SMART Seminar Series: The Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems
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The Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) addresses the UK's infrastructure quality challenges, emphasizing the need for strategic investment and innovation to enhance competitiveness. The consortium aims to develop simulation models to inform national infrastructure planning, focusing on demand capacity balance, risk management, and societal impacts. Key research includes evaluating long-term infrastructure strategies and interdependencies across sectors to meet future economic and environmental goals.
SMART Seminar Series: The Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems
- 1. Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) www.itrc.org.uk The Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: The Emerging Evidence from Britain. John Preston. Civil, Maritime and Environmental Engineering and Science, University of Southampton. Presentation to SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, 2 July 2012.
- 2. Outline • Infrastructure in the UK • Background to the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) • ITRC Fast Track Analysis (FTA) and Progress • Transport FTA • Transport Capacity Demand and Assessment Model (CDAM) • Conclusions
- 3. Infrastructure in the UK Modest International Performance in terms of Infrastructure Quality •World Economic Forum 2011 28th (up from 33rd in 2010). •World Bank 2010 16th (down from 10th in 2007). Concern that this impacts on economic performance.
- 4. Infrastructure in the UK Concerns about under investment
- 5. Infrastructure in the UK
- 6. Infrastructure UK Performance may be increasing but so are costs.
- 7. ITRC Motivation “The stakes are high. Failure to develop and implement a vision for our infrastructure will mean the UK falls behinds its competitors, loses out both economically and socially, and could miss its carbon reduction targets” “The Government has identified £200 billion of public and private infrastructure planned over the next five years, and the requirement is likely to grow beyond that to provide the power, communications and transport links to underpin a modern, low carbon economy.” “Britain will not be able to compete in the modern world unless we improve our infrastructure.”
- 8. ITRC Aim and Ambition Aim: To develop and demonstrate a new generation of simulation models and tools to inform the analysis, planning and design of national infrastructure Ambition: Enabling a revolution in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK… whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.
- 9. Research questions • How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? • What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt National Infrastructure to make it more resilient? • How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? • What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? 9
- 11. Consortium Lead Universities Partnership • Cardiff University Over 40 partners in industry and • University of Leeds government: • University of Southampton • Contractors • Newcastle University • Engineering & multi-disciplinary • University of Oxford consultants • Engineering institutions • University of Sussex • Government departments, agencies • University of Cambridge & local authorities Support • Insurers • Engineering and Physical Science • NGOs Research Council Programme Grant £4.7 million (2011-2015). • Utility companies • University contributions £1 million On-going collaboration and • Industry contributions £1.6 million dissemination arrangements
- 12. Key Personnel • Jim Hall (Oxford) – PI and Leader WS2 • Nick Eyre (Oxford) – Leader WS1 • Seth Bullock (Southampton) – Leader WS3 • Stuart Barr (Newcastle) – Leader WS4 • Rob Nicholls (Southampton) – Leader WS5 • Nick Jenkins (Cardiff) – Energy • Chris Kilsby (Newcastle) – Water • William Powrie (Southampton) – Waste • Cliff Jones (Newcastle) – ICT • John Preston (Southampton) - Transport
- 13. International Collaborations • Gary Bowditch, University of Wollongong. • Theresa Brown, Sandia National Laboratories. • Yacov Haimes, University of Virginia. • Stephane Hallegate, World Bank. • Geoffrey Hewings, University of Illinois. • Margot Weijnen, TU Delft.
- 14. The ITRC Fast Track Analysis Objectives: 2.Ensure that the ITRC research programme is building upon existing knowledge. 3.Refine the scope of the ITRC research. 4.Pilot and communicate new analysis concepts. 5.Strengthen the relationship between the research team and the consortium’s partners in government and industry.
- 15. Overview of the FTA Methodology Figure 1 15
- 16. Developing Scenarios: Drivers of Change Scenarios Population HIGH Primary drivers of change growth •Demographic change •Energy prices LO W LO W •Economic growth Secondary drivers •Climate change HIG H •Carbon emission targets GH Economic •EU directives and National HI growth Energy standards costs •Others LOW Figure 2 16
- 17. Developing Scenarios Scenarios Low Growth •Population •GDP growth: 1.6% •Energy costs: DECC high* Medium growth •Population •GDP growth: 2.3% •Energy costs: DECC central* Figure 3 High Growth •Population •GDP growth: 3.0% •Energy costs: DECC low* assumptions of fossil fuel price * 17
- 18. Transition Strategies: Dimensions Strategies Capacity- High investment in new intensive capacity to keep up with demand and maintain good security of supply (except transport) Decentralisation Reorientation to more distributed systems involving a combination of supply and demand-side measures Capacity- Emphasis on demand constrained management measures, low infrastructure investment Figure 5 18
- 19. Progress: Systems modelling framework
- 20. Progress: Analysis of risks of infrastructure failure First steps: spatial integration of natural hazards and infrastructure exposure.
