Prediction Markets and Artificial Intelligence in Concept Testing
- 1. Prediction Markets and Artificial Intelligence in Concept Testing Quester: QUANT + QUAL in a single hybrid design, leveraging AI technology Intengo: Prediction markets to test concepts - FAST Partnering to break through the “not sures” and “idks” for quantitative clarity and real qualitative insight
- 2. HOW WE LOOK AT THINGS
- 3. CRAB RANGOON PIZZA CRAB RANGOON Crab Rangoon base, surimi, green onion, asiago and mozzarella topped with crispy wontons and a sweet chili lattice 10” - $13.99 16” - $20.99
- 4. MAC AND CHEESE PIZZA MAC AND CHEESE Big D’s mac and cheese, mozzarella, cheddar and Parmesan topped with toasted Parmesan breadcrumbs 10” - $13.99 16” - $20.99 Vegetarian
- 5. FONGOLIAN PIZZA FONGOLIAN BEEF Mongolian sauce, sliced beef, roasted red pepper, green pepper and sautéed green onions tossed stir-fry style with mozzarella. 10” - $13.99 16” - $20.99 Gluten-free
- 6. A DIFFERENT QUESTION ABOUT THE PIZZAS CRAB RANGOON Crab Rangoon base, surimi, green onion, asiago and mozzarella topped with crispy wontons and a sweet chili lattice 10” - $13.99 16” - $20.99 MAC AND CHEESE Big D’s mac and cheese, mozzarella, cheddar and Parmesan topped with toasted Parmesan breadcrumbs 10” - $13.99 Vegetarian 16” - $20.99 FONGOLIAN BEEF Mongolian sauce, sliced beef, roasted red pepper, green pepper and sautéed green onions tossed stir-fry style with mozzarella. 10” - $13.99 Gluten-free 16” - $20.99
- 7. SOMETIMES RESEARCH FEELS LIKE TALKING TO A TEENAGER
- 8. WHAT TO DO? ENGAGE THEM A DIFFERENT WAY Skin in the Game
- 9. INTENGO’S PREDICTION MARKET Participants identify which concept will best answer the BUSINESS QUESTION for the TARGET AUDIENCE in an investment game “Which product claim is most likely to influence (the target audience) to purchase the product?” “Target consumers are road warriors – people who are always on the go.” Patented process uses the collective wisdom of crowds
- 10. INVEST IN CONCEPTS BUILD A PORTFOLIO THE PARTICIPANT EXPERIENCE FRAME THE CHALLENGE ADD CONTEXT The Investment Game Follow-up QuestionsScreening & Background
- 11. HOW DO YOU GET EVEN MORE INSIGHT? Artificial Intelligence
- 12. QUALITATIVE CONVERSATIONS: QUESTER’S QUALITATIVE CONVERSATIONS 1X1 ONLINE CONVERSATIONS SOFTWARE MODERATOR
- 13. QUESTER’S AI MODERATOR – HOW IT WORKS WWW.QUESTER.COM/HOWITWORKS
- 14. RESEARCH ON RESEARCH I don’t think it is necessarily a bad concept, it just doesn’t seem to speak for all that Little Debbie stands for … … Freshness yes, but taste and variety and the pride of those fortunate enough to produce these wonderful products. It would be nice to combine this concept with the various faces in the other scheme showing all kinds of people enjoying the fresh treats. Besides emphasizing fresh, show that all kinds of people enjoying the product. Probed OE: Help me understand why this creative concept will be least effective at influencing the most sales of Little Debbie® products. Please be as detailed as possible AVERAGE WORD COUNTS: 16 31 NO PROBING WITH PROBING THE INITIAL RESPONSE … Tells us why the concept is not working, but is soley focused on freshness MISSES KEY DRIVERS – WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY ARE. WITH PROBING WE LEARN… It is important to portray the core LD values – great tasting products people enjoy and pride in making the products THIS MAY BE A VERY SIMPLE TWEAK: Include more visuals of people consuming and enjoying LD products
- 15. RESEARCH ON RESEARCH I don’t think it is necessarily a bad concept, it just doesn’t seem to speak for all that Little Debbie stands for … Probed OE: Help me understand why this creative concept will be least effective at influencing the most sales of Little Debbie® products. Please be as detailed as possible 16 WITH PROBING THE INITIAL RESPONSE: Tells us why the concept is not working, BUT is soley focused on freshness MISSES KEY DRIVERS – WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY ARE AVERAGE WORD COUNT NO PROBING
