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Carbon Zero Institute
Prepared for June 13, 2013
Public Workshop for
The 2013 Update to
AB 32 Scoping Plan
Elton Sherwin
Executive Director
Carbon Zero Institute
esherwin@carbonzeroinstitute.org
www.carbonzeroassociation.org
Why Methane Matters
Carbon Zero Institute
Mission: Net Zero by Mid Century
Focus: Gigaton Projects
www.carbonzeroinstitute.org
Monitor Methane Worldwide
– All sources
– Sources are local, impact is global
• Ranching, mining, oil and gas, pipelines,
refining, landfills, homes and businesses
• Tundra, permafrost and ocean clathrates
10,000 years of CO2
Net Zero
Mid Century
IPCC Summary for Policymakers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf
Methane is Powerful
Warming Agent
100 Year GWP
More Potent than CO2
Lifetime
(years)
GWP
20-yr
GWP
100-yr
Carbon dioxide CO2 1 1
Methane CH4 12 72x 25x
Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289x 298x
HFC-23 CHF3 270 12,000x 14,800x
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-2-5.html
Twenty to 70+ times the global warming potential (GWP) of CO2
depending on timeframe
Methane Rising Again
Why?
p.p.b.v is parts per billion by volume
Chart cropped by NASA, full chart is available online:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-263
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120828.html
NASA and UC Irvine 1995 to 2011 Yellow line added
Need Better Monitoring
With a 12-year Life,
We Should Be Able to
Reduce Atmospheric
Methane
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/research/capegrim_graphs.html
http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2001/publications/theme-
reports/atmosphere/atmosphere02-16.html
Red lines added
Carbon Zero Institute
An Advocate for
Net zero emissions
Mid century
Stylized graph of CO2 levels over the past 10,000 years from ice cores and measurements at Mauna Loa
http://www.skepticalscience.com/are-humans-too-insignificant-to-affect-global-climate.html
Appendix
UC Irvine and NASA
p.p.b.v is parts per billion by volume Yellow line added
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-263
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120828.html
Differing Estimates of the
Impact of Black Carbon
Low
IPPC
Medium
Hansen & Sato
High
Jackson, UCB
Impact varies by location,
methodology and timeframe
Hansen J E , and Sato M PNAS 2001;98:14778-14783
©2001 by National Academy of Sciences
Hansen and Sato
Twenty year GWP
Chart from Addicted to Energy, research by Stacy Jackson, UC Berkeley
http://www.stacycjackson.com/images/Copenhagen_Conference_Handout_-_Mar_2009.pdf
Why Methane Matters: The Need for World-wide Monitoring of Methane
Recommendations from Stacy Jackson’s website associated with the prior chart (2009)

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Why Methane Matters: The Need for World-wide Monitoring of Methane

  • 1. Carbon Zero Institute Prepared for June 13, 2013 Public Workshop for The 2013 Update to AB 32 Scoping Plan Elton Sherwin Executive Director Carbon Zero Institute esherwin@carbonzeroinstitute.org www.carbonzeroassociation.org Why Methane Matters
  • 2. Carbon Zero Institute Mission: Net Zero by Mid Century Focus: Gigaton Projects www.carbonzeroinstitute.org Monitor Methane Worldwide – All sources – Sources are local, impact is global • Ranching, mining, oil and gas, pipelines, refining, landfills, homes and businesses • Tundra, permafrost and ocean clathrates 10,000 years of CO2 Net Zero Mid Century
  • 3. IPCC Summary for Policymakers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Methane is Powerful Warming Agent 100 Year GWP
  • 4. More Potent than CO2 Lifetime (years) GWP 20-yr GWP 100-yr Carbon dioxide CO2 1 1 Methane CH4 12 72x 25x Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289x 298x HFC-23 CHF3 270 12,000x 14,800x http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-2-5.html Twenty to 70+ times the global warming potential (GWP) of CO2 depending on timeframe
  • 5. Methane Rising Again Why? p.p.b.v is parts per billion by volume Chart cropped by NASA, full chart is available online: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-263 http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120828.html NASA and UC Irvine 1995 to 2011 Yellow line added
  • 6. Need Better Monitoring With a 12-year Life, We Should Be Able to Reduce Atmospheric Methane http://www.cmar.csiro.au/research/capegrim_graphs.html http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2001/publications/theme- reports/atmosphere/atmosphere02-16.html Red lines added
  • 7. Carbon Zero Institute An Advocate for Net zero emissions Mid century Stylized graph of CO2 levels over the past 10,000 years from ice cores and measurements at Mauna Loa http://www.skepticalscience.com/are-humans-too-insignificant-to-affect-global-climate.html
  • 8. Appendix UC Irvine and NASA p.p.b.v is parts per billion by volume Yellow line added http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-263 http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20120828.html
  • 9. Differing Estimates of the Impact of Black Carbon Low IPPC Medium Hansen & Sato High Jackson, UCB Impact varies by location, methodology and timeframe
  • 10. Hansen J E , and Sato M PNAS 2001;98:14778-14783 ©2001 by National Academy of Sciences Hansen and Sato
  • 11. Twenty year GWP Chart from Addicted to Energy, research by Stacy Jackson, UC Berkeley http://www.stacycjackson.com/images/Copenhagen_Conference_Handout_-_Mar_2009.pdf
  • 13. Recommendations from Stacy Jackson’s website associated with the prior chart (2009)