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Why do we care about Antarctic climate?

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Andrew Russell

The document provides an overview of the historical significance and climate of Antarctica, emphasizing its extreme conditions and the importance of the Antarctic climate for global sea levels and ice sheets. It outlines key historical events related to the exploration of Antarctica, including the discovery of the continent, significant expeditions, and the establishment of research stations. The document also highlights the discovery of the ozone hole and the implications of Antarctic research for understanding climate change.

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Why do we care about Antarctic climate? Dr Andrew Russell Brunel University [email_address] @dr_andy_russell @Antarctic_news
Antarctic talk Background (map, trivia, history) The Antarctic ozone “hole” Antarctic temperature and sea ice trends Ice cores Why I care about Antarctic climate i.e. my own research Why you should care about Antarctic climate i.e. ice sheets and sea level rise
Image: BAS
Antarctic trivia Coldest continent – lowest recorded temperature is -89°C Driest – strictly a desert (South Pole receives <10 cm per year, on average) Windiest – the katabatic wind Highest – ice up to 5km thick, average 1.6km across continent Home to 90% of world’s ice Population: 1000-5000
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses Wikipedia – image of 17 th Century Chinese map
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer)
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time)
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec)
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition Wikipedia
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose)
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS 2002: Larsen B ice shelf collapses
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS 2002: Larsen B ice shelf collapses
Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS 2002: Larsen B ice shelf collapses 2004: Dome C ice core data (~800,000 years) published
What’s black and white and red all over?
Robert McCabe
The Antarctic “ozone hole”
Ozone depletion and “hole” CFCl 3 + hν -> CFCl 2 + Cl Cl + O 3 -> ClO + O 2 ClO + O 3 -> Cl + 2 O 2 + chemical reactions on polar stratospheric clouds in the cold Antarctic stratosphere =
Antarctic temperature trends
Is Antarctica warming, cooling or do we not really know?
Is Antarctica warming, cooling or do we not really know? Yes
Turner et al. (2005) “Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years” International Journal of Climatology 25 , 279-294.
Image: United States Historical Climatology Network
USA: 1000 observing stations, some go back to late 1800s Antarctica: 55 stations, very few go back to before 1957 Image: NASA
Can we be clever?
Steig et al. (2009) “Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year” Nature 457 , 459-462.
O’Donnell et al. (2011). Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig et al. (2009) Antarctic temperature reconstruction Journal of Climate , in press
Antarctic sea ice NSIDC Zhang (2004)
Antarctic sea ice Surface temperature increases Upper ocean warms Ice growth decreases Decrease in salt rejection from new ice Salinity of the upper ocean falls Lower salinity and warmer water Lower water density in the upper ocean Fresher, less dense upper water Increased stratification of ocean layers Weaker convective overturning Less ocean heat is transported upwards Decrease in ice melting from ocean heat Increase in net ice production Sea ice increases skepticalscience.com
Antarctic ice cores
Bubbles and gases * V BAS
What period do ice cores cover?
Petit et al. (1999)
Tilt Eccentricity Precession Wikipedia IPCC
EPICA (2004) Nature
Phew! Wikipedia
But CO2 lags temperature in these records so how does this explain the warming?
Idea “borrowed” from Richard Alley. An analogy.. Initial credit card debt of £1000 Pay off £5 per month 20% APR interest Can an initial forcing be amplified by some other mechanism?
Idea “borrowed” from Richard Alley.
Not well understood but most likely some interplay of ocean processes like: ocean circulation ocean temperature/salinity marine biological activity ocean-sediment interactions seawater carbonate chemistry air-sea exchange
My work on Antarctic weather and climate
 
Changes in the Southern Annular Mode IPCC (2007) IPCC (2007)
The Southern Annular Mode http://www.niwa.co.nz NIWA
The Southern Annular Mode http://www.niwa.co.nz
Negative SAM index
Positive SAM index
Changes in the Southern Annular Mode Gillett and Thompson (2003) Science Thompson and Solomon (2002) Science IPCC (2007) Marshall (2003)
 
Russell et al. (2008) ASL
Russell & McGregor (2010) Climatic Change Russell et al. (2004) Tellus A
 
 
 
 
 
