The #NoEstimates Movement - 2017
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This document discusses the #NoEstimates movement in software development. The key ideas are: - #NoEstimates explores alternatives to estimates for making decisions, such as reducing or eliminating estimation processes. - Estimates often do not directly add value and have high failure rates. Alternatives proposed include using relative story sizes of 1, 3, 5 or all 1s. - The goal is to improve how teams work to make estimates redundant, not to ditch them entirely. This could involve limiting story sizes, building cumulative flow diagrams, and negotiating decisions rather than estimates.
The #NoEstimates Movement - 2017
- 2. http://ryanripley.com ryan@ryanripley.com @ryanripley A podcast devoted to the individuals and interactions that make agile work.
- 5. #Agile2017
- 6. #NoEstimates
- 12. We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more.
- 13. Stacey Diagram •Simple: Everything is known •Complicated: More is known than unknown •Complex: More is unknown than know •Chaotic: Very little is known
- 19. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates Dictionary.com - an approximate judgment or calculation, as of the value, amount, time, size, or weight of something. Merriam-Webster - a : to judge tentatively or approximately the value, worth, or significance of b : to determine roughly the size, extent, or nature of c : to produce a statement of the approximate cost of The American Heritage Dictionary – 1. A tentative evaluation or rough calculation. 2. A preliminary calculation of the cost of a project. 3. A judgement based upon one’s impressions; opinion. Predicting the Unpredictable by Johanna Rothman – Literally, “guess.” How long or how much you think the project will take for date and/or cost. Software Estimation by Steve McConnell – A good estimate is an estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project and hit its targets.
- 20. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates EFFORT/COST/DURATION OF THE WORK •Domain Knowledge •Programming Experience ACCIDENTAL COMPLICATION •Code Complexity •Design Decisions •Team Stability •Multitasking •Dependencies •Technical Debt •Legacy Code •Deployment Pipeline •Size of Your Stories •Clarity of Work •Quality of Requirements •Lack of Priorities •WIP Limits Too High •Management Discipline •Technology / Platform Changes •Team Collaboration •Craftsmanship ESSENTIAL COMPLICATION •Inherent Difficulty of the Work •Natural Disasters •Unforeseen Occurrences ESTIMATE = ++
- 21. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates ESTIMATE = “THE WORK” + “BUFFER”
- 23. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates MAGIC NUMBERS “MULTIPLY BY 2 AND ADD 2 WEEKS” 80% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver- hillary-clinton-donald-trump-2016-6 1) MAKE YOUR ESTIMATES 2) ADD ONE 3) TAKE THE NEXT UNIT PAD THE NUMBERS BY 20% (WHY NOT 40%?) EXCEL GYMNASTICS
- 24. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates “IN 1986, PROFS. S.D. CONTE, H.E. DUNSMORE, AND V.Y. SHEN PROPOSED THAT A GOOD ESTIMATION APPROACH SHOULD PROVIDE ESTIMATES THAT ARE WITHIN 25% OF THE ACTUAL RESULTS 75% OF THE TIME.” SOURCE: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
- 25. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates “OF THE LARGE SYSTEMS THAT ARE COMPLETED, 66% EXPERIENCE SCHEDULE DELAYS AND COST OVERRUN.” SOURCE: Project Management Tools and Software Failures and Successes by Capers Jones – Journal of Defense Software Engineering
- 26. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates 80% of Projects Are Late or Failed **Cost and/or duration estimates not met. SOURCE: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell Overall, a compelling number of studies have found results in line with the results reported by The Standish Group and Jones, that about one quarter of all projects are delivered on time; about one quarter are cancelled; and about half are delivered late, over budget, or both.
- 27. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates “17% OF LARGE IT PROJECTS GO SO BADLY THAT THEY CAN THREATEN THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THE COMPANY.” SOURCE: McKinsey & Company with University of Oxford – Study on large scale IT projects - 2012
- 28. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ?@ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates
- 32. #NOESTIMATES IS A HASHTAG FOR THE TOPIC OF EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES TO ESTIMATES FOR MAKING DECISIONS IN SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT. THAT IS, WAYS TO MAKE DECISIONS WITH “NO ESTIMATES”
- 33. THIS IS THE MAIN PREMISE BEHIND #NOESTIMATES: ESTIMATES DO NOT DIRECTLY ADD VALUE TO YOUR PROCESS, SO WE WANT TO FIND WAYS TO REDUCE THE ESTIMATION PROCESS OR EVEN STOP IT WHERE POSSIBLE
- 34. #NOESTIMATES ISN’T ABOUT DITCHING ESTIMATES. IT IS ABOUT IMPROVING THE WAY WE WORK SUCH THAT ESTIMATES BECOME REDUNDANT
- 39. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates “Bill Hanlon looked at 60-ish projects that used relative estimates. He looked at how accurate their predictions were as compared to the actuals. Then he reset all estimates to 1 and recomputed their velocities, made accordant projections and compared those to actuals. He found about a 3% variance in predictive accuracy between full data and just using 1. SOURCE: Planning with Any Hope of Accuracy by Arlo Belshee - http://arlobelshee.com/planning-with-any-hope-of-accuracy/
- 40. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ?@ryanripley #NoEstimates Using 1 – 3 – 5 Planning Poker Cards Source: Vasco Duarte - #NoEstimates Keynote
- 41. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ?@ryanripley #NoEstimates Using 1 – 2 - 3 Planning Poker Cards Source: Vasco Duarte - #NoEstimates Keynote
- 42. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ?@ryanripley #NoEstimates All stories labeled with a “1” Source: Vasco Duarte - #NoEstimates Keynote
- 56. @ryanripley #NoEstimates@ryanripley #NoEstimates NEXT STEPS: 1. IF YOU ESTIMATE IN HOURS MOVE TO SP’s 2. DON’T ESTIMATE TASKS 3. LIMIT THE SIZE OF STORIES 4. IF YOU USE SP’s, ONLY USE 1,3, and 5 5. BUILD CUMULATIVE FLOW DIAGRAMS 6. EVERY STORY CAN BE A 1 7. NEGOTIATE DECISIONS, NOT ESTIMATES
- 58. @ryanripley #NoEstimates Recommended Resources: Blogs: • Woody Zuill - http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/ • Neil Killick – http://neilkillick.wordpress.com/ • Vasco Duarte - http://oikosofy.com/news/ YouTube Videos: • Alan Holub’s #NoEstimates Keynote - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVBlnCTu9Ms • Woody Zuill’s #NoEstimates: Lets Explore the Possibilities - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oMk2oRJNbc Books: • Vasco Duarte’s #NoEstimates Book - http://noestimatesbook.com/ • Johanna Rothman’s Predicting the Unpredictable - http://amzn.to/2mG2qXd Podcasts: • Agile for Humans Episode 52 “Software Estimation with Steve McConnell” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-052- software-estimation-with-steve-mcconnell-podcast/ • Agile for Humans Episode 50 “Agile Ideas with Neil Killick” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-050-agile-ideas- with-neil-killick-podcast/ • Agile for Humans Episode 45 “System Thinking and #NoEstimates with Chris Chapman” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-045-system-thinking-and-noestimates-with-chris-chapman-podcast/ • Agile for Humans Episode 20 “#NoEstimates with Vasco Duarte” - http://ryanripley.com/noestimates-with- vasco-duarte/
- 59. http://ryanripley.com ryan@ryanripley.com @ryanripley A podcast devoted to the individuals and interactions that make agile work.