Smart City Orchestration via Integrated Decision Analytics
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The document discusses the integration of advanced analytics in managing smart cities and promoting sustainability amid rising urbanization. It outlines the complexity of urban systems and the necessity for incorporating multi-stakeholder approaches in decision-making processes. Additionally, the text emphasizes the use of integrated analytics to optimize resources, enhance infrastructure, and address socio-economic challenges.
Smart City Orchestration via Integrated Decision Analytics
- 1. Palisade 2012 Risk Conference Smart City Orchestration via Integrated Decision Analytics DAY 1 15:00 Wed. April 18th 2012 – Waterloo Room, IoD, London Palisade EMEA 2012 Risk Conference PRESENTED BY Scott Mongeau MA, GD, MA, MBA SARK7 Phone +31-6-42-353-427 Email scott@sark7.com Web www.sark7.com TNT Explosion Group! Copyright disclaimer: All third-party figures herein are intended solely for not-for-profit educational use only: no broader usage rights are asserted.
- 2. A Play in Four Acts •Act I 1: Act Introducing characters a) Smart City b) Sustainability c) Complex systems • Technical infrastructure • Markets & behavioral economics •Act II Act 2: Complication… – Increasing complexity… – Narrow analytics causing chaos to reign supreme! •Act III Act 3: Action! – Demonstration via Palisade Decision Suite v6 beta •Act IV Act 4: Resolution – Principles of integrated analytics •Epilogue Epilogue – Organizational valorization Slide 1
- 3. Act I Cast of Characters A. Smart Cities B. Sustainability C. Complex systems TNT Explosion Group!
- 4. A. Motivation: Why ‘Smart Cities’? 2010 • ~50% (3.5 of 7B) living in urban areas* 2030 • Rapid urbanization in emerging nations • ~60% (5 of 8.3B) will be living in urban settings ~ • Dickensian byproducts – Environmental degradation – Slums / labor exploitation – Sewerage & water quality – Disease & pandemics 2050 • ~70% (7 of 10B) of globe in urban settings ~ • Urbanization – From rural to economic opportunity – Energy ladder • firewood, dung, diesel, batteries, grid – Food ladder • subsistence, staples, meat, processed, fast * United Nations Population Fund (www.unfpa.org) ~ UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Slide 3
- 5. A. Failed Cities •Biblical & ancient: political – Moral judgment • Babylon, Sodom & Gomorrah – Disaster - Atlantis (apocryphal) – Socio-economic implosion - Rome •Disaster: failed infrastructure http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v448/n7154/full/448647a.html – Flooding - New Orleans – Water management - Brisbane •Market collapse: macro-economic crisis – Economic - Detroit – Overgrowth – Calcutta, Delhi •Collapse: ecological collapse – Warfare & disease - Mayan & Aztek – Environmental change - Anasazi – Ecological collapse - Easter Island – Overexploitation – Greenland Norse •Dystopian – Blade Runner, 1984, Brave New World Slide 4
- 6. A. Techno-Utopianism •City on a Hill – ‘Kingdom of God’ – Social idealism – Enlightenment project – Architecture & morality •Science Fiction – Atlantis & Shangri-La – Technology as vehicle Slide 5
- 7. A.What’s in a Name? What do we mean by ‘Smart’? Gartner ‘Technology Hype Curve’ • Reality? • Marketing hype? – Technical convergence – Science fiction futurism – Cloud / ‘Internet of Things’ – Gartner ‘Hype Curve’ – Embedded sensor networks – ‘Greenwashing’ – Advanced analytics / Big Data – Tokenism – ‘Nudge’: socially aware design – Austerity measures – Developing implementations Slide 6
- 8. A. Smart Infrastructure Kowalczyk, R. Enabling Smart Infrastructure with Intelligent Agent Technologies. www.cetinia.urjc.es/en/node/382 Slide 7
- 9. A. IBM’s Smarter Planet Architecture Amini, L. 2010. The Role of Technology in the Transformation to Smarter Cities. IBM Corporation. Slide 8
