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The Egyptian Center for
Economic Studies (ECES) &
The American Chamber of
Commerce in Egypt
Progress in a
Changing
World
Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior Vice President
World Bank Group @wbg2030
worldbank.org/sdgs
0
"‫الحضارات‬ ‫متغيرات‬ ‫مع‬ ‫التغير‬ ‫وجوب‬ ‫على‬ ‫محتوية‬ ‫التقدم‬ ‫فكرة‬ ‫إن‬
‫ذلك‬ ‫ومعنى‬ ،‫أعلى‬ ‫ھو‬ ‫ما‬ ‫نحو‬ ‫الحياة‬ ‫صورة‬ ‫ينقل‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫والتطور‬ ‫المتعاقبة‬
‫مستندة‬ ‫قوائمه‬ ‫تجيء‬ ‫أن‬ ‫االھتمام‬ ‫ھذا‬ ‫ينفي‬ ‫وال‬ ،‫بالمصير‬ ‫االھتمام‬ ‫وجوب‬
‫بمث‬ ‫الحاضرة‬ ‫حياتنا‬ ‫في‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫أال‬ ‫على‬ ،‫السلف‬ ‫لنا‬ ‫تركه‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫تراثنا‬ ‫على‬‫ابة‬
‫على‬ ‫نجاوزھا‬ ‫ابتداء‬ ‫نقطة‬ ‫أيدينا‬ ‫بين‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫بل‬ ،‫عندھا‬ ‫نقف‬ ‫التي‬ ‫النھاية‬
‫مأمون‬ ‫ومستقبل‬ ‫حي‬ ‫حاضر‬ ‫مستلزمات‬".
‫السنين‬ ‫حصاد‬ ‫كتاب‬ ‫من‬‫للفيلسوف‬‫الدكتور‬ ‫المصري‬/‫محمود‬ ‫نجيب‬ ‫زكي‬
1
Addressing Global Megatrends &
Challenges
Fragility and violence
Shifts in the global economy
Climate and resources
Commodity cycles
Urbanization
Source: World Bank Forward Look, September 2017
Demographic transitions
Debate about globalization
Technological disruptions
2
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
 High fertility
rate, low life
expectancy
 Declining
fertility rate,
increasing life
expectancy
 Fertility rate
approaching
replacement
rate,
increased life
expectancy
 Low fertility
rate, high life
expectancy
Demographic shifts
The world can be divided into four major demographic
groupsMost of the global population lives in early- and late-dividend countries and while 78
percent of global growth was from late- and post-dividend countries, 90 percent of global
poverty is in pre- and early-dividend countries
* World Bank Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016
Share of global GDP growth and poverty,
2000-14 (percent)
3
Demographic Groups Key Challenges
Pre-Dividend countries Lagging in human development outcomes
Early-Dividend countries
Job creation for rapidly growing share of working-
age people, mostly youth
Late-Dividend countries
Populations beginning to age; potential slowdown in
growth of labor supply
Post-Dividend countries Adapting to aging to maintain living standards
Countries at all stages of development can harness demographic transitions as a development opportunity
Demographic shifts
Key challenges for each group
4
Source: World Bank, 2017
Urbanization
96% of increase in developing country population
between now and 2030 will be in urban areas
Proportion of population living in urban areas, 1960-2011
5
Source: World Bank, 2017
Urbanization
If urbanization is not managed properly, slums emerge
Proportion of urban population living in slums, 1990-2010
6
Source: Building Resilience report, World Bank, 2014
Losses due to disasters worldwide (1980–2012) Number of disasters worldwide (1980–2012)
Climate change and resources:
The total number of disasters and losses has been rising,
1980–2012Global disaster losses from 1980–2012
7
Source: Building Resilience report, World Bank, 2014
Climate change and resources:
Process of integrating climate
resilience into development Index of risk preparation across countries
8
Commodity price indexes, annual
Commodity cycles:
Source: Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank, 2017
9
The rate of advancement is unprecedented
Source: GSMA Intelligence (2017), World Bank – World Development Indicator (2017)
Technological disruption:
10
Half of the world’s population is not benefiting from the digital
economy
Source: GSMA Intelligence (2017), World Bank – World Development Indicator (2017)
See Annex, pp20-24 for additional data on the emerging digital divide and trends in the digital sector
Technological disruption:
Source: Atul Mehta, World Bank Group, 2017 11
Technological Disruption:
Not just any digital connectivity will do
Voice
Simple
Data
Broadband Faster
Broadband
5G
IOT
1 Peak data rate for GSM/GPRS, latest Evolved EDGE has peak DL data rates capable of up to 1.2 Mbps; 2 Peak data rate for HSPA+ DL 3-carrier CA; HSPA+
specification includes additional potential CA+ use of multiple antennas, but no announcements to date; 3 Peak data rate for LTE Advanced Cat 6 with 20 + 20 MHz DL
CA; LTE specification includes additional potential CA + Additional use of multiple antennas, but no announcements to date
Source: Disruptive Tech Forum, World Bank, 2017
12
Source: World Bank, 2017
Violent conflict is increasing and becoming more complex
Fragility and violence:
Number of people killed by violent conflict Number of conflicts, by type
Map of terror attacks in 2016
Source: Ian Bremmer, 2017
Source: World Bank, 2017
Violent deaths and conflicts in Africa
Source: World Bank Regional Update on Africa, 2017 13
Refugees and forced displacement
Fragility and violence:
A threefold crisis: The global forcibly displaced population
The crisis primarily affects the developing world
Source: Forcibly Displaced, World Bank, 2017
14
Source: Forcibly Displaced, World Bank, 2017
Refugees and forced displacement
Fragility and violence:
The crisis primarily affects the developing world
15
Migration
Fragility and violence
Refugees are only a small share of people on the move
16
Shifts and changes in the global economy
Growth is picking up but is still lower than the pre-crisis averag
Source: World Economic Outlook and Sean Nolan, 2017
Real GDP Growth, 2013-2018
(Percent, PPPGDP weighted averages)
17
Public Debt, 2007-2017
(Percent of GDP, weighted averages)
Source: World Economic Outlook and Sean Nolan, 2017
Shifts and changes in the global
economy
Public debt burdens are rising and growth of international
trade is slowing
Import Volume, Goods and Services, 2000-2016
(Constant prices, Index 2000=100)
18
Global Inequality, 1988-2013
Inequality within countries is rising
Source World Bank 2017 and Sean Nolan, 2017 19
Source: Adapted from Branko Milanovic and Christoph Lakner, 2013
Relative gain in real per capita income by global income level, 1988-2008
Although inequality is rising within
countries, it is declining across the
global population
The largest
negative effect is
on the lower and
middle classes in
developed
economies
20
Source: Braga, 2017
The share of US pre-tax income accruing to the bottom 50
percent and top one percent of income earners, 1962-2014
Inequality within countries is rising
USA – current account % GDP USA – Employment in manufacturing –
the role of technology
Blaming international trade for inequality is a
mistake
21
Is globalization retrenching?
