1

              Business Forecasting 2012
             Predictive Intelligence Summit
      Demand Planning & Forecasting
  Implementing Demand & S&OP Processes


                     Hyatt Regency McCormick Place
                                Chicago, IL
                           Friday, June 15, 2012

                                Discussion Facilitator
                                                Jim Biel
                                     Management Consultant

                                 E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com
                                      Phone: 847.687.5379

                             LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel
                            S&OP Writings: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel
Note: S&OP may also be known as IBF (Integrated Business Forecasting), SIOP
         (Sales, Inventory, & Operations Planning), and other names.



   Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
2
                                Professional Biography – Jim Biel
                                                Phone: 847.687.5379, Chicago, IL
                                                 E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com
                                          LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel
                                         SlideShare Profile: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel

•   Multi-Functional Experience, Concentrated in Consumer Product Goods (CPG) Industry
    (Sara Lee, Unilever, Chiquita, Pepsi) – Retail & B-to-B
•   Core understanding of multiple supply chains – frozen, fresh, cold, dry, liquid
•   Adept at integrating relevant business concepts and processes with enterprise-wide
    systems, a strong business process understanding and acumen including S&OP (boot
    strap and retrofit S&OP implementations).
     –    Demand Planning / S&OP Writings Available Here: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel

•   Experience in Business Forecasting, Sales Operations & Planning, S&OP, Sales Systems,
    ERP, CRM, Demand Planning, Business Information Management, Supply Chain, Trade
    Promotion Management, IT, HR, Training & Development, and Finance (Corporate FP&A &
    Public Accounting, CPA)

•   Independent Management Consulting for large and small entities
•   Client Services position with a SaaS (software as a service) provider of trade promotion
    software (Adesso Solutions)
•   Practiced public accounting as a CPA with McGladrey; Corporate Finance Financial
    Planning & Analysis (FP&A) Roles
•   Project Management Capabilities (PM Certification – Loyola, Chicago)
•   Network of Resources (Can bring additional experts to the table)

               Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (January 18, 2012)
3

                  Discussion Topics
               “An Interactive Discussion”
•   Survey Results
•   Your Implementation Questions / Concerns
•   Implementation Topics
•   My Thoughts / Overview
•   Q&A
•   One-on-One Discussions




       Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
4

       Implementation Topics
•   The Why / Rationale
•   Ownership / Sponsorship / Stakeholders
•   Education
•   Metrics
•   Assessment / Discovery
•   Project Planning
•   Change Management
•   Process Design
    – One Forecast
    – What IF’s / Scenarios
    – Unconstrained / Constrained Demand
•   Roles / Responsibilities
•   Tool Box / Systems
•   Execution / Implementation
•   Process Improvement
•   Business Performance Improvement



       Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
5


                          S&OP Defined
• APICS defines S&OP as the function of setting
  the overall level of manufacturing output
  (production plan) and other activities to best
  satisfy the current planned levels of sales (sales
  plan and/or forecasts), while meeting general
  business objectives of profitability, productivity,
  competitive customer lead times, etc., as
  expressed in the overall business plan.




       Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
6


        Implementation Steps
•   Ownership / Sponsor / Key Stakeholder
•   Education (at least 2 levels)
•   Metrics
•   Assessment / Discovery
•   Project Planning (Includes Change Management)
•   Process Design
•   Roles / Responsibilities
•   Data Management
•   Tools / IT Solutions
•   Execution / Implementation
•   Process Improvement
•   Business Performance Improvement
      Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
7



   Business Drivers / Pain Points
                                              The Why
• Implement Concepts & Tactics To:
    – Improve Demand Forecasting Accuracy
    – Reduce Supply Chain Volatility
    – Improve Working Capital (Inventory)
    – Improve Decision Making
    – Stabilize / Improve Customer Service Levels
• A Blend of Concept & Tactics
• The Recipe: Process, People, Performance (Metrics), Platform (Systems)


        Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
8


                        My Bias – S&OP
              (Sales & Operations Planning)

• My Preferred Business Model To:
  – Improve Forecast Accuracy
  – Reduce Supply Chain Volatility
  – Improve Customer Service Levels
  – Drive Decision Making
  – Stabilize/ Improve Customer Service Levels
  ► The Concept is Easy, Execution Can Be Challenging

  Note: S&OP may also be known as IBF (Integrated Business Forecasting),
      SIOP (Sales, Inventory, & Operations Planning), and other names.


      Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
9


    Top Business Benefits of Best-in-Class S&OP

•   Increasing revenue
•   Improving forecast accuracy
•   Improvements in the perfect order/ customer service
•   Better supply planning/scheduling adherence
•   Improving new product launch
•   Reduction of inventory

Source: “Demand Driven Sales and Operations Planning”, One Network Enterprises
        (Downloaded from CGT E-Mail, 8/22/11)




          Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
10


            Key Learnings / Observations
•   Key Learnings From My Experience
    – The Concept is Easy
    – The Initial Buy-In is Fairly Easy
    – The Change Management Required Can Be Hard
       • New Process (Includes Collaboration)
       • New Technologies / Systems
       • New Accountabilities / Roles
       • Traditional Functional Ownership Dies Hard – Silos
       • Transparency Hard For Some to Swallow
    – Consistency & Month-to-Month Execution is Hard
    – Leader Needs to Keep Functional Leads Feet to the Fire
    – May Need a Process Coach
    – Treat Implementation as a Project
    – S&OP Could / Should Be the Way You Run Your Business

        Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (January 18, 2012)
11

                                Best Practices
• One Common Set of Metrics
  (Performance) – Start with Baseline
• One Integrated Process (Process) – Rolling
  Forecasts
• All Demand Streams (Demand Supply)
• Integrate All Available Data (Internal & External) –
  Collaboration (Data Management is Key)
• One Forecast (Used by All Functions * )
• Incorporate “What-If” / Scenario Processes
• People/Functional Alignment (People)
• One System of Record (Platform)
   * With Some Caveats

         Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
12

                                         Metrics
– 5 Basic Metrics:
  •    Forecast Accuracy (Demand Owner)
  •    Perfect Orders (Cust Serv, Supply)
  •    Revenue (Units & Mix)
  •    Profitability (Mix, Margins, Costs)
  •    Inventory (Demand Owner + Supply Owner)
– Simple Scorecard
– Improvement From a Baseline
      –    More Holistic Metrics: Total Cost to Serve, etc.




  Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
13

Accountability Systems For Internal Stakeholders
     • Metrics – Common
         – 5 Basic Metrics:
                  •   Forecast Accuracy (Demand Owner)
                  •   Perfect Orders (Cust Serv, Supply)
                  •   Revenue (Units & Mix)
                  •   Profitability (Mix, Margins, Costs)
                  •   Inventory (Demand Owner + Supply Owner)
         – Simple Scorecard
         – Improvement From a Baseline
     • Active Involvement By All Functions –
         – Accountability & Roles / Responsibilities
                  • Daily
                  • Weekly
                  • Monthly (Decisions Made + Follow-Up Assigned)

     • Transparency Through Dynamic
       Communication Flow
       Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
14


                                         S&OP
• Process Alignment / Integration
      – (Demand-Supply-Finance-GM)
• “Connect the Knobs” for Leadership



                                             GM Owner

                                                Dem Pl


                                   Finance                      Supp Pl




 Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
15



     “Connecting the Knobs”
               (Why Integration is Important)

• “Before we had Executive S&OP in the
  Company, I Spent A Lot of Time Turning
  Knobs That Weren’t Connected To
  Anything”
   – VP & GM Quote From Tom Wallace’s Book,
       Sales & Operations Planning, The Executive’s Guide
        Page 24



      Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
16


                          The S&OP Flow
   Demand                                           Finance                                              GM
                                                   Generates                                 Controls Monthly
                                                   Proformas,                                     S&OP
                                                   Cost, Risk /
                                                  Ops Monthly;                                   + Results
                                                  As Needed In                               + Metrics Review
                                                     Interim                                  + Var to Bus Pl
                                                                                               + Future Frcst
                                                     Utilize Demand                           + Assumptions
    Supply                                          Outputs as Basis
                                                     For Forecasts,                          + Bulk of Meeting:
     Daily                                           Annual Plans,                            Gaps, Opps in
                                                    Strategic Plans,
    Weekly                                         Add Risks / Opps /                           Future Frcst
    Monthly                                           Other Lifts /
                                                    Discount Factors
   Balancing                                          As Needed




