Resilience of complex adaptive and evolving infrastructure systems
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This document discusses the concept of resilience in natural and infrastructure systems. It begins by defining resilience in natural systems as including persistence of relationships, absorption of shocks, reorganization during change, and avoidance of critical transitions. For infrastructure systems, resilience means continuity of function, rapid recovery, and tolerable loss. The document then examines examples of resilience, or lack thereof, in responses to the 2010 Haiti earthquake and 2011 Japan earthquake. It argues that location in a system's "phase space" is important. Later sections discuss frameworks for quantitatively assessing community resilience, and generic indicators of loss of resilience prior to tipping points. Overall the document takes a broad view of resilience as the ability of systems to cope with or adapt to stresses
Resilience of complex adaptive and evolving infrastructure systems
- 1. Resilience of Complex Adaptive and Evolving Infrastructure Systems Dr. Shima Beigi Faculty of Engineering University of Bristol
- 2. Bifurcation of Thoughts: What Is Resilience And What It Is Not Natural Systems ➢ Persistence of Relationships, Absorption of Shocks (Holling 1973) ➢ Qualitative property that changes throughout ecosystem dynamics (Holling 2001) ➢ Reorganization while undergoing change ➢ Retention of Structure, Function, Feedback and Identity ➢ Avoiding Critical Transitions, Probability of Extinction ➢ Adaptation (Walker et al 2004; Holling and Gunderson 2002) ➢ Transformability of Social and Ecological Systems (Walker et al 2004; 2006; Walker and Salt 2006; Walker and Salt 2012; Marten Scheffer 2009) Infrastructure Systems ➢ Continuity of Function (MCEER Publications 2003-2011) ➢ Rapid Recovery (We have not built for recovery in first place!) ➢ Bouncing Back (Direction?) ➢ Tolerable Level of Loss (How to Measure?) ➢ Climate Proof Systems (Like Wearing a Jacket?) ➢ Adaptation (Are We Now in a Desirable State?) ➢ Evolution of Socio-Technical Systems and Their Transition (Pim and Kemp 1998, Smith and Stirling 2008, Bollinger et al 2012, Zhao et al 2012)
- 3. Change Seeks To Materialize Its Ingredients Be Aware Of The Gap Between Extinction And Persistence Haiti Earthquake 2010 Japan Earthquake 2011 1) LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM IN ITS PHASE-SPACE MATTERS.
- 4. Disasters Can Teach Us About Our Distance To Critical Thresholds FAILURE OF CONTROL MECHANISM EXHAUSTION OF DEGREE OF RESILIENCY OF COMMUNITIES
- 5. Resilience Is About Architecting “Order” In The Systems and “Extending Survival” HAITI RESPONSE JAPAN HAITI ONWARD PROJECT AND ARCHITECTURE FOR HUMANITY UTILISING THE CREATIVE DESTRUCTION AND BOTTOM UP DISASTER MANAGEMENT Haiti recovery map by Gene Thorp/The Washington. Source: http://www.mapmanusa.com/cci-twp-persp-3.html Japan recovery respond, Combined Image: Source: http://www.lidovky.cz
- 6. Social And Ecological Landscape And Adaptive Cycle Model 3rd of June 2013 ABSORPTION OF DISTURBANCE Persistence of Key Relationships (Robustness and Feedback Loops) REORGANISE WHILE EXPERIENCING CHANGE (Self-Organisation) RETAINING OF THE SAME STRUCTURE, FUNCTION, IDENTITY AND FEEDBACK Remember and Revolt (Trade-Offs, Distance to Thresholds) OBJECTIVE Avoiding Critical Transitions and Regime Shifts DESIRED PROPERTY Maintenance of Existence of Function (E.g., Clear State in Lakes) Transformation Adaptation Shima Beigi (2015)
