Is it a crime to estimate - #RSGECU2015
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This document discusses software development methodologies and estimating work. It provides biographical information about the author, including their experience in agile coaching and teaching. It then explores debates around estimating work, noting that estimates are not deadlines and focusing on understanding systems and accepting variability. Various estimation techniques are presented like planning poker, story points and lead time. A real case study example is shared how moving away from estimates to continuous delivery improved outcomes. The document emphasizes that #NoEstimates can work if work is done incrementally and rapidly to deliver value.
Is it a crime to estimate - #RSGECU2015
- 1. Is it a crime to #estimate? @JulianoRibeiro
- 2. Academics • Software developer since 1994 • Graduated in Systems to Internet • Post graduation in OOP with Java • Certified Scrum Professional by Scrum Alliance • Certified Delphi Developer by Embarcadero
- 3. More about me • Agile Methods Teacher at Faculdade Cidade Verde • Agile Coach at Objective Solutions • Organizer of Agile Tour since 2011 • 2014 in Sao Paulo, Maringa, Cascavel, Brasilia, Campinas and Curitiba • Regular speaker at main conferences in Brazil • Agile Brazil, Agile Trends, The Developers Conference, DevInSantos, DevCamp, Linguágil...
- 5. define:estimate • es.ti.ma.te • es·ti·mat·ed, es·ti·mat·ing, es·ti·mates • To calculate approximately (the amount, extent, magnitude, position, or value of something). • A tentative evaluation or rough calculation, as of worth, quantity, or size: an estimate of the damage caused by the storm. • A statement of the approximate cost of work to be done, such as a building project or car repairs.
- 9. Vilains
- 10. #NoEstimates
- 11. #NOESTIMATES Woody Zuill first wrote this hashtag on twitter He said it was an invitation, a challenge, not that you literally should not estimate at all!
- 13. Less waste
- 14. Understand your system Complex systems Complicated systems Chaotic systems Simple systems disorder
- 16. Focus on work
- 17. Understand that: Estimates are not deadlines!
- 19. Why we do estimates? • To plan • To have a schedule • To alocate resources • To alocate money
- 20. Actual estimation process Function points Planning poker Story points / T-Shirt sizing Lead / Cicle time
- 22. Planning Poker
- 24. Lead/Cicle time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
- 25. Analisys Duração Qtde % 1 2 6,7% 90,1% 2 8 26,7% 3 6 20,0% 4 5 16,7% 5 6 20,0% 6 1 3,3% 7 1 3,3% 8 0 0,0% 9 1 3,3% 10 0 0,0% 30 100%
- 26. One real case...
- 27. Initial State Scrum Complete and “by the book” Planning with estimatives Review with validation
- 28. How it was Sprints failing… Focus on delivery instead of quality Several user stories almost accepted Costumer unhappy And also the team
- 29. The changes Continuous delivery Changing on commitment Planning Refinement Review Continuous feedback
- 30. Results All user stories now are delivered between 3 and 5 days And so, this team don’t estimate any more
- 31. #NoEstimates only works if …is that it is possible to do small chunks of work incrementally, leading as rapidly as possible to a desired shippable product, and that when you do that there is no need to do much of anything in the way of estimating stories or the project. Ron Jeffries
Editor's Notes
- #30: Invertemos o comprometimento de um total de histórias para uma história por vez, completa, na melhor qualidade possível