Day1 session3 modelling
Download as PPTX, PDF0 likes121 views
This document presents the assumptions, results, and use of a model for designing a green public transport investment programme in Kazakhstan. It outlines the costs of different bus types (CNG, LPG, diesel) and infrastructure. Modelling was conducted for pilot cities Kostanay and Shymkent, finding it would cost $6.4 million and $3.5 million respectively to replace old buses, reducing emissions significantly. The Excel model can then be applied nationwide to calculate costs and emissions reductions based on user-defined targets.
![– Calculation of the environmental effect:
difference between emissions from new and old
diesel buses
Assumptions used for calculating
costs of the programme
CO2
[kg/km]
CO
[g/km]
NOx
[g/km]
PM 2.5
[g/km]
SO2
[g/km]
CNG bus 0.9350 0.2400 2.5000 0.0050 0.0000
LPG bus 1.0258 1.9200 5.0000 0.0050 0.0652
Diesel EURO6 bus 0.7632 0.2230 0.5970 0.0023 0.0205
New diesel bus (<5 years) 1.0812 2.4400 10.7000 0.2200 0.2050
Diesel bus (> 5 years) 1.1893 2.6840 11.7700 0.2420 0.2255
Diesel bus (> 10 years) 1.2974 2.9280 12.8400 0.2640 0.2460
Diesel bus (> 15 years) 1.4056 3.1720 13.9100 0.2860 0.2665](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/day1session3modellingrafalstanekenglish-170324171635/85/Day1-session3-modelling-6-320.jpg)
![Results of modelling – Kostanay
- total costs of the pilot programme in Kostanay
will be KZT 6 421 million, KZT 3 342 million from
private sources and 3 079 million KZT from the
programme
- it is assumed that no price increase will be needed
to implement the programme
- reduction of pollution will be as follows:
CO2
[t]
CO
[kg]
NOx
[kg]
PM 2.5
[kg]
SO2
[kg]
Emission reduction per
year
5 013 16 526 117 612 3 709 2 657](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/day1session3modellingrafalstanekenglish-170324171635/85/Day1-session3-modelling-8-320.jpg)
![Results of modelling – Shymkent
- total costs of the pilot programme in Shymkent
will be KZT 3 531 million, KZT 1 826 million from
private sources and KZT 1 705 million from the
programme
- it is assumed that no price increase will be needed
to implement the programme
- reduction of pollution will be as follows:
CO2
[t]
CO
[kg]
NOx
[kg]
PM 2.5
[kg]
SO2
[kg]
Emission reduction per
year
2 827 18 723 72 552 1 798 1 706](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/day1session3modellingrafalstanekenglish-170324171635/85/Day1-session3-modelling-9-320.jpg)
Day1 session3 modelling
- 1. PROGRAMME COSTING AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT – PRESENTATION OF THE MODEL Rafał Stanek SST-CONSULT /Kommunalkredit Public Consulting Promoting Clean Urban Public Transport in Kazakhstan: Designing a Green Investment Programme 13 December 2016, Astana
- 2. • Assumptions used for modelling • Results of modelling for pilot cities • Use of the model beyond pilot phase Structure of the presentation
- 3. – average cost of new CNG bus*: KZT 35.315 million – average cost of new LPG bus*: KZT 32.104 million – average cost of new diesel bus**: KZT 30.708 million – average cost of old /used diesel bus*: KZT 10 million * 10-12m passenger bus ** EURO6 standard equivalent ** EURO2 standard equivalent Assumptions used for calculating costs of the programme
- 4. – a cost for construction of CNG filling station: KZT 544 million * – Average fuel consumption: * It is assumed that reaching each 100 buses the CNG station will be constructed by the provider of CNG ** LPG stations will be constructed by the private sector due to availability of LPG for private cars Assumptions used for calculating costs of the programme New CNG bus 53,7 m3/100 km New LPG bus 70 kg/100 km New Diesel EURO6 bus 50 l/100 km New Diesel standard bus 45 l/100 km Old diesel bus > 15 years 56 l/100 km Old diesel bus > 10 years 51 l/100 km Old diesel bus > 5 years 49 l/100 km
