Transforming REDD+ Lessons and new direction
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The document discusses a critical analysis of REDD+ implementation, highlighting its objectives and the challenges of funding and political will in combating climate change. Despite some positive outcomes in terms of forest prominence and stakeholder involvement, the overall impacts are modest and ongoing coordination issues remain. Recommendations for improving REDD+ effectiveness include bold initiatives, integrating forest conservation into sustainable economic strategies, and prioritizing rigorous impact assessments.
Transforming REDD+ Lessons and new direction
- 1. Transforming REDD+ Lessons and new direction COP, 1-2 December 2018, Bonn Germany 1 Arild Angelsen Professor, School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Ås, Norway & Senior Associate, CIFOR , Bogor, Indonesia arild.angelsen@nmbu.no
- 2. • 10 years of CGS-REDD+ research • CIFOR and partners • Almost 500 publications 2008 2009 2012 2018
- 3. Our approach: Constructive critique A critical, evidence-based analysis of REDD+ implementation …. without losing sight of the urgent need to reduce forest-based emissions to prevent catastrophic climate change REDD+ objective vs. framework (1) the objective of reducing emissions and increasing removals from forests in developing countries; (2) an umbrella term for actions at all levels, aimed at forest-based mitigation (i) activities relying on results-based payments (PES) (ii) mechanisms within the UNFCCC framework
- 4. Transforming REDD+ to be transformational • A new global climate change architecture • Paris: NDCs take centre stage • Domestic and aid funding dominate • Perhaps carbon markets in the future • A changing global political climate • Strong warnings from IPCC • But, climate deniers in high offices • Increasing gap between political will and climate necessity • An evolving REDD+ • Lessons learned • Expectations management
- 5. Book overview 1. Building blocks, including finance 2. National politics and coordination problems 3. Assessing impacts 4. Evolving initiatives • Explaining (s)low progress
- 6. Summarising REDD+: 1. FINANCE AND BUILDING BLOCKS • International funding (public & private) remains scarce, and demand through carbon markets is lacking • USD 1.1 – 2.7 billion/year in international REDD+ funding • Much cost covering by REDD+ governments and communities not counted • Results-based payment, REDD+’s key feature, largely untested at scale • Funding • Complex • Anecdotal evidence on the impacts of REDD+ finance on national policies
- 7. … summarising: 2. POSITIVE INTERMEDIATE OUTPUTS & OUTCOMES • REDD+ helped forests gain prominence on the international and some national policy agendas • 50+ countries put REDD+ in NDCs and have national REDD+ strategies, but major coordination and implementation issues remain • National REDD+ initiatives improved countries’ monitoring capacities and understanding of drivers • Increased stakeholder involvement, and platforms to secure indigenous and community land rights • Jurisdictional approaches, covering 28% of tropical forests • 350 REDD+ projects, covering 43 million ha
- 8. …. summarising: 3. MODEST IMPACTS • National REDD+ policies: • most show some statistically significant reductions, but small effect size • Local REDD+ initiatives: • modest but positive outcomes for forests • Well-being impacts limited and mixed • more likely positive when incentive components are included • Similar to the micro-macro paradox of development aid • crowding out, leakage, too small
- 9. How can REDD+ become more effective? 1. Big and bold initiatives needed • International finance nudges …. • … but domestic incentives decide • Redesigning economics incentives for a triple win: • conserve forests • increase economic efficiency • improve government budget balance • Examples • Brazil’s drastic deforestation reduction post-2004 • India’s ecological fiscal transfers (USD 7-12 billion annually) • Ethiopia restoration plans • How can avoid project-ification, and make REDD+ support these reforms?
- 10. 2. A positive, exciting narrative on forests • The iron law of climate policy: • If a conflict climate – economic development, climate loses • Make forests part of a green/sustainable economic development strategy • Examples: • 1/5 of local income from forests (PEN study) • Forests as bio-pumps and ‘aerial rivers’
- 11. 3. Be brave and assess impacts • Few studies • Impact assessment is not story-telling by donors, proponents or beneficiaries • … but a set of rigorous approaches; the main problem being to estimate the counterfactual • Impact Assessment is not an afterthought; design and collect data from day 1 • Risky for proponents: no control of the verdict • We simply need to know more about what works and what doesn’t
- 12. Why not more impact assessments? 3 hypotheses H1: LOW (PERCEIVED) BENEFITS • Proponents with strong faith in own approach & success • “One can easily see if it works or not” H2: HIGH COSTS AND COMPLEX • Data collection: baselines, controls • Hire experts • Randomisation of treatments ethically problematic H3: HIGH RISKS • No control of the verdict • Negative assessment may jeopardize future funding
- 13. 10 years of REDD+, what have we learned? • Not as much as hoped • Confirmation bias; are we afraid of learning? • Made good progress on the intermediate outcomes • They are important, and a key foundation to build on • Addressing the underlying drivers and fundamental economic incentives is next • A political question (conflicting interests), and political solution