©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Does This Adult Patient Have Septic
Arthritis?
©
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Overview
• Case Scenarios
• Context
• The Evidence
• Populations
• Prior Probability
• Reference Standard
• Test Characteristics
• Hands On!
• Back to the
Case Scenarios
• The Bottom Line
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case Scenario 1
• A 48-year-old woman with rheumatoid
arthritis (RA) is treated with long-term
low-dose prednisone
• Presents to the ED with swollen, tender,
red left knee for 2 days
• No prior swelling, rash, or uveitis
• No recent trauma, surgery, illegal drug
use, or risky sexual behavior
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case Scenario 1
Physical examination
• Afebrile
• Left knee effusion
Laboratory results
• WBC 11000/μL
• ESR 55 mm/hr
Should you do an arthrocentesis?
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case Scenario 1
• Arthrocentesis performed
• Gram stain negative
• Synovial WBC 48 000/μL
• Culture pending
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case Scenario Questions
• What is the likelihood that this patient
has septic arthritis?
• What are the other possible causes for
her symptoms?
• How useful are clinical findings and
results of laboratory tests for making a
diagnosis of septic arthritis?
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case Scenario 2
• An 81-year-old man with diabetes
mellitus and hypertension presents to
clinic with 2 days of left ankle pain
• He has difficulty walking and notes an
exquisitely tender ankle
• Prior episode was clinically diagnosed
as gout
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case Scenario 2
Physical examination
• Febrile to 38.2° C
• Swelling and extreme tenderness of the
dorsal aspect of the midfoot and ankle
• Direct pressure over the ankle confirms
extreme tenderness and swelling
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case Scenario Questions
• What is the likelihood that this patient
has septic arthritis?
• Can gout and septic arthritis occur
together?
• Should an arthrocentesis be performed
and how will it help with making a
diagnosis?
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Why Is Diagnosis Important?
• The most dangerous and destructive
type of acute arthritis
• May result in irreversible joint damage
within days of onset
• Mortality 7%-15% of hospitalized
patients despite antibiotic
administration
Nongonococcal bacterial
arthritis
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Differential Diagnosis
• Most common infectious arthritis
• 2-3 times more common in women
• Often with migratory tenosynovitis
• Gram stain positive in <10% and
culture is often negative
• Less destructive than nongonococcal
arthritis; usually rapid, complete
response to treatment
Gonococcal arthritis
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Differential Diagnosis
• RA
• Systemic lupus erythematosus
• Reactive arthritis
Systemic illnesses
• Crystal induced arthritis: gout and
pseudogout
• Trauma
• Osteoarthritis
Many less destructive arthritides
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Pathogenesis
• Bacteria enter the joint space and
deposit in the synovial membrane
• Spread then occurs to synovial fluid,
leading to inflammation
Joint invasion
• Streptococci and staphylococci most
common nongonococcal bacteria
• Viruses, other bacteria, fungi
mycobacteria, spirochetes are rare
Microbiological findings
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Clinical Presentation
• Nonspecific features of joint pain,
swelling, and stiffness
• Acute onset
• Chills and fever may be present
Many conditions mimic presentation
• Most often monoarticular
• Large joints, especially the knee,
most common
Which joints?
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Who Should Be Evaluated?
• Patients with acutely swollen joints
unrelated to trauma
• Important risk factors
• Recent joint surgery
• Age >80 years
• Diabetes mellitus or RA
• History of hip or knee replacement
• Skin infection
Populations to evaluate for septic arthritis
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Prior Probability
• In patients with an acutely swollen and
painful joint, the probability of septic
arthritis is 8%-27%.
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Reference Standard
• Synovial fluid culture is the generally
accepted reference standard but is
imperfect (sensitivity 75%-95%)
• Clinical standard used in practice
• Positive Gram stain or blood culture in
patient with acutely painful, swollen joint
• Aspiration of pus from the joint space
• Response to antibiotics sometimes used
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Test Characteristics
• Sensitivity
• SnN(–)out: Negative tends to rule out
• Specificity
• SpP(+)in: Positive tends to rule in
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Test Characteristics
• Likelihood Ratio (LR)
• Determined for a particular test result
• Conceptually related to how much more (LR > 1)
or less (LR < 1) likely the disease is, given a
particular test result
• LR = 1 will not change your assessment of the
likelihood of disease, given a particular test result
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Using Likelihood Ratios
Values of Likelihood Ratio: How much do
they affect probability of disease?