- 10. A. Smart City Working Definitions Washburn, D., Sindhu, U., Balaouras, S., Dines, R. A., Hayes, N. M., & Nelson, L. E. (2010). Helping CIOs Understand “Smart City” Initiatives: Defining the Smart City, Its Drivers, and the Role of the CIO. Cambridge, MA: Forrester Research, Inc. Available at http://public.dhe.ibm.com/partnerworld/pub/smb/smarterplan et/forr_help_cios_und_smart_city_initiatives.pdf. Hall, R. E. (2000). The vision of a smart city. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Life Extension Technology Workshop (Paris, France, Sep 28). Available at http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/773961- oyxp82/webviewable/773961.pdf. Harrison, C., Eckman, B., Hamilton, R., Hartswick, P., Kalagnanam, J., Paraszczak, J., & Williams, P. (2010). Foundations for Smarter Cities. IBM Journal of Research and Development, 54(4). DOI: 10.1147/JRD.2010.2048257. Slide 9
- 11. Emerging Smart Systems Applications… Bleeding edge… • Military drone network orchestration • Military campaigns & provisioning • Intelligence & security networks • Cloud Computing infrastructure Active Smart City associated… •Smart Grids (electricity networks) • Water management (i.e. Dutch flood management) • Waste management (i.e. smart sewerage treatment) • Transport networks (i.e. train & highway optimization) • Oil & gas pipelines • Advanced supply chain management (i.e. Walmart) • Telecommunication networks Slide 10
- 12. B. What is ‘Sustainability’? • Austerity => conservationism populism? – Malthusian scenarios (millennialist in nature) – Regulatory distortions & ‘tragedy of the commons’… – ‘Greenwashing’ and tokenism? • Market profit maximization! – Multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria ‘satisficing’ of broad profit motives • ‘How to Measure Anything’ D. Hubbard www.howtomeasureanything.com • ‘Natural Capitalism‘ - P. Hawken, A. Lovins, L. Lovins www.natcap.org Slide 11 Staff, V. T. L. (2008). "Sustainability - The Solution Matrix." Retrieved December 3, 2011, 2011, from http://www.verifysustainability.com/Pie%20Diagram/PieDiagram_Open_Page.aspx.
- 13. B. Sustainable Supply Chains • Advanced technical supply chain management outpacing understanding of macro-systemic effects – + Commercial: WalMart, NetFlix, Amazon, Dell, Zara – - Resource: Enron, U.S. Housing Crisis, trading scandals Slide 12 Kleindorfer, P. R., K. Singhal, et al. (2005). "Sustainable Operations Management." Production and Operations Management 14(4): 10.
- 14. Smart City: Complex System Optimization •Multi-stakeholder •Multi-criteria utility optimization •Emergent hybrid technology solutions as mediator •Advanced analytics as facilitator Nam, T., Pardo, T. Conceptualizing Smart City with Dimensions of Technology, People, and Institutions. The Proceedings of the 12 th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research. Slide 13
- 15. Review: Smart Cities => Complex Analytics •Smart Systems: emergent hybrid technologies – networked infrastructure that… – uses sensors and communications technologies… – to better utilize or sustain resources via analytics… – addressing a broad notion of efficiency or optimality •Multi-Stakeholder: multi-criteria interests – each of whom evidence bounded rationality… – and autonomy in striving after incentives… – whom together result in a ‘market equilibrium’ •Complex systems: management * – Orchestration (not control) – Dynamic stability (not formal equilibrium) – Shifting ‘regimes’ of stability & volatility – Emergent behavior presages phase-changes * Otherwise less represented in ‘Smart City’ research Slide 14
- 16. Act 2 – Complication: Rise of Complex Systems • Complexity • Poverty of insight • Ourselves… TNT Explosion Group!
