Pinebridge 2020 Q3
- 3. I.
- 4. PAGE 3 MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI MSCI 300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI ESG MSCI ( ) (NEXGEM) - - - - - - Bloomberg 2020/5/29 -21.4 -39.2 -18.5 -16.5 -24.9 -11.3 -21.3 -8.8 -24.4 -5.6 -9.2 -15.7 -9.9 -2.1 -5.8 -15.3 -26.4 -12.1 -7.5 -8.6 -4.3 -6.1 2.0 -16.1 -1.9 3.5 -6.7 -0.6 -0.2 3.05 3 % % -5.3 2.0 0.2 -7.3 -6.7 -0.2 -3.0 -14.4 -5.9 -7.7 -4.7 -6.8 1.4 5.5 1.5 8.6 -6.0 -0.9 -2.1 -2.8 -6.9 -2.6 -4.4 -14.4 -6.4 -6.1 -3.4 -5.2 -1.5 1.6 -1.2 3.3 - - ESG 3 % %
- 5. PAGE 4 Bloomberg 2020/5/29 -20.1 -11.5 -5.6 -24.7 -2.4 -0.2 -11.4 -5.0 -6.9 0.8 -1.0 2.0 -10.8 -4.6 -3.9 -16.2 -2.0 0.9 -6.1 2.5 -3.7 0.3 0.7 0.2 3 % % -12.9 14.0 -46.5 -41.9 -28.8 -4.6 9.1 -30.1 -20.7 -17.1 LME CRB 3 % %
- 6. II.
- 7. PAGE 6 • • • 2020 Bloomberg 2020/5/29 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% GDP( ) 0.2% (2020/3) 40 45 50 55 60 65 2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5 2019/11 PMI 41.5 (2020/4) PMI 41.8 (2020/4) -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CPI 0.3% (2020/4) CPI 1.4% (2020/4) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 14.7% (2020/4)
- 8. PAGE 7 • 0%~0.25% • QE ETF Bloomberg 2020/5/29 ( 0.25%) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) 0.25% (2020/5/29)
- 9. PAGE 8 • • • Bloomberg 2020/5/29 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% GDP( ) -3.2% (2020/3) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5 2019/11 2020/5 PMI 39.5 (2020/5) PMI 28.7 (2020/5) -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% CPI 0.1% (2020/5) CPI 0.9% (2020/5) 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 7.4% (2020/3)
- 10. PAGE 9 • QE (PEPP) 1.35 2021 6 -0.75% Bloomberg 2020/5/29 ( 0.1%) -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0.0% (2020/5/29) -0.5% (2020/5/29)
- 11. PAGE 10 • 10 GDP 324 GDP 40% Bloomberg 2020/5/29 -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% GDP( ) -2.0% (2020/3) 20 30 40 50 60 2017/6 2017/12 2018/6 2018/12 2019/6 2019/12 PMI 38.4 (2020/5) PMI 25.3 (2020/5) -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% CPI 0.1% (2020/4) CPI -0.1% (2020/4) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2.6% (2020/4)
- 12. PAGE 11 • QE ETF 75 3 Bloomberg 2020/5/29 ( 0.1%) -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% (2020/5/29)
- 13. PAGE 12 • Bloomberg 2020/5/29 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% GDP( ) -3.4% (2020/3) 30 35 40 45 50 55 2017/5 2017/11 2018/5 2018/11 2019/5 2019/11 PMI 42.7 (2020/4) PMI 31.5 (2020/4) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% CPI 4.5% (2020/3) 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5.0% (2019/12)
- 14. PAGE 13 - Bank of America WSJ 2020/05 - IMF World Economic Outlook 2020/04 ? V U W ? 2.9% -3% 5.8% 202120202019 2.3% -5.9% 4.7% 1.2% -7.5% 202120202019 4.7% 3.7% -1% 6.6% 20212019 2020 V : 10% 194 …. IMF .… U or W : 75% 6 – 12 12 - 24 202120202019
- 15. III.