• LR = 1 No effect on likelihood
• LR = 3-10 Disease More Likely
• LR = 0.3-0.1 Disease Less Likely
• LR > 10 Disease More Likely
• LR < 0.10 Disease Less Likely
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
increasing impact
Increasing impact
LR: Impact on Likelihood of Disease
LR = 1
No
No
Impact on
Likelihood of
Disease

0
LR = 0.3
Less
Less
Likely
LR = 0.2
Less
Less
Likely
LR = 0.1
Less
Less
Likely
LR = 0.01
Less
Less
Likely
LR = 3
More
More
Likely
LR = 5
More
More
Likely
LR = 10
More
More
Likely
LR = 100
More
More
Likely
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©

0
LR = 0.3
More
More
Impact
LR = 0.2
More
More
Impact
LR = 0.1
More
More
Impact
LR = 0.01
More
More
Impact
LR = 3
More
More
Impact
LR = 5
More
More
Impact
LR = 10
More
More
Impact
LR = 100
More
More
Impact
LR = 1
No
No
Impact
increasing impact
Increasing impact
LR: Impact on Likelihood of Disease
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Risk Factors LR (95% CI)
Skin infection with joint
prosthesis
15 (8.1-28)
Recent joint surgery 6.9 (3.8-12)
Age >80 years 3.5 (1.8-7.0)
Hip or knee prosthesis 3.1 (2.0- 4.9)
Skin infection 2.8 (1.7-4.5)
Diabetes mellitus 2.7 (1.0-6.9)
Rheumatoid arthritis 2.5 (2.0-3.1)
Nongonococcal Septic Arthritis
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Clinical Finding Sensitivity %
(95% CI)
Joint pain 85 (78-90)
History of joint swelling 78 (71-86)
Fever 57 (52-62)
Sweats 27 (20-34)
Rigors 19 (15-24)
©
Likelihood Ratio
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Clinical Finding LR (95% CI)
Presence of fever 0.67 (0.43-1.0)
Absence of fever 1.7 (1.0-3.0)
Serum Laboratory Value
CRP > 100 mg/L 1.6 (1.1-2.5)
CRP ≤ 100 mg/L 0.44 (0.24-0.82)
Peripheral WBC >10 000/μL 1.4 (1.1-1.8)
ESR > 30 mm/h 1.3 (1.1-1.6)
©
Likelihood Ratio
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Synovial Fluid Cell Count
(/μL)
LR (95% CI)
WBC > 100 000 28 (12-66)
WBC > 50 000 7.7 (5.7-11)
WBC > 25 000 2.9 (2.5-3.4)
WBC < 25 000 0.32 (0.23-0.43)
PMNs ≥ 90% 3.4 (2.8-4.2)
PMNs < 90% 0.34 (0.25-0.47)
©
Likelihood Ratio
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Hands On!
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Nomogram for Interpreting LR
• Plot patient’s pretest
probability on left
• Draw straight line
through LR for
given test result
• Line points to
posttest probability
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Return to Case Scenario 1
• A 48-year-old woman with RA is treated
with long-term low-dose prednisone
• Presents to the ED with swollen, tender,
red left knee for 2 days
• No prior swelling, rash, or uveitis
• No recent trauma, surgery, illegal drug
use, or risky sexual behavior
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Return to Case Scenario 1
Physical examination
• Afebrile
• Left knee effusion
Laboratory results
• WBC 11000/μL
• ESR 55 mm/hr
Shuold you do an arthrocentesis?
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Return to Case Scenario 1
• Arthrocentesis performed
• Gram stain negative
• Synovial WBC 48 000/μL
• Culture pending
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case 1 Questions
• What is the likelihood that this patient
has septic arthritis?
• What are the other possible causes for
her symptoms?
• How useful are clinical findings and
results of laboratory tests for making a
diagnosis of septic arthritis?
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Can You Come Up With an LR?
• Yes
• History of RA: LR, 2.5 (2.0-3.1)
• Synovial WBC > 25000/μL: LR, 2.9 (2.5-
3.4)
• Fever: LR, 1.7 (1.0-3.0)
• Elevated ESR: LR, 1.3 (1.1-1.6)
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
18% Pretest
probability of septic
arthritis
History of RA,
LR = 2.5
~36% Posttest
probability
©
Likelihood Ratio
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
8%-27% Pretest
probability of
septic arthritis
18%-48% Posttest
probability
©
Range of Prior Probability
History of RA,
LR = 2.5
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
36% Pretest
probability of septic
arthritis
Synovial fluid
WBC > 25 000/μL,
LR+ = 2.9 ~62% Posttest
probability
©
Likelihood Ratio
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Resolution Case Scenario 1
• This patient presents with an acute
monoarthritis
• Underlying RA increases her probability
of having septic arthritis
• This, combined with a synovial fluid
WBC count > 25000/μL, puts the
probability of septic arthritis in the
range of 62%
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Resolution Case Scenario 1
• The probability of septic arthritis is high
enough and the consequences severe
enough that treatment should be
initiated pending the results of synovial
fluid culture
• Synovial fluid differential WBC count
should also be ordered; if > 90%, this
further supports the probability of septic
arthritis (LR+ 3.4)
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Return to Case Scenario 2
• An 81-year-old man with diabetes
mellitus and hypertension presents to
clinic with 2 days of left ankle pain
• He has difficulty walking and notes an
exquisitely tender ankle
• Prior episode clinically diagnosed as
gout
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Return to Case Scenario 2
Physical examination
• Febrile to 38.2° C
• Swelling and extreme tenderness of the
dorsal aspect of the midfoot and ankle
• Direct pressure over the ankle confirms
extreme tenderness and swelling
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Case 2 Questions
• What is the likelihood that this patient
has septic arthritis?
• Can gout and septic arthritis occur
together?
• Should an arthrocentesis be performed
and how will it help with making a
diagnosis?
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Can You Come Up With an LR?