- 17. Collapse: J. Diamond •Factors 1. Key resource exhausted 2. Environmental/climate change 3. Relations with partner societies 4. Relations with hostile societies 5. Political, economic, cultural, socials factors •Why did they not see? – ‘Boiling frog’ syndrome – Conflict of interest: short-term interests of elites & long-term health of broader society – Factors are multiple: can not solve just one, need to address complexes – First & second order derivatives of function • i.e. not ‘wealth’, but functions •Once and future crisis – Dickensian conditions of industrial revolution Britain – Legacy of Liberal Industrial Capitalism – How to prevent the decent into great human & environmental costs? Slide 16
- 18. Decision Making Behavioral Biases • We are ‘boundedly rational’ – We suffer incomplete information • Information is ‘expensive’ • There is more & more of it (sorting costs) – Prone to particular cognitive ‘biases’ • Two decision making systems – System 1 • Fast & emotion/impression driven • Often priming us unconsciously • Often effective, but can mislead • Stories: “The bitter butler stole the money!” – System 2: • Slow & deliberate • Checks, but susceptible to System 1 biases • Fact assessing: “There has been a cash shortfall” 17
- 19. Smart City: Complex Techno-Economic Phenomenon •Cities are ‘complex’ systems (beyond ‘complicated’) – Evidence unpredictability / volatility – Long-term prediction difficult (i.e. weather & stock market) – Emergent behavior (unexplainable behavior via interactions) – Sensitive in periods of non-linearity (small effects = large perturbations) – Require redundancy, safe-guards, emergency procedures… – Border between discrete and continuous systems views •… connect to larger human behavioral systems – Supply / Demand decision making – Market trading / purchasing dynamics – Consumer behavior (i.e. commuters on transport network) •… aggregate probabilistic aspect – Requires intensive data analysis – Susceptible to trends analysis & forecasting – Multi-system analysis & optimization Slide 18
- 20. Smart City: Revised Definition Interface Integrated Design Analytics Markets & Governance Slide 19
- 21. Act 3 - Action! Enter Advanced Analytics • Integrated analysis • Sophisticated analytic tools TNT Explosion Group!
- 22. Palisade Decision Suite TOOLKIT… PALISADE DTS • Simulation • Sensitivity analysis •@Risk •StatTools • Optimization •PrecisionTree •Evolver • Correlation •NeuralTools •TopRank • Econometrics •RISKOptimizer • Decision Trees • Real Options EXAMPLE USES • Supply chain optimization: electricity • Market price uncertainty: heating oil • Cost control: staple foods • NPV: infrastructure projects (Olympics!) • Risk Management: flood protection • Optimization: transport networks • Commodity uncertainty: fuel supply Slide 21
- 23. Smart City Advanced Analytics • Analyzing & optimizing complex systems • Context of ‘sustainability’ – Technical: optimization of infrastructure – Economic: market structures / regulations – Behavioral: institutional & consumer decision making / games • Smart City Optimization – Technical operation of physical infrastructure • Optimization, investment decision making – Economic analysis • Market price optimization, optimal market design, regulatory design – Behavioral • Supply chain management (i.e. Bullwhip effect), consumer / citizen behavior (book: Nudge) Slide 22
- 24. Case 1: @Risk - Economic Behavioral Simulation • Hippo.xls • Included example in installation • Market competition simulation – Mrkt size – Usage per Hippo – Chance of competitor entering market • NPV distribution result Slide 23
- 25. Case 2: @Risk - Biofuel Technical Production • Mongeau, S. 2010. Cellulosic Bioethanol Plant Simulator: Managing Uncertainty in Complex Business Environments. 2010 Palisade EMEA Conference • US NREL research + U of Oklahoma – CEtOH calculator • Iterative development working with industry experts Slide 24
- 26. Case 2: @Risk Analysis • Dynamic NPV analysis • Probability distributions for all major variables • Multiple outcome simulations run (1000’s of times) • Aggregate probabilities and sensitivities emerge Slide 25
