REDD+ progress: a qualitative comparative analysis
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The document discusses the qualitative comparative analysis of the REDD+ progress and highlights the importance of transformational change in policies to achieve effective results. It emphasizes the necessity of shifts in governance, economic frameworks, and the establishment of strong institutional settings to combat deforestation. The analysis is based on case studies from various countries to identify facilitating factors and measure the effectiveness of different REDD+ policy approaches.
REDD+ progress: a qualitative comparative analysis
- 1. THINKING beyond the canopy REDD+ progress: a qualitative comparative analysis Maria Brockhaus, Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki, Jenniver Sehring, and Monica Di Gregorio Bonn, 5th June 2013
- 2. How is progress in REDD+ defined? The phased approach (Meridian 2009, UNFCCC) 2
- 3. THINKING beyond the canopy To move forward with REDD+ toward result based payments, transformational change is needed: Definition and policy outcomes a shift in discursive practices, attitudes, power relations, and deliberate policy and protest action that leads policy formulation and implementation away from business as usual policy approaches that directly or indirectly support deforestation and degradation
- 4. THINKING beyond the canopy Examples of transformational change In the context of REDD+, transformational outcomes can be i) changes in economic, regulatory and governance frameworks, including the devolution of rights to local users; ii) removals of perverse incentives, such as subsidies and concessions that serve selective economic interests and stimulate deforestation and forest degradation; and iii) reforms of forest industry policies and regulations that effectively reduce unsustainable extraction
- 5. THINKING beyond the canopy How to measure country progress? QCA Kaisa Korhonen-Kurki, Jenniver Sehring, Maria Brockhaus and Monica Di Gregorio. Enabling factors for establishing REDD+ in a context of weak governance: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis. (submitted to Climate Policy) QCA designed for comparisons of a small to intermediate number of cases (Ragin, 1987 2000, 2008; Rihoux & Ragin, 2009; Schneider & Wagemann 2012) QCA allows for systematic cross-case comparison without neglecting case complexity modest, medium- range generalization and theorizing In QCA, each case is understood as a specific combination (or ‘configuration’) of factors, called ‘conditions’
- 6. THINKING beyond the canopy Background studies (country profiles, media analysis, comparative analysis) in 12 countries in South America, sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Oceania Expert country teams with in-depth case knowledge • Workshops: Identification of relevant factors, identification of relevant indicators • Online survey: revision of factors, indicators, and first assessment selection of final factors and assessment • Final workshop in September 2012: assessments finalised and verified 2-step QCA QCA for REDD+: approach
- 7. THINKING beyond the canopy Analysis :Two-step QCA Outcome variable: Establishment of comprehensive policies targeting transformational change in the REDD+ policy domain (phase II) Remote conditions spatiotemporally distant from the outcome, stable over time , difficult to change institutional setting Proximate conditions spatiotemporally close, vary over time and easier to change policy arena Six factors divided into two categories to explain outcome • Institutional setting: pressure from forest-resource shortage; effective forest legislation, policy and governance; already initiated policy change • The policy arena: national ownership; transformational coalitions; inclusiveness of the policy process
- 8. THINKING beyond the canopy Definition of the outcome: Establishment of comprehensive policies targeting transformational change in the REDD+ policy domain Presence Absence Indicators of presence Evaluation New institutions, procedures and capacity-building measures are established by committed actors. Such policies and outputs are built on a broad societal consensus for change. New institutions and procedures are not established or are met with resistance, thus undermining their capacity to function. REDD+ policy formulation remains fragmented or is undertaken mainly by external actors. Business-as-usual approaches dominate media and politics. * MRV system developed * Coordination body established * REDD financing used effectively * National strategy in place * Grievance procedures or other mechanisms to enhance accountability in REDD+ systems established Two or more indicators of presence = 1 Zero or one indicator of presence = 0 Only Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam (at least two indicators present) - outcome 1.