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Trade Capital Information People
Global Gross Financial Flows, 1990-2016 (percent of
world GDP)
Depth of Globalization: Change vs 2005
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Merchandise Trade % of GDP FDI Flows % of Investment
Trade and FDI depth through 2016
Source: Braga, 2017
Source: Ghemawat, 2017 Source: Ghemawat, 2017 22
The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980–
2016, in black, at three-year intervals
Reflections on the new global economy:
multipolarity
1980
1989
1998
2007
2016
2049
Source: Danny Quah, 2011
Evolution of the earth’s economic center of
gravity: 1 CE to 2025
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012
23
Source: Maha Kamel, 2017
Reflections on the new global economy:
multipolarity
Eastern Europe (16)
24
Solutions:
What to Avoid and What to
Pursue
25
1. Dealing with joblessness by relying on the civil service;
2. Underpaying civil servants compared to the private sector;
3. Cutting fiscal deficits by sacrificing public investment
in infrastructure;
4. Subsidizing energy except for very limited subsidies
to highly vulnerable sections of the population;
5. Open ended protection for specific sectors;
6. Imposing administrative price controls;
7. Banning exports;
8. Exchange rate misalignment;
9. Resisting urbanization/underinvesting in infrastructure;
10.Ignoring environmental implications;
11.Poorly regulating the Banking sector and excessive interference;
12.Measuring educational progress solely by higher enrollments and ignoring
the quality of education
Solutions:
Avoid bad ideas
The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 2008 26
Solutions:
The policy ingredients of growth strategies
The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 2008
A list of common policies between countries with 7+ % growth over 25+ years
27
19801960 1970 1996
5,000
10,000

1953
Per Capita Income ($)
1990

1945 1998 2007
15,000
2008
20,000
2011
65 79
12,197
7,355
1,000
21,695
1997-98
Financial
Crisis
Global
Financial
Crisis
 Joining
OECD

1948
Foundation
of Republic
of Korea
(1948)
22,489
Receiving Foreign Aid
Korean
War
(1950-53)
The Korean Example:
From LDC to OECD member
28
28
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1 Iron Ore Textiles Textiles Electronics Semiconductors
2
Tungsten
Ore
Plywood Electronics Textiles Computers
3 Raw Silk Wigs
Iron and Steel
Products
Footwear Automobiles
4
Anthracit
e
Iron Ore Footwear
Iron and
Steel
Products
Petrochemical
Products
5 Cuttlefish Electronics Ships Ships Ships
<Changes of Export Products by Period>
Annual Export
Increase 43.5%
(62-76)
The Korean Example:
Growth of trade
29
The Korean Example:
Role of government
30
Changes within one generation
31
World Bank
twin goals
*End extreme poverty
*Boost shared prosperity within
sustainability framework
Invest in three areas:
•*Human
development
•*Inclusive growth
and infrastructure
•*Resilience
Sustainable
Development
Goals
•*People *Planet *Partnership
• *Prosperity *Peace
*17 goals
*169 targets
OECD
Accession
o*Commitment to pluralist democracy
based on rule of law and respect of
human rights
o*Adherence to open & transparent
market economy principles
o*Shared goal of sustainable
development
Undergo in-depth
reviews by technical
OECD committees
There are multiple paths of sustainable
development
32
The 2030 Agenda and the
Sustainable Development Goals
33
An Opportunity for Transformation:
From MDGs to SDGs
The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national
development path
MDGs
(2000-2015)
SDGs
(2016-2030)
Goals 8 17
Targets 21 169
Indicators 60 ~231
Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental
Scope Developing Countries Universal
34
Looking Back: MDG Progress
By number of countries
Source: World Bank data, staff calculations
71
35
40
67
38
6
15
67
36
11
8
12
10
18
9
3
5
7
7
4
11
7
16
23
11
2
7
2
13
17
11
37
28
20
12
14
27
52
40
28
34
77
88
40
58
27
33
25
22
2
2
8
19
23
MDG 1.1 - Extreme Poverty
MDG 1.9 Under-nourishment
MDG 2.1 - Primary Completion
MDG 3.1 - Education Gender Parity
MDG 4.1 - Under-5 Mortality
MDG 4.2 - Infant Mortality
MDG 5.1 - Maternal Mortality
MDG 7.8 - Improved Water
MDG 7.9 - Improved Sanitation
Target Met Sufficient Progress Insufficient Progress
Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data
35
Progress on the MDGs
Share Of Global Poverty
51%
0%
4%
30%
15%
1990
East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Global poverty:
1.96 billion
37.1 % of global
population
12%
1%
4%
33%
50%
2015
Global poverty:
702 million
9.6% of global
population
36
An Opportunity for Transformation:
Lessons learned from the field
• Improve coordination and ensure the timeliness and
effectiveness of policy instruments
• Localize implementation and prioritize engagement of
communities and community mobilization
• Increase efficient allocation of resources
• Recognize and identify interrelatedness of
development goals at the onset
• Ensure strong government involvement
• Promote quality data
• Increase cross-institutional collaboration
• Bridge the humanitarian and development agendas
Based on report: “Transitioning from the MDGs to the SDGs” jointly written by the World Bank Group and the UN Development Programme
37
OECD Accession
38
Coordination of development agendas
The Colombian Example
Active national agendas determine actions related to at least 146 SDG targets - 86%
Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation
NAT’L DEV PLAN National Development
Plan 2014-2018
39
OECD Accession
The Colombian Example
1. Investment Committee;
2. Working Group on Bribery in International
Business Transactions;
3. Corporate Governance Committee;
4. Committee on Financial Markets;
5. Insurance and Private Pensions Committee;
6. Competition Committee;
7. Committee on Fiscal Affairs;
8. Environment Policy Committee;
9. Chemicals Committee;
10. Public Governance Committee;
11. Regulatory Policy Committee;
12. Territorial Development Policy Committee;
13. Committee on Statistics;
14. Economic and Development Review
Committee;
15. Education Policy Committee;
16. Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Committee;
17. Health Committee;
18. Trade Committee and the Working Party on
Export Credits;
19. Committee for Agriculture;
20. Fisheries Committee;
21. Committee for Scientific and Technological
Policy;
22. Committee for Information, Computer and
Communications Policy;
23. Committee on Consumer Policy
In order to allow Council to take an informed decision on the accession of Colombia, Colombia
will undergo in-depth reviews by the following technical OECD committees which will provide a
formal opinion to the Council:
Source: Roadmap for the Accession of Colombia to the OECD Convention, 2013 40
World Bank Twin Goals
41
Data:
Crucial to understand how trends are shifting
42
SDG Interlinkages and Data Visualization
The case of Japan:
Japan’s goals interlinked to SDG 1
43
Financing sustainable development:
The key components
44Source: World Bank Group, 2015
Financing sustainable development
$24.4
trillion in
low-yield
government
securities
More than
$10 trillion
invested in
negative
interest rate
bonds
$8 trillion
sitting in
cash
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Annual Average Infrastructure Investment
until 2030
How much is out there?
