Predictability: No magic required
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The document discusses predictability in workflows, emphasizing the importance of queue management to improve cycle times and reduce variation. It highlights choices to make regarding queue systems, prioritization factors, and batch sizes, and suggests monitoring indicators to predict and manage queue issues. Ultimately, it encourages proactive control over predictability through informed decisions and baseline measurements.
![Adjective
Expected, especially on the
basis of previous or known
behavior
[good or bad!]
Predictable
[pri-dik-tuh-buh l]
@everydaykanban
USUALLY
GREAT!
USUALLY
HORRIBLE!
USUALLY
________!](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/julia-161110221050/85/Predictability-No-magic-required-2-320.jpg)
Predictability: No magic required
- 1. Predictability No magic required Julia Wester Improvement Coach & Team Manager EverydayKanban.com @everydaykanban learn@leankit.com
- 2. Adjective Expected, especially on the basis of previous or known behavior [good or bad!] Predictable [pri-dik-tuh-buh l] @everydaykanban USUALLY GREAT! USUALLY HORRIBLE! USUALLY ________!
- 3. How many telephone lines are needed to avoid blocked calls given § Random arrivals § Random durations Pulling answers from randomness @everydaykanban
- 4. The mathematical study of waiting lines, or queues. Can quantify relationships between queue size, capacity utilization and cycle times Queueing Theory was the solution @everydaykanban capacity utilization (rho) Queue size (N)
- 5. @everydaykanban TODAY’S TALK § Why queues matter § Choices we can make about queues § Monitoring your predictability indicators
- 7. @everydaykanban Queues are the waiting work in a system
- 8. Mo’ queue, Mo’ problems @everydaykanban § Longer average cycle times § Wider range of cycle times § More mgmt overhead § Reduced motivation & quality
- 9. @everydaykanban Our workflows are chains of queues
- 10. As interpreted by Don Reinertsen Aesop’s Fable: The Tortoise and the Hare @everydaykanban
- 11. Predictability ≠ fastest UNLESS you can consistently be that fast. To become more predictable…USUALLY DONE IN 2 to 200 DAYS! @everydaykanban USUALLY DONE IN 25 to 35 DAYS! reduce the range of probable outcomes.
- 12. @everydaykanban Choices we can make about queues
- 13. @everydaykanban Choice: Use a push system or pull system? 1 queue per server 1 queue multiple servers Which one do you use?
- 15. @everydaykanban Choice: What factors used to prioritize? Your policy here! FIFO/S PRIORITY
- 17. @everydaykanban Choice: Deliver large or small batches? Once a month Once a week
- 18. Once a week Once a month @everydaykanban Wider variation Less variation
- 20. @everydaykanban Cycle time ranges: Lagging indicator NovOctoberSeptemberAugustJuly Good clustering Can we reduce the outliers? 95%: 45 days or less
- 21. @everydaykanban Queue size: a leading indicator Which lane is going faster?
- 22. @everydaykanban CFD: Demonstrates the relationship Work units Time Avg. Queue Size Avg. Cycle Time To Do Design Create Verify Deliver 18 10 1.5 2.5
- 23. @everydaykanban Queue Size: predicting predictability issues Bigger queues lead to longer cycle times, less predictability Smaller queues lead to shorter cycle times, more predictability Work-In-Process (hidden queues?) Queued work 9 20 10 2
- 24. @everydaykanban • Remember, you have control over predictability! • Get baseline measures of queue size/cycle times. • Make informed choices about handling queues. • Monitor queues to anticipate and correct issues before they negatively impact cycle times.
- 26. www.leankit.com To receive a copy of: • The slide deck for today’s presentation • LeanKit’s 1st Annual Lean Business report Send an email to: julia@leankit.com Subject: DOES16