- 9. THINKING beyond the canopy Key features of effective forest legislation, policy and governance (EFF) Presence Absence Indicators of presence Evaluation A sound and clear legal framework with clearly assigned rights and management regulations is in place. Laws and policies are at least partly effectively implemented by national and local administrations, which have at their disposal a minimum of enforcement mechanisms and implementation capacity. Tenure and rights are in many respects unclear and contested. There are unresolved contradictions between formal and customary law. There are no adequate laws and policies, or they exist but are ineffective because of lack of implementation mechanisms and enforcement capacity and/or elite capture and corruption. *Sound and consistent legal forestry framework and policies *Effective implementation and enforcement mechanisms *Capacity-building efforts for implementing agencies *High compliance with the law by citizens and businesses *Awareness and effective use of rights *Low level of corruption and clientelistic patterns undermining policy implementation Two or more indicators present = 1 Zero or one indicator present = 0
- 10. THINKING beyond the canopy Transformational coalitions (COAL) Presence Absence Indicators of presence Evaluation Existence of coalitions of drivers of change with room to manoeuvre in the political structures and impact on the discourse. Policy actors and coalitions calling for transformational change are more prominent in the media than those supporting the status quo. No observable coalitions of drivers of change, or any present are too marginal to influence policy- making and are not visible in the political discourse on REDD+. Media and policy circles are dominated by coalitions supporting the status quo and business as usual. *Notions or existence of coalition building among actors supporting REDD+ policies (e.g. umbrella organization, regular meetings, joint statements, personal relations) *There are drivers of change (policy actors that lead discourse in pro-REDD+ direction) both inside and outside government institutions. *Policy actor coalitions calling for substantial political change in forest policies are more prominent in media than those supporting the status quo. *Pro-REDD+ policy actors have good access to political decision-makers (e.g. invited to expert hearings, members in advisory councils). Two or more indicators present, including the first indicator = 1 Zero or one indicator present or first indicator absent = 0
- 11. THINKING beyond the canopy Results I: Institutional setting The results reveal path dependencies and institutional stickiness in all the study countries: Only countries already undertaking institutional change (CHA) have been able to establish REDD+ policies in a relatively short period but only in the presence of either • high pressure from forest-resource shortages (PRES: Brazil and Indonesia) • or key features of effective forest legislation, policy and governance (EFF: Vietnam). positive outcome (REDD = 1):PRES*eff*CHA (Indonesia) + pres*EFF*CHA (Vietnam) + PRES*EFF*CHA (Brazil)
- 12. THINKING beyond the canopy
- 13. THINKING beyond the canopy Results II: Policy arena Where an enabling institutional setting is in place (EFF*CHA or PRES*eff*CHA), two conditions of the policy arena proofed to be crucial for all three successful countries (Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia): National ownership (OWN) Transformational coalitions (COAL) Countries that have these two conditions of the policy arena, but not the enabling institutional setting (e.g. Peru and Mozambique), were not successful in establishing REDD+ yet.
- 14. THINKING beyond the canopy Note: Indonesia has the alternative configuration for enabling environment(PRES*eff*CHA) and the policy arena configuration is *OWN*COAL*incl
- 15. THINKING beyond the canopy Factors affecting national REDD+ policies Case Institutional setting Policy arena Outcome PRES EFF CHA OWN COAL INCL REDD Bolivia 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 Brazil 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Burkina Faso 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cameroon 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 DRC 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 Indonesia 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 Mozambique 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 Nepal 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 Peru 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 PNG 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 Tanzania 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 Vietnam 0 1 1 1 1 0 1
- 16. THINKING beyond the canopy Measuring progress? Some reflections Findings: • Context matters: Already initiated institutional change allows for faster REDD+ design , but either forest pressure needs to be high or effective forest legislation, policy and governance in place • Actor-related factors of national ownership and transformational coalitions crucial: but could only be effective in an enabling institutional setting