• Yes
• Age > 80 years: LR 3.5 (1.8-7.0)
• Diabetes mellitus: LR 2.7 (1.0-6.9)
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
18% Pretest
probability of septic
arthritis
Age > 80
years,
LR+ = 3.5
~43% Posttest
probability
©
Likelihood Ratio
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
18% Pretest
probability of septic
arthritis
Diabetes
mellitus,
LR+ = 2.7
~37% Posttest
probability
©
Likelihood Ratio
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Resolution Case Scenario 2
• This patient presents with an acute
monoarthritis and fever
• His advanced age (LR+ 3.5) and
underlying diabetes mellitus (LR+ 2.7)
are risk factors for development of
septic arthritis
• Using a pretest probability of 18%, the
probability of septic arthritis is ~40%
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Resolution Case Scenario 2
• A prior diagnosis of gout (a common
disease) provides an alternative
explanation for symptoms
• Thus, we might choose 8% prior
probability for septic arthritis, which
yield a posttest probability of ~20%
• Arthrocentesis is still warranted to
confirm gout and exclude infection
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
8% Pretest probability
of septic arthritis in a
patient with gout
Diabetes mellitus,
LR+ = 2.7
~19%-23%
Posttest
probability
©
Likelihood Ratio
Age > 80 years,
LR+ = 3.5
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
The Bottom Line
• In patients with acute arthritis, the
underlying cause is difficult to
determine by clinical history and
examination alone.
• Historical elements, including advanced
age, diabetes mellitus, prior joint
surgery and RA are helpful in increasing
the likelihood of septic arthritis in a
patient with acute onset of joint pain.
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
The Bottom Line
• Arthrocentesis will often be warranted
to evaluate for septic arthritis because
consequences of not treating an
infected joint are severe.
• Synovial fluid WBC count and
percentage of PMNs provide the best
utility in evaluating septic arthritis while
awaiting culture results.
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
This Education Guide slide set
has been created as a part of
The Rational Clinical Examination series
Larry Young, MD
Miami VA Health System
University of Miami Miller School of Medicine
Sheri A. Keitz, MD, PhD
Editor, Education Guides
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
Septic Arthritis
Simel DL. “Septic arthritis—make the diagnosis.” In
Simel DL, Rennie D, Keitz SA, eds. The Rational
Clinical Examination: Evidence-Based Clinical
Diagnosis.
http://www.jamaevidence.com/content/3493542
Margaretten ME, Kohlwes J, Moore D, Bent S. “Does
this adult patient have septic arthritis?” In Simel DL,
Rennie D, Keitz SA, eds. The Rational Clinical
Examination: Evidence-Based Clinical Diagnosis.
http://www.jamaevidence.com/content/3493560
©
The Rational Clinical Examination
Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
©
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Septic Arthritis and Osteomyelitis in Children.ppt

  • 1. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Does This Adult Patient Have Septic Arthritis? ©
  • 2. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Overview • Case Scenarios • Context • The Evidence • Populations • Prior Probability • Reference Standard • Test Characteristics • Hands On! • Back to the Case Scenarios • The Bottom Line
  • 3. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case Scenario 1 • A 48-year-old woman with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is treated with long-term low-dose prednisone • Presents to the ED with swollen, tender, red left knee for 2 days • No prior swelling, rash, or uveitis • No recent trauma, surgery, illegal drug use, or risky sexual behavior
  • 4. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case Scenario 1 Physical examination • Afebrile • Left knee effusion Laboratory results • WBC 11000/μL • ESR 55 mm/hr Should you do an arthrocentesis?
  • 5. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case Scenario 1 • Arthrocentesis performed • Gram stain negative • Synovial WBC 48 000/μL • Culture pending
  • 6. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case Scenario Questions • What is the likelihood that this patient has septic arthritis? • What are the other possible causes for her symptoms? • How useful are clinical findings and results of laboratory tests for making a diagnosis of septic arthritis?
  • 7. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case Scenario 2 • An 81-year-old man with diabetes mellitus and hypertension presents to clinic with 2 days of left ankle pain • He has difficulty walking and notes an exquisitely tender ankle • Prior episode was clinically diagnosed as gout
  • 8. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case Scenario 2 Physical examination • Febrile to 38.2° C • Swelling and extreme tenderness of the dorsal aspect of the midfoot and ankle • Direct pressure over the ankle confirms extreme tenderness and swelling
  • 9. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case Scenario Questions • What is the likelihood that this patient has septic arthritis? • Can gout and septic arthritis occur together? • Should an arthrocentesis be performed and how will it help with making a diagnosis?
  • 10. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Why Is Diagnosis Important? • The most dangerous and destructive type of acute arthritis • May result in irreversible joint damage within days of onset • Mortality 7%-15% of hospitalized patients despite antibiotic administration Nongonococcal bacterial arthritis
  • 11. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Differential Diagnosis • Most common infectious arthritis • 2-3 times more common in women • Often with migratory tenosynovitis • Gram stain positive in <10% and culture is often negative • Less destructive than nongonococcal arthritis; usually rapid, complete response to treatment Gonococcal arthritis
  • 12. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Differential Diagnosis • RA • Systemic lupus erythematosus • Reactive arthritis Systemic illnesses • Crystal induced arthritis: gout and pseudogout • Trauma • Osteoarthritis Many less destructive arthritides
  • 13. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Pathogenesis • Bacteria enter the joint space and deposit in the synovial membrane • Spread then occurs to synovial fluid, leading to inflammation Joint invasion • Streptococci and staphylococci most common nongonococcal bacteria • Viruses, other bacteria, fungi mycobacteria, spirochetes are rare Microbiological findings
  • 14. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Clinical Presentation • Nonspecific features of joint pain, swelling, and stiffness • Acute onset • Chills and fever may be present Many conditions mimic presentation • Most often monoarticular • Large joints, especially the knee, most common Which joints?