- 16. RESEARCH ON RESEARCH … Freshness yes, but taste and variety and the pride of those fortunate enough to produce these wonderful products. It would be nice to combine this concept with the various faces in the other scheme showing all kinds of people enjoying the fresh treats. Besides emphasizing fresh, show that all kinds of people enjoying the product. Probed OE: Help me understand why this creative concept will be least effective at influencing the most sales of Little Debbie® products. Please be as detailed as possible 31 AVERAGE WORD COUNT WITH PROBING WITH PROBING WE LEARN … It is important to portray the core LD values – great tasting products people enjoy and pride in making the products This may be a very simple tweak – include more visuals of people consuming and enjoying LD products
- 17. © Copyright 2017 Quester | 17 Probed OE: Help me understand why this creative concept will be least effective at influencing the most sales of Little Debbie® products. Please be as detailed as possible THEMES FROM ORIGINAL RESPONSES THEMES FROM PROBED RESPONSES: Deeper Understanding 46% Doesn’t say enough 25% Dull – nothing grabs attention 16% Not believable 11% Great taste- enjoyment lost 16% Show more people enjoying LD products 10% Freshness is too forced 6% Show more of employees taking pride in their work 13% Freshness overused-tune it out 9% Mass produced – long shelf life RESEARCH ON RESEARCH
- 18. PREDICTION MARKET: WINNING CONCEPTS – RANK ORDER N=350 VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price (a measure of the average price each concept traded at over the prediction market timeframe). All concepts started at $12.50. Product Claim VWAP Power Index Significance All natural formula developed by scientists $18.50 148 Above Average Cool minty flavor packaged in individual servings $17.13 137 Above Average When every detail about you counts $13.88 111 Average Made with 100% organic and wildly grown ingredients that eliminate bad breath $12.25 98 Average When you have to be up close and personal $10.25 82 Below Average A drinkable mouth freshening solution $10.13 81 Below Average Made with 100% organic mint $9.25 74 Below Average For a kissable mouth $8.38 67 Below Average
- 19. PREDICTION MARKET: HOW POLARIZING ARE THEY? 26 24 18 10 6 6 6 4 7 -3 -5 -16 -8 -6 -16 -21 -25 -32 23 19 2 2 0 -10 -15 -21 -25 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 All natural formula developed by scientists Cool minty flavor packaged in individual servings When every detail about you counts Made with 100% organic and wildly grown ingredients that eliminate bad breath When you have to be up close and personal A drinkable mouth freshening solution Made with 100% organic mint For a kissable mouth Comfortable Baby, Happy Mom Best Worst
- 20. QUALITATIVE STATEMENT REACTION “Eliminates” is helpful but “organic and wildly grown” is potentially polarizing “ELIMINATES BAD BREATH” “WILDLY GROWN” BLUE: Primarily positive reaction ORANGE: Mixed reaction RED: Primarily negative reaction 41% ORGANIC & 10% WILDLY GROWN Conveys to consumers product is natural (23%) with no chemicals (8%) or other artificial ingredients (3%) 13% SAFE & HEALTHY TO USE The idea of no chemicals or artificial ingredients leads them to believe it’ll be safe or even healthier 8% UNSURE ABOUT ORGANIC & 6% UNSURE ABOUT WILDLY GROWN Wildly grown is vague/confusing – can be seen as marketing “hype” or they feel it will make the product expensive; some question the effectiveness or taste based on negative experiences with “natural” products 23% BAD BREATH & 18% NOT COVER UP Eliminating the bad breath rather than covering it up helps provide the reason to believe why it will provide long-lasting fresh breath (7%) rather than just “a couple of minutes” like mints; leads them to believe it’ll treat or solve the problem Made with 100% organic and wildly grown ingredients that eliminate bad breath, compared to gum and mints that just temporarily cover it up.
- 21. NEW PRODUCT CONCEPTS BRANDING PLATFORMS NAMES CLAIMS/TAGLINES IDENTIFIES WHICH CONCEPT(S) ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO: BE PURCHASED/INFLUENCE, ETC. COLLECTS RATIONALE FOR CHOICES IN CONSUMERS’ OWN LANGUAGE PACKAGING DESIGNS MARKETING MESSAGES (ads, product descriptions, positioning statements, signage) IDENTIFYING OPTIMAL CONSUMER SEGMENTS A HYBRID DESIGN IDEAL FOR SCREENING AND TESTING ABOUT THE METHODOLOGIES
- 22. FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Tim Hoskins President, Quester 515.509.1975 Tim.Hoskins@Quester.com Quester.com 6500 University Ave Suite 205 Des Moines, IA 50324 Toll free: 1.877.588.5502 @QuesterMR @TimHoskins https://www.linkedin.com/company/questermarketresearch/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-hoskins-quester/