- 27. Case 2: TopRank & RiskOptimizer MONTE CARLO SIMULATION - Iterative development working with engineers / experts - US NREL research - - U. Oklahoma CEtOH model Slide 26
- 28. Case 2: PrecisionTree Decision Analysis 1. Add management decision points, investments required, and probabilities 2. NPV valuation of each node in scenarios (DCF) 3. Work backwards to probabilistic ‘inherent value’ of management option to expand/contract at each step 4. Choose for highest NPV value at each decision point 5. Revise as probabilities, decisions, and values as time progresses Slide 27
- 29. Case 2: @Risk & PrecisionTree Integration 1 2 Feedstock, 3 Ethanol & Oil Monte Carlo Price Analysis Simulation 4 ▪ Oil price scenarios Decision Investment Simulation ▪ Investment costs Tree ▪ Revenues (Ethanol & Analysis Byproduct, Carbon Credit) NPV & σ Revenue w/ ▪ Feedstock variable costs CEtOH Competition ▪ Energy costs, yeast & NPV Model Simulation processing costs ▪ R&D costs Costing Analysis ▪ License income ▪ Market competition Slide 28
- 30. Case 2: Integrated Techno Economic Behavioral Slide 29
- 31. Case 3: Carbon Credit Trading •Mandated sustainable credit market to offset global CO2 emissions •Market trading scheme •Secondary investment market •Can be modeled & analyzed in detail via Palisade tool suite to study market operation Slide 30
- 32. Case 4: Electricity SmartGrid •Complex infrastructure •Technical Economic Behavioral integration •Broker market design •Inclusion of Smart Metering & renewable grid re-sales factors Slide 31
- 33. Case 4: StatTools - Electricity Price Analysis Huisman, Ronald. Erasmus School of Economics “Measuring price risk in the short run” Huisman, Ronald. (2009) “An Introduction to Models for the Energy Markets”
- 34. Case 4: SmartGrid – Better Market Designs Needed •Enron as CASE STUDY – Perversion of regulatory scheme – Collusion, cartels & monopsonies – Perversion of regulators / public interest – Orchestrated blackouts, price hikes •Increasing uncertainty: complex grids – Smart Metering – Additional of renewable electricity re-sales onto grid (i.e.: wind, geothermal) Slide 33
- 35. Process: Optimizing Complex Systems 1. Framing (stakeholders) 2. Analysis – Management Science (OM, OR) ‘toolkit’ – Econometrics & statistics 3. Modeling – Integrated multi-systems models – Structured method (i.e. SysML) – Understanding of key dependencies – Attention to interfaces i.e. discrete to continuous 4. Verification & validation 5. Simulation – Multi-framework 6. Optimization 7. Iterative design 8. Valorization Slide 34
- 36. Act 4 – Resolution Integrated Analytics • Overview of integrated analytics TNT Explosion Group!
- 37. Integrated Analytics • Smart Cities? – Complex ‘systems of systems’ challenge – Multi-stakeholder market decision dynamics – Goal: ‘elegant’ policy & market architectures • Modeling & analytics – Sustainability: efficiency / satisficing – Multiple stakeholders – Semi-regulated markets Clemen, R., Reilly, T. 2004. – Combine technical, economic & behavioral analysis Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools Suite. – Integrated anlaytics – Need for organizational verification & validation – Valorization • Palisade – Excellent analytics suite: analysis, simulation & optimization • Advocacy – Beyond simple optimization – Need for deep complex systems analysis Slide 36
- 38. Decision Analytics Perspective •Integrated Techno-Economic Behavioral Analytics – Framing – Data analysis – Model building – Verification & validation – Simulation – Optimization – Organizational valorization •Integrated research foundations – Operations Management – Behavioral Operations – Behavioral Economics • Game Theory • Biases in decision making • Market Design •Complex systems diagnostics – Example: gene networks, metabolic disorders Slide 37
- 39. Guidelines for Complex Integrated Models • Assumptions –Far from innocuous! • Modeling process is crucial –Verification –Validation –Valorization • Goal is not forecasting! –Pan-systemic understanding –Emergence in complex systems –Orientation towards risks & opportunities Slide 38
- 40. Epilogue Organizational Adoption • Organizational valorization • Moral & ethical considerations • Appendix / references • Conclusion / questions? TNT Explosion Group!