- 7. Resilience of Complex Critical Infrastructures Systems 3rd of June 2013 STRUCTURAL FAILURES INTERDEPENDENCIES FUNCTIONAL FAILURES Physical Geographical CyberLOGICAL OBJECTIVE Avoiding Loss and Enhance Cope-Ability of Communities With Change DESIRED PROPERTY Maintenance of Continuity of Function (E.g., Normal Mode of Service) Shima Beigi (2015)
- 8. Historical Events and Nonlinear Dynamics of Technology and Infrastructure Systems Examples of Nonlinear Effects • Rethinking Nuclear Energy in Germany • Magnet Effect in transition shelters and prolonged recovery time • Order: Entrainment of Flashbulb Memories, Stimulating the Process of Emergence of “New Resilience in Old Bottle” or “Completely New Resilience”. • WE DON’T WANT THE OLD STATE ANY MORE ! Examples of Triggers • Failure of Absorptive Mechanism and Robustness in Fukushima Power Plant; • Failure of Haitian Government to Utilize Resourcefulness of Haitian and Enhance Degree of Resiliency of System as a Whole; • Disorder: Disruption of “Old Resilience” • Haiti Earthquake Occurred After 108 Years! Adger 2000: Resilience is the Ability of Groups or Communities to Cope with External Stresses and Disturbances As a Result of Social, Political and Environmental Change. Adger 2006: Resilience Is Broadly The Potential To Create Opportunities For Doing New Things For Innovation And Development.
- 9. How To Translate Resilience? Shima Beigi (2015)
- 10. How To Translate Resilience? Shima Beigi (2015)
- 11. How To Translate Resilience? Emergent Sub-Scape of Flows Space (Animals) (Human) Resources (Plants) (Human) Time (Human) Humans Have Autonomous Capacity to Grow and to Be Active in Space and to Be Active in Time Animals Have Autonomous Capacity to Grow and to Be Active in Space Plants Have Autonomous Capacity to Grow Stress Humanity in order to live must produce creatively and therefore must be guided by applied sciences of ethics, jurisprudence, psychology, economics, sociology, politics, and government must be technologised: They must be made to progress and to function in the proper dimension. Alfred Korzybski- 1921 Manhood of Humanity- Page 62. 4) Scale Matters. Shima Beigi (2015)
- 12. Trade-offs, Feedbacks and The Tension Between Quantity And Quality Natural Systems Infrastructure Systems What Would We Like Our Transportation And Infrastructure Systems, Communities And World Look Like Over Decadal And Beyond Time Scales? Shima Beigi (2015)
- 13. Model Linking Changes In Ecosystem Properties During Desertification To Changes In Global Biochemistry
- 14. A Generic Model of Resilience: Synthetic Resilience Ecological Resilience Engineering Resilience and Disaster Resilience ➢Changes In The Dynamics Of River-bed And Flow After ➢Emergence Of “Quake Lakes”! ➢Loss Of Economic Activity As A Result Of Changes In The River ➢Increasing The Poverty In The Rural Areas ➢Prolonging Recovery And Increasing The Vulnerability Of The Region ➢Triggering Change In Conservation Policies 1. The Impacts Of Disasters On Ecosystems Is An Emerging New Area Of Research. The Data Released After The Quake In Wenchuan Province In China 2008, 7.9 M, Show Intricate Links Between Resilience Of Communities, Robustness Of Engineered Infrastructure Systems, Resilience Of Natural Systems, And Efficiency Of Disaster Management Processes. 2. Societies Has To Choose The Type Of Robustness In Which It Is Most Willing To Invest To Enhance Their Resourcefulness To Cope With Surprise. May10,2013.FengLi/Getty Images Shima Beigi (2015)
- 15. Disasters Can Teach Us About The Role Of Inventory Of Resourcefulness In Rebuilding From Ruin SUCCESS OF CONTROL MECHANISM CHINA EARTHQUAKE 2008 SUSTAINING DEGREE OF RESILIENCY OF COMMUNITIES LARGE NATIONS WITH A RAPIDLY GROWING ECONOMY CAN DIVERT MORE RESOURCES FROM MORE PROSPEROUS AREAS TO AID ONE DEVASTATED REGION.
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