45
$ Trillion
Financing sustainable development
Private sector engagement is critical
1990 2015
$ BILLIONS
FDI
OFFICIAL
DEVELOPMENT
ASSISTANCE
Soaring Private Capital Flows,
Flat Official Development
Assistance
Source: IFC Presentation to Center for Global Development, February 2017
46
PUBLIC & CONCESSIONAL FINANCING,
INCLUDING SUB-SOVEREIGN
• Public finance (incl. national development banks and
domestic SWF)
• MDBs and DFIs
COMMERCIAL
FINANCING
PUBLIC AND CONCESSIONAL
RESOURCES FOR RISK
INSTRUMENTS
& CREDIT ENHANCEMENTS
• Guarantees
• First Loss
UPSTREAM REFORMS
& MARKET FAILURES
• Country and Sector Policies
• Regulations and Pricing
• Institutions and Capacity
3
4
2
Financing sustainable development
Private sector engagement needs to increase
Can commercial financing be cost-
effectively mobilized for sustainable
investment? If not…
Can upstream reforms be
put in place to address
market failures? If not…
Can risk instruments & credit
enhancements cost-effectively
cover remaining risks? If not…
Can development
objectives be resolved with
scarce public financing?
1
47
Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017
12 largest business themes in a world economy heading for the SDGs
Financing sustainable development
Opportunities for the private sector
48
The SDGs open up US$12 trillion of market opportunities in four
economic opportunities:
• These economic systems represent around 60 percent of the real
economy and are critical to meeting the SDGs.
• To capture these opportunities in full, businesses need to pursue social
and environmental sustainability as avidly as they pursue market share
and shareholder value.
• If a critical mass of companies joins us in doing this now, they will
become an unstoppable force.
• If they don’t, the costs and uncertainty of unsustainable development
could swell until there is no viable world in which to do business.
Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017
Financing sustainable development
Opportunities for the private sector
49
Source: IMF, 2013
Main Elements of SWF Policy
Financing sustainable development
Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds
50
Financing sustainable development
Role of financial inclusion
51
Financing sustainable development
Role of savings
Savings, disaggregated by region (in % of GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
World Egypt, Arab
Rep.
East Asia &
Pacific
Europe &
Central Asia
Latin America
& Caribbean
Middle East &
North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators. Staff Calculations. 2017
Financing sustainable development:
Role of savings
•Influence savings
behavior:
introduce savings
accounts for all
students
•Improve real
income through:
•increasing total factor
productivity,
•increasing labor
efficiency, and
•maintaining price
stability
•Reform public
social security
•Enhance
commercial
insurance systems
•Mobilize
digital/biometric ID
systems
•Realize the
potential of fintech
Key drivers of
domestic
savings
53
54
Financing sustainable development:
“Digitization” is disrupting every part of financial services
54
Source: World Bank Group, 2017
Source: FSB, Financial Stability Implications of FinTech, July 2017
55
Financing sustainable development:
Fintech will become critical
55
The practice of sustainable development
INVEST IN PEOPLE INVEST IN INCLUSIVE GROWTH INVEST IN
RESILIENCE
•Fragility &
Conflict
•Climate and
weather shocks
•Pandemics
Sources: World Bank Group, 2017
•Early childhood
development
•Gender equality
•Skills for jobs
•Equal
opportunities
•Infrastructure
•Roads
•Energy
•Sustainable
•Greening growth
•Water
management
•Private sector
•Job creation
Achieve the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared
prosperity
56
Invest in people:
Learning to realize
education’s promise
Sources: World Bank Group, 2017
The practice
of
sustainable
development
57
Invest in people:
Sources: World Bank Group, 2017
Learning to realize education’s promise
The three dimensions
of the learning crisis
How to realize
education’s promise:
Three policy
responses
“If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees. If
your plan is for one hundred years, educate children.”
–Kuan Chung (7th Century BC).