- 41. Organizational Maturity Factors • Metrics – KPI – Balanced Scorecard – Six-Sigma • Processes – BPM – Decision Making – Design & interpretation of analytics • Maturity models – Business Intelligence (BI) – Knowledge Mgmt (KM) – Business Analytics (BA) – Decision-Making Slide 40
- 42. Moral & Ethical Considerations Sim City Example •Urban Policy student created mega-city… •‘Magnasanti’: 6m (micromanaged) inhabitants – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTJQTc-TqpU – http://www.vice.com/read/the-totalitarian-buddhist-who-beat-sim-city – Life expectancy: 50 yo – “There are a lot of other problems in the city hidden under the illusion of order and greatness--suffocating air pollution, high unemployment, no fire stations, schools, or hospitals, a regimented lifestyle--this is the price that these sims pay for living in the city with the highest population. It’s a sick and twisted goal to strive towards. The ironic thing about it is the sims in Magnasanti tolerate it. They don’t rebel, or cause revolutions and social chaos. No one considers challenging the system by physical means since a hyper-efficient police state keeps them in line. They have all been successfully dumbed down, sickened with poor health, enslaved and mind-controlled just enough to keep this system going for thousands of years. 50,000 years to be exact. They are all imprisoned in space and time.” Slide 41
- 43. APPENDIX TNT Explosion Group!
- 44. Interdisciplinary Research Perspective 1. Social & Management Science •Economics •Political Science •Urban Planning •Mgmt of Info Systems (MIS) •Organizational Management •Operations Management •Human Interaction Mgmt (HIM) •Decision Support Systems •Information Management (IM) •Computational Org Science 2. Mathematics & Computer Science •Operations Research •Computational Game Theory 3. Engineering •Multi-agent Simulation •Control Systems •Econometric Forecasting •Complex Systems Controllers •Network Theory •Smart Systems •Formal mathematics •Sensor Arrays •Decision Support Systems •Decision Support Systems Slide 43
- 45. Technical Perspective •Computer Science – Optimization of complex systems dynamics – Focus on algorithmic / mathematical equilibrium, efficiency, optimization, and/or ‘satisficing’ – Draws from formal mathematics, game theory, & economics (equilibrium) •Engineering – Formal machine control systems – Control of complex, non-linear systems: focus on automation – Draws from cybernetics, control theory, differential equations, non-linear dynamical equations (optimization) •Systems Theory – More probabilistic – Greater understanding of fuzzy logic, probabilistic challenges •Emerging methods – Network Theory, Multi-Agent Simulation, Complexity Management – Promising emerging methods – However, not explicitly oriented towards issues of Human Interaction Management (HIM) (organization-machine interfaces) Slide 44
- 46. Operations Management Perspective •Multi-layered, systems-of-systems analysis •Techno-Economic Behavioral analysis •Challenge: how to verify, validate & valorize? Slide 45
- 47. Organizational Perspective •Organizational perspectives – Change Management – Operations Management – Computational Organizational Science – Human Interaction Management (HIM) • Business Process Management • Six Sigma, Lean, etc. • Balanced Scorecards •Complexity management – Grappling at a conceptual level with applying multi-disciplinary understanding of complex systems (i.e. physics) to social complexity – Social Science just beginning to adopt suitable research methodologies to address notions of complexity in organizations • Multi-agent simulation • Network theory • Game theory • Complexity science (emergence, unpredictability, conflicting regimes, etc. Slide 46
- 48. Organizational Management Perspective Organizational Management Principles for Orchestrating Smart Systems •1) What are 'Smart Systems'? – What are core characteristics of Smart Systems? – What patterns exist in architecture of Smart Systems? – How have approaches to Smart System architectures evolved with technology & knowledge advancement? •2) What control & management challenges are presented by complex Smart Systems? – What methods for control and orchestration are emerging? – What role do advanced decision making principles / technologies play in orchestration? •3) Best practices in interfacing Smart Systems with complex organizations? – How have IT Architectures and Organizational Architectures co-evolved? • Knowledge based view of firm • Computational Organizational Science • Computational Agents as Organizational Agents (Agency, perverse incentives, heuristics) – What are best practices related to interfacing organizational decision making and smart system decision making? – Architecting 'The Edge': where are crucial orchestration points between organizational & smart systems? Slide 47