  • 15. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Who Should Be Evaluated? • Patients with acutely swollen joints unrelated to trauma • Important risk factors • Recent joint surgery • Age >80 years • Diabetes mellitus or RA • History of hip or knee replacement • Skin infection Populations to evaluate for septic arthritis
  • 16. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Prior Probability • In patients with an acutely swollen and painful joint, the probability of septic arthritis is 8%-27%.
  • 17. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Reference Standard • Synovial fluid culture is the generally accepted reference standard but is imperfect (sensitivity 75%-95%) • Clinical standard used in practice • Positive Gram stain or blood culture in patient with acutely painful, swollen joint • Aspiration of pus from the joint space • Response to antibiotics sometimes used
  • 18. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Test Characteristics • Sensitivity • SnN(–)out: Negative tends to rule out • Specificity • SpP(+)in: Positive tends to rule in
  • 19. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Test Characteristics • Likelihood Ratio (LR) • Determined for a particular test result • Conceptually related to how much more (LR > 1) or less (LR < 1) likely the disease is, given a particular test result • LR = 1 will not change your assessment of the likelihood of disease, given a particular test result
  • 20. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Using Likelihood Ratios Values of Likelihood Ratio: How much do they affect probability of disease? • LR = 1 No effect on likelihood • LR = 3-10 Disease More Likely • LR = 0.3-0.1 Disease Less Likely • LR > 10 Disease More Likely • LR < 0.10 Disease Less Likely
  • 21. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © increasing impact Increasing impact LR: Impact on Likelihood of Disease LR = 1 No No Impact on Likelihood of Disease  0 LR = 0.3 Less Less Likely LR = 0.2 Less Less Likely LR = 0.1 Less Less Likely LR = 0.01 Less Less Likely LR = 3 More More Likely LR = 5 More More Likely LR = 10 More More Likely LR = 100 More More Likely
  • 22. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. ©  0 LR = 0.3 More More Impact LR = 0.2 More More Impact LR = 0.1 More More Impact LR = 0.01 More More Impact LR = 3 More More Impact LR = 5 More More Impact LR = 10 More More Impact LR = 100 More More Impact LR = 1 No No Impact increasing impact Increasing impact LR: Impact on Likelihood of Disease
  • 23. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Risk Factors LR (95% CI) Skin infection with joint prosthesis 15 (8.1-28) Recent joint surgery 6.9 (3.8-12) Age >80 years 3.5 (1.8-7.0) Hip or knee prosthesis 3.1 (2.0- 4.9) Skin infection 2.8 (1.7-4.5) Diabetes mellitus 2.7 (1.0-6.9) Rheumatoid arthritis 2.5 (2.0-3.1) Nongonococcal Septic Arthritis
  • 24. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Clinical Finding Sensitivity % (95% CI) Joint pain 85 (78-90) History of joint swelling 78 (71-86) Fever 57 (52-62) Sweats 27 (20-34) Rigors 19 (15-24) © Likelihood Ratio
  • 25. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Clinical Finding LR (95% CI) Presence of fever 0.67 (0.43-1.0) Absence of fever 1.7 (1.0-3.0) Serum Laboratory Value CRP > 100 mg/L 1.6 (1.1-2.5) CRP ≤ 100 mg/L 0.44 (0.24-0.82) Peripheral WBC >10 000/μL 1.4 (1.1-1.8) ESR > 30 mm/h 1.3 (1.1-1.6) © Likelihood Ratio
  • 26. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Synovial Fluid Cell Count (/μL) LR (95% CI) WBC > 100 000 28 (12-66) WBC > 50 000 7.7 (5.7-11) WBC > 25 000 2.9 (2.5-3.4) WBC < 25 000 0.32 (0.23-0.43) PMNs ≥ 90% 3.4 (2.8-4.2) PMNs < 90% 0.34 (0.25-0.47) © Likelihood Ratio
  • 27. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Hands On!
  • 28. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Nomogram for Interpreting LR • Plot patient’s pretest probability on left • Draw straight line through LR for given test result • Line points to posttest probability
  • 29. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Return to Case Scenario 1 • A 48-year-old woman with RA is treated with long-term low-dose prednisone • Presents to the ED with swollen, tender, red left knee for 2 days • No prior swelling, rash, or uveitis • No recent trauma, surgery, illegal drug use, or risky sexual behavior
  • 30. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Return to Case Scenario 1 Physical examination • Afebrile • Left knee effusion Laboratory results • WBC 11000/μL • ESR 55 mm/hr Shuold you do an arthrocentesis?
  • 31. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Return to Case Scenario 1 • Arthrocentesis performed • Gram stain negative • Synovial WBC 48 000/μL • Culture pending
  • 32. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case 1 Questions • What is the likelihood that this patient has septic arthritis? • What are the other possible causes for her symptoms? • How useful are clinical findings and results of laboratory tests for making a diagnosis of septic arthritis?
