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Quantifying Disaster Risk


      …………… A school DRR toolkit
for Comprehensive School Safety Programme




                  Ranjan Praharaj,
             Development Professional,
             Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
             Praharaj.ranjan@gmail.com
                Cell: +91 9439862467
The Situation

 Children are most vulnerable to disasters than others in the community
 As per the disaster history, be it India or aboard, children are most
  sufferers in any disaster
 They spend a major portion of time in a day in schools (to school, in school
  & back to home)


   While,

 Schools in India are located in seismic zones between II – V or, they are
  located in different flooding, cyclone and civil unrest zones
 Epidemics, explosions, accident, building distress etc. also poses treat to
  several schools
 Fire triggering as well as fire enhancing materials are present in most of the
  schools.
                                                                      Cont……
The Situation
 The number and composition of student and staff of each school varies as
  per age group, gender and presence of differently able population.
 The financial value of material resources varies from school to school and
  so also its exposure to hazards, depending upon the structural and non-
  structural setups and place where the materials are located..
 Some have safe havens/safe shelters and some do not
 Some have communication systems and some do not
 Some have better linkages with service providers and some do not
 Some have stockpiles and some do not
 Some have better WASH facilities and some do not
 Some have buildings as per building code and some do not
 Some have Disaster Preparedness skills and practices and some do not

       ???……..We need safe schools. Safety is the right of every child
The Need
 In the prevailing disaster scenario of India, many Schools are
  “at Risk” from a single or from multiple hazards.

 All of them need assistance in one or other forms.

 The “degree of risk” varies from school to school based on,
           its geographical location, geological setup of the
            location,
           vulnerable elements (human as well as material) in
            the school, and
           the existing capacity of the school to cope with the
            adverse effect of the probable disasters.

 With scarce resource and time limit most of the times the aid
  agencies, humanitarian organizations and Government as well
  need answer to the question “where and how to start with?”.

                                                         Cont……
The Need

 Aid agencies, Humanitarian organizations and govt. as well have
  already implemented school DRR programme in some of the
  schools.

But, there is no clear answer to the questions;

              What was the need, how did we intervene?

              What changes we brought/What is the result?

               Whether the intervention brought equal changes in all
              the schools where we intervene? If no, why.

              What was our objective and where are we now?
Every one need answer to the question, “how to track the changes”?
                                                            Cont……
The Need

 Sometimes, school management is not ready to be convinced that
  their school is exposed to risk.

 School community need a short, simple and easy tool with first hand
  information to understand their vulnerability and lacks and gaps in
  capacity.

 School community need guidance/suggestions at each step and on
  regular basis to increase their capacity and keep up some practice
  on regular basis.

 There is a need to develop a competitive mentality among school
  management to justify that their school is much safer.
About the School DRR Toolkit
 The toolkit is an algorithmic model, which can measure and present
  the degree of threat/risk to a school at different point of time in
  numerical value (technically referred to as the “Risk Index”) with a
  predefined scale of measurement.
 Can measure degree of risk to human as well as material elements
  in a school, be it hazard specific or of combination of different
  hazards (natural as well as human-made).
 Can be used at different point of time of a project cycle by the
  implementing agency for initial risk assessment, decision making,
  programme planning, monitoring and evaluation.
 Can guide individual schools to keep track on the degree of risk on
  regular basis and provide suggestion to take appropriate measures
  to reduce the risk.
 Can be used as a tool for monitoring school DRR programme and
  safety audit of the schools both of line and on line by implementing
  agency(GO/NGO).
Steps Followed
                                                Auto Calculation of
                                                    Risk Index
                                          Data Feeding

                                 Data Collection

                              Finalization of
                              Survey Format
                          Algorithm
                         Development

                 Weight Assignment

         Grouping & Ranking

   Indicator Selection
   Hazard
Identification
The Approach

 Identify the common hazards posing a threat to the schools.
 Define indicators to measure hazard, vulnerability and required
  capacity for each of the identified hazards.
 In case of multiple variables for a single indicator, form groups
  and assign ranks.
 Assign weights to indicators according to importance
 Determine an Algorithm
 Gather data and feed into the toolkit.
 Calculate Risk Index(hazard specific or of multi hazard)

For disaster managers - Use the finding for planning , decision
  making, monitoring and evaluation.

