Predicting Post Outage Transmission Line Flows using Linear Distribution Factors

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100 Copyright © 2018. IJEMR. All Rights Reserved.
Volume-8, Issue-5, October 2018
International Journal of Engineering and Management Research
Page Number: 100-106
DOI: doi.org/10.31033/ijemr.8.5.11
Predicting Post Outage Transmission Line Flows using Linear
Distribution Factors
Onyedikachi S. Nnamdi1
, Emmanuel. A. Anazia2
and Obroh O. Rebecca3
1
Lecturer, Electrical Engineering Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, NIGERIA
2
Senior Lecturer, Electrical Engineering Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, NIGERIA
3
M. Eng. Student, International Breweries PLC, Port Harcourt Plant Nigerian, NIGERIA
1
Corresponding Author: ns.onyedikachi@unizik.edu.ng
ABSTRACT
In order to design and implement preventive
and remedial actions, a continuous performance of fast
security analysis is imperative amid outages of system
components. Following the contingency of a system
component, State estimation and Load flow techniques
are the two popular techniques used to determine
system state variables leading to estimation of flows,
losses and violations in nodal voltages and transmission
line flows. But the dynamic state and complexity of the
system requires faster means of estimations which can
be achieved by linear distribution factors. The use of
Distribution factors in form of Power Transfer
Distribution Factors (PTDF) and Line Outage
Distribution Factors (LODF) which are transmission
line sensitivities with respect to active power exchanges
between buses and transmission line outages offer an
alternative to these two techniques being linear,
quicker, and non-iterative. Following the estimation of
the linear distribution factors from a reference
operating point (base case) and contingency cases
involving line outage, generator output variation and
outage of a Six bus network using Matlab programs,
the results show that by means of Linear Distribution
factors quick estimates of post outage line flows can be
made which match flow results obtained from DC load
flow analysis.
Keywords— Contingency, Distribution Factors, LODF,
Outages, Post Contingency Flows, PTDF
I. INTRODUCTION
Beyond the planning stage of any powers system,
optimal operation is vital for reliable performance of the
system. On account of the limitations imposed by the
system design and economy of operation, it is the
responsibility of the system operators to ensure the reliable
operation of system components.Since power system
components are connected for ease of disconnection,
system contingency ishighly probable and inevitable.
Contingencies define those events that tend to disrupt or
disturb the normal operation of the system such as a
generator, transformer or transmission line. Scheduled
outage on account of maintenance or forced component
outage on account of fault makes it impossible to operate a
power system with all its components online at all times.
Therefore, the ability to predict the impact of an outage on
the system is instructive to guarantee secure and stable
system operation.Power system security, an aspect of
reliability is comprised of all practices designed to ensure
that the system maintains operation despite a component
failure. The aim of power system security is to ensure that
the power system operations under stable conditions or is
restored to it, such that single component outage or failure
(N-1 contingency) does not lead to cascaded tripping and
blackout [4]. Power system security analysis is achieved
by three major approaches namely; System Monitoring
(SM), Contingency Analysis (CA) and Security
constrained Optimal Power Flow (SCOPF). CA is the
study of the impacts of conditional changes or deviations
with respect to the scheduled or unscheduled outage of
component(s) during steady state operation of a power
system.The effect of a component contingency on the
remaining system may cause undesired operating
conditions that may be disastrous if response or prevention
are not in place to control their impact. The instructive
question is whether is it possible to predict a post-

contingency power flow on transmission lines of an actual
power system that gives insight to possible flow violations.
The process of examining the system to ascertain the
response of the system to changes on transmission line
status with respect to power flows is encapsulated in
sensitivity analysis.
The idea of sensitivity analysis in power systems
has been widely used to avoid recalculation of the power
flow solution. In transmission systems, the parameters used
in these analyses are the power transfer distribution factors
(PTDF) and the line outage distribution factors (LODF).
PTDFs are defined as the changes in the line power flows
due to a change in power injection at a particular bus.