Still there are reasons for hope
• Learning outcomes are poor: low levels, high
inequality, slow progress
• Schools are failing learners
• Systems are failing schools
• Assess learning – to make it a serious goal
• Act on evidence – to make schools work for all learners
• Align actors – to make the whole system work for learning
The practice of sustainable
development
58
Sources: World Bank Group, 2017
It’s more complicated than it looks: people act in reaction to
the choices of others throughout the system
Invest in people:
Learning to realize education’s promise
The practice of sustainable
development
59
Sources: World Bank Group, 2017
Coherence and alignment toward learning
Invest in people:
Learning to realize education’s promise
The practice of sustainable
development
60
Reduce global maternal mortality
ratio
End preventable deaths of
newborns and children under 5
years of age
End the epidemics of AIDS,
tuberculosis, malaria, neglected
tropical diseases; combat
hepatitis, water-borne diseases,
other communicable diseases
Ensure universal access to sexual
and reproductive health-care
services
Reduce premature mortality from
noncommunicable diseases
Strengthen prevention and
treatment of substance abuse
Halve global deaths and injuries
from road traffic accidents
Achieve universal health coverage
Substantially reduce number of
deaths and illnesses from hazardous
chemicals and air, water and soil
pollution and contamination
SDG 3: Ensure Healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages
Invest in people:
Health
The practice of sustainable
development
61
Source: World Bank Group, 2015 and Alaa Hamed, 2015
Invest in people:
Universal Health Coverage (UHC)
The Two Goals of Universal Health Coverage
Service delivery: By 2030,
everyone has access to
essential health services
Financial risk protection: by
2030, no one is pushed into
or kept in poverty by paying
for health care
Three Dimensions to Improving UHC
The practice of sustainable
development
62
Sources: World Bank: Social Protection Teams from various regions + ASPIRE
Social Protection
Social Safety Nets/Social
Assistance
(Non contributory)
To prevent and protect from risks
and shocks
Social Insurance
(Contributory)
To ensure adequate living standards
in the face of shocks and life changes
• Unconditional cash transfers (UCT)
• Conditional cash transfers (CCT)
• Food and in-kind programs
• School feeding
• Public works and food for works
• Non-contributory social pensions
• Fee waivers and targeted subsidies
• Social services
Labor Market Programs
(Contributory and non
contributory)
(To promote labor inclusion and
reintegration)
Main Elements of Social Protection
Invest in people:
Social protection and jobs
The practice of sustainable
development
63
Sources: World Bank: Social Protection Teams from various regions + ASPIRE
20141997
Invest in people:
Social protection and jobs
Conditional Cash Transfer coverage has expanded rapidly across
the world
The practice of sustainable
development
64
Source: KPMG 2017
Natural disaster risk profile
The practice of sustainable
developmentInvest in resilience
65
Invest in inclusive growth:
Each industrial revolution shifts the manufacturing
opportunities and patterns of specialization
Industrial revolutions and shifts in
manufacturing specialization, 1784–present
Source: © Shutterstock. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse.
Source: Trouble in the Making? The future of manufacturing-led development, World Bank, 2017
Three “C”s determine
the feasibility of
success in export-led
manufacturing:
• Competitiveness
• Capabilities
• Connectedness
The practice of sustainable
development
66
Invest in inclusive growth:
Harnessing technology and the digital dividend
Source: Adapted from World Economic Forum, 2017
The practice of sustainable
development
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Telephone
(1878)
Mobile
(1979)
Internet
(1990)
Facebook
(2004)
Whatsapp
(2009)
Instagram
(2010)1878
1979
1990
2004
2009
2010
Number of years to reach 100 million users
67
Source: The Wall Street Journal, 1998
Invest in inclusive growth:
Harnessing technology and the digital dividend
The practice of sustainable
development
68
Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation
69Source: Online sources
Source: Dotmsr
Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation
70
Source: Cirera; Maloney, The Innovation Paradox, 2017
The Capability to Innovate in 1900
Drives Income Levels Today
The Capabilities Escalator
Leapfrogging Disruptive Innovation
Source: Dassault Systemes, 2017
Source: CodigoDelSur, 2017
Invest in inclusive growth:
Harnessing technology and the digital dividend
The practice of sustainable
development
71
Source: New Growth Models, World Economic Forum, 2014
Invest in inclusive growth: Dashboard for inclusive,
sustainable, and multidimensional growth
The practice of sustainable
development
72
Implementation Happens at the
Local Level
73
Source: Data calculations from local government statistics
86 provinces have a
population of over 10
million
78 countries have a
population of under 5
million
181 provinces have a
population of over 5
million
Assessing social risk and its mitigation should be conducted
at the local level
*Analysis conducted on developing countries
The practice of sustainable
development
74
Source: Municipal Finances Handbook: Managing Local Expenditures, Morrell and Kopanyi
1. Preschool education
2. Primary and secondary school
3. Health care
4. Social assistance and poverty alleviation
5. Public order and civil protection
6. Infrastructure and public services
7. Environment protection
8. Social, cultural, recreational expenditures
9. Local economic development
10.Social housing
11.Urban development
12.Civil security
13.Transfer to sub-local government entities
14.(subsidies, grants, equity, in-kind)
15.Loan repayment
16.Interest charges
17.Guarantees called (paid by the municipality)
Sample Municipal
Budget
1. Property tax (rates) on land and/or buildings
2. Tax on the transfer of immovable property
3. Tax on motor vehicles
4. Local sales tax and/or tax on the sale of local products (or
surcharge)
5. Tax on local businesses and services
6. Tax on electricity consumption (surcharge)
7. Tax on nonmotorized vehicles
8. Tax on tourism, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment
9. Tolls on roads, bridges, etc., within the limits of the local
government
10. Charges for public works and public utilities such as waste
collection, drainage, sewerage, and water supply
11. Charges for markets and rents for market stalls
12. Charges for the use of bus stations and taxi parks
13. Fees for approval of building plans and erection and re-erection
of buildings
14. Fees for fairs, agricultural shows, cattle fairs, industrial
exhibitions, tournaments, and other public events
15. Fees for licensing of businesses, professions, and vocations
16. Fees for other licenses or permits and penalties or fines for
violations
17. Fees for advertisement
18. Fees on sales of animals in cattle markets
19. Fees for registration and certification of births, marriages, and
deaths
20. Fees for education and health facilities established or maintained
by the local government
21. Fees for other specific services rendered by the local government
22. Rent from land, buildings, equipment, machinery, and vehicles
23. Surpluses from local commercial enterprises
Expenses Revenues
75
Localization of Urban Development:
The case of China
Localization
of Urban
Development
in China
Reforming land management and
institutions
Creating a mobile and versatile labor
force with equal access to a common
standard of public services
Placing urban finances on a more
sustainable footing while creating financial
discipline for local governments
Improve the revenue base
of local governments by
mainstreaming a property
tax on housing
Improve the
intergovernmental grants
system
Establish an explicit
framework for local
government transactions
Reform the financial sector
to enhance fiscal discipline
of local governments
Reforming urban planning and design
Managing environmental pressures
Improving governance at the local level
Timing, sequencing, and monitoring
76
Localization of Urban Development:
Kenya:
A government funded drought
insurance program brings satellite
based insurance to Kenyan pastoralists
and farmers using mPesa.
Indonesia:
A program is being
implemented to enhance the
capacity of local
governments to improve
efficiency and effectiveness
of local public spending.