+ Create Business Rules (Between Demand/Supply)
+ Forecast Time Fence: Rolling 12-24-36 Months (“Rolling Forecasts”)
+ Functional Leads & Leader Participate in Monthly S&OP Review

   Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
17

                                      One Forecast
                        (Linkage – S&OP to Other Plans)
              Strategic                                                                                                     Use S&OP
Strategic                                  Demand                      Supply
              Target /                                                                        Financial                      As a Gut
  Plan                                       Plan                       Plan                                                  Check
               Intent

                                                                                                                             Use S&OP
Business        Annual                     Demand                      Supply                                                  As Key
                                                                                              Financial
  Plan           Plan                        Plan                       Plan                                                Input / Core,
                                                                                                                            Plus Risks/Ops


                                                                                                                             Use S&OP
 Latest      Interim                       Demand                      Supply                                                  As Key
                                                                                              Financial
Est / Frcst Forecasts                        Plan                       Plan                                                Input / Core,
                                                                                                                            Plus Risks/Ops


               Future                                                                                                     Future Execution
                                           Demand                      Supply                                            Forecast / Details,
 S&OP        Execution                                                                        Financial                   Active Risk / Ops
                                             Plan                       Plan
             / Forecast                                                                                                      Discussion



            S&OP Outputs Validate, Support Other Planning Processes
             Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
18

   Alignment Between Corporate Strategy and
             Operational Execution
Corporate Strategy                                   Business Plan                                                  S&OP

   Revenue Targets                                  Revenue Targets                                        Revenue Targets
       Margins                                          Margins                                                Margins
   Working Capital                                  Working Capital                                        Working Capital
    New Products                                     New Products                                           New Products
    New Markets                                      New Markets                                            New Markets
   New Customers                                    New Customers                                          New Customers
    New Channels                                     New Channels                                           New Channels
    Exit Strategies                                  Exit Strategies                                        Exit Strategies
  Capital Investment                               Capital Investment                                     Capital Investment


Strategic Intent 3-5 Yrs                          Annual Plan / Frcsts                                  Rolling 36 Mo Review


             Amount of Detail (Increases through various processes)

   > Working Backwards from S&OP, Provides Validation of Plan & Strategy
        > S&OP Focuses on Gap / Opportunity Assessment vs. Plan

          Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
19


               Cross Functional Alignment
  Functional Role                    Business Role                              S&OP Role                           Communication
General Manager                Strategic Direction                      Owns the Overall                        Owns Monthly S&OP
                                                                        Process – The Process                   Meeting; Consulted
                                                                        Owner                                   Daily/Weekly as
                                                                                                                Needed (Exception)
Demand                         Translates Strategy into                 Owns the Demand                         Daily, Weekly
 > Sales                       Demand Generation;                       Forecast; Accountable                   Interaction with Supply
 > Marketing                   Dem Planning Reports                     for Excess Inventory                    & Finance; Owns
                               to a Demand Leader;                      Generated by a                          Monthly Demand
                               Unconstrained Demand                     Forecast Miss                           Component of S&OP

Supply                         Fulfillment of                           Owns the Fulfillment of                 Daily, Weekly
 > Finished                    “Constrained Demand”,                    the” Constrained”                       Interaction with
 > Raw                         Least Cost                               Demand Forecast at                      Demand & Finance;
                                                                        Least Cost (Balancing                   Owns Monthly Supply
                                                                        with Demand Planning)                   Component of S&OP
Finance                        Economic Oversight /                     Counsel, Input, Risk                    Provides P&L
                               Counsel                                  Assessment, Pro-                        Proformas & Risk /
                                                                        Formas of Future                        Opportunity
                                                                        Forecasts                               Assessment


               Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
20

    Cross Functional Alignment / Effective
Communication – The S&OP Communication Flow

     Role                              Daily                                Weekly                                 Monthly
GM                                     Rarely                                  Rarely                              Owns the
                                                                                                                   Meeting

Demand                      Active w/ Supply Active w/ Supply                                                 Owns Demand
Planning                    Planning; Sales; Planning; Sales;                                                  Component
                               Marketing;       Marketing;
                               Customers        Customers
Supply Planning                     Active w/                               Active w/                          Owns Supply
                                    Demand                                  Demand                             Component
                                    Planning                                Planning
Finance                        Consulted As                            Consulted As                          Owns Financial
                                 Needed                                  Needed                               Component


           Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
21
Methodological Approach Measuring, Managing, Executing Strategies


Frequency                Activity                         Typical                          Finance                             GM
                                                       Interactions
Daily            Demand                              Dem Pl with                     When needed,                    If Needed, very
                 Planning:                           System &                        exception                       rare
                 + Dem Planners                      Sources;                        basis
                 + Sales                             Dem Pl w/
                 + Marketing                         Supply –
                 + Customers                         Balancing
                 + Synd Data                         Supply Metrics
Weekly           Demand                              Same as                         When needed,                    If Needed, very
                 Planning:                           Above                           exception                       rare
                 + Same as                                                           basis
                   Above
Monthly          + Demand Pre-                       Demand to                       P&L Proforma                    S&OP Meeting:
                 Meeting                             Supply; Supply                  with Gaps /                     Metrics

                 + Supply Pre-                       Back to                         Opps; Risks                     Best Frcst
                                                     Demand;                                                         Assumptions
                 Meeting                                                                                             New Products
                                                     Finance P&L w/
                 + Capacitization                    Risks / Opps                                                    Gaps / Opps
                                                                                                                     Strategic Issues

            Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
S&OP Time Fences                                                                 22



   Short-Term                                     Mid-Term                                          Long-Term

  (1-3 Months)                               (4-12 Months)                                      (13-36 Months)

Demand                                    Demand                                           Demand - Strategy
Dem Pl – SKUs                             Dem Pl – Prod Fam                                Dem Pl – Prod Fam
All Demand Streams                        All Demand Streams                               All Demand Streams
Sales                                     Marketing                                        Marketing
Customers                                 Customers                                        Customers
Promotions                                Promotions                                       Promotions
New Products                              New Products                                     New Products

Supply                                    Supply                                           Supply - Strategy
Fulfillment                               Fulfillment                                      Fulfillment & Sourcing
Cust Serv                                 Finished Gds, Raw                                Ingred Contracts
Finished Goods                            Supply Contracts                                 Plant/Cap Network/Invest
Supply Contracts



        Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
23


                    Process, Metrics, Results

         PROCESS                                                           PERFORMANCE METRICS
        Leadership                                                                Revenue, Cost Targets
       (Strategic Direction)                                                        Forecast Accuracy,
                                                                                 Working Capital Targets,
                                                                                     Inventory Targets
                                                                               New Product Launch Success
    Demand Feeds                                                                   Service Level Targets
  Supply; Balancing /                                                         Cycle Time / Quality - Processes
Capacitization / Shipment
 (Ops Execution, Future Forecast)



           Finance                                                                 DESIRED RESULTS
 ($ Scorekeeper, Forward Looking                                                  Positive P&L Outcomes
        Economic Advisor)                                                   Positive Working Capital Outcomes
                                                                                 Customer Service Levels
                                                                                Productivity Improvements
        Leadership                                                           Decision Making Improvements
     (S&OP Process Owner)



          Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
24


                Tool Box Needed to Execute

Systems of Record & Collaboration Tools
 - Spreadsheets
 - ERP System
  - Collaboration Tools
  - Purpose Built S&OP System Capability (i.e. SteelWedge)
  - Inventory Management System (i.e. SmartOps)
  - Metrics Scorecard Capability

Need a well thought-out and efficient S&OP Reporting Tool
to support Meetings and interactions
 > Numbers
 > Metrics Reporting
 > Assumptions