  • 33. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Can You Come Up With an LR? • Yes • History of RA: LR, 2.5 (2.0-3.1) • Synovial WBC > 25000/μL: LR, 2.9 (2.5- 3.4) • Fever: LR, 1.7 (1.0-3.0) • Elevated ESR: LR, 1.3 (1.1-1.6)
  • 34. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © 18% Pretest probability of septic arthritis History of RA, LR = 2.5 ~36% Posttest probability © Likelihood Ratio
  • 35. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © 8%-27% Pretest probability of septic arthritis 18%-48% Posttest probability © Range of Prior Probability History of RA, LR = 2.5
  • 36. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © 36% Pretest probability of septic arthritis Synovial fluid WBC > 25 000/μL, LR+ = 2.9 ~62% Posttest probability © Likelihood Ratio
  • 37. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Resolution Case Scenario 1 • This patient presents with an acute monoarthritis • Underlying RA increases her probability of having septic arthritis • This, combined with a synovial fluid WBC count > 25000/μL, puts the probability of septic arthritis in the range of 62%
  • 38. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Resolution Case Scenario 1 • The probability of septic arthritis is high enough and the consequences severe enough that treatment should be initiated pending the results of synovial fluid culture • Synovial fluid differential WBC count should also be ordered; if > 90%, this further supports the probability of septic arthritis (LR+ 3.4)
  • 39. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Return to Case Scenario 2 • An 81-year-old man with diabetes mellitus and hypertension presents to clinic with 2 days of left ankle pain • He has difficulty walking and notes an exquisitely tender ankle • Prior episode clinically diagnosed as gout
  • 40. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Return to Case Scenario 2 Physical examination • Febrile to 38.2° C • Swelling and extreme tenderness of the dorsal aspect of the midfoot and ankle • Direct pressure over the ankle confirms extreme tenderness and swelling
  • 41. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Case 2 Questions • What is the likelihood that this patient has septic arthritis? • Can gout and septic arthritis occur together? • Should an arthrocentesis be performed and how will it help with making a diagnosis?
  • 42. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Can You Come Up With an LR? • Yes • Age > 80 years: LR 3.5 (1.8-7.0) • Diabetes mellitus: LR 2.7 (1.0-6.9)
  • 43. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © 18% Pretest probability of septic arthritis Age > 80 years, LR+ = 3.5 ~43% Posttest probability © Likelihood Ratio
  • 44. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © 18% Pretest probability of septic arthritis Diabetes mellitus, LR+ = 2.7 ~37% Posttest probability © Likelihood Ratio
  • 45. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Resolution Case Scenario 2 • This patient presents with an acute monoarthritis and fever • His advanced age (LR+ 3.5) and underlying diabetes mellitus (LR+ 2.7) are risk factors for development of septic arthritis • Using a pretest probability of 18%, the probability of septic arthritis is ~40%
  • 46. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Resolution Case Scenario 2 • A prior diagnosis of gout (a common disease) provides an alternative explanation for symptoms • Thus, we might choose 8% prior probability for septic arthritis, which yield a posttest probability of ~20% • Arthrocentesis is still warranted to confirm gout and exclude infection
  • 47. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © 8% Pretest probability of septic arthritis in a patient with gout Diabetes mellitus, LR+ = 2.7 ~19%-23% Posttest probability © Likelihood Ratio Age > 80 years, LR+ = 3.5
  • 48. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © The Bottom Line • In patients with acute arthritis, the underlying cause is difficult to determine by clinical history and examination alone. • Historical elements, including advanced age, diabetes mellitus, prior joint surgery and RA are helpful in increasing the likelihood of septic arthritis in a patient with acute onset of joint pain.
  • 49. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © The Bottom Line • Arthrocentesis will often be warranted to evaluate for septic arthritis because consequences of not treating an infected joint are severe. • Synovial fluid WBC count and percentage of PMNs provide the best utility in evaluating septic arthritis while awaiting culture results.
  • 50. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © This Education Guide slide set has been created as a part of The Rational Clinical Examination series Larry Young, MD Miami VA Health System University of Miami Miller School of Medicine Sheri A. Keitz, MD, PhD Editor, Education Guides
  • 51. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Septic Arthritis Simel DL. “Septic arthritis—make the diagnosis.” In Simel DL, Rennie D, Keitz SA, eds. The Rational Clinical Examination: Evidence-Based Clinical Diagnosis. http://www.jamaevidence.com/content/3493542 Margaretten ME, Kohlwes J, Moore D, Bent S. “Does this adult patient have septic arthritis?” In Simel DL, Rennie D, Keitz SA, eds. The Rational Clinical Examination: Evidence-Based Clinical Diagnosis. http://www.jamaevidence.com/content/3493560
  • 52. © The Rational Clinical Examination Copyright © American Medical Association. All rights reserved. | JAMA | The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © Terms of Use: The Rational Clinical Examination Education Guides PowerPoint Usage Guidelines JAMAevidence users may display, download, or print out PowerPoint slides and images associated with the site for personal and educational use only. Educational use refers to classroom teaching, lectures, presentations, rounds, and other instructional activities, such as displaying, linking to, downloading, printing, and making and distributing multiple copies of said isolated materials in both print and electronic format. Users will only display, distribute, or otherwise make such PowerPoint slides and images from the applicable JAMAevidence materials available to students or other persons attending in-person presentations, lectures, rounds, or other similar instructional activities presented or given by User. Commercial use of the PowerPoint slides and images are not permitted under this agreement. Users may modify the content of downloaded PowerPoint slides only for educational (non-commercial) use; however, the source and attribution may not be modified. Users may not otherwise copy, print, transmit, rent, lend, sell, or modify any images from JAMAevidence or modify or remove any proprietary notices contained therein, or create derivative works based on materials therefrom. They also may not disseminate any portion of the applicable JAMAevidence site subscribed to hereunder through electronic means except as outlined above, including mail lists or electronic bulletin boards.