Also implemented the PNPM
program: community driven
development
U.K. Midlands
Successful locally owned
businesses help develop
local markets, create
innovation, success and
redistribution in a self-
reinforcing cycle
Colombia:
77
Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation
78
Mahmoud Mohieldin
Senior VP
Thank You
worldbankgroup.org/sdgs
Follow us on twitter @WBG2030
Mahmoud-Mohieldin on
7
9

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Progress in a Changing World

  • 1. The Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES) & The American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt Progress in a Changing World Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group @wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs 0
  • 2. "‫الحضارات‬ ‫متغيرات‬ ‫مع‬ ‫التغير‬ ‫وجوب‬ ‫على‬ ‫محتوية‬ ‫التقدم‬ ‫فكرة‬ ‫إن‬ ‫ذلك‬ ‫ومعنى‬ ،‫أعلى‬ ‫ھو‬ ‫ما‬ ‫نحو‬ ‫الحياة‬ ‫صورة‬ ‫ينقل‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫والتطور‬ ‫المتعاقبة‬ ‫مستندة‬ ‫قوائمه‬ ‫تجيء‬ ‫أن‬ ‫االھتمام‬ ‫ھذا‬ ‫ينفي‬ ‫وال‬ ،‫بالمصير‬ ‫االھتمام‬ ‫وجوب‬ ‫بمث‬ ‫الحاضرة‬ ‫حياتنا‬ ‫في‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫أال‬ ‫على‬ ،‫السلف‬ ‫لنا‬ ‫تركه‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫تراثنا‬ ‫على‬‫ابة‬ ‫على‬ ‫نجاوزھا‬ ‫ابتداء‬ ‫نقطة‬ ‫أيدينا‬ ‫بين‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫بل‬ ،‫عندھا‬ ‫نقف‬ ‫التي‬ ‫النھاية‬ ‫مأمون‬ ‫ومستقبل‬ ‫حي‬ ‫حاضر‬ ‫مستلزمات‬". ‫السنين‬ ‫حصاد‬ ‫كتاب‬ ‫من‬‫للفيلسوف‬‫الدكتور‬ ‫المصري‬/‫محمود‬ ‫نجيب‬ ‫زكي‬ 1
  • 3. Addressing Global Megatrends & Challenges Fragility and violence Shifts in the global economy Climate and resources Commodity cycles Urbanization Source: World Bank Forward Look, September 2017 Demographic transitions Debate about globalization Technological disruptions 2
  • 4. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012  High fertility rate, low life expectancy  Declining fertility rate, increasing life expectancy  Fertility rate approaching replacement rate, increased life expectancy  Low fertility rate, high life expectancy Demographic shifts The world can be divided into four major demographic groupsMost of the global population lives in early- and late-dividend countries and while 78 percent of global growth was from late- and post-dividend countries, 90 percent of global poverty is in pre- and early-dividend countries * World Bank Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 Share of global GDP growth and poverty, 2000-14 (percent) 3
  • 5. Demographic Groups Key Challenges Pre-Dividend countries Lagging in human development outcomes Early-Dividend countries Job creation for rapidly growing share of working- age people, mostly youth Late-Dividend countries Populations beginning to age; potential slowdown in growth of labor supply Post-Dividend countries Adapting to aging to maintain living standards Countries at all stages of development can harness demographic transitions as a development opportunity Demographic shifts Key challenges for each group 4
  • 6. Source: World Bank, 2017 Urbanization 96% of increase in developing country population between now and 2030 will be in urban areas Proportion of population living in urban areas, 1960-2011 5
  • 7. Source: World Bank, 2017 Urbanization If urbanization is not managed properly, slums emerge Proportion of urban population living in slums, 1990-2010 6
  • 8. Source: Building Resilience report, World Bank, 2014 Losses due to disasters worldwide (1980–2012) Number of disasters worldwide (1980–2012) Climate change and resources: The total number of disasters and losses has been rising, 1980–2012Global disaster losses from 1980–2012 7
  • 9. Source: Building Resilience report, World Bank, 2014 Climate change and resources: Process of integrating climate resilience into development Index of risk preparation across countries 8
  • 10. Commodity price indexes, annual Commodity cycles: Source: Commodity Markets Outlook, World Bank, 2017 9
  • 11. The rate of advancement is unprecedented Source: GSMA Intelligence (2017), World Bank – World Development Indicator (2017) Technological disruption: 10
  • 12. Half of the world’s population is not benefiting from the digital economy Source: GSMA Intelligence (2017), World Bank – World Development Indicator (2017) See Annex, pp20-24 for additional data on the emerging digital divide and trends in the digital sector Technological disruption: Source: Atul Mehta, World Bank Group, 2017 11
  • 13. Technological Disruption: Not just any digital connectivity will do Voice Simple Data Broadband Faster Broadband 5G IOT 1 Peak data rate for GSM/GPRS, latest Evolved EDGE has peak DL data rates capable of up to 1.2 Mbps; 2 Peak data rate for HSPA+ DL 3-carrier CA; HSPA+ specification includes additional potential CA+ use of multiple antennas, but no announcements to date; 3 Peak data rate for LTE Advanced Cat 6 with 20 + 20 MHz DL CA; LTE specification includes additional potential CA + Additional use of multiple antennas, but no announcements to date Source: Disruptive Tech Forum, World Bank, 2017 12
  • 14. Source: World Bank, 2017 Violent conflict is increasing and becoming more complex Fragility and violence: Number of people killed by violent conflict Number of conflicts, by type Map of terror attacks in 2016 Source: Ian Bremmer, 2017 Source: World Bank, 2017 Violent deaths and conflicts in Africa Source: World Bank Regional Update on Africa, 2017 13
  • 15. Refugees and forced displacement Fragility and violence: A threefold crisis: The global forcibly displaced population The crisis primarily affects the developing world Source: Forcibly Displaced, World Bank, 2017 14
  • 16. Source: Forcibly Displaced, World Bank, 2017 Refugees and forced displacement Fragility and violence: The crisis primarily affects the developing world 15
  • 17. Migration Fragility and violence Refugees are only a small share of people on the move 16
  • 18. Shifts and changes in the global economy Growth is picking up but is still lower than the pre-crisis averag Source: World Economic Outlook and Sean Nolan, 2017 Real GDP Growth, 2013-2018 (Percent, PPPGDP weighted averages) 17
  • 19. Public Debt, 2007-2017 (Percent of GDP, weighted averages) Source: World Economic Outlook and Sean Nolan, 2017 Shifts and changes in the global economy Public debt burdens are rising and growth of international trade is slowing Import Volume, Goods and Services, 2000-2016 (Constant prices, Index 2000=100) 18
  • 20. Global Inequality, 1988-2013 Inequality within countries is rising Source World Bank 2017 and Sean Nolan, 2017 19
  • 21. Source: Adapted from Branko Milanovic and Christoph Lakner, 2013 Relative gain in real per capita income by global income level, 1988-2008 Although inequality is rising within countries, it is declining across the global population The largest negative effect is on the lower and middle classes in developed economies 20