- 16. PAGE 15 • ( : ) Bloomberg 2020/5/29 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 10 0.653% (2020/5/29) 2 0.160% (2020/5/29) -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 10 -0.447% (2020/5/29) 2 -0.659% (2020/5/29)
- 17. PAGE 16 • ETF (fallen angel) • 3 Bloomberg 2020/5/29 Bank of America 2020/05 70bp 120bp 170bp 220bp 270bp 320bp 370bp 420bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 174bp (2020/5/29) 5 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2.40% (2020/5/29) 5
- 18. PAGE 17 • ETF • Bloomberg 2020/5/29 Bank of America 2020/04/30 200bp 300bp 400bp 500bp 600bp 700bp 800bp 900bp 1000bp 1100bp 1200bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 637bp (2020/5/29) 5 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 7.02% (2020/5/29) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% (12 ) : 5.06% (2020/04) (Notes) 2020 : 8% - 10%
- 19. PAGE 18 • IMF • 5 Bloomberg 2020/5/28 (EMBI) (NEXGEM) Bloomberg 2020/4/30 2020 127 104 123 88 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2017 2018 2019 2020F ( 10 ) 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6.01% (2020/5/28) 5 200bp 300bp 400bp 500bp 600bp 700bp 800bp 900bp 1000bp 1100bp 1200bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 534bp (2020/5/28) 5 859bp (2020/5/28) 5
- 20. PAGE 19 • • ( : PEMEX 8 ) Bloomberg 2020/5/28 (CEMBI) J.P. Morgan 2020/04/30 150bp 250bp 350bp 450bp 550bp 650bp 750bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 474bp (2020/5/28) 5 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5.34% (2020/5/28) 5 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 (12 ) : 1.48% (2020/04) (Notes) 2020 : 4.8%
- 21. PAGE 20 • • 5 Bloomberg 2020/5/29 Bank of America 2020/4/30 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 (12 ) : 1.97% (2020/04) 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8.93% (2020/5/29) 5 150 bp 350 bp 550 bp 750 bp 950 bp 1150 bp 1350 bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 855bp (2020/5/29) 5 (Notes) 2020 : 4%
- 22. IV.
- 23. PAGE 22 • Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey Bloomberg 2020/5/19 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 500 21.6 (2020/5/29) 5 (%)
- 24. PAGE 23 • ( ) Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey Bloomberg 2020/5/22 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 600 17.4 (2020/5/29) 5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5 GDP( % ) PMI_ ( ) PMI_ ( )
- 25. PAGE 24 • 2020 Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12 BofA Global Research Bloomberg 2020/5/30 12 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 300 11.5 (2020/5/29) 5
- 26. PAGE 25 • 20 GDP 1% Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12 Bank of America 2020/5/22 ( ) 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MSCI 17.6 (2020/5/29) 5 0 50 100 150 200 250 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5 ( )
- 27. PAGE 26 • Bloomberg 2020/5/29 12 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 BOVESPA 15.8 (2020/5/29) 5 Selic ( ) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2020/2 2020/3 2020/4 2020/5
- 28. PAGE 27 • Bloomberg 2020/5/29 ICE 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 416bp (2020/5/29) 5 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.97% (2020/5/29) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
- 29. V.
- 31. PAGE 30 2020/6 3
- 32. 3
- 33. PAGE 32 Bloomberg 2020/5/29 2020 7 • 7/16 ECB • 7/22 BOJ • 7/29 FOMC 2020 8 • 8/13 ECB • 8/17 – 8/20 • 8/24 – 8/27 2020 9 • 9/10 ECB • 9/15 – 9/30 UN • 9/16 FOMC • 9/17 BOJ • 9/29 • G7
- 35. PAGE 34 IMF 2020/6/3 IMF 66 $236 1 27.7 8.9 4.1 1.5 10 7.4 34 4.4 4.9 6.5 6.4 3.9 2.2 5.2 2.7 13.9 7.3 26 $2.3
- 36. PAGE 35 * 5 29 Bloomberg 2015/5/29 - 2020/5/29 / / / / (NEXGEM) / / - 3/23 bps 373 bps 5 bps 126 174 42% 637 1100 450 41% 699 477 1192 318 465 652 722 515 356 1130 1067 855 862 491 493 53%* 29% 29% 24% 19%
- 37. PAGE 36 2020/6 TR109154 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited / 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898