LODFs are defined as the changes in the line power flows
due to the disconnection of a particular line [1]. The
calculation of these distribution factors has gained more
interest recently due to the need for fast online
readjustments in modern power systems. There are
generally two approaches to calculate distribution factors
for power systems. Considering a more realistic model,
power flow equations form a nonlinear system of
equations. In order to find sensitivities, one need to find the
Jacobian matrix at a particular solution of the network,
which yields distribution factors that are only valid for
small variations around the operating point [2] and[3]. The
second approach is to find an approximate linear model
that describes the system for relatively large variations in
operating point and find the distribution factors for the
approximate linear system. The decoupled power flow
equations, for instance, are used in [4] to find the
sensitivity of reactive power flows to transmission line and
power transformer outages. The Fast Decoupled power
flow method was adopted in [5] [5] to derive AC
distribution factors for transmission systems. These factors
were then used to formulate a re-dispatch optimization
problem for congestion management. The assumptions of
Fast Decoupled power flow are not as strongly hold for
distribution systems as they are for transmission systems
(X/R ratio is smaller in distribution systems). Also, those
factors depend on the operating condition of the system
and, therefore, are valid for small changes in power flow
patterns. A linear approximation of the power flow
equations is the so-called DC power flow, in which all
voltage magnitudes are assumed to be one per-unit, line
resistances are ignored, and voltage angles are assumed to
be small enough so that their Sine are approximately equal
to the angles in radians. Based on the linear DC power
flow equations, the PTDFs and LODFs can be derived for
a transmission system [1]. The assumptions of DC power
flow are not valid for distribution systems since the voltage
magnitude plays an important role and cannot be
dismissed. Besides analytical studies, there have been
some efforts recently to derive the distribution factors
based on real time data provided by phasor measurement
units. [6] observed that distribution factors may be derived
without the need for a power flow model. Distribution
factors have many applications in transmission systems,
such as optimal transmission switching [7], (N −1) security
assessment [8], congestion management [9], generation
rescheduling, etc. Using distribution factors, it is possible
to calculate the changes in other system quantities such as
losses and generation cost. Despite broad discussions on
derivations and applications of distribution factors at the
transmission level, there is rather limited work on the
distribution system counterpart. Distribution systems have
high R/X ratios, radial configurations, a mixture of cables
and overhead lines, and unbalanced loads. Due to these
unique features, the power flow algorithms and sensitivity
analysis derived for transmission systems are not always
valid for distribution systems. Power flow algorithms
specifically designed for distribution systems have been
proposed in the literature, for the linear power flow (LPF)
[10]. Using the ad joint network method, which is based on
the application of Tellegen’s theorem to power systems,
the authors of [11] derived the sensitivities of power losses
and voltage magnitudes with respect to power injection at
any node in the system. Since this method is only valid for
radial distribution systems and cannot be used to calculate
the branch outage distribution factors (BODF) due to
voltage dependence on load. Similar to the case of
transmission systems, there are many applications for
distribution factors in distribution systems. [12] used a set
of Linear Power Flow (LPF) equations to describe two
kinds of distribution factors namely Current Transfer
Distribution factors (CTDF) and Branch Outage
Distribution Factors (BODF) whose application was
illustrated using the optimal placement of distributed
generation/capacitor banks as well as minimum-loss
network re-configuration of a distribution network.
II. LINEAR DISTRIBUTION FACTORS
The problem of studying thousands of possible
outages becomes very difficult to solve if the desire is to
present quick results. One of the easiest ways to provide a
quick calculation of possible overloads is to use linear
distribution factors [13]. Essentially, the linear distribution
factors approximately estimate the changes in different line
flows for any particular outage condition. When their
values have been established, subsequent transmission
lines flow can be estimated with high DC defined accuracy
while avoiding the tedious AC load flow analysis. So
basically, linear distribution factors are of two types:
Power Transfer Distribution Factors (PTDF)
PTDF shows linearized impact of power transfer
[10]. It is the relative change in power flow on a particular
line due to an injection and withdrawal of power on a pair
of buses [12]. They represent the sensitivity of the flow on
line to a shift of power from bus to bus. Power Transfer
Distribution Factors are also known by other names such
as Generation Shift Factors (GSFs), Power Distribution
Coefficients (PDCs), Effectiveness Factors and Impedance

Factors. The PTDF has four (4) attributes; a particular Line
(with reference direction), particular Bus, Value of the
transfer factor and a Reference bus
The value of the PTDF of line with respect to bus
is defined to be the change (or sensitivity) of active (MW)
power flow in a reference direction on line with respect to
a change in injection at bus and a corresponding change in
withdrawal at the reference bus [8].