- 49. REFERENCES TNT Explosion Group! Slide 48
- 50. More Information… Springer Publisher • Complexity series – Complexity Science – Application in social science – Organizational studies • Control systems – Non-linear systems – ‘Smart Systems’ • Energy markets – Forecasting & control • Multi-Agent Systems • Operations Management • ‘Smart Supply Chains’? Slide 49
- 51. References: Palisade Suite • Murtha, J. (2008). Decisions involving uncertainty: an @RISK tutorial for the petroleum industry. Ithaca, New York, USA: Palisade Corporation. • Rees, M. 2008. Financial modelling in practice. Wiltshire, UK: Wiley. • Schuyler, J. 2001. Risk and decision analysis in projects. Pennsylvania, USA: Project Management Institute, Inc. • Winston, W. 2007. Decision making under uncertainty. Ithaca, New York, USA: Palisade Corporation. • Winston, W. 2008. Financial models using simulation and optimization. Ithaca, New York, USA: Palisade Corporation. • Winston, W. 2008. Financial models using simulation and optimization II. Ithaca, New York, USA: Palisade Corporation. Slide 50
- 52. References: Sustainability • Hawken, P., Lovins, A., and Lovins, L. H. (2008). Natural capitalism: creating the next industrial revolution. New York: Back Bay Books. • Johnson, M. W., and Suskewicz, J. (2009, November). How to jump-start the clean-tech economy. Harvard Business Review, November 2009. Last retrieved March 2011 from http://hbr.org/2009/11/how-to-jump-start-the-clean-tech-economy/ar/1 • Lovins, A. B., Lovins, L. H., and Hawken, P. (2007, July). A road map for natural capitalism. Harvard Business Review, July – August 2007. Last retrieved March 2011 from http://hbr.org/2007/07/a- road-map-for-natural-capitalism/ar/1 • Adams, W. M. (2006). The Future of Sustainability: Re-thinking Environment and Development in the Twenty-first Century. Report of the IUCN Renowned Thinkers Meeting, International Union for Conservation of Nature. • Brugge, R. v. d., J. Rotmans, et al. (2005). "The transition in Dutch water management." Regional Environmental change 5: 13. • Chouinard, Y., J. Ellison, et al. (2011). "The Big Idea: The Sustainable Economy." Harvard Business review 89(10): 11. • Chouinard, Y., J. Ellison, et al. (2011). "The Sustainable Economy." Harvard Business Review 89(10): 11. • Kleindorfer, P. R., K. Singhal, et al. (2005). "Sustainable Operations Management." Production and Operations Management 14(4): 10. • Lin, G. and K.-Y. Wang (2010). Sustainable Globally Integrated Enterprise (GIE). A Long View of Research and Practice in Operations Research and Management. M. S. Sodhi and C. S. Tang. New York, Springer. 148: 22. • Staff, V. T. L. (2008). "Sustainability - The Solution Matrix." Retrieved December 3, 2011, 2011, from http://www.verifysustainability.com/Pie%20Diagram/PieDiagram_Open_Page.aspx. • Todorov, V. I. and D. Marinova (2009). Models of Sustainability. World IMACS / MODSIM Congress. Cairns, Australia: 1. Slide 51
- 53. References: Decision Management • Blenko, M. W., Mankins, M. C., & Rogers, P. (2010, June). The decision-driven organization. Harvard Business Review, June 2010, p 54 – 62. • Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., and Raiffa, H. (1999). Smart Choices: A Practical guide to Making Better Decisions. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. • An, L. (2011). "Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models." Ecological Modelling. • An, L. (2011). "Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models." Ecological Modelling. • Barney, J. (1999). "How a Firm's Capabilities Affect Boundary Decisions." Sloan Management Review 40(3): 9. • Blenko, M. W., M. C. Mankins, et al. (2010). "The Decision-Driven Organization." Harvard Business Review. • Chouinard, Y., J. Ellison, et al. (2011). "The Big Idea: The Sustainable Economy." Harvard Business review 89(10): 11. • Grote, G. (2009). Management of Uncertainty: Theory and Applications in the Design of Systems and Organizations. London, Springer. • Monch, L., P. Lendermann, et al. (2011). "A survey of challenges in modelling and decision-making for discrete event logistics systems." Computers In Industry 62(6): 557- 567. • Zook, C. and J. Allen (2011). "The Great Repeatable Business Model." Harvard Business Review 89(10). Slide 52