Session 43 Per Kågeson
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The document analyzes the climate impact of investing in high-speed rail infrastructure for inter-city passenger transport compared to other modes like cars, buses, conventional and high-speed trains, and aviation. It calculates the greenhouse gas emissions per passenger kilometer for different modes and assumes how traffic may shift from other modes to high-speed rail. Based on a hypothetical example of a new 500km high-speed rail line generating 1 million trips per year, it estimates it could reduce emissions by around 9,000 tons annually but that emissions from construction may take decades to offset. It concludes that the climate benefits of high-speed rail are small and other lower-cost measures may be better for reducing transport greenhouse gas emissions.
Session 43 Per Kågeson
- 1. Metodval vid beräkning av klimateffekten av intercitytrafik Per Kågeson Transportforum 2010
- 2. Inter-city passenger traffic is a segment of passenger transport where aviation, cars, buses, conventional trains, and high speed trains naturally compete for market shares
- 3. The task The objective is to analyze whether investment in high speed rail infrastructure is justified when the goal is to reduce the environmental impact of inter-city passenger transport The potential benefits from travelling at average speeds below 100 km/h are disregarded in the choice of alternatives
- 4. Analyzing long-term effects Ideally the benefits should be calculated year-by-year and discounted into present value However, no expert can tell us what vehicles and engines may look like 30-40 years from now In this paper therefore the expected best new vehicle and fuel technologies of 2025 are used as a proxy for the entire depreciation period
- 5. Focusing on greenhouse gases By 2025 all tailpipe emissions from new vessels and vehicles are assumed to have been reduced to sustainable levels All power plant emissions are also assumed to have been reduced to sustainable levels Noise, land use and intrusion are disregarded as they are to a large extent site-specific Greenhouse gas emissions are studied in a tank-to wheels or grid-to-wheels perspective
- 6. The electricity consumption per train seat kilometer depends on Train length Number of seats per length meter Aerodynamics Weight Tunnel length and tunnel diameter Average speed and top speed Number of stops and accelerations/decelerations Engine efficiency and degree of regenerative braking
- 7. No marginal cost-curves for efficiency improvement in high speed rail All else equal, energy consumption for moving the train increases with the square of speed High speed trains should therefore be able to afford to invest more in reducing the drag than conventional fast trains However, the marginal cost-curve may be rather flat Longer trains and more seats per train meter may also reduce specific consumption
- 8. Marginal effects When studying change, marginal effects is what matters The paper assumes that the marginal electricity is produced in power plants that use hard coal during the first two decades, followed by natural gas during the next three The 2025 cars and buses with IC engines are assumed marginally to run on a mix of 80% diesel/gasoline and 20% biofuel
- 9. Electricity production in OECD Europe
- 10. Electricity consumption by fuel in the OECD + 2030 scenario 450 (World Energy Outlook, 2008)
- 11. Effects of cap-and-trade In Europe it has been argued that emissions caused by trains may be disregarded as the total emissions from electricity production is subject to cap-and-trade and cannot rise However, emissions from all modes may be subject to a cap as proposed in the US Rising demand will make the price of allowances increase, and a high price may make politicians hesitate about future reduction targets
- 12. Other greenhouse gases than CO 2 The total radiative forcing from short range commercial aviation is assumed to amount to 1.5 of the emission of CO 2 (alone) GHG emissions other than CO 2 from road fuels and electricity production are assumed to be small and are therefore disregarded
- 13. Gram CO 2equiv. per seat km Mode Emission Cars with IC engines 18.3 All-electric cars 21.2 Long-distance buses 10.5 Fast trains (average 150 km/h) 9.5 High speed trains (average 280 km/h) 15.4 Short range aircraft 93.8
- 14. Assumed average load factors Mode Factor Cars with IC engines 0.40 All-electric cars 0.40 Long-distance buses 0.55 Fast trains (average 150 km/h) 0.65 High speed trains (average 280 km/h) 0.75 Short range aircraft 0.80
- 15. Gram CO 2equiv. per passenger km Mode Emission Cars with IC engines 45.8 All-electric cars 53.0 Long-distance buses 19.1 Fast trains (average 150 km/h) 14.6 High speed trains (average 280 km/h) 20.6 Short range aircraft 117.2
- 16. Traffic generated by investment in high speed rail line, an example Share of traffic % Diverted from aviation 20 Diverted from cars 20 Diverted from buses 5 Total shift 45 Generated new traffic 25 Total increase in train traffic 70 Pre-existing train passengers 30 Total traffic by train 100
- 17. Effects on CO 2 emissions per 1 million 500 km trips Tons Diverted from aviation -9,660 Diverted from cars -2,620 Diverted from buses +38 Generated new traffic +2,575 Pre-existing train passengers +900 Total traffic by train -8,767
- 18. Sensitivity analysis, an example Reducing the marginal climate effect from electricity consumption by half compared to the main scenario and raising the share of total traffic that is diverted from aviation to 30% (and reducing the car share to 10%) would in combination reduce emissions from every one million trips by about 16,000 tons .
- 19. GHG emissions from building the line Building a 500 km new high speed line usually requires lots of tunnels and bridges The GHG-emissions from construction may amount to several million ton CO 2 Depending on traffic intensity and site-specific circumstances it may take 20-60 years to offset the emissions caused by the construction work
- 20. The economic value The market price of CO 2 may be about €40 per ton in 2025 When emissions are reduced by 9,000 tons per 1 million passengers per 500 km, a total number of 10 million trips/year would generate less than €4 million worth of GHG emission benefits (or €200 million over 50 y). According to the UIC, the cost of building a 500 km line amounts to €6,000-15,000 million
- 21. Conclusions The GHG benefit of high speed rail is small and may be negative when account is taken of emissions from building the line Fast conventional trains emit substantially less and require sometimes only moderate investment in up-grading of the existing infrastructure Numerous opportunities exist to reduce transport GHG by less costly measures Other benefits may justify investment in high speed rail but high traffic volumes are required
- 22. Höghastighetstågsutredningen Redovisar inget beräkningsunderlag Men det visar sig att man räknat med: 2-5 ggr högre faktor för flyget än CO2 Dagens emissionsnivå för bilar och bussar SJ:s miljökalkylator används för tåg ≈ 0 40% av den nya tågtrafiken förväntas tas från bilismen och 21% från flyget