- 21. ITRC risk analysis framework NI network and NI risk extreme events NI vulnerability evaluation Resilience evaluation options Interdependent networks Economic loss 1 2 Interdependent 1 2 3 4 NI propagation NI 1 2 1 2 3 Output loss Interdependent 4 3 Cost 4 loss 4 3 Net Benefit Extreme climate hazard Performance Cost Event Time Economic loss Frequency Probability Load Service level Uncertain & temporal Resource Event Failure management Time 21
- 22. Progress: National Infrastructure Database ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC ITRC Admin Population Economics Water Energy Transport Waste ITRC spatial database comprises of 160+ layers organised into separate databases by sector but with single interface via ITRC scripts. ITRC Scripts
- 23. Transport FTA - Key Issues • Vehicle and fuel technology (EU legislation) and its impact on energy requirements • Taxation and charging (tax on electric vehicles?) • Infrastructure investment • ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) / speed limits • Personal / corporate behaviour • Main scenario drivers assumed: GDP, fuel price, population
- 24. Transport Modal Split and Vehicle Split Strategies Source: DECC, 2011. Also: http://www.toscaproject.org/tosca.html
- 25. Transport FTA Modelling - Methodology • Unconstrained demand based on elasticity models • Supply side constraints reduce demand (Excel, Matlab) • Three demand growth scenarios (low, medium, high) 8,000 7,000 road rail 6,000 air total Constrained billion passenger km 5,000 demand, 4,000 medium 3,000 growth 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2023 2038 2053 2068 2083 2098
- 26. FTA Vehicle Kms per Lane Km Capacity utilisation of trunk road network 25 Implies Million vehicle km per lane km 20 Constrained high growth Constrained medium growth base 15 provision of Constrained low growth 388 vehicles per 10 lane per hour 5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
- 27. FTA Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs)
- 28. Rail demand per track km 120 train km / track km (thousand kms / track km) high growth (constrained) Base year provision is medium growth (constrained) around 1.77 80 trains per hour low growth (constrained) per track km. 40 Crossrail HS2 HS2+ 0 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078
- 29. FTA Key Results • Low growth scenarios seem most consistent with previous trends. • Capacity Intensive: High investment and fast uptake of electric vehicles – 23.4% more car/van kms in 2050 compared to the reference case – 18.9% fewer emissions from cars and vans – 25.2% fewer emissions from HGVs • Decentralisation: Medium investment/medium uptake of EVs, national congestion charging – 5% more car/van vehicle kms – 10.7% lower CO2 emissions • Capacity constrained: Low investment, low uptake of EVs, national congestion charging – 3% fewer car/van kms – 7.3% lower CO2 emissions for car/vans – 2.4% lower CO2 emissions for HGVs
- 30. FTA Key Results
- 31. Transport CDAM: Initial Structure
- 32. Transport Models Gap Analysis Key areas identified: •Temporal scale – ITRC model extends to 2100 •Spatial scale – Transport CDAM zonal system coarser than NTM •Strategic interaction between passengers and freight •Strategic multimodal treatment of demand and capacity •Interaction with other economic sectors •Explicit integration of national gateway nodes
- 33. Transport Models Gap Analysis • Transport CDAM is intended to complement rather than compete with existing models. • Limited project resources and short(ish) timescale – use existing data wherever possible. • Spatial resolution at a level consistent with other ITRC CDAMs (Energy, Water, Solid Waste, Wastewater). Strategic modelling with a focus on flows within and between Local Authorities (144 zones).
- 34. Transport CDAM Current Status • Development of model based on open source data from range of sources: – DfT AADF data – DfT road statistics – ATOC rail timetable data – ORR station usage data – CAA air statistics – DfT maritime statistics
- 35. Transport CDAM: Current Status
- 36. Transport CDAM: Current Status • Standalone road model developed. • Models for air, rail and sea under development. • Aim is for an integrated multi-modal model that is capable of rapid simulations.
- 37. Transport CDAM: Current Status • Extensive data collection and processing undertaken • Initial road link model now working • Other model elements being developed • Three MSc students working on model
- 38. Transport CDAM: Added Value • Strategic analysis of scenarios, strategies and risks up to 2100. • Identification of key interdependencies both within the transport sector (local & long distance, passenger & freight, air, rail, road & sea) and between infrastructure sectors (especially energy and ICT). • Identification of key interdependencies with demographic and economic factors. • Identification of key pinch points.
- 39. Conclusions • UK faces an infrastructure challenge over the next century. • Current approach on a sector by sector basis. • A systematic multi-sectoral approach is needed. • This needs simulation tools that can treat infrastructure as a complex adaptive system (of systems). • ITRC aims to develop such tools for the UK, whilst building on international experience.