Editor's Notes

  • #1: Welcome to the Education Guides portion of The Rational Clinical Examination series. Teaching tips and notes for making sessions relevant and interactive will be included in the notes pages of selected slides. Throughout the Education Guides, the following ABC’S may be highlighted in the notes pages: A: Slide contains animation geared to increase interactivity. B: Slide contains basic principles related to teaching diagnosis. These slides are part of a uniform set that will be used throughout the Education Guides. C: Slide contains an opportunity to increase relevance and interactivity through use of cases or by asking the learners to commit to a specific answer that can be used for discussion and for anchoring their responses. One easy, inexpensive, and fun strategy is to hand out blank file cards at the start of the session and have learners use them to write down their numeric guesses of probabilities. These cards can be passed around the room in order to “blind” the process. Once the learners have written down their estimates, they can pass the cards around the room so that no one is holding their own card and can report on what is in front of them without identifying their own answers. This contributes to a safe learning environment in which learners are not afraid to make honest guesses. S: Slide contains a stumbling block.
  • #2: C: You can enhance relevance and interactivity by always anchoring your session with 1 or more cases selected to illustrate key points (ie, select patient characteristics that are relevant to the question at hand). The Education Guides slides will always start with cases from The Rational Clinical Examination Articles and/or Updates. However, educators could choose to use cases from their own or their learners’ experiences.
  • #3: ED indicates emergency department. Learners can be asked to identify what they think the relevant portions of this case are and whether these increase or decrease the likelihood of septic arthritis. Historical features they may consider include Monoarticular presentation Underlying rheumatoid arthritis Long-term steroid use Time course of presentation
  • #4: ESR indicates erythrocyte sedimentation rate; WBC, white blood cell. What about physical examination findings and laboratory findings? Absence of fever Left knee effusion Leukocytosis Elevated ESR Before going on to the next slide, ask your learners whether they would do an arthrocentesis. Ask them to justify their choices and to specifically identify what principles and findings they are using. This discussion can serve as a starting point for teaching the concept of action threshold. When do we decide to take an action (eg, an arthrocentesis)? How do we balance the potential benefits with the potential risks?
  • #5: WBC indicates white blood cell. In this scenario, the tap is performed, and we can consider the findings.
  • #6: C: Ask learners to commit to a “guesstimate” of probability on a blank file card. Once learners have responded, you can consider the use of a stem and leaf plot to quickly record the distribution of probabilities guessed to come up with a “group” guesstimate. Hold on to this estimate as you can use it later. Try to get participants to identify both serious and more benign causes of acute arthritis, and use this to illustrate why making a diagnosis is important.
  • #7: Ask participants to identify what they think the relevant portions of this case are, and whether these increase or decrease the likelihood of septic arthritis. Features to discuss here might include Monoarticular presentation Prior episodes diagnosed as gout
  • #8: C indicates centigrade.
  • #9: C: Ask learners to commit to a “guesstimate” of probability on a blank file card. Once learners have responded, you can consider the use of a stem and leaf plot to quickly record the distribution of probabilities guessed to come up with a “group” guesstimate. Hold on to this estimate as you can use it later. The relationship between gout and septic arthritis could serve as a good opportunity to discuss both prior probability and action thresholds. Although gout and septic arthritis can occur together, they most often do not. Thus, the presence of a common disorder such as gout actually should change your prior probability of a less common disorder such as septic arthritis. In addition, your learners will need to assess their action threshold either for arthrocentesis or for starting antibiotics in the context of a possible gouty flare, instead of septic arthritis.
  • #12: A full listing of diseases that make up the differential diagnosis for acute monoarticular arthritis is presented in Box 65-1 of the Septic Arthritis chapter at www.jamaevidence.com; however, this slide represents the most common entities.
  • #14: Many conditions including crystal arthritis and systemic diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis, can present with fever, joint swelling, pain, and stiffness, mimicking the clinical presentation of septic arthritis.
  • #16: S: Slide contains a frequent stumbling block. Prior probability: Many learners will stumble when trying to come up with a prior probability. This is the first opportunity to go back to the learners' original file card “guesstimates” to discuss how they came up with those numbers. For history and physical examination (H&P) in The Rational Clinical Examination series, the pre-“test” probability is the pre-“H&P” probability or the prevalence. This will be true for all of The Rational Clinical Examination Education Guides. Frequently, learners will try to include elements of the H&P in their assessment, rather than using prevalence. If they do this, they will ultimately overestimate the effect of the clinical examination. The range of prior probabilities for septic arthritis comes from 2 prospective studies of septic arthritis. 1. Shmerling RH, Delbanco TL, Tosteson AN, Trentham DE. Synovial fluid tests: what should be ordered? JAMA. 1990;264(80):1009-1014. [PMID: 2198352] 2. Jeng GW, Wang CR, Liu ST, et al. Measurement of synovial tumor necrosis factor-alpha in diagnosing emergency patients with bacterial arthritis. Am J Emerg Med. 1997;15(7):626-629. [PMID: 9375540]
  • #17: Synovial fluid culture is the generally accepted reference standard, but it is not perfect (sensitivity 75%-95%).1 Thus, a positive gram stain, positive blood cultures in a patient with acutely swollen and painful joint, aspiration of pus from the joint space, or response to antibiotics are sometimes used in clinical practice as the reference standard for septic arthritis 1. Shmerling RH. Synovial fluid analysis. A critical reappraisal. Rheum Dis Clin North Am. 1994;20(2):503-512. [PMID: 8016423]
  • #18: B: Slide contains basic principles related to teaching diagnosis. These slides are part of a uniform set that should be used throughout the Education Guides to review and clarify these core principles.   The commonly used mnemonics SnNout for sensitivity and SpPin for specificity are helpful in guiding learners to remember the direction of sensitivity and specificity with respect to a 2 × 2 table and in defining how a test with high sensitivity or specificity operates. It is important to remember that the test characteristic itself does not “rule in” or “rule out” anything. Rather, a test result modifies a pretest probability (also known as prior probability) to change the likelihood of disease in a particular individual. Sensitivity SnN(–)OUT: High-sensitivity negative tends to “rule out” disease. Specificity SpP(+)IN: High-specificity positive tends to “rule in” disease.