For individual school – Get the suggestions to minimize the risk
  (hazard specific as well as multi hazard).
Criteria for Selection of Indicators


      Support concept

      Verifiable

      Data availability and quality

      Simplicity

      Quantitativeness

      Recognition
Equation for Calculation of Risk Index



         Rt = ∑ Hi p(Hi)              (ν      c)

Where,
             Rt   =   Total Risk
             Hi   =   Hazard Intensity
             p(H) =   Probability of Hazard
             v    =   Vulnerability
             c    =   Capacity
The Risk Index Algorithm

                                             MHRI

                  NHRI                                                   HMHRI



                                      MRI-NH1        HRI-HMH1                                   MRI-HMH1
HRI-NH1



HRI-NH2      NHHRI        NHMRI       MRI-NH2       HRI-HMH2        HMHHRI        HMHMRI        MRI-HMH2



                                                     HRI-HMHn                                   MRI-HMHn
HRI-NHn                               MRI-NHn

 NB:
 MHRI: Multi Hazard Risk Index, NHRI: Natural Hazard Risk Index, HMHRI: Human Made Hazard Risk Index,
 NHHRI: Natural Hazard Human Risk Index, NHMRI: Natural Hazard Material Risk Index, HMHHRI: Human Made
 Hazard Human Risk Index, HMHMRI: Human Made Hazard Material Risk Index, HRI: Human Risk Index, MRI:
 Material Risk Index, NH: Natural Hazard, HMH: Human Made Hazard.
Use of School DRR Tool Kit (for individual school)
                                  The safer school virtuous circle

                        Suggestions for
                        Risk Reduction


   Risk Index                                  DRR Program
   Calculation                                 Customization

              Enhanced Capacity
                                        More Safer School
                 Reduced Risk

     Data                                        DRR Activities
    Feeding                                     Implementation


                             Data
                           Collection
Use of School DRR Tool Kit
      (for DRR Managers, Implementing Agencies, Aid Agencies)
 Selection of highest at/high risk schools for intervention (as per available
budget, time and manpower availability)
 Hazard Specific Selection of High Risk Schools (if mandate is to concentrate
for specific hazard/s)
 Geographical area specific selection of High Risk Schools (if mandate is to
concentrate in specific geographical location/s)
 Identification of lack and gap in capacity of high risk schools to respond to
disasters
 Derive suggestion (pre loaded) for minimizing risk index
 Develop appropriate school safety programme
Customize school specific interventions based on identified lacks and gaps in
capacity
 Track on the progress of implementation
 Make regular assessment / evaluation by updating (on line/off line) school
specific information and identify gaps in implementation
 Make a better comparison of the pre and post project risk index.
Example




Complete Package of the Tool Kit & its User’s
       Manual An Example
              is under Preparation
Comments

 Human observation is better to make a detailed risk analysis (if
  number of schools is less) than any algorithmic model.

 Lack of scope for the qualitative indicators like;
            Sense of the school community.
            Core beliefs and values.
            Feelings and attachment of the school community etc.
            Behavioral and attitudinal aspects
School drr toolkit

