Smart Grid Solutions( June 2012)
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The document discusses the adoption of smart grid solutions, defining smart grids as intelligent electrical grids that enhance quality, observability, controllability, and reliability. It outlines the transition towards smart grids, highlighting barriers such as technology challenges, lack of common standards, and economic factors, while also covering the importance of innovation in various technological areas like data management and energy storage. The document concludes with recommendations for advancing smart grid technologies and addressing critical infrastructure needs.
Smart Grid Solutions( June 2012)
- 1. Market Adoption of Smart Grid Solutions Berik Dossayev berik.dossayev@gmail.com Image source: G. Moore “Crossing the chasm” | 0
- 2. Agenda | 1 ①Smart Grid Definition ②Smart Grid as Critical Infrastructure ③Smart Grid as High Reliability Organisation ④Technology Adoption Rate/Methodology ⑤Discussion and Conclusions
- 3. ①Smart Grid Definition ②Smart Grid as Critical Infrastructure ③Smart Grid as High Reliability Organisation ④Technology Adoption Rate/Methodology ⑤Discussion and Conclusions | 2
- 4. Smart Grid Definition | 3 “SmartGridisasetofsolutionswhichaddintelligencetotheelectricalgridimprovingitsquality,observability,controllabilityandreliability”. Owndefinition.
- 5. Smart Grid Holistic Definition | 4 Source: World Economic Forum, Smart Grid investment report 2009
- 6. Transition to Smart Grid | 5 Source: World Economics Forum, EPRI, M.Jelinek and M.Ilic Important: proprietary standards open standards
- 7. Drivers Transition from commodity provider to higher–value service provider Operational and maintenance savings Fulfill carbon goals and regulations Accommodate renewables and EV Development of new products and services Improved understanding of consumer behavior Return on investment Energyandbillsavings Smarter energyusage Desiretobegreener Additional services Deregulation of power industry Carbon abatement scheme Push for open standards Jobs creation Innovation Government and Regulators Utilities Vendors Consumers | 6
- 8. Barriers Technology challenges Lack of common standards Skill crisis Return on investment Policy and regulations Technology challenges Resistance to proprietary standards Access to capital Skills crisis Global market differences Lack of knowledge Fear about cost increase Privacy issue Behavioral change Vested interests and influence of power industry Resistance to open standards from incumbent Complexity of regulation process Government and Regulators Utilities Vendors Consumers | 7
- 9. Smart Grid Patents with Graph | 8 Source: US patent office
- 10. ①Smart GridDefinition ②Smart GridasCritical Infrastructure ③Smart GridasHigh ReliabilityOrganization ④Technology Adoption Rate/Methodology ⑤Discussionand Conclusions | 9
- 11. Smart Grid as Critical Infrastucture | 10 Characteristics: • Very complex interdepencies • Change in one agent has an impact on whole system • Strict regulatory environment • Many stakeholders and interests Source: Steven M. Rinaldi, James P. Peerenboom, and Terrence K. Kelly, IEEE control systems magazine 2001 Electric grid is most important critical infrastructure
- 12. ①Smart GridDefinition ②Smart GridasCritical Infrastructure ③Smart GridasHigh ReliabilityOrganization ④Technology Adoption Rate/Methodology ⑤Discussionand Conclusions | 11
- 13. Power Industry now vs. Airline Industry before | 12 Similarities: •Strictly regulated environment •Vested interest •Zero tolerance to failure •Limited storage capacity •Few big players •Was based on guaranteed rate of return •High dependency on fossil fuels •High fixed cost base •Before 1978 US airlines industry almost came to bankruptcy •Deregulationsaved airline industry from bankruptcy brought competition, reduced prices and increased innovation Source: M.Jelinek, M. Ilic source image:local.wasp.uwa.edu.au, soil-net.com
- 14. ①Smart GridDefinition ②Smart GridasCritical Infrastructure ③Smart GridasHigh ReliabilityOrganization ④Technology Adoption Rate/Methodology ⑤Discussionand Conclusions | 13
- 15. Evaluation of Technology Adoption Rate | 14 >To calculate Technology adoption rate we multiple each criterion impact level to corresponding criterion influence. Sum of all criteria gives us Technology adoption rate. Method List Discuss Refine Select Criteria Selection •Literature inspiration •5 brainstorming sessions 2-3 people within Company •Expert interview •Frequent feedback within company and ETH network LikertScale: Criteria selection validation within Emerald •Scale 1 (Lowest)-10(Highest) •Industry experts •Academia Experts Evaluation of Criteria impact level •6 areas of technologies •Selected by Emerald Selection of investigated areas •+1 –accelerate adoption rate •-1 –slow down adoption rate •0 –no impact Evaluation of criteria influence
- 16. Technology Adoption Rate excel file | 15 • Assumption is that criteria impact level is SAME for all investigated technologies Influence on adoption rate is different for any combination of technology, customer and region
- 17. Segments selection From about 40technology segments in Smart Grid space 6where selected for evaluation Selection was based on •Capital intensity •Technology maturity •Relative importance of technology •Indicated by experts and industry partners Home automation Energy storage Cyber Security Data Management Substation Automation Advanced Metering Infrastructure Region: USA, California Customer: Utility | 16
- 18. Criteria Impact Level | 17
- 19. Technology adoption rate: Results | 18 Technology area Technology adoption rate Capital intensity Home automation 62.4 Low Cyber Security 70.5 Low Substation Automation 58.4 Low Energy storage -16.2 High Data Management 70.8 Low Advanced Metering Infrastructure 44.3 Low •Market size and market growth are very important measures but difficult to find reliable data. •Capital intensity allows easily to evaluate investment potential
- 20. Smart Grid Investment matrix | 19 Technology adoption rate Capital intensity High Low Low High Energy storage Data management Cyber security Home automation Advanced metering infrastructure Substation automation
