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Status and trends in Jamaica Bay:
Building a Baywide assessment
SCIENCE+
RESILIENCE
INSTITUTE
JAMAICA BAY, NYC
SCIENC
RESILIEN
INSTITU
JAMAICA BAY,
Latest study on Water Quality
LateststudyonEcosystems
Latest study on Flooding
Latest study on Communities
SCIENCE+
RESILIENCE
INSTITUTE
JAMAICA BAY, NYC
SCIENC
RESILIEN
INSTITU
JAMAICA BAY,
Flooding
Ecosystems
Water Quality
Communities
Integrated
Assessment
Integrated Analysis and Planning Project
Demonstrate value of building integrated
analytical tools and interactive approach
to long-term planning under uncertainty
Extensive stakeholder input throughout !
Primary goals and metrics
Improve habitat and
ecosystem function
Reduce flood risk
Improve water
quality
Goal Metric(s)
• Flood exposure (e.g., count of structures flooded)
• Inundation area
• Acreage and extent of designated habitats by
type
• Dissolved oxygen concentration
• Nutrient loads
• Sediment contamination
• Residence time
Bay$Water$Quality
[sECOM 34D$&$
JEM]
Watershed$/$
Sewershed
[Infoworks]
Tidal$
Hydrodynamics$
[sECOM 24D]
Natural$
Ecosystem$Areas$
[VisionMaker
Marsh$(VMM)]
Monthly$Tidal$
Flooding
[sECOM 24D]
Flood$Damage$
and$
Consequences$
Water$quality$
metrics
Land$cover$
metrics
Flood$risk$
metrics
Species$Habitat$
Areas$
[VisionMaker]
Water$Quality$&$
Hydrodynamics$
[ECOMSED]
Required$
module
Primary$
metrics
Future$
module
Legend
Concept 1 – proposed barrier + perimeter
restoration
Concept 2 – Inlet narrowing, perimeter, and max
restoration
10
Scenario Year SLR
(in)
Annual
Temperature
Change
(1985 = 0; °F)
Annual
Rainfall
Change
(%)
Rainfall Analog for Time
Series Modeling
(Gauge-Year)
50th 2041 16 3.9 5
NYCDEP “Future
Central”
JFK-2005
90th 2041 30 5.2 10
NYCDEP “Future
Precautionary”
LGA-2006
50th 2066 29 6.0 10
NYCDEP “Future
Precautionary”
LGA-2006
90th 2066 58 8.3 15
NYCDEP “Future
Precautionary”
LGA-2006
(up-scaled to 15%)
Source: NPCC (2015); compared to 1971-2000 mid-point baseline.
Climate Scenarios
Sea level rise trends
Plot shows NPCC estimates of future SLR with a fitted polynomial for interpolation (NPCC, 2015). Values shown
here are relative to a 2000-2004 baseline; these were later converted to a 2016 baseline for this analysis.
Year 25
Results –
Change
in
Habitat
PENDING FINAL REVIEW
DO NOT CITE OR
DISTRIBUTE
Results – Land Gain/Loss
PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
Results –
Change
in
Habitat
PENDING FINAL REVIEW
DO NOT CITE OR
DISTRIBUTE
Results –
Assets
Inundated
by Tidal
Flooding
PENDING FINAL REVIEW
DO NOT CITE OR
DISTRIBUTE
Scenario		/		Concept
Mid High
Without
Action
Concept	1:
Barrier	and
Restoration
Concept	2:
Narrowing
and	Wetlands
Without
Action
Concept	1:
Barrier	and
Restoration
Concept	2:
Narrowing
and	Wetlands
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Number	of	structures
388
270 290
1,816
1,568
1,635
Building	Category
Single	Family	Residential
Multi	Family	Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Institutional
Public
Results – Bottom layer Dissolved Oxygen
PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
Results – Summary Comparison
PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
Are the gains in habitat sustainable beyond
Year 2025?
Fagherazzi, Sergio, Giuilio Mariotti, Patricia Wiberg, and Karen McGlathery. “Marsh Collapse Does Not Require Sea Level
Rise.” Oceanography 26, no. 3 (September 1, 2013): 70-77. © 2013 The Oceanography Society, Inc.
Bathymetric change in Jamaica Bay (USACE)
Geomorphological and Archaeological Study of New York and New Jersey Harbor Navigation Channels
Sea level rise trends
Plot shows NPCC estimates of future SLR with a fitted polynomial for interpolation (NPCC, 2015). Values shown
here are relative to a 2000-2004 baseline; these were later converted to a 2016 baseline for this analysis.