  • #19: B: Slide contains basic principles related to teaching diagnosis: Likelihood Ratio. S: When teaching the principles of LRs, a frequent stumbling block relates to the fact that an LR is calculated for each test result. For categorical tests in which the results fall into a number of non-numeric categories (eg, yes/no or present/absent), an LR will be calculated for each test result. For continuous test results (eg, measurement of jugular venous pulse [JVP] in cm), cutoffs are defined and a different LR is calculated for each cutpoint defined (eg, JVP > 3 cm above the sternal notch).
  • #20: B: Slide contains basic principles related to teaching diagnosis: Likelihood Ratio. Learners will frequently want to have an overall sense of what defines a “good” LR vs a “bad” LR. However, values of LRs are more accurately part of a spectrum in which an LR of 1 has no impact on pretest probability and both high numbers for LR and small fractions for LR have a greater impact on the pretest probability.
  • #21: B: Slide contains basic principles related to teaching diagnosis: Likelihood Ratio. A: Slide uses animation to graphically illustrate the concept that LR has greater impact on pretest probability as it moves away from the central line of LR = 1, where the test result will not differentiate disease from no disease. Note that animation in this slide is fully automated (ie, you do not need to do anything) and is used to provide a different way of describing how to interpret LRs that may appeal to visual learners.
  • #22: B: Slide contains basic principles related to teaching diagnosis: Likelihood Ratio. This follow-up slide allows you to clarify that the LRs on each side of 1 have equal differentiating power (eg, LR = 10 is just as powerful as LR = 0.1). LR = 10 increases the likelihood of disease for a given test result, whereas LR = 0.1 decreases likelihood of disease with the same power for a given test result. S: When teaching LR, a frequent stumbling block is comparing LRs and creating rank order. From this slide and the prior slide it can be seen that, in order to directly compare LRs in terms of their diagnostic power, a clinician would have to compare LRs that are >1 to the inverse of LRs that are <1. However, LRs >1 can continue to infinity, while LRs <1 have a much narrow range of 0-0.99. Thus, these scales are not directly comparable. Fortunately, it is easy to compare because all you need to do is take the value 1/LR for values <1 and compare it to the LR for values >1. The value that is greater (1/LR vs LR) has greater diagnostic power in that it will move the posttest probability further from the pretest probability. For example, LR = 0.01 is far more powerful than LR = 5, because 1/0.01 = 100, which is much greater than the LR of 5.
  • #23: These risk factors were identified from a prospective cohort study (Kaandorp CJ, Van Schaardenburg D, Krijnen P, Habbema JD, van de Laar MA. Risk factors for septic arthritis in patients with joint disease: a prospective study. Arthritis Rheum. 1995;38:1.819-1825. [PMID: 8849354]). The LRs for the absence of these findings can be seen in Table 65-4 in the chapter on Septic Arthritis at www.jamaevidence.com. However, the LRs are not very useful (LRs are close to 1), thus, we have not listed them here. You can explain to your learners that they should assess both the magnitude of the summary LR and also the range of the confidence interval. Findings that have wide confidence intervals that include 1 should be viewed with caution.
  • #24: Ask your learners how to interpret this slide. Why would a study present only sensitivities? Consideration of the 2x2 table would remind your learners that sensitivity applies only to patients who have disease, in this case, patients who have been diagnosed with septic arthritis. Thus, 85% of patients with septic arthritis have joint pain; 57% have fever. Frequently we have studies in which the authors are studying only people who have been diagnosed with disease (eg, septic arthritis) without a group of patients who do not have disease. In such a case you can only calculate sensitivity. Thus, these numbers do not tell us anything about patients without septic arthritis.
  • #25: CRP indicates C-reactive protein; WBC, white blood cell. One single study assessed the LR of fever (Kortekangas P, Aro HT, Tuominen J, Toivanen A. Synovial fluid leukocytosis in bacterial arthritis vs. reactive arthritis and rheumatoid arthritis in the adult knee. Scand J Rheumatol. 1992;21(6):283-288. [PMID: 1475638]). In this study, perhaps counter to intuition, the presence of fever actually decreased the likelihood of septic arthritis while the absence of fever increased the likelihood and both of these confidence intervals included 1. No studies evaluated other findings such as tenderness to palpation, edema or range of motion of the affected joint. Similarly the serum laboratory tests were not very powerful diagnostic tests, with likelihood ratios that are close to 1. At this point you can go back and reflect on the learners’ initial responses to the cases. Learners may have thought that the presence of fever, elevated peripheral WBC, or elevated ESR were associated with an increased likelihood of septic arthritis. You can reinforce the importance of knowing which clinical findings are not particularly helpful, in addition to knowing which findings are. Although the LRs for peripheral WBC count <10 000/μL (0.28, 0.07-1.10) and ESR < 30 ( 0.17, 0.20-1.30) are small (far from 1), they both have confidence intervals that are fairly wide that include 1.