The PTDF factors are designated and have the
following definition
(1)
Where
Bus where power is injected (contingency bus)
: Monitored transmission line index
Bus where power is taken out (post-contingency bus)
Power transferred from bus to bus
Change in megawatt power flow on line when is made
between and
Then the post outage flow can be derived with
When bus k is the reference bus, then
= Post-contingency real power flow on line (post outage
flow)
Pre-contingency real flow on line (pre outage flow)
If the pre-contingency and post-contingency
generations of a generator are and then the change in
generation due to total outage or output-reduction is
Once the “post contingency flow” on each line
has been gotten, then they may be compared to its pre-
specified secure limit and those exceeding their limits
flagged. This informs system operatorof an overloading
implication on the monitored transmission line. The
numerical range of PTDF is: . implies that all of the
transferred power from to must flow through line t.
means that all of the transferred power from to will flow
through line t, but in a reverse direction while means that
none of the power transferred from to will pass through
line t.
2.2 Line Outage Distribution Factor (LODF)
Line outage distribution factors are linear
estimates of the change in flow on adjacent lines when
transmission lines are lost and are normally applied for
checking overloads on the lines following the line loss [2].
They represent the sensitivity of the flow on line to a line
failure in the network [13]. LODF shows linearized impact
of power transfer and aid in estimating the impact opening
(outage) a transmission line will have on other online
transmission lines. The value of the LODF of line with
respect to loss of line is defined to be the change (or
sensitivity) of active (MW) power flow on line with line
out.
From definition the LODF is expressed as:
(2)
(3)
Where
= Outaged transmission line index
= Monitored transmission line index
Line outage distribution factor of the monitored line m
after an outage of line
= Pre-contingency/pre-outage flow on line , before line
was opened
= Pre-contingency/pre-outage flow on line before it was
opened
Change in MW flow on line
Since the real power flows on line and on line are
known, and then the post-outage flow on line with lineout
can be determined using “LODF” factors expressed as:
The LODF matrix is stored such that each row
and column corresponds to one line in the network, with
rows corresponding to monitored line and columns
corresponding to the outaged lines. The LODF for a
particular outage and monitored transmission line is
obtained by finding the monitored line down the rows and
then finding the outaged line along the row in the
appropriate column. By pre-calculating the LODFs, a very
fast procedure can be set up to test all lines in the network
for overload for the outage of a particular line.
Furthermore, this procedure can be repeated for the outage
of each line in turn, with overloads reported to the
operations personnel in form of alarm messages.
III. METHODOLOGY
Direct Current (DC) Load Flow of Sample Network
Unlike the AC load flow, the DC power flow is a
non-iterative as it simplifies the Fast decoupled AC
derivations under certain assumptions. Following these
assumptions, the predominant relationship from the Fast
decoupled method relates and , expressed as
Where the diagonal and off diagonal of the reactance
matrix B is
and
But where, the resistance of the transmission line is
significant, then
and
The DC load flow is adequate in estimating approximately
accurate MW flows on transformers and transmission lines
while ignoring the MVAR and MVA flows. Consequently,
the real or MW power flow on a lossless transmission line
connected between bus and bus using DC power flow is
(6)
The Power injected into any bus is given as
(7)
= reactance of line between bus and bus
Calculated Real power schedule at bus and respectively
= Real power flowing through transmission line connected
between bus and bus
= Voltage bus angle at bus and respectively
3.1 Description of Sample Network
One-line diagram of network is shown in figure 1
with generators at buses 1, 2 and 3 while loads are

distributed at buses 4, 5 and 6. The Bus/Generator and
Branch Data are given in Table 1 and 2 respectively.
Using 100MVA as base power,
; ; ; ; .
Figure 1: A 6-bus network [13]
To complete DC power flow analysis the reactive
power component of the network is neglected, the
susceptance matrix is required.