Year 25
22
Hapke, C.J., Himmelstoss, E.A., Kratzmann, M., List, J.H., and Thieler, E.R., 2010, National assessment of shoreline change; historical
shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1118, 57 p.
Regional sediment supply to Jamaica Bay
2016
Sediment supply to Jamaica Bay
PENDING PUBLICATION. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
SCIENCE+
RESILIENCE
INSTITUTE
JAMAICA BAY, NYC
SCIENC
RESILIEN
INSTITU
JAMAICA BAY,
110 MT/yr
Are the gains in flood protection sustainable
beyond Year 2025?
New York
City Panel
on Climate
Change,
2015
Preliminary findings for discussion
1. Both Baywide concepts provide habitat and flood risk
reduction benefits without much impact to water quality
2. The habitat and flood risk reduction benefits are most
effective in the 20 - 30 year timeframe.
3. After that, we do not have a good handle on life cycle and
maintenance costs, potential damages, or feasible habitat
assemblages.
4.We do know that habitat restoration is more
adaptive/adjustable and benefits can be carried over to
longer term
Ø RAND-led study (Rockefeller funded)
Ø Jamaica Bay Observing System (NPS funded)
Ø USGS/Woods Hole data (DOI funded)
Ø Renfro et al SUNY-Stonybrook (NPS funded)
Primary Sources
SCIENCE+
RESILIENCE
INSTITUTE
JAMAICA BAY, NYC
SCIENC
RESILIEN
INSTITU
JAMAICA BAY,
Flooding
Ecosystems
Water Quality
Communities
Integrated
Assessment
Our Vision
A new model of collaboration emerges in
the Jamaica Bay watershed propelling the
City of New York and its local, regional, and
international partners to new standards of
sustainability and resilience.
Our Mission
Our mission is to advance science, support
decisions, and inspire people to support healthy
people and ecosystems.
What We Do
Advance the process and impact of
scientific research.
Support equity and adaptation in decision-
making
Inspire future generations to pursue
sustainability goals.
Our Values
Respect local and experiential knowledge
Harmonize diverse science from basic to usable
Foster inclusive and collaborative exchange
Examine problems and solutions constructively
Preliminary findings for discussion
1. Both scenarios provide habitat and flood risk reduction
benefits without much impact to water quality
2. The habitat and flood risk reduction benefits are most
effective in the 20 - 30 year timeframe.
3. After that, we do not have a good handle on life cycle and
maintenance costs, potential damages, or feasible habitat
assemblages.
4.We do know that habitat restoration is more
adaptive/adjustable and benefits can be carried over to
longer term

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Parris j bay_taskforce_apr2018_final

  • 1. Status and trends in Jamaica Bay: Building a Baywide assessment
  • 2. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, Latest study on Water Quality LateststudyonEcosystems Latest study on Flooding Latest study on Communities
  • 3. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, Flooding Ecosystems Water Quality Communities Integrated Assessment
  • 4. Integrated Analysis and Planning Project Demonstrate value of building integrated analytical tools and interactive approach to long-term planning under uncertainty
  • 6. Primary goals and metrics Improve habitat and ecosystem function Reduce flood risk Improve water quality Goal Metric(s) • Flood exposure (e.g., count of structures flooded) • Inundation area • Acreage and extent of designated habitats by type • Dissolved oxygen concentration • Nutrient loads • Sediment contamination • Residence time
  • 7. Bay$Water$Quality [sECOM 34D$&$ JEM] Watershed$/$ Sewershed [Infoworks] Tidal$ Hydrodynamics$ [sECOM 24D] Natural$ Ecosystem$Areas$ [VisionMaker Marsh$(VMM)] Monthly$Tidal$ Flooding [sECOM 24D] Flood$Damage$ and$ Consequences$ Water$quality$ metrics Land$cover$ metrics Flood$risk$ metrics Species$Habitat$ Areas$ [VisionMaker] Water$Quality$&$ Hydrodynamics$ [ECOMSED] Required$ module Primary$ metrics Future$ module Legend
  • 8. Concept 1 – proposed barrier + perimeter restoration
  • 9. Concept 2 – Inlet narrowing, perimeter, and max restoration
  • 10. 10 Scenario Year SLR (in) Annual Temperature Change (1985 = 0; °F) Annual Rainfall Change (%) Rainfall Analog for Time Series Modeling (Gauge-Year) 50th 2041 16 3.9 5 NYCDEP “Future Central” JFK-2005 90th 2041 30 5.2 10 NYCDEP “Future Precautionary” LGA-2006 50th 2066 29 6.0 10 NYCDEP “Future Precautionary” LGA-2006 90th 2066 58 8.3 15 NYCDEP “Future Precautionary” LGA-2006 (up-scaled to 15%) Source: NPCC (2015); compared to 1971-2000 mid-point baseline. Climate Scenarios
  • 11. Sea level rise trends Plot shows NPCC estimates of future SLR with a fitted polynomial for interpolation (NPCC, 2015). Values shown here are relative to a 2000-2004 baseline; these were later converted to a 2016 baseline for this analysis. Year 25
  • 12. Results – Change in Habitat PENDING FINAL REVIEW DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE
  • 13. Results – Land Gain/Loss PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
  • 14. Results – Change in Habitat PENDING FINAL REVIEW DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE
  • 15. Results – Assets Inundated by Tidal Flooding PENDING FINAL REVIEW DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE Scenario / Concept Mid High Without Action Concept 1: Barrier and Restoration Concept 2: Narrowing and Wetlands Without Action Concept 1: Barrier and Restoration Concept 2: Narrowing and Wetlands 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Number of structures 388 270 290 1,816 1,568 1,635 Building Category Single Family Residential Multi Family Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional Public
  • 16. Results – Bottom layer Dissolved Oxygen PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
  • 17. Results – Summary Comparison PENDING FINAL REVIEW. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE.
