Simulation for Decision Support - BMT Technical Acquaint
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This document provides an overview of discrete event simulation (DES) and its benefits for decision support in defense applications. It discusses how DES can be used across a defense asset's lifecycle for requirements specification, concept development, tender evaluation, maintenance planning, and future demand analysis. The modeling process involves defining objectives, collecting and analyzing data, developing and verifying the model, analyzing simulation results, and providing recommendations. Examples of potential DES applications for defense include modeling future build programs and class transitions for manpower balancing.
Simulation for Decision Support - BMT Technical Acquaint
- 1. BMT Technical Acquaint - Simulation for Decision Support Aidan Depetro Modelling & Decision Support Lead November 2016 DES in Defence
- 2. • Simulation in Defence • Decision Support in Defence • DES Benefits • Defence Applications • Modelling Process • Project examples, demonstration and Q&A Overview
- 3. • Training / Synthetic Environments • Tactical / mission simulators • War gaming / virtual battle space Simulation in Defence • Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) • Finite Element Analysis (FEA)
- 4. • Context: − Options analysis / Business case development − Acquisition Support − Process Improvement/Optimisation • Objectives: − Defensible decisions − Value for money − Minimal risk • Methods: − Cost-benefit analysis − Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis − Spreadsheet based models − Simulation? Decision Support in Defence
- 5. • Significantly higher fidelity than traditional spreadsheet models: − More information, less approximation − Greater complexity scalability − Visual representation of system / process / results − Superior advice and insights • Comparable development effort to spreadsheet models • A multitude of options and variables can be trialled with minimal effort • Cost is linked directly with the process • Simulations can be viewed in fast or slow time, paused, replayed and reset Discrete Event Simulation vs Spreadsheets
- 6. In practice, simulation can provide decision support across the asset lifecycle: Defence Applications Requirements specification, concept development Tender evaluation, schedule/program planning Maintenance planning and optimisation, training and support facility specification Future demand/supply analysis
- 7. • Complex problems on the way: − Record spending in Defence and Navy − Concurrent complex platform acquisitions in the next 20 years − Unique and difficult program management and wider strategic challenges ahead • Industry and tools are capable: − Simulation software is becoming a more and more powerful tool − Growing application of simulation best practice to the Defence sector − Industry’s simulation capability in Australia is emerging Why now?
- 8. • Model development process: − Define requirements and customer objectives − Data collection and analysis − Model development − Verification & Validation − Simulation of options/scenarios − Results Analysis − Recommendations • Customer tool development − To enable customer to conduct their own simulations/what-if analysis Modelling Process Requirements Capture and Model Scope Definition Data Collection and Analysis Model Verification and Validation (V&V) / Testing Model Results Output and Reporting Model Architecture and Functional Development Rectification of errors/faults Master Data and Assumptions List (MDAL) Report, recommendations Options Analysis Ship specs Shore facility specs Channel, basin geometry Weather/tide data Operational data Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Other improvement options
- 9. • Key tenets of approach: − Consultative − Transparent and traceable • Data driven • Assumptions and limitations defined − Comprehensive, but comprehendible − Allows decision makers to own their decision Best Practice Approach
- 10. Concept Demonstrator: Future Build Programs
- 11. Concept Demonstrator: Class Transition / Manpower Balancing
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