Neglecting bus 1 which is the slack bus, the
corresponding and: diagonal and off-diagonal elements of
the matrix is formulated from
Since
then
The inverse of the B matrix yields
Solving the matrix multiplication for the bus voltage phase
angles (in Radians), yields
With line losses ignored, the power-flow on any line
placed between bus and bus can be obtained using,
;;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
Note that
Power scheduled at is derived using
Bus 1:
Bus 2:
Bus 3:
Bus 4:
Bus 5:
Bus 6:
IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
Consider the load flow results shown in table 3,
the base case power flow on line L2 is 76.66 MW.
Following the outage of the generator at bus 2, the network
transfers its generator output demand of 50MW from
generator at bus 2 to the slack bus, bus 1.
Table 3: Base Case AC and DC Load Flow Results
B a s e C a s e
LineCode
B u s
LineLimit(MW)
ACLoadFlow(MW) DC LoadFlow(MW)
From To LineFlow LineLoss Line Flow LineLoss
L 1 1 2
100
62.2 3 . 6 60.65 0
L 2 1 4
100
82.8 3.02 76.66 0
L 3 1 5
100
6 8 3.25 62.69 0
L 4 2 3
6 0
14.8 0 . 1 13.68 0
L 5 2 4
6 0
28.9 0.42 32.03 0
L 6 2 5
6 0
21.9 0.46 22.26 0
L 7 2 6
6 0
4 3 1.18 42.67 0
Bus 3
Bus 2
Bus 6
Bus 4
Bus 1
Bus 5

L 8 3 5
6 0
12.4 0 . 2 12.54 0
L 9 3 6
6 0
52.2 0.55 51.14 0
L10 4 5
6 0
8.21 0.14 8 . 6 9 0
L11 5 6
6 0
6.63 0.05 6 . 1 8 0
The change in power at bus 2 is The DC
evaluated post generator outage flow on line L2 is
92.41MW. To estimate the PTDF we employ
Evaluating PTDF and LODF
The AC and DC MW line flows/losses for base
and contingency cases are captured on composite table 6.
The base case DC network composition had been the basis
for the computed PTDF (table 4) and LODF (table 5) with
which post contingency line flows are estimated.
Where
Monitored transmission line index; Bus where power is
taken out (contingency bus)
: Bus where power is injected (post-contingency bus) ;; :
Change in power at bus i;
Table 4: Matrix table for PTDF
Line C o n t i n g e n t B u s e s
Code Bus1 B u s 2 B u s 3 B u s 4 B u s 5 B u s 6
L 1 0 -0.4706 -0.4026 -0.3149 -0.3217 -0.4064
L 2 0 -0.3149 -0.2949 -0.5044 -0.2711 -0.296
L 3 0 -0.2145 -0.3026 -0.1807 -0.4072 -0.2976
L 4 0 0 . 0 5 44 -0.3416 0 . 0 1 6 -0.1057 -0.1907
L 5 0 0 . 3 1 15 0.2154 -0.379 0.1013 0.2208
L 6 0 0 . 0 9 93 -0.0342 0.0292 -0.1927 -0.0266
L 7 0 0 . 0 6 42 -0.2422 0.0189 -0.1246 - 0 . 4 1
L 8 0 0 . 0 6 22 0 . 2 8 9 0.0183 -0.1207 0.1526
L 9 0 -0.0077 0.3695 -0.0023 0 . 0 1 5 -0.3433
L 1 0 0 -0.0034 -0.0795 0.1166 -0.1698 -0.0752
L 1 1 0 -0.0565 -0.1273 -0.0166 0.1096 -0.2467
Where appears as the intersection of column 2
(the contingent bus) with row 2 (the monitored line). The
PTDF values for the other 10 monitored lines considering
the outage of generator at bus 2, is reflected in column 2 of
the table 3. Following several other contingencies
involving nodal power variation/outage, all bus PTDF can
and have been estimated from the base case. This is shown
in table 4 below.
The LODF of any monitored line following the
outage of another line has been expressed as
From DC load flow, the pre-outage flow on L8.
Upon the outage of L6 whose pre-outage flow, the post
outage flow on L8,
This LODF value can be found as the intersection
of the eighth row with the sixth column of table 5
This table contains all LODF for the eleven
transmission lines when monitored with respect to the
outage of any line including itself. The values in this table
can then be used to predict the flow on any transmission
line due to an outage of another line with respect with the
base case operating point.