Make your analysts “analysts” – not data and report generators




 Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
S&OP                                                                   25


                                            (The Recipe / A Holistic View)
                                     Process, People, Performance, Platform
               • DP Starts the Process (Demand-Supply-Finance)
   Process /   • Business Intelligence / Collaboration Essential
   People
               • Defines Units, Revenue, Margin $ Can Be Derived
               • Ownership of Forecast: Demand Owner
               • Unconstrained Demand / Constrained Demand
               • One Forecast (Demand/Supply/Finance/GM Consensus)
Performance
               • Metric Driven: Forecast Accuracy (Level/Time Fence)
               • Metric Driven: Supply Fulfillment
               • Tool / System – Foundation For Demand Forecast
  Platform /
  Process      • Tool/ System – Rough Cut Capacity
               • Tool/ System – Detailed Supply Planning
               • How (Demand Management): Tools, Collaboration, and
   Summary       Assumptions Managed By Demand With a Defined Accuracy
                 Metric (Start With Baseline)
               • Debate the Assumptions Not the Number


                   Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
26


        Implementation Steps
•   Ownership / Sponsor / Key Stakeholder
•   Education (at least 2 levels)
•   Metrics
•   Assessment / Discovery
•   Project Planning (Includes Change Management)
•   Process Design
•   Roles / Responsibilities
•   Data Management
•   Tools / IT Solutions
•   Execution / Implementation
•   Process Improvement
•   Business Performance Improvement
      Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
27


                                     Resources
• A Book: Sales & Operations Planning,
  The Executive’s Guide, Thomas
  Wallace & Robert A. Stahl

• Expanded Library of Resources
  Available Here,
  – http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel/sampop-resource-guide-biel-04-19-11




        Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)

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S&OP Overview Implementation Approach Biel 06-15-12

