE WSH $ATL $PHI 2 @BUF NE @BAL PIT @NYJ @CLE MIA CIN KC DEN OAK $HOU $IND $JAX $NYG GB DAL TB 3 MIA @NYJ @NE BUF CIN @PIT CLE @BAL NO JAX $HOU DEN $TEN $SD KC DET $CHI $MIN GB 4 @NYJ MIA @BUF NE IND BAL @CIN GB $PIT TEN KC $HOU SD $JAX $DEN $STL SEA $NYG PHI MIN 5 NYJ @MIA BUF @NE DET CLE JAX @CIN HOU $IND $BAL SD KC $DEN $TEN SEA PHI $DAL SF $STL 6 @MIA NYJ NE @BUF CHI KC DET - OAK $JAX HOU CAR ARZ $CIN $SEA $IND $WSH NYG $PHI DAL 7 CIN PIT @NYJ MIA @BUF @NE @CLE BAL JAX SD $IND ATL $KC DEN $HOU SF CHI MIN $GB $DET Match-Ups (partial Timetable) OBJECTIVES •Utilizing heuristic algorithm to simulate NFL game schedule for 2015-16 season. •Compare our schedule to the real NFL schedule to determine how much our schedule increases audience attendances and TV ratings. HOLIDAY NON-HOLIDAY Intercept -2.15871 -4.8305 Number of All Star players in one match 0.56311 0.38629 Home Team Avearge Winning Percentage 11.03572 10.44454 Away Team Avearge Winning Percentage 2.88904 7.53753 Team Revenue 0.00555 0.01031 **SAS Regression Analysis Output Week NE BUF MIA NYJ PIT CIN BAL CLE IND HOU JAX TEN DEN 1 BUF @NE SD TEN @BAL GB PIT OAK @HOU IND @DEN @NYJ JAX 2 @BUF NE @BAL PIT @NYJ @CLE MIA CIN TEN @KC OAK @IND @SD 3 - @NYJ WSH BUF CIN @PIT CHI GB @ATL JAX @HOU DEN @TEN 4 @NYJ @WSH @DAL NE @CIN PIT @CLE BAL - TEN KC @HOU SD 5 NYJ @MIA BUF @NE DET CLE - @CIN HOU @IND @CAR @TB KC 6 @NYG MIA @BUF @CIN @CLE NYJ DET PIT @DEN @JAX HOU ATL IND 7 @PIT @CLE NYJ @MIA NE BAL @CIN BUF @CAR SD @TEN JAX @KC Optimized ScheduleHeuristic Algorithm Diagram Conclusions: •TV ratings increase by 10.79 •Attendance increases by 33,222