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School drr toolkit

  • 1. Quantifying Disaster Risk …………… A school DRR toolkit for Comprehensive School Safety Programme Ranjan Praharaj, Development Professional, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India Praharaj.ranjan@gmail.com Cell: +91 9439862467
  • 2. The Situation  Children are most vulnerable to disasters than others in the community  As per the disaster history, be it India or aboard, children are most sufferers in any disaster  They spend a major portion of time in a day in schools (to school, in school & back to home) While,  Schools in India are located in seismic zones between II – V or, they are located in different flooding, cyclone and civil unrest zones  Epidemics, explosions, accident, building distress etc. also poses treat to several schools  Fire triggering as well as fire enhancing materials are present in most of the schools. Cont……
  • 3. The Situation  The number and composition of student and staff of each school varies as per age group, gender and presence of differently able population.  The financial value of material resources varies from school to school and so also its exposure to hazards, depending upon the structural and non- structural setups and place where the materials are located..  Some have safe havens/safe shelters and some do not  Some have communication systems and some do not  Some have better linkages with service providers and some do not  Some have stockpiles and some do not  Some have better WASH facilities and some do not  Some have buildings as per building code and some do not  Some have Disaster Preparedness skills and practices and some do not ???……..We need safe schools. Safety is the right of every child
  • 4. The Need  In the prevailing disaster scenario of India, many Schools are “at Risk” from a single or from multiple hazards.  All of them need assistance in one or other forms.  The “degree of risk” varies from school to school based on,  its geographical location, geological setup of the location,  vulnerable elements (human as well as material) in the school, and  the existing capacity of the school to cope with the adverse effect of the probable disasters.  With scarce resource and time limit most of the times the aid agencies, humanitarian organizations and Government as well need answer to the question “where and how to start with?”. Cont……
  • 5. The Need  Aid agencies, Humanitarian organizations and govt. as well have already implemented school DRR programme in some of the schools. But, there is no clear answer to the questions; What was the need, how did we intervene? What changes we brought/What is the result? Whether the intervention brought equal changes in all the schools where we intervene? If no, why. What was our objective and where are we now? Every one need answer to the question, “how to track the changes”? Cont……
  • 6. The Need  Sometimes, school management is not ready to be convinced that their school is exposed to risk.  School community need a short, simple and easy tool with first hand information to understand their vulnerability and lacks and gaps in capacity.  School community need guidance/suggestions at each step and on regular basis to increase their capacity and keep up some practice on regular basis.  There is a need to develop a competitive mentality among school management to justify that their school is much safer.
  • 7. About the School DRR Toolkit  The toolkit is an algorithmic model, which can measure and present the degree of threat/risk to a school at different point of time in numerical value (technically referred to as the “Risk Index”) with a predefined scale of measurement.  Can measure degree of risk to human as well as material elements in a school, be it hazard specific or of combination of different hazards (natural as well as human-made).  Can be used at different point of time of a project cycle by the implementing agency for initial risk assessment, decision making, programme planning, monitoring and evaluation.  Can guide individual schools to keep track on the degree of risk on regular basis and provide suggestion to take appropriate measures to reduce the risk.  Can be used as a tool for monitoring school DRR programme and safety audit of the schools both of line and on line by implementing agency(GO/NGO).
  • 8. Steps Followed Auto Calculation of Risk Index Data Feeding Data Collection Finalization of Survey Format Algorithm Development Weight Assignment Grouping & Ranking Indicator Selection Hazard Identification
  • 9. The Approach  Identify the common hazards posing a threat to the schools.  Define indicators to measure hazard, vulnerability and required capacity for each of the identified hazards.  In case of multiple variables for a single indicator, form groups and assign ranks.  Assign weights to indicators according to importance  Determine an Algorithm  Gather data and feed into the toolkit.  Calculate Risk Index(hazard specific or of multi hazard) For disaster managers - Use the finding for planning , decision making, monitoring and evaluation. For individual school – Get the suggestions to minimize the risk (hazard specific as well as multi hazard).
  • 10. Criteria for Selection of Indicators  Support concept  Verifiable  Data availability and quality  Simplicity  Quantitativeness  Recognition
  • 11. Equation for Calculation of Risk Index Rt = ∑ Hi p(Hi) (ν c) Where, Rt = Total Risk Hi = Hazard Intensity p(H) = Probability of Hazard v = Vulnerability c = Capacity
  • 12. The Risk Index Algorithm MHRI NHRI HMHRI MRI-NH1 HRI-HMH1 MRI-HMH1 HRI-NH1 HRI-NH2 NHHRI NHMRI MRI-NH2 HRI-HMH2 HMHHRI HMHMRI MRI-HMH2 HRI-HMHn MRI-HMHn HRI-NHn MRI-NHn NB: MHRI: Multi Hazard Risk Index, NHRI: Natural Hazard Risk Index, HMHRI: Human Made Hazard Risk Index, NHHRI: Natural Hazard Human Risk Index, NHMRI: Natural Hazard Material Risk Index, HMHHRI: Human Made Hazard Human Risk Index, HMHMRI: Human Made Hazard Material Risk Index, HRI: Human Risk Index, MRI: Material Risk Index, NH: Natural Hazard, HMH: Human Made Hazard.
  • 13. Use of School DRR Tool Kit (for individual school) The safer school virtuous circle Suggestions for Risk Reduction Risk Index DRR Program Calculation Customization Enhanced Capacity More Safer School Reduced Risk Data DRR Activities Feeding Implementation Data Collection
  • 14. Use of School DRR Tool Kit (for DRR Managers, Implementing Agencies, Aid Agencies)  Selection of highest at/high risk schools for intervention (as per available budget, time and manpower availability)  Hazard Specific Selection of High Risk Schools (if mandate is to concentrate for specific hazard/s)  Geographical area specific selection of High Risk Schools (if mandate is to concentrate in specific geographical location/s)  Identification of lack and gap in capacity of high risk schools to respond to disasters  Derive suggestion (pre loaded) for minimizing risk index  Develop appropriate school safety programme Customize school specific interventions based on identified lacks and gaps in capacity  Track on the progress of implementation  Make regular assessment / evaluation by updating (on line/off line) school specific information and identify gaps in implementation  Make a better comparison of the pre and post project risk index.
  • 15. Example Complete Package of the Tool Kit & its User’s Manual An Example is under Preparation
  • 16. Comments  Human observation is better to make a detailed risk analysis (if number of schools is less) than any algorithmic model.  Lack of scope for the qualitative indicators like;  Sense of the school community.  Core beliefs and values.  Feelings and attachment of the school community etc.  Behavioral and attitudinal aspects