Probability
- 1. Christiaan Huygens Probability By Narendra Chauhan
- 2. Probability 1. Introduction to Probability 2. Applications 3. Experiments 4. Counting Rules 5. Assigning Probabilities
- 3. Introduction to Probability Probability : - is a measure of the expectation that an event will occur or a statement is true. Probabilities are given a value between 0 (will not occur) and 1 (will occur). The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur.
- 4. Introduction to Probability Before the middle of the seventeenth century, the term 'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and Richard Jeffrey was applied in that sense, univocally, to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such as sensible people would undertake or hold, in the circumstances
- 5. Applications Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade on financial markets. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation
- 6. Experiments Expriment Exprimental Outcomes Toss a coin Win,lose,tie Roll of die Purchase, No purchase Play a Cricket game Head / tail Conduct a sales call 1,2,3,4,5,6
- 7. Counting Being able to identify and count the experimental outcomes is a necessary step in assigning probabilities. Counting Rules. 1.Multiple-step experiment’s 2.Combinations 3.Permutations
- 8. Counting 1.Multiple-step experiment’s The Multiple – step experiment’s is first counting rule applies to multiple-step Experiment’s
- 9. Counting 2. Combinations A second useful counting rule allows one to count the number of experiment mental outcomes when the experiment involves selecting r objects from a (usually Larger)Set of n objects. it is called the counting rule for combinations.
- 10. Counting 3. Permutations A third counting rule that is sometimes useful is the counting rule for permutation. It allows one compute the number of experimental outcomes when n object are to be selected from a set of n object where the order of selection is important the same r objects selected in a different order are considered a different experimental outcome
- 11. Assigning Probabilities Now let us see how probabilities can be assigning to experimenat outcomes. The three approaches most frequently 1.Classical Method 2.Relatvie frequency Method 3.Subjective Method
- 12. Assigning Probabilities 1.Classical Method The Classical Method of Assigning probabilities is appropriate When all the experimental outcome are equally
- 13. Assigning Probabilities 2.Relatvie frequency Method The Relative frequency Method of assigning probabilities is appropriate when Data are available to estimate the proportion of the time the experimental outcome Will occur if the experiment is repeated a large number of time
- 14. Thank you