  • 18. Are the gains in habitat sustainable beyond Year 2025?
  • 19. Fagherazzi, Sergio, Giuilio Mariotti, Patricia Wiberg, and Karen McGlathery. “Marsh Collapse Does Not Require Sea Level Rise.” Oceanography 26, no. 3 (September 1, 2013): 70-77. © 2013 The Oceanography Society, Inc.
  • 20. Bathymetric change in Jamaica Bay (USACE) Geomorphological and Archaeological Study of New York and New Jersey Harbor Navigation Channels
  • 21. Sea level rise trends Plot shows NPCC estimates of future SLR with a fitted polynomial for interpolation (NPCC, 2015). Values shown here are relative to a 2000-2004 baseline; these were later converted to a 2016 baseline for this analysis. Year 25
  • 22. 22 Hapke, C.J., Himmelstoss, E.A., Kratzmann, M., List, J.H., and Thieler, E.R., 2010, National assessment of shoreline change; historical shoreline change along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1118, 57 p. Regional sediment supply to Jamaica Bay
  • 23. 2016 Sediment supply to Jamaica Bay PENDING PUBLICATION. DO NOT CITE OR DISTRIBUTE. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, 110 MT/yr
  • 24. Are the gains in flood protection sustainable beyond Year 2025?
  • 25. New York City Panel on Climate Change, 2015
  • 26. Preliminary findings for discussion 1. Both Baywide concepts provide habitat and flood risk reduction benefits without much impact to water quality 2. The habitat and flood risk reduction benefits are most effective in the 20 - 30 year timeframe. 3. After that, we do not have a good handle on life cycle and maintenance costs, potential damages, or feasible habitat assemblages. 4.We do know that habitat restoration is more adaptive/adjustable and benefits can be carried over to longer term
  • 27. Ø RAND-led study (Rockefeller funded) Ø Jamaica Bay Observing System (NPS funded) Ø USGS/Woods Hole data (DOI funded) Ø Renfro et al SUNY-Stonybrook (NPS funded) Primary Sources
  • 28. SCIENCE+ RESILIENCE INSTITUTE JAMAICA BAY, NYC SCIENC RESILIEN INSTITU JAMAICA BAY, Flooding Ecosystems Water Quality Communities Integrated Assessment
  • 29. Our Vision A new model of collaboration emerges in the Jamaica Bay watershed propelling the City of New York and its local, regional, and international partners to new standards of sustainability and resilience. Our Mission Our mission is to advance science, support decisions, and inspire people to support healthy people and ecosystems. What We Do Advance the process and impact of scientific research. Support equity and adaptation in decision- making Inspire future generations to pursue sustainability goals. Our Values Respect local and experiential knowledge Harmonize diverse science from basic to usable Foster inclusive and collaborative exchange Examine problems and solutions constructively
  • 30. Preliminary findings for discussion 1. Both scenarios provide habitat and flood risk reduction benefits without much impact to water quality 2. The habitat and flood risk reduction benefits are most effective in the 20 - 30 year timeframe. 3. After that, we do not have a good handle on life cycle and maintenance costs, potential damages, or feasible habitat assemblages. 4.We do know that habitat restoration is more adaptive/adjustable and benefits can be carried over to longer term