- 17. THINKING beyond the canopy Measuring progress? Some reflections Method: • Combinations of conditions including presence/absence specification allows to deal with REDD complexity • Factors (conditions) identified can be useful examples for performance assessments in REDD+ countries • Limitations are given with outcome variable, and with limited case numbers that have achieved this, will be very interesting when emission trajectories will be affected through REDD+
- 18. We acknowledge the support from: Norad and the Ministry of Environment of Norway, AusAID (Australia), European Commission, Dept. of Energy and Climate Change & Dept. for Int. Dev. (UK), & all research partners and individuals that have contributed to the GCS research Thanks
- 19. THINKING beyond the canopy Pressure from shortage of forest resources (PRES) Presence Absence Indicators Evaluation Forests are under pressure from high deforestation rate Abundant or recovering forest resources with a low to medium or negative (reforestation) deforestation rate *Forest transition stagea *Deforestation rate Forest transition stage 2 or 3 and deforestation rate above 0.5% annually = 1 Forest transition stage 1, 4 or 5 and deforestation rate below 0.5% annually = 0
- 20. THINKING beyond the canopy Key features of effective forest legislation, policy and governance (EFF) Presence Absence Indicators of presence Evaluation A sound and clear legal framework with clearly assigned rights and management regulations is in place. Laws and policies are at least partly effectively implemented by national and local administrations, which have at their disposal a minimum of enforcement mechanisms and implementation capacity. Tenure and rights are in many respects unclear and contested. There are unresolved contradictions between formal and customary law. There are no adequate laws and policies, or they exist but are ineffective because of lack of implementation mechanisms and enforcement capacity and/or elite capture and corruption. *Sound and consistent legal forestry framework and policies *Effective implementation and enforcement mechanisms *Capacity-building efforts for implementing agencies *High compliance with the law by citizens and businesses *Awareness and effective use of rights *Low level of corruption and clientelistic patterns undermining policy implementation Two or more indicators present = 1 Zero or one indicator present = 0
- 21. THINKING beyond the canopy Already initiated policy change (CHA) Already initiated policy change (CHA) Presence Absence Indicators of presence Evaluation The government has already formulated and is implementing policy strategies on climate change (e.g. NAMA) and deforestation, or a low-carbon development strategies or/and PES schemes are already established independently from REDD+ policies The government has not yet formulated advanced policy strategies on climate change (e.g. NAMA) and deforestation or a low-carbon development strategy, or existing policies are highly insufficient or not at all implemented. No PES schemes have been established. * Evidence of implementation of policy strategies in related fields (e.g. one or more of the following: NAMA, PES, deforestation, low- carbon development) Present = 1 Absent = 0
- 22. THINKING beyond the canopy National ownership (OWN) Presence Absence Indicators of presence Evaluation Pro-REDD+ media statements by government (national and subnational). National research and NGO actors dominate policy discourse (media analysis). Engagement of national political institutions in REDD+ policy formulation. Donor agendas do not dominate process. Budget allocation to REDD+. Anti-REDD+ media statements by national state actors and/or pro-REDD+ statements by international actors dominate policy discourse. Policy formulation is mainly by foreign actors. Financial incentives from donors are main reason for REDD+ implementation. No budget allocation to REDD+. *Regular pro-REDD+ statements by government appear in the media. *REDD+ policy formulation is led by national political institutions. *Foreign donors/actors have only a minor/advisory role and agenda in REDD+ policy formulation. All 3 indicators present = 1 Fewer than 3 indicators present = 0
- 23. THINKING beyond the canopy Transformational coalitions (COAL) Presence Absence Indicators of presence Evaluation Existence of coalitions of drivers of change with room to manoeuvre in the political structures and impact on the discourse. Policy actors and coalitions calling for transformational change are more prominent in the media than those supporting the status quo. No observable coalitions of drivers of change, or any present are too marginal to influence policy- making and are not visible in the political discourse on REDD+. Media and policy circles are dominated by coalitions supporting the status quo and business as usual. *Notions or existence of coalition building among actors supporting REDD+ policies (e.g. umbrella organization, regular meetings, joint statements, personal relations) *There are drivers of change (policy actors that lead discourse in pro-REDD+ direction) both inside and outside government institutions. *Policy actor coalitions calling for substantial political change in forest policies are more prominent in media than those supporting the status quo. *Pro-REDD+ policy actors have good access to political decision-makers (e.g. invited to expert hearings, members in advisory councils). Two or more indicators present, including the first indicator = 1 Zero or one indicator present or first indicator absent = 0