- 21. Evaluation of the method | 20 + Covers important areas of technology adoption + Can be used for different industries + Takes into account different user habits and specifics of the market + Gives simple visual feedback + Can be used as check list to facilitate discussions -Input is subjective -Applicable to current situation only -Can take a lot of time -Complex interactions not taken into account -Score depends on clear common understanding of definitions Can be used as quick evaluation method Most useful to encourage right questions
- 22. Recommendations andConclusions: part1 InvestigatedeeperCyberSecurity •Iscompulsoryin US •Pushedbyregulators, underestimatedbyUtilities •Several big players, most others provide services and customerrelations Look forBlack Swan orsysteminnovationin storage •People reallywantstoragetohappen so theywill investanyway •Withproper incentivesgoodsolutionscancomefaster •Storage managementismoreinterestingatcurrentstate Home automationisgettingconsumer •Easiertotrack, interactandbuy •Smartphone asperfectremote •Technology issmarter •Potential forbigenergyandbillsavings •Smartphones, internetshapeapplications | 21
- 23. Recommendations andConclusionspart2 Data management is the biggest buzzword(Big Data) •Onlyfewvendorshaveexpertise •Core enginecouldbeopen source(Hadoop) •Privacy anddataownershiparebigissues •Most oftechnologyissoftwarebased •Data isnot usedin mostcases AMI will beeverywhere •Most widelyadoptedelementofsmart grid •Verycasespecificimplementation •GSM seemsasmostrobust solutionforcommunication •Enablerforsocial •Innovation will bein softwareandusage not hardware | 22
- 24. Backup Slides | 23
- 25. Smart Grid technologies | 24
- 26. Smart Grid Patents | 25 Appendix table 6-69Region/country/economy1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010World295289295312304277316305350305288384360385378528United States140153160178160158186174195172162226218248230303EU40364742695148635742474345505981France131093156891249285715Germany1171317191913202014141113202529Italy1112343348786424Netherlands0002201012010120Sweden5816722810171036755212United Kingdom8981181010106611075107All others21111444551146101115Japan93776559524354415242315340363366China0010002010111465Asia-8463965961310122220152024India0101001112123214South Korea2218436355314106149Taiwan23201221638667410All others0000100110001011All others18181925182019213338344036333050Central Asia and Europe1000010110000110Russia0000000000000110All others1000010110000000Middle East and North Africa1111010122563558Israel1111010122463556All others0000000000100002South and Central America0102000031110013Argentina0000000010000000Brazil0002000011000000Mexico0100000010110003All others0000000000000010Sub-Saharan Africa0100100000001011South Africa0000100000001010All others0100000000000001All others16151821171819192735283332272238Australia1112120135443023Canada7781011511131519121923211429Switzerland877828841079105564All others0032331104301202USPTO patents granted in smart grid technology, by region/country/economy: 1995–2010EU = European Union; USPTO = U.S. Patent and Trademark Office NOTES: Technologies classified by The Patent BoardTM. Patents fractionally allocated among regions/countries/economies based on proportion of residences of all named inventors. United States includes Puerto Rico. EU includes 27 member countries. China includes Hong Kong and Macau. Detail may not add to total because of rounding or minor discrepancies. See appendix table 6-62 for full list of countries by region. SOURCE: The Patent BoardTM, Proprietary Patent Database, special tabulations (2011). Science and Engineering Indicators 2012
- 27. New architecture for electrical grid | 26 Figure 3: Opportunities for Alternative Architectures for the Electrical Power Industry Arrangements Existing Power Grid Institutional Structure Regulations on Pollution, Recoverable Costs Technology Coal, Nuclear or Oil Fired, Centrally-Generated & Transmitted New Technology Set New Institutional Set Alternative Power Generating Some Architectures for Electric Energy in the Future: Opportunities exist to make strides in all areas affecting the electric power industry, as shown in Figures 3 and 4. On the technological dimension, serious R&D (into to the new types of energy sources, energy storage, technologies for cost effective customer choice) to support systematic understanding of the role of transmission providers offers potential. So, too, does the promise of flexibility in power delivery to Source: jelinek, ilic
- 28. Improtant events Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 •Smart Grid definition •Smart grid vision American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 •3.4 billion investment into smart grid technology TheFederal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC) •main regulatory body of power industry in USA TheNational Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST) •standards | 27
- 29. Inducement and blocking mechanisms of innovation | 28 Sourse: Anna Bergek, PhD thesis
- 30. Criteria Impact Level | 29 8.2 6.5 7.2 7.3 7 3.5 6 ExistingInfrastructure Scalability ofdistribution Referencecustomer incentives Regulations Networkexternalities Capital intensity Criteria impact level Market category
- 31. Criteria Impact Level | 30 6.3 7.8 8 6.6 6.7 Technologymaturity Reliability Benefit Never beforeseen functionality Interdependencyof technology Criteria impact level Product category 6.2 7.6 5.6 Behavioralchange Risk aversion Hype/Publcity/Prestige Criteria impact level People category
- 32. Very smart meters •Smart meter •Social app •Interaktive web portal For utilities •Cusotmer retention •Differentiation •Added value | 31
- 33. Energy efficiency Consumption feedback Psicology Game mechanics Customer engagement •Trying to enter area where utilities have least experianse •Experienced team with full support from ETH •Customers in Switzerland with expansion in EU | 32
- 34. Nest -not your average boring thermostat Learns over time that you don`t have to Remote control Easy to use Saves energy and money Innovation: thermostat as CONSUMER PRODUCT | 33
- 35. Adoptation of major technologies Source: Harvard Buseiness Review | 34