 
Russell et al. (2006) GRL
 
http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/animation.html
Southern Annular Mode BAS
Why you should be a bit concerned about Antarctic climate
IPCC (2007) Bindschadler et al. (1998) EoS “ Ice sheet models indicate that this would be offset by tens of percent by increased ice discharge, but still give a negative contribution to sea level, of –0.8 m by 3000 in one simulation with Antarctic warming of about 4.5°C ” Antarctic ice sheet
Rignot and Thomas (2002)
Peter Boyer Under the Antarctic ice sheet
Oppenheimer (1998) Nature Under the Antarctic ice sheet
Shepherd et al. (2001) Science Vaughan et al. (2006) GRL Pine Island Glacier
&quot;Parts of the Antarctic ice sheet that rest on bedrock below sea level have begun to discharge ice fast enough to make a significant contribution to sea level rise. Understanding the reason for this change is urgent in order to be able to predict how much ice may ultimately be discharged and over what timescale. Current computer models do not include the effect of liquid water on ice sheet sliding and flow, and so provide only conservative estimates of future behaviour.&quot; Chris Rapley, former director of BAS
84m sea level rise! Benfield Hazard Research Centre. This plot is silly. Worse case scenario - complete WAIS collapse - would result in 4-6m of sea level rise.
Why you should be very interested in Antarctic climate
Ted Scambos
Manchester Science Festival 22-30 October 2011

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Why do we care about Antarctic climate?