  • 22. Source: Braga, 2017 The share of US pre-tax income accruing to the bottom 50 percent and top one percent of income earners, 1962-2014 Inequality within countries is rising USA – current account % GDP USA – Employment in manufacturing – the role of technology Blaming international trade for inequality is a mistake 21
  • 23. Is globalization retrenching? 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trade Capital Information People Global Gross Financial Flows, 1990-2016 (percent of world GDP) Depth of Globalization: Change vs 2005 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Merchandise Trade % of GDP FDI Flows % of Investment Trade and FDI depth through 2016 Source: Braga, 2017 Source: Ghemawat, 2017 Source: Ghemawat, 2017 22
  • 24. The world’s economic center of gravity, 1980– 2016, in black, at three-year intervals Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity 1980 1989 1998 2007 2016 2049 Source: Danny Quah, 2011 Evolution of the earth’s economic center of gravity: 1 CE to 2025 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2012 23
  • 25. Source: Maha Kamel, 2017 Reflections on the new global economy: multipolarity Eastern Europe (16) 24
  • 26. Solutions: What to Avoid and What to Pursue 25
  • 27. 1. Dealing with joblessness by relying on the civil service; 2. Underpaying civil servants compared to the private sector; 3. Cutting fiscal deficits by sacrificing public investment in infrastructure; 4. Subsidizing energy except for very limited subsidies to highly vulnerable sections of the population; 5. Open ended protection for specific sectors; 6. Imposing administrative price controls; 7. Banning exports; 8. Exchange rate misalignment; 9. Resisting urbanization/underinvesting in infrastructure; 10.Ignoring environmental implications; 11.Poorly regulating the Banking sector and excessive interference; 12.Measuring educational progress solely by higher enrollments and ignoring the quality of education Solutions: Avoid bad ideas The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 2008 26
  • 28. Solutions: The policy ingredients of growth strategies The Growth Report Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, 2008 A list of common policies between countries with 7+ % growth over 25+ years 27
  • 29. 19801960 1970 1996 5,000 10,000  1953 Per Capita Income ($) 1990  1945 1998 2007 15,000 2008 20,000 2011 65 79 12,197 7,355 1,000 21,695 1997-98 Financial Crisis Global Financial Crisis  Joining OECD  1948 Foundation of Republic of Korea (1948) 22,489 Receiving Foreign Aid Korean War (1950-53) The Korean Example: From LDC to OECD member 28 28
  • 30. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1 Iron Ore Textiles Textiles Electronics Semiconductors 2 Tungsten Ore Plywood Electronics Textiles Computers 3 Raw Silk Wigs Iron and Steel Products Footwear Automobiles 4 Anthracit e Iron Ore Footwear Iron and Steel Products Petrochemical Products 5 Cuttlefish Electronics Ships Ships Ships <Changes of Export Products by Period> Annual Export Increase 43.5% (62-76) The Korean Example: Growth of trade 29
  • 31. The Korean Example: Role of government 30
  • 32. Changes within one generation 31
  • 33. World Bank twin goals *End extreme poverty *Boost shared prosperity within sustainability framework Invest in three areas: •*Human development •*Inclusive growth and infrastructure •*Resilience Sustainable Development Goals •*People *Planet *Partnership • *Prosperity *Peace *17 goals *169 targets OECD Accession o*Commitment to pluralist democracy based on rule of law and respect of human rights o*Adherence to open & transparent market economy principles o*Shared goal of sustainable development Undergo in-depth reviews by technical OECD committees There are multiple paths of sustainable development 32
  • 34. The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals 33
  • 35. An Opportunity for Transformation: From MDGs to SDGs The global development agendas serve as a compass and guide for countries to determine their national development path MDGs (2000-2015) SDGs (2016-2030) Goals 8 17 Targets 21 169 Indicators 60 ~231 Priority Areas Human Development Holistic: Economic, Social, Environmental Scope Developing Countries Universal 34
  • 36. Looking Back: MDG Progress By number of countries Source: World Bank data, staff calculations 71 35 40 67 38 6 15 67 36 11 8 12 10 18 9 3 5 7 7 4 11 7 16 23 11 2 7 2 13 17 11 37 28 20 12 14 27 52 40 28 34 77 88 40 58 27 33 25 22 2 2 8 19 23 MDG 1.1 - Extreme Poverty MDG 1.9 Under-nourishment MDG 2.1 - Primary Completion MDG 3.1 - Education Gender Parity MDG 4.1 - Under-5 Mortality MDG 4.2 - Infant Mortality MDG 5.1 - Maternal Mortality MDG 7.8 - Improved Water MDG 7.9 - Improved Sanitation Target Met Sufficient Progress Insufficient Progress Moderately Off Target Seriously Off Target Insufficient Data 35
  • 37. Progress on the MDGs Share Of Global Poverty 51% 0% 4% 30% 15% 1990 East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Global poverty: 1.96 billion 37.1 % of global population 12% 1% 4% 33% 50% 2015 Global poverty: 702 million 9.6% of global population 36
  • 38. An Opportunity for Transformation: Lessons learned from the field • Improve coordination and ensure the timeliness and effectiveness of policy instruments • Localize implementation and prioritize engagement of communities and community mobilization • Increase efficient allocation of resources • Recognize and identify interrelatedness of development goals at the onset • Ensure strong government involvement • Promote quality data • Increase cross-institutional collaboration • Bridge the humanitarian and development agendas Based on report: “Transitioning from the MDGs to the SDGs” jointly written by the World Bank Group and the UN Development Programme 37
  • 40. Coordination of development agendas The Colombian Example Active national agendas determine actions related to at least 146 SDG targets - 86% Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation NAT’L DEV PLAN National Development Plan 2014-2018 39
  • 41. OECD Accession The Colombian Example 1. Investment Committee; 2. Working Group on Bribery in International Business Transactions; 3. Corporate Governance Committee; 4. Committee on Financial Markets; 5. Insurance and Private Pensions Committee; 6. Competition Committee; 7. Committee on Fiscal Affairs; 8. Environment Policy Committee; 9. Chemicals Committee; 10. Public Governance Committee; 11. Regulatory Policy Committee; 12. Territorial Development Policy Committee; 13. Committee on Statistics; 14. Economic and Development Review Committee; 15. Education Policy Committee; 16. Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Committee; 17. Health Committee; 18. Trade Committee and the Working Party on Export Credits; 19. Committee for Agriculture; 20. Fisheries Committee; 21. Committee for Scientific and Technological Policy; 22. Committee for Information, Computer and Communications Policy; 23. Committee on Consumer Policy In order to allow Council to take an informed decision on the accession of Colombia, Colombia will undergo in-depth reviews by the following technical OECD committees which will provide a formal opinion to the Council: Source: Roadmap for the Accession of Colombia to the OECD Convention, 2013 40