  • 1. 1 Business Forecasting 2012 Predictive Intelligence Summit Demand Planning & Forecasting Implementing Demand & S&OP Processes Hyatt Regency McCormick Place Chicago, IL Friday, June 15, 2012 Discussion Facilitator Jim Biel Management Consultant E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com Phone: 847.687.5379 LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel S&OP Writings: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel Note: S&OP may also be known as IBF (Integrated Business Forecasting), SIOP (Sales, Inventory, & Operations Planning), and other names. Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 2. 2 Professional Biography – Jim Biel Phone: 847.687.5379, Chicago, IL E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel SlideShare Profile: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel • Multi-Functional Experience, Concentrated in Consumer Product Goods (CPG) Industry (Sara Lee, Unilever, Chiquita, Pepsi) – Retail & B-to-B • Core understanding of multiple supply chains – frozen, fresh, cold, dry, liquid • Adept at integrating relevant business concepts and processes with enterprise-wide systems, a strong business process understanding and acumen including S&OP (boot strap and retrofit S&OP implementations). – Demand Planning / S&OP Writings Available Here: http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel • Experience in Business Forecasting, Sales Operations & Planning, S&OP, Sales Systems, ERP, CRM, Demand Planning, Business Information Management, Supply Chain, Trade Promotion Management, IT, HR, Training & Development, and Finance (Corporate FP&A & Public Accounting, CPA) • Independent Management Consulting for large and small entities • Client Services position with a SaaS (software as a service) provider of trade promotion software (Adesso Solutions) • Practiced public accounting as a CPA with McGladrey; Corporate Finance Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A) Roles • Project Management Capabilities (PM Certification – Loyola, Chicago) • Network of Resources (Can bring additional experts to the table) Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (January 18, 2012)
  • 3. 3 Discussion Topics “An Interactive Discussion” • Survey Results • Your Implementation Questions / Concerns • Implementation Topics • My Thoughts / Overview • Q&A • One-on-One Discussions Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 4. 4 Implementation Topics • The Why / Rationale • Ownership / Sponsorship / Stakeholders • Education • Metrics • Assessment / Discovery • Project Planning • Change Management • Process Design – One Forecast – What IF’s / Scenarios – Unconstrained / Constrained Demand • Roles / Responsibilities • Tool Box / Systems • Execution / Implementation • Process Improvement • Business Performance Improvement Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 5. 5 S&OP Defined • APICS defines S&OP as the function of setting the overall level of manufacturing output (production plan) and other activities to best satisfy the current planned levels of sales (sales plan and/or forecasts), while meeting general business objectives of profitability, productivity, competitive customer lead times, etc., as expressed in the overall business plan. Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 6. 6 Implementation Steps • Ownership / Sponsor / Key Stakeholder • Education (at least 2 levels) • Metrics • Assessment / Discovery • Project Planning (Includes Change Management) • Process Design • Roles / Responsibilities • Data Management • Tools / IT Solutions • Execution / Implementation • Process Improvement • Business Performance Improvement Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 7. 7 Business Drivers / Pain Points The Why • Implement Concepts & Tactics To: – Improve Demand Forecasting Accuracy – Reduce Supply Chain Volatility – Improve Working Capital (Inventory) – Improve Decision Making – Stabilize / Improve Customer Service Levels • A Blend of Concept & Tactics • The Recipe: Process, People, Performance (Metrics), Platform (Systems) Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 8. 8 My Bias – S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) • My Preferred Business Model To: – Improve Forecast Accuracy – Reduce Supply Chain Volatility – Improve Customer Service Levels – Drive Decision Making – Stabilize/ Improve Customer Service Levels ► The Concept is Easy, Execution Can Be Challenging Note: S&OP may also be known as IBF (Integrated Business Forecasting), SIOP (Sales, Inventory, & Operations Planning), and other names. Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 9. 9 Top Business Benefits of Best-in-Class S&OP • Increasing revenue • Improving forecast accuracy • Improvements in the perfect order/ customer service • Better supply planning/scheduling adherence • Improving new product launch • Reduction of inventory Source: “Demand Driven Sales and Operations Planning”, One Network Enterprises (Downloaded from CGT E-Mail, 8/22/11) Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 10. 10 Key Learnings / Observations • Key Learnings From My Experience – The Concept is Easy – The Initial Buy-In is Fairly Easy – The Change Management Required Can Be Hard • New Process (Includes Collaboration) • New Technologies / Systems • New Accountabilities / Roles • Traditional Functional Ownership Dies Hard – Silos • Transparency Hard For Some to Swallow – Consistency & Month-to-Month Execution is Hard – Leader Needs to Keep Functional Leads Feet to the Fire – May Need a Process Coach – Treat Implementation as a Project – S&OP Could / Should Be the Way You Run Your Business Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (January 18, 2012)