  • 1. Why do we care about Antarctic climate? Dr Andrew Russell Brunel University [email_address] @dr_andy_russell @Antarctic_news
  • 2. Antarctic talk Background (map, trivia, history) The Antarctic ozone “hole” Antarctic temperature and sea ice trends Ice cores Why I care about Antarctic climate i.e. my own research Why you should care about Antarctic climate i.e. ice sheets and sea level rise
  • 4. Antarctic trivia Coldest continent – lowest recorded temperature is -89°C Driest – strictly a desert (South Pole receives <10 cm per year, on average) Windiest – the katabatic wind Highest – ice up to 5km thick, average 1.6km across continent Home to 90% of world’s ice Population: 1000-5000
  • 5. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana
  • 6. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses
  • 7. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses Wikipedia – image of 17 th Century Chinese map
  • 8. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice
  • 9. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer)
  • 10. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land
  • 11. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island
  • 12. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time)
  • 13. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec)
  • 14. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole
  • 15. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition
  • 16. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition Wikipedia
  • 17. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
  • 18. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
  • 19. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
  • 20. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded
  • 21. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science
  • 22. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose)
  • 23. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS
  • 24. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS 2002: Larsen B ice shelf collapses
  • 25. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS 2002: Larsen B ice shelf collapses
  • 26. Antarctic history 25 million years ago: Antarctica formed from the gradual break up of Gondwana 1st Century AD: Ptolemy suggested the idea to preserve the symmetry of known landmasses 1773: Cook came within 75 miles of Antarctica but retreated in the face of ice 1820: 1st confirmed sighting of Antarctica by the Russian expedition of von Bellingshausen and Lazarev (sighted twice more in 1820 by Bransfield and Palmer) 1839: US expedition from Australia discovers Wilkes Land 1841: James Clark Ross passed through the Ross Sea and discovered Ross Island 1909: Mawson, David and Mackay (from Sir Ernest Shackleton's Nimrod Expedition) claimed to have found the South Magnetic Pole (72°S 155°E at that time) 1911: Roald Amundsen became the first to reach the geographic South Pole (14 Dec) 1912: Scott reaches the pole 1914: Shackleton's Endurance expedition 1956: Halley Research Station and Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station founded 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year (IGY), suggested by leading scientists (including S. Fred Singer) in 1950, gave rise to year of Antarctic science 1959: Signing of the Antarctic Treaty (e.g. Article 1 – The area to be used for peaceful purposes only; military activity, such as weapons testing, is prohibited but military personnel and equipment may be used for scientific research or any other peaceful purpose) 1985: Discovery of the Antarctic &quot;ozone hole&quot; by BAS 2002: Larsen B ice shelf collapses 2004: Dome C ice core data (~800,000 years) published
  • 27. What’s black and white and red all over?
  • 29. The Antarctic “ozone hole”
  • 30. Ozone depletion and “hole” CFCl 3 + hν -> CFCl 2 + Cl Cl + O 3 -> ClO + O 2 ClO + O 3 -> Cl + 2 O 2 + chemical reactions on polar stratospheric clouds in the cold Antarctic stratosphere =
  • 32. Is Antarctica warming, cooling or do we not really know?
  • 33. Is Antarctica warming, cooling or do we not really know? Yes
  • 34. Turner et al. (2005) “Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years” International Journal of Climatology 25 , 279-294.
  • 35. Image: United States Historical Climatology Network
  • 36. USA: 1000 observing stations, some go back to late 1800s Antarctica: 55 stations, very few go back to before 1957 Image: NASA
  • 37. Can we be clever?
  • 38. Steig et al. (2009) “Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year” Nature 457 , 459-462.
  • 39. O’Donnell et al. (2011). Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig et al. (2009) Antarctic temperature reconstruction Journal of Climate , in press
  • 40. Antarctic sea ice NSIDC Zhang (2004)
  • 41. Antarctic sea ice Surface temperature increases Upper ocean warms Ice growth decreases Decrease in salt rejection from new ice Salinity of the upper ocean falls Lower salinity and warmer water Lower water density in the upper ocean Fresher, less dense upper water Increased stratification of ocean layers Weaker convective overturning Less ocean heat is transported upwards Decrease in ice melting from ocean heat Increase in net ice production Sea ice increases skepticalscience.com
  • 43. Bubbles and gases * V BAS
  • 44. What period do ice cores cover?
  • 45. Petit et al. (1999)
  • 49. But CO2 lags temperature in these records so how does this explain the warming?
  • 50. Idea “borrowed” from Richard Alley. An analogy.. Initial credit card debt of £1000 Pay off £5 per month 20% APR interest Can an initial forcing be amplified by some other mechanism?
  • 51. Idea “borrowed” from Richard Alley.
  • 52. Not well understood but most likely some interplay of ocean processes like: ocean circulation ocean temperature/salinity marine biological activity ocean-sediment interactions seawater carbonate chemistry air-sea exchange
  • 53. My work on Antarctic weather and climate
  • 54.  
  • 55. Changes in the Southern Annular Mode IPCC (2007) IPCC (2007)
  • 56. The Southern Annular Mode http://www.niwa.co.nz NIWA
  • 57. The Southern Annular Mode http://www.niwa.co.nz
  • 60. Changes in the Southern Annular Mode Gillett and Thompson (2003) Science Thompson and Solomon (2002) Science IPCC (2007) Marshall (2003)
  • 61.  
  • 62. Russell et al. (2008) ASL
  • 63. Russell & McGregor (2010) Climatic Change Russell et al. (2004) Tellus A
  • 64.  
  • 65.  
  • 66.  
  • 67.  
  • 68.  
  • 69.  
  • 70. Russell et al. (2006) GRL
  • 71.  
  • 74. Why you should be a bit concerned about Antarctic climate
  • 75. IPCC (2007) Bindschadler et al. (1998) EoS “ Ice sheet models indicate that this would be offset by tens of percent by increased ice discharge, but still give a negative contribution to sea level, of –0.8 m by 3000 in one simulation with Antarctic warming of about 4.5°C ” Antarctic ice sheet
  • 77. Peter Boyer Under the Antarctic ice sheet
  • 78. Oppenheimer (1998) Nature Under the Antarctic ice sheet
  • 79. Shepherd et al. (2001) Science Vaughan et al. (2006) GRL Pine Island Glacier
  • 80. &quot;Parts of the Antarctic ice sheet that rest on bedrock below sea level have begun to discharge ice fast enough to make a significant contribution to sea level rise. Understanding the reason for this change is urgent in order to be able to predict how much ice may ultimately be discharged and over what timescale. Current computer models do not include the effect of liquid water on ice sheet sliding and flow, and so provide only conservative estimates of future behaviour.&quot; Chris Rapley, former director of BAS
  • 81. 84m sea level rise! Benfield Hazard Research Centre. This plot is silly. Worse case scenario - complete WAIS collapse - would result in 4-6m of sea level rise.
  • 82. Why you should be very interested in Antarctic climate
  • 84. Manchester Science Festival 22-30 October 2011