- 5. – cost of fuel - average prices in 2016 – Costs share was calculated taking into account the price difference between new (CNG/LPG/Diesel Euro5/6) bus and traditional old bus and cost savings due to lower costs of fuel – Calculated costs share: Assumptions used for calculating costs of the programme Grant (programme support) Own contribution CNG bus 48% 52% LPG bus 48% 52% Diesel bus 81% 19%
- 6. – Calculation of the environmental effect: difference between emissions from new and old diesel buses Assumptions used for calculating costs of the programme CO2 [kg/km] CO [g/km] NOx [g/km] PM 2.5 [g/km] SO2 [g/km] CNG bus 0.9350 0.2400 2.5000 0.0050 0.0000 LPG bus 1.0258 1.9200 5.0000 0.0050 0.0652 Diesel EURO6 bus 0.7632 0.2230 0.5970 0.0023 0.0205 New diesel bus (<5 years) 1.0812 2.4400 10.7000 0.2200 0.2050 Diesel bus (> 5 years) 1.1893 2.6840 11.7700 0.2420 0.2255 Diesel bus (> 10 years) 1.2974 2.9280 12.8400 0.2640 0.2460 Diesel bus (> 15 years) 1.4056 3.1720 13.9100 0.2860 0.2665
- 7. Results of modelling – pilot cities - Kostanay has 413 buses older than 15 years, practically all should be replaced due to their age and high level of pollution - for the pilot phase, it is assumed that 200 buses will be replaced to new LPG buses - Shymkent already replaced 200 buses with CNG and has further plans, however there are still 61 buses older than 15 years and 109 older than 10 years - for the pilot phase, it is assumed that 100 buses will be replaced with new CNG buses
- 8. Results of modelling – Kostanay - total costs of the pilot programme in Kostanay will be KZT 6 421 million, KZT 3 342 million from private sources and 3 079 million KZT from the programme - it is assumed that no price increase will be needed to implement the programme - reduction of pollution will be as follows: CO2 [t] CO [kg] NOx [kg] PM 2.5 [kg] SO2 [kg] Emission reduction per year 5 013 16 526 117 612 3 709 2 657
- 9. Results of modelling – Shymkent - total costs of the pilot programme in Shymkent will be KZT 3 531 million, KZT 1 826 million from private sources and KZT 1 705 million from the programme - it is assumed that no price increase will be needed to implement the programme - reduction of pollution will be as follows: CO2 [t] CO [kg] NOx [kg] PM 2.5 [kg] SO2 [kg] Emission reduction per year 2 827 18 723 72 552 1 798 1 706
- 10. Use of the model beyond pilot phase - the Excel model can be used to extend the programme to the whole country - it calculates the costs and emissions reduction; - user may define what costs wants to spend for the programme or what emissions reduction wants to achieve (only one emission reduction can be set as a target: CO2, CO, NOx, PM, SO2) - the model calculates other parameters for the programme: costs and reductions of other pollutants
- 11. Use of the model beyond pilot phase The used algorithm is as follows: - The model reviews the information on public transport for each city. The review is done in 4 iterations, starting from the oldest buses (>15 years) and then respectively >10 years, > 5 years and 0-5 years - First, it checks if the city has potential for CNG buses, if yes, it proposes the replacement of one old bus with a CNG bus
- 12. Use of the model beyond pilot phase - Then, the previous step is repeated until the target is reached or all old busses in a given iteration are replaced - If the city has no potential for CNG buses, the model does the same steps with LPG/modern diesel buses - The costs of new CNG stations are also taken into account. If the number of replaced buses is higher than 100, it is assumed that the CNG station is a commercial project and no subsidy is required