  • 11. 11 Best Practices • One Common Set of Metrics (Performance) – Start with Baseline • One Integrated Process (Process) – Rolling Forecasts • All Demand Streams (Demand Supply) • Integrate All Available Data (Internal & External) – Collaboration (Data Management is Key) • One Forecast (Used by All Functions * ) • Incorporate “What-If” / Scenario Processes • People/Functional Alignment (People) • One System of Record (Platform) * With Some Caveats Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 12. 12 Metrics – 5 Basic Metrics: • Forecast Accuracy (Demand Owner) • Perfect Orders (Cust Serv, Supply) • Revenue (Units & Mix) • Profitability (Mix, Margins, Costs) • Inventory (Demand Owner + Supply Owner) – Simple Scorecard – Improvement From a Baseline – More Holistic Metrics: Total Cost to Serve, etc. Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 13. 13 Accountability Systems For Internal Stakeholders • Metrics – Common – 5 Basic Metrics: • Forecast Accuracy (Demand Owner) • Perfect Orders (Cust Serv, Supply) • Revenue (Units & Mix) • Profitability (Mix, Margins, Costs) • Inventory (Demand Owner + Supply Owner) – Simple Scorecard – Improvement From a Baseline • Active Involvement By All Functions – – Accountability & Roles / Responsibilities • Daily • Weekly • Monthly (Decisions Made + Follow-Up Assigned) • Transparency Through Dynamic Communication Flow Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 14. 14 S&OP • Process Alignment / Integration – (Demand-Supply-Finance-GM) • “Connect the Knobs” for Leadership GM Owner Dem Pl Finance Supp Pl Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 15. 15 “Connecting the Knobs” (Why Integration is Important) • “Before we had Executive S&OP in the Company, I Spent A Lot of Time Turning Knobs That Weren’t Connected To Anything” – VP & GM Quote From Tom Wallace’s Book, Sales & Operations Planning, The Executive’s Guide Page 24 Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 16. 16 The S&OP Flow Demand Finance GM Generates Controls Monthly Proformas, S&OP Cost, Risk / Ops Monthly; + Results As Needed In + Metrics Review Interim + Var to Bus Pl + Future Frcst Utilize Demand + Assumptions Supply Outputs as Basis For Forecasts, + Bulk of Meeting: Daily Annual Plans, Gaps, Opps in Strategic Plans, Weekly Add Risks / Opps / Future Frcst Monthly Other Lifts / Discount Factors Balancing As Needed + Create Business Rules (Between Demand/Supply) + Forecast Time Fence: Rolling 12-24-36 Months (“Rolling Forecasts”) + Functional Leads & Leader Participate in Monthly S&OP Review Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 17. 17 One Forecast (Linkage – S&OP to Other Plans) Strategic Use S&OP Strategic Demand Supply Target / Financial As a Gut Plan Plan Plan Check Intent Use S&OP Business Annual Demand Supply As Key Financial Plan Plan Plan Plan Input / Core, Plus Risks/Ops Use S&OP Latest Interim Demand Supply As Key Financial Est / Frcst Forecasts Plan Plan Input / Core, Plus Risks/Ops Future Future Execution Demand Supply Forecast / Details, S&OP Execution Financial Active Risk / Ops Plan Plan / Forecast Discussion S&OP Outputs Validate, Support Other Planning Processes Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 18. 18 Alignment Between Corporate Strategy and Operational Execution Corporate Strategy Business Plan S&OP Revenue Targets Revenue Targets Revenue Targets Margins Margins Margins Working Capital Working Capital Working Capital New Products New Products New Products New Markets New Markets New Markets New Customers New Customers New Customers New Channels New Channels New Channels Exit Strategies Exit Strategies Exit Strategies Capital Investment Capital Investment Capital Investment Strategic Intent 3-5 Yrs Annual Plan / Frcsts Rolling 36 Mo Review Amount of Detail (Increases through various processes) > Working Backwards from S&OP, Provides Validation of Plan & Strategy > S&OP Focuses on Gap / Opportunity Assessment vs. Plan Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 19. 19 Cross Functional Alignment Functional Role Business Role S&OP Role Communication General Manager Strategic Direction Owns the Overall Owns Monthly S&OP Process – The Process Meeting; Consulted Owner Daily/Weekly as Needed (Exception) Demand Translates Strategy into Owns the Demand Daily, Weekly > Sales Demand Generation; Forecast; Accountable Interaction with Supply > Marketing Dem Planning Reports for Excess Inventory & Finance; Owns to a Demand Leader; Generated by a Monthly Demand Unconstrained Demand Forecast Miss Component of S&OP Supply Fulfillment of Owns the Fulfillment of Daily, Weekly > Finished “Constrained Demand”, the” Constrained” Interaction with > Raw Least Cost Demand Forecast at Demand & Finance; Least Cost (Balancing Owns Monthly Supply with Demand Planning) Component of S&OP Finance Economic Oversight / Counsel, Input, Risk Provides P&L Counsel Assessment, Pro- Proformas & Risk / Formas of Future Opportunity Forecasts Assessment Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 20. 