Estimating Line Flows
If from a reference operating point (base case) of
a power system, it is desired to predict the real power flow
on a monitored transmission line following the outage of
another line, then the sensitivity factor table/matrix for that
network similar to tables 3 and 4 be prepared. What
follows is how to calculate the post contingency line flows
using pre-calculated distribution factors.
Predicting Flow Using PTDF
Following power outage or injected power
variation at a bus, the post contingency real power flow on
any line can be estimated using
Assume that the output of the generator at bus 3 is
increased from 50MW to 100MW and that the slack
generator bus decreased its output in response to generator
3 and the unchanged network load of 300MW. Without
resorting to AC or DC load flows, using PTDF, the real
power flow on any monitored line can be predicted. Let’s
monitor the flow on L4.
Where Monitored transmission line index; Bus where
power is taken added (contingency bus) ; : Bus where
power is adjusted (post-contingency bus) ; Change in
power at bus i ;
And
the pre-contingency flow on line L5
Predicting Flow Using LODF
The LODF for a monitored transmission line on
account of a particular outage is obtained by locating the
monitored line along the rows of the LODF matrix and
then tracing along the row to the appropriate outaged line
column. The post-outage flow on the monitored line can be
gotten using equation
Pre-contingency/pre-outage flow on line before it
was outaged (opened); = Post - Outage flow on line with
line out/open; = Pre-contingency/pre-outage flow on line ,
before line was outaged (opened)
From figure 2, following the outage of line index
6, and and from table 4,
If we desire to know the real power that flows on
a monitored line say line indexed 10,
Table 5 contains the AC and DC load flow results
for the following operating conditions; Base case and Four
Contingency cases (Generator at bus 3 Output variation:
reduction and increment, Outages of generator at bus 2 and
Line L6).
V. CONCLUSION

The justification for the use of DC load flow for
quick estimation of transmission line flows is that its
estimates compare proportionally to those from AC load
flow so that they are effective when applied for
contingency and security analyses. However, the use of
base distribution factors to estimate transmission line flows
from a known operation point yields faster results that
matches in exactness the estimations from DC load flow
analysis. These distribution factors in the form of PTDF
and LODF are calculated and stored for a network and
remains valid for use as long as the network is unmodified
with the addition of a bus, loads, generators or
transmission lines. Consequently, from any known
operating point, the transmission line flow or
loading/overload of any other operation point following
the outage or variation of generator power output or the
contingency of a transmission line may be estimated using
the stored network values of PTDF and LODF. Unlike
transmission flow results derived from AC techniques,
PTDF and LODF flow estimates are not only non iterative
but linear and has the exact value with flows from DC load