  • 42. World Bank Twin Goals 41
  • 43. Data: Crucial to understand how trends are shifting 42
  • 44. SDG Interlinkages and Data Visualization The case of Japan: Japan’s goals interlinked to SDG 1 43
  • 45. Financing sustainable development: The key components 44Source: World Bank Group, 2015
  • 46. Financing sustainable development $24.4 trillion in low-yield government securities More than $10 trillion invested in negative interest rate bonds $8 trillion sitting in cash 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Annual Average Infrastructure Investment until 2030 How much is out there? 45 $ Trillion
  • 47. Financing sustainable development Private sector engagement is critical 1990 2015 $ BILLIONS FDI OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE Soaring Private Capital Flows, Flat Official Development Assistance Source: IFC Presentation to Center for Global Development, February 2017 46
  • 48. PUBLIC & CONCESSIONAL FINANCING, INCLUDING SUB-SOVEREIGN • Public finance (incl. national development banks and domestic SWF) • MDBs and DFIs COMMERCIAL FINANCING PUBLIC AND CONCESSIONAL RESOURCES FOR RISK INSTRUMENTS & CREDIT ENHANCEMENTS • Guarantees • First Loss UPSTREAM REFORMS & MARKET FAILURES • Country and Sector Policies • Regulations and Pricing • Institutions and Capacity 3 4 2 Financing sustainable development Private sector engagement needs to increase Can commercial financing be cost- effectively mobilized for sustainable investment? If not… Can upstream reforms be put in place to address market failures? If not… Can risk instruments & credit enhancements cost-effectively cover remaining risks? If not… Can development objectives be resolved with scarce public financing? 1 47
  • 49. Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017 12 largest business themes in a world economy heading for the SDGs Financing sustainable development Opportunities for the private sector 48
  • 50. The SDGs open up US$12 trillion of market opportunities in four economic opportunities: • These economic systems represent around 60 percent of the real economy and are critical to meeting the SDGs. • To capture these opportunities in full, businesses need to pursue social and environmental sustainability as avidly as they pursue market share and shareholder value. • If a critical mass of companies joins us in doing this now, they will become an unstoppable force. • If they don’t, the costs and uncertainty of unsustainable development could swell until there is no viable world in which to do business. Source: Better Business Better World Report, January 2017 Financing sustainable development Opportunities for the private sector 49
  • 51. Source: IMF, 2013 Main Elements of SWF Policy Financing sustainable development Role of Sovereign Wealth Funds 50
  • 52. Financing sustainable development Role of financial inclusion 51
  • 53. Financing sustainable development Role of savings Savings, disaggregated by region (in % of GDP) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 World Egypt, Arab Rep. East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators. Staff Calculations. 2017
  • 54. Financing sustainable development: Role of savings •Influence savings behavior: introduce savings accounts for all students •Improve real income through: •increasing total factor productivity, •increasing labor efficiency, and •maintaining price stability •Reform public social security •Enhance commercial insurance systems •Mobilize digital/biometric ID systems •Realize the potential of fintech Key drivers of domestic savings 53
  • 55. 54 Financing sustainable development: “Digitization” is disrupting every part of financial services 54 Source: World Bank Group, 2017
  • 56. Source: FSB, Financial Stability Implications of FinTech, July 2017 55 Financing sustainable development: Fintech will become critical 55
  • 57. The practice of sustainable development INVEST IN PEOPLE INVEST IN INCLUSIVE GROWTH INVEST IN RESILIENCE •Fragility & Conflict •Climate and weather shocks •Pandemics Sources: World Bank Group, 2017 •Early childhood development •Gender equality •Skills for jobs •Equal opportunities •Infrastructure •Roads •Energy •Sustainable •Greening growth •Water management •Private sector •Job creation Achieve the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity 56
  • 58. Invest in people: Learning to realize education’s promise Sources: World Bank Group, 2017 The practice of sustainable development 57
  • 59. Invest in people: Sources: World Bank Group, 2017 Learning to realize education’s promise The three dimensions of the learning crisis How to realize education’s promise: Three policy responses “If your plan is for one year, plant rice. If your plan is for ten years, plant trees. If your plan is for one hundred years, educate children.” –Kuan Chung (7th Century BC). Still there are reasons for hope • Learning outcomes are poor: low levels, high inequality, slow progress • Schools are failing learners • Systems are failing schools • Assess learning – to make it a serious goal • Act on evidence – to make schools work for all learners • Align actors – to make the whole system work for learning The practice of sustainable development 58
  • 60. Sources: World Bank Group, 2017 It’s more complicated than it looks: people act in reaction to the choices of others throughout the system Invest in people: Learning to realize education’s promise The practice of sustainable development 59
  • 61. Sources: World Bank Group, 2017 Coherence and alignment toward learning Invest in people: Learning to realize education’s promise The practice of sustainable development 60
  • 62. Reduce global maternal mortality ratio End preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age End the epidemics of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, neglected tropical diseases; combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases, other communicable diseases Ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health-care services Reduce premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases Strengthen prevention and treatment of substance abuse Halve global deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents Achieve universal health coverage Substantially reduce number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination SDG 3: Ensure Healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages Invest in people: Health The practice of sustainable development 61
  • 63. Source: World Bank Group, 2015 and Alaa Hamed, 2015 Invest in people: Universal Health Coverage (UHC) The Two Goals of Universal Health Coverage Service delivery: By 2030, everyone has access to essential health services Financial risk protection: by 2030, no one is pushed into or kept in poverty by paying for health care Three Dimensions to Improving UHC The practice of sustainable development 62