20 Cross Functional Alignment / Effective Communication – The S&OP Communication Flow Role Daily Weekly Monthly GM Rarely Rarely Owns the Meeting Demand Active w/ Supply Active w/ Supply Owns Demand Planning Planning; Sales; Planning; Sales; Component Marketing; Marketing; Customers Customers Supply Planning Active w/ Active w/ Owns Supply Demand Demand Component Planning Planning Finance Consulted As Consulted As Owns Financial Needed Needed Component Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 21. 21 Methodological Approach Measuring, Managing, Executing Strategies Frequency Activity Typical Finance GM Interactions Daily Demand Dem Pl with When needed, If Needed, very Planning: System & exception rare + Dem Planners Sources; basis + Sales Dem Pl w/ + Marketing Supply – + Customers Balancing + Synd Data Supply Metrics Weekly Demand Same as When needed, If Needed, very Planning: Above exception rare + Same as basis Above Monthly + Demand Pre- Demand to P&L Proforma S&OP Meeting: Meeting Supply; Supply with Gaps / Metrics + Supply Pre- Back to Opps; Risks Best Frcst Demand; Assumptions Meeting New Products Finance P&L w/ + Capacitization Risks / Opps Gaps / Opps Strategic Issues Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 22. S&OP Time Fences 22 Short-Term Mid-Term Long-Term (1-3 Months) (4-12 Months) (13-36 Months) Demand Demand Demand - Strategy Dem Pl – SKUs Dem Pl – Prod Fam Dem Pl – Prod Fam All Demand Streams All Demand Streams All Demand Streams Sales Marketing Marketing Customers Customers Customers Promotions Promotions Promotions New Products New Products New Products Supply Supply Supply - Strategy Fulfillment Fulfillment Fulfillment & Sourcing Cust Serv Finished Gds, Raw Ingred Contracts Finished Goods Supply Contracts Plant/Cap Network/Invest Supply Contracts Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 23. 23 Process, Metrics, Results PROCESS PERFORMANCE METRICS Leadership Revenue, Cost Targets (Strategic Direction) Forecast Accuracy, Working Capital Targets, Inventory Targets New Product Launch Success Demand Feeds Service Level Targets Supply; Balancing / Cycle Time / Quality - Processes Capacitization / Shipment (Ops Execution, Future Forecast) Finance DESIRED RESULTS ($ Scorekeeper, Forward Looking Positive P&L Outcomes Economic Advisor) Positive Working Capital Outcomes Customer Service Levels Productivity Improvements Leadership Decision Making Improvements (S&OP Process Owner) Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 24. 24 Tool Box Needed to Execute Systems of Record & Collaboration Tools - Spreadsheets - ERP System - Collaboration Tools - Purpose Built S&OP System Capability (i.e. SteelWedge) - Inventory Management System (i.e. SmartOps) - Metrics Scorecard Capability Need a well thought-out and efficient S&OP Reporting Tool to support Meetings and interactions > Numbers > Metrics Reporting > Assumptions Make your analysts “analysts” – not data and report generators Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 25. S&OP 25 (The Recipe / A Holistic View) Process, People, Performance, Platform • DP Starts the Process (Demand-Supply-Finance) Process / • Business Intelligence / Collaboration Essential People • Defines Units, Revenue, Margin $ Can Be Derived • Ownership of Forecast: Demand Owner • Unconstrained Demand / Constrained Demand • One Forecast (Demand/Supply/Finance/GM Consensus) Performance • Metric Driven: Forecast Accuracy (Level/Time Fence) • Metric Driven: Supply Fulfillment • Tool / System – Foundation For Demand Forecast Platform / Process • Tool/ System – Rough Cut Capacity • Tool/ System – Detailed Supply Planning • How (Demand Management): Tools, Collaboration, and Summary Assumptions Managed By Demand With a Defined Accuracy Metric (Start With Baseline) • Debate the Assumptions Not the Number Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 26. 26 Implementation Steps • Ownership / Sponsor / Key Stakeholder • Education (at least 2 levels) • Metrics • Assessment / Discovery • Project Planning (Includes Change Management) • Process Design • Roles / Responsibilities • Data Management • Tools / IT Solutions • Execution / Implementation • Process Improvement • Business Performance Improvement Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)
  • 27. 27 Resources • A Book: Sales & Operations Planning, The Executive’s Guide, Thomas Wallace & Robert A. Stahl • Expanded Library of Resources Available Here, – http://www.slideshare.net/jimbiel/sampop-resource-guide-biel-04-19-11 Jim Biel, Ph: 847.687.5379, E-Mail: bielconsulting@gmail.com, http://www.linkedin.com/in/jimbiel (June 15, 2012)