flow analysis. Therefore, a quicker, linear and non-
iterative method has been postulated to estimate
transmission line flows from a known operating point with
the slack bus responsible for active power exchanges.
REFERENCES
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Table 5: LODF of monitored lines with respect to line Outages
M C o n t i n g e n t / O u t a g e d L i n e
Line L 1 L 2 L 3 L 4 L 5 L 6 L 7 L 8 L 9 L 1 0 L 1 1
L 1
- 1 0.6353 0.5427 -0.113 -0.503 - 0 . 2 1 -0.122 -0.137 0.0135 0.0096 0.1316
L 2
0.5948 - 1 0.4573 -0.033 0.6121 -0.062 -0.036 - 0 . 0 4 0.004 -0.327 0.0387
L 3
0.4052 0.3647 - 1 0.1458 -0.109 0.2721 0.158 0.1772 -0.017 0.3174 0.1703
L 4
-0.103 -0.0323 0.1783 - 1 0.1242 0.2262 0.4662 - 0 . 4 -0.525 0.1706 0.132
L 5
-0.588 0.7647 -0.1708 0.1591 - 1 0.2969 0.1724 0.1933 -0.019 -0.673 0.1858
L 6
-0.188 -0.0589 0 . 3 2 5 0.2209 0.2264 - 1 0.2394 0.2685 -0.026 0.311 -0.258
L 7
-0.121 -0.0381 0.2102 0.5073 0.1464 0.2667 - 1 -0.199 0.5842 0.2011 0.4433
L 8
-0.118 -0.0369 0.2036 -0.376 0.1418 0.2583 -0.172 - 1 0.4747 0.1948 -0.425

L 9
0.0146 0.0046 -0.0253 -0.625 -0.018 -0.032 0.6382 0.6005 - 1 -0.024 0.5567
L10
0.0065 -0.2353 0.2865 0.1259 -0.388 0.235 0.1365 0.153 -0.015 - 1 -0.147
L11
0.1067 0.0335 -0.1849 0.1172 -0.129 -0.235 0.3618 -0.401 0.4158 -0.177 - 1
Table 6: Pre and Post Contingency Line Loading for AC and DC load flow
B u s
B a s e C a s e Generator 3 Decrease Generator 3 Increase Generator Outage 2 L i n e 6 O u t a g e
Line L i n e Line Flow (MW) Line Flow (MW) F l o w ( M W ) F l o w ( M W ) F l o w ( M W )
Code From-To Limit A C D C A C D C A C D C A C D C A C D C
L 1 1 – 2 1 0 0 62.2 6 0 . 6 5 6 4 . 3 5 6 2 . 6 6 4 1 . 2 5 4 0 . 5 2 8 7 . 6 7 8 4 . 1 8 5 7 . 9 5 5 5 . 9 6
L 2 1 – 4 1 0 0 82.8 7 6 . 6 6 8 4 . 4 9 7 8 . 1 3 6 6 . 3 6 6 1 . 9 2 100.41 9 2 . 4 8 1 . 5 4 7 5 . 2 8
L 3 1 – 5 1 0 0 6 8 6 2 . 6 9 6 9 . 6 9 6 4 . 2 1 5 1 . 3 4 7 . 5 7 8 0 . 5 5 7 3 . 4 2 7 4 . 1 6 6 8 . 7 5
L 4 2 – 3 6 0 14.8 1 3 . 6 8 1 6 . 5 8 1 5 . 3 9 - 3 . 1 8 - 3 . 4 1 2 . 9 4 1 0 . 9 6 2 0 . 3 4 1 8 . 7 2
L 5 2 – 4 6 0 28.9 3 2 . 0 3 2 7 . 6 3 3 0 . 9 5 4 0 . 9 7 4 2 . 8 1 2 . 3 3 1 6 . 4 6 3 5 . 2 3 3 8 . 6 4
L 6 2 – 5 6 0 21.9 2 2 . 2 6 2 2 . 0 5 2 2 . 4 3 2 0 . 9 3 2 0 . 5 5 1 6 . 3 2 1 7 . 3 0 0
L 7 2 – 6 6 0 4 3 4 2 . 6 7 4 4 . 2 3 4 3 . 8 8 3 0 . 9 8 3 0 . 5 6 3 9 . 2 5 3 9 . 4 6 4 9 . 2 7 4 8 . 6 1
L 8 3 – 5 6 0 12.4 1 2 . 5 4 1 1 . 0 9 1 1 . 0 9 2 5 . 9 8 2 6 . 9 8 9 . 9 4 9 . 4 3 1 8 . 5 2 1 8 . 2 9
L 9 3 – 6 6 0 52.2 5 1 . 1 4 5 0 . 3 7 4 9 . 3 7 0 . 8 4 6 9 . 6 2 5 2 . 8 5 5 1 . 5 3 5 1 . 6 3 5 0 . 4 3
L 1 0 4 – 5 6 0 8.21 8 . 6 9 8 . 5 9 9 . 0 9 4 . 5 8 4 . 7 2 8 . 1 4 8 . 8 6 1 3 . 2 3 1 3 . 9 2
L 1 1 5 – 6 6 0 6.63 6 . 1 8 7 . 2 2 6 . 8 2 - 0 . 2 6 - 0 . 1 8 9 . 7 2 9 . 0 1 1 . 2 2 0 . 9 6
T o t a l L o a d 300 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 0
G e n 1 o u t p u t 213 2 0 0 218.54 2 0 5 158.91 1 5 0 268.63 2 5 0 213.65 2 0 0
G e n 2 o u t p u t 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 - - 5 0 5 0
G e n 3 o u t p u t 5 0 5 0 4 5 4 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

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