  • 64. Sources: World Bank: Social Protection Teams from various regions + ASPIRE Social Protection Social Safety Nets/Social Assistance (Non contributory) To prevent and protect from risks and shocks Social Insurance (Contributory) To ensure adequate living standards in the face of shocks and life changes • Unconditional cash transfers (UCT) • Conditional cash transfers (CCT) • Food and in-kind programs • School feeding • Public works and food for works • Non-contributory social pensions • Fee waivers and targeted subsidies • Social services Labor Market Programs (Contributory and non contributory) (To promote labor inclusion and reintegration) Main Elements of Social Protection Invest in people: Social protection and jobs The practice of sustainable development 63
  • 65. Sources: World Bank: Social Protection Teams from various regions + ASPIRE 20141997 Invest in people: Social protection and jobs Conditional Cash Transfer coverage has expanded rapidly across the world The practice of sustainable development 64
  • 66. Source: KPMG 2017 Natural disaster risk profile The practice of sustainable developmentInvest in resilience 65
  • 67. Invest in inclusive growth: Each industrial revolution shifts the manufacturing opportunities and patterns of specialization Industrial revolutions and shifts in manufacturing specialization, 1784–present Source: © Shutterstock. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. Source: Trouble in the Making? The future of manufacturing-led development, World Bank, 2017 Three “C”s determine the feasibility of success in export-led manufacturing: • Competitiveness • Capabilities • Connectedness The practice of sustainable development 66
  • 68. Invest in inclusive growth: Harnessing technology and the digital dividend Source: Adapted from World Economic Forum, 2017 The practice of sustainable development 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Telephone (1878) Mobile (1979) Internet (1990) Facebook (2004) Whatsapp (2009) Instagram (2010)1878 1979 1990 2004 2009 2010 Number of years to reach 100 million users 67
  • 69. Source: The Wall Street Journal, 1998 Invest in inclusive growth: Harnessing technology and the digital dividend The practice of sustainable development 68
  • 70. Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation 69Source: Online sources Source: Dotmsr
  • 71. Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation 70
  • 72. Source: Cirera; Maloney, The Innovation Paradox, 2017 The Capability to Innovate in 1900 Drives Income Levels Today The Capabilities Escalator Leapfrogging Disruptive Innovation Source: Dassault Systemes, 2017 Source: CodigoDelSur, 2017 Invest in inclusive growth: Harnessing technology and the digital dividend The practice of sustainable development 71
  • 73. Source: New Growth Models, World Economic Forum, 2014 Invest in inclusive growth: Dashboard for inclusive, sustainable, and multidimensional growth The practice of sustainable development 72
  • 74. Implementation Happens at the Local Level 73
  • 75. Source: Data calculations from local government statistics 86 provinces have a population of over 10 million 78 countries have a population of under 5 million 181 provinces have a population of over 5 million Assessing social risk and its mitigation should be conducted at the local level *Analysis conducted on developing countries The practice of sustainable development 74
  • 76. Source: Municipal Finances Handbook: Managing Local Expenditures, Morrell and Kopanyi 1. Preschool education 2. Primary and secondary school 3. Health care 4. Social assistance and poverty alleviation 5. Public order and civil protection 6. Infrastructure and public services 7. Environment protection 8. Social, cultural, recreational expenditures 9. Local economic development 10.Social housing 11.Urban development 12.Civil security 13.Transfer to sub-local government entities 14.(subsidies, grants, equity, in-kind) 15.Loan repayment 16.Interest charges 17.Guarantees called (paid by the municipality) Sample Municipal Budget 1. Property tax (rates) on land and/or buildings 2. Tax on the transfer of immovable property 3. Tax on motor vehicles 4. Local sales tax and/or tax on the sale of local products (or surcharge) 5. Tax on local businesses and services 6. Tax on electricity consumption (surcharge) 7. Tax on nonmotorized vehicles 8. Tax on tourism, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment 9. Tolls on roads, bridges, etc., within the limits of the local government 10. Charges for public works and public utilities such as waste collection, drainage, sewerage, and water supply 11. Charges for markets and rents for market stalls 12. Charges for the use of bus stations and taxi parks 13. Fees for approval of building plans and erection and re-erection of buildings 14. Fees for fairs, agricultural shows, cattle fairs, industrial exhibitions, tournaments, and other public events 15. Fees for licensing of businesses, professions, and vocations 16. Fees for other licenses or permits and penalties or fines for violations 17. Fees for advertisement 18. Fees on sales of animals in cattle markets 19. Fees for registration and certification of births, marriages, and deaths 20. Fees for education and health facilities established or maintained by the local government 21. Fees for other specific services rendered by the local government 22. Rent from land, buildings, equipment, machinery, and vehicles 23. Surpluses from local commercial enterprises Expenses Revenues 75
  • 77. Localization of Urban Development: The case of China Localization of Urban Development in China Reforming land management and institutions Creating a mobile and versatile labor force with equal access to a common standard of public services Placing urban finances on a more sustainable footing while creating financial discipline for local governments Improve the revenue base of local governments by mainstreaming a property tax on housing Improve the intergovernmental grants system Establish an explicit framework for local government transactions Reform the financial sector to enhance fiscal discipline of local governments Reforming urban planning and design Managing environmental pressures Improving governance at the local level Timing, sequencing, and monitoring 76
  • 78. Localization of Urban Development: Kenya: A government funded drought insurance program brings satellite based insurance to Kenyan pastoralists and farmers using mPesa. Indonesia: A program is being implemented to enhance the capacity of local governments to improve efficiency and effectiveness of local public spending. Also implemented the PNPM program: community driven development U.K. Midlands Successful locally owned businesses help develop local markets, create innovation, success and redistribution in a self- reinforcing cycle Colombia: 77
  • 79. Source: Colombia’s HLPF presentation 78
  • 80. Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior VP Thank You worldbankgroup.org/sdgs Follow us on twitter @WBG2030 Mahmoud-Mohieldin on 7 9