  • #26: PMNs indicates polymorphonuclear cells. Two trends should be noted: (1) The higher the synovial WBC count (above 25 000/μL), the more useful this test result is in increasing the probability of septic arthritis, and (2) a synovial fluid WBC count below 25 000 or a PMN count below 90% are modestly helpful in decreasing the probability of septic arthritis. No LR confirms or excludes the diagnosis as the final probability will depend on where you started, that is, the pretest probability.
  • #27: Handouts are both necessary and helpful for hands-on learning. For this exercise the following handouts may be considered: The nomogram (next slide) Slide(s) with prior probability information Slide(s) with LRs
  • #28: B: Slide contains basic principles related to teaching diagnosis. The nomogram allows a clinician to move directly from pretest probability (on the left side of the nomogram), through the LR, to the posttest probability on the right, without having to convert from probability to odds and back again. Many educators use the nomogram to visually illustrate the impact of an LR on a pretest probability. For naïve learners who may never have seen the nomogram before, be sure to orient them to the 3 vertical axes of the nomogram. Note that most clinicians do not carry around the nomogram. Some use LR calculators that can be downloaded onto a handheld personal digital computer. Many simply have a sense from experience with the nomogram as to how much a certain LR will affect pretest probability. See the online LR nomogram calculator available in JAMAevidence at http://www.jamaevidence.com/calculators/9000026.
  • #32: C: We can now return to these estimates to discuss in light of the data that has been presented.
  • #33: A: Slide contains animation geared to increase interactivity.
  • #34: The pretest probability of 18% was selected as the midpoint of the range of prevalence estimates (8%-27%). Ask your learners if this is reasonable. What would happen to the posttest probability if we used 8%? What if we used 27%? The answer is illustrated in the next slide.
  • #35: This slide visually illustrates the range of prior probabilities. The posttest probability would range from 18% to 48%. Are they comfortable with that range?
  • #36: This slide brings up the topic of sequential testing. Ask learners why the starting probability is 36%, rather than 18% as in the last slide. Here we are making the assumption that the history of RA has increased the probability of septic arthritis from 18% to 36%. Because the synovial fluid WBC count is a test that is independent from the history of RA, we can perform sequential testing and assume that the LR of WBC > 25 000/μL can be applied to the 36% probability of septic arthritis in a patient with RA. Sequential testing is done to improve our probability estimates as long as the tests we are using in sequence are independent. If they are not independent (eg, 2 physical findings) it would not be valid to perform sequential testing. Learners who wish to delve deeper into this topic can be referred to Education Guide for the chapter, A Primer on the Precision and Accuracy of the Clinical Examination. Some learners might not agree that these tests are independent. It could be argued that patients with RA might have an elevated synovial fluid WBC on the basis of their RA. If this comes up, it is a great opportunity to discuss the role of uncertainty in clinical decision making.
  • #38: You can ask your learners about their action threshold, the probability at which they would start antibiotics. For many clinicians a posttest probability of 62% is already high enough to warrant action. If that is the case, then the additional information provided by the synovial fluid differential WBC may not alter your actions. Also, this is an opportunity to return to the question of sequential testing. If you did get a differential WBC, what would you use for the pretest probability, 18%, 36%, or 62%? In this case you could use the 36% but could not justifiably use 62% because the synovial WBC count and the synovial WBC differential are not independent of each other. Using a pretest probability of 36% and an LR+ 3.4, you would get a posttest probability of 66%. Arguably, a low synovial fluid PMN count (<90%) might raise your awareness of different diagnoses (eg, cancer or tuberculosis instead of bacterial infection).
  • #41: We can now return to the original estimates provided by the learners and apply the LRs and probabilities that have been presented.
  • #42: A: Slide contains animation geared to increase interactivity.
  • #43: Once again, the pretest probability of 18% is the midpoint between 8% and 27%.
  • #44: Ask your learners whether they think it is valid to use these 2 likelihood ratios sequentially. In this case, it is not valid because the risk factors of advancing age and the presence of diabetes mellitus are not likely to be independent, so you would be overestimating impact if you used them sequentially. Thus, for both this slide and the prior slide, the pretest probability used is 18%.
  • #45: The posttest probability of septic arthritis is estimated to be approximately 40% (43% posttest probability using age as a risk factor and 37% using diabetes mellitus as a risk factor).
  • #46: The practice of medicine includes elements of decision making in the context of clinical experience. In this case, most experienced providers would factor in the history of gout as an alternative diagnosis and would lower their estimate that the presentation was due to septic arthritis. Even though we do not have a LR to numerically define how much we should decrease our estimate, we use our judgment. For septic arthritis we were presented with a range of prior probabilities from 8% to 27%. Thus, it seems reasonable to assign this patient to a pretest probability at the low end of this range, 8%. If we use 8%, the posttest probability is ~20%, which most clinicians would consider too high to risk the severe consequences of untreated infection. Arthrocentesis should be performed to help confirm the diagnosis of gout and exclude infection.
  • #47: For visual learners, this is the nomogram that illustrates the probability estimates described in the prior slide.
  • #49: PMNs indicates polymorphonuclear cells; WBC, white blood cell.
  • #50: This Education Guide slide set has been created as a part of The Rational Clinical Examination series. The content for each Education Guide slide set comes directly and exclusively from relevant chapters in The Rational Clinical Examination book. You can link to this chapter if you are on a networked computer with access to the JAMAevidence Web site through the hyperlinks contained in the references to the chapter on the next slide.