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S&OP: Getting The Most From Your Planning
Business Forecasting and Analytics Forum Boston, June 6, 2017
Anthony Reese
Typical S&OP Process
6/6/2017 2
Product
Review
Demand
Review Supply
Review
Financial
Review Business
Review
Executive
S&OP
Meeting
S&OP Critical Areas of Success
6/6/2017 3
Focus
• Bring the right discussions to the
forefront
Collaboration
• Bring the right people and process
together
Commitment
• Establish the right pace and cadence
1
Creating
Focus
6/6/2017 4
Create Focus Systematically
6/6/2017 5
•Reduce the conversations that need to happen
down to the critical items.
•Manage the conversations with a structured system
of discussion and action.
•Develop separate processes for the critical items
(and non-critical items)
Demand Segmentation is an
Analytical Tool to Build Focus
Low
High
High
Demand Variability
Q3 – A Items
(High Variability / High Gross
Sales)
“Collaborate!”
Q1 – A Items
(Low Variability / High Gross
Sales)
“Good for Statistical Tools!”
Q2 – B & C Items
(Low Variability / Low Gross
Sales)
“Good for Statistical Tools!”
Q4 – B & C Items
(High Variability / Low Gross
Sales)
“New Strategies!”
Business
Importance
6/6/2017 6
Demand Segmentation Approach
• Review all active finished good items
for:
• Historical monthly demand for the
last three years
• Gross sales by month for the same
period
• Establish Business Importance –
ABC Classification based on gross
sales over last 12 months
• Top 80% = “A item”
• Next 15% = “B” item
• Bottom 5% = “C” itemLow
High
HighDemand Variability
Q3 – A Items
(High Variability / High
Gross Sales)
“Collaborate!”
Q1 – A Items
(Low Variability / High
Gross Sales)
“Good for Statistical
Tools!”
Q2 – B & C Items
(Low Variability / Low
Gross Sales)
“Good for Statistical
Tools!”
Q4 – B & C Items
(High Variability / Low
Gross Sales)
“New Strategies!”
Business
Importance
Assign each item to a quadrant based on business importance
and demand variability
6/6/2017 7
Develop Quadrant Specific
Action Plans Example
Low
High
High
Demand Variability
Q3 – Market Intelligence
(High Variability / High Gross Sales)
1. Validate if any Q3 can move to Q1 or
Q4
• E.g., seasonal items that sell year
round with consistent demand
pattern may produce reasonable
statistical models
• E.g., Items that should be MTO
Q1 – Statistical Forecasting
(Low Variability / High Gross Sales)
1. Validate forecastability against new
statistical model parameters
2. Determine if any Q1 should move
to Q3.
• E.g., new demand patterns,
seasonality or trends
Q2 – Statistical Forecasting
(Low Variability / Low Gross Sales)
1. Validate forecastability against new
statistical model parameters
2. Determine if any Q2 should move
to Q4.
• E.g., SMU, OEM
Q4 – Alternative Strategies
(High Variability / Low Gross Sales)
1. Validate item type (e.g. SMU, OEM,
seasonal)
2. Determine whether statistical
forecasts or market intelligence will
be value added per item
3. Partner with Supply Chain on
Supply Strategy to recommend for
organization (e.g. MTO, ROP)
Business
Importance
6/6/2017 8
1
Collaboration
6/6/2017 9
A Working Definition
6/6/2017 10
Two or more functions (stakeholders)
working together and leveraging their
critical expertise to find
the best solution to a
shared goal.
Attributes of Collaboration:
• Clear Goals
• Close Cooperation
• A Structured System
Alignment Is Required Across The
Top of the Organization
6/6/2017 11
AlignmentSales Operations
Collaboration Happens Deeper in
the Organization…
6/6/2017 12
Alignment
Collaboration
Sales Operations
…and depends on having the
right people engaged
6/6/2017 13
Alignment
Collaboration
Sales Operations
Is Collaboration What you Need?
6/6/2017 14
• Collaboration is hard work
• If not done right can damage cross functional
relationships
• Collaboration needs to be supported by alignment
and happen deep in the organization
6/6/2017 15
How Important is it For Teams to
be Aligned within Your Company?
6/6/2017 16
How Important is it For Teams to
be Aligned within Your Company?
6/6/2017 17
• Teams identified as important to be aligned,
are often not aligned.
• The real or perceived gaps can be significant.
• Building cross functional alignment is an
improvement area for many organizations.
Poor Collaboration Reduces the
Effectiveness of Strategy
6/6/2017 18
56%
External partners
59%
Colleagues in other departments
Share who say they can rely all or
most of the time on:
Cross Functional Collaboration
84%
Their boss
84%
Their direct reports
Share of managers who say they can
rely all or most of the time on:
Functional Collaboration
Creating a Breakthrough
6/6/2017 19
To Make Collaboration Work
6/6/2017 20
• Clear shared goals (Alignment)
• Close cooperation of the right people at lower
levels of the organization
• A structured system of discussion, agreement and
actions to achieve results.
• Established ways to resolve conflict and achieve
results.
To Make Collaboration Work
6/6/2017 21
• Clear shared goals (Alignment)
• Close cooperation of the right people at lower
levels of the organization
• A structured system of discussion, agreement and
actions to achieve results.
• Established ways to resolve conflict and achieve
results.
There are Various Approaches to
Collaborating on a Forecast
6/6/2017 22
A forecast is produced with no feedbackWithout Feedback
Systematic collection of feedback is incorporated into a forecastWith Feedback
Several functions independently create forecasts and compare
them together and agree on the final forecastComparison
A forecast is created and passed to other stakeholders that adjust
the forecast and the final stakeholder produces the final forecastHand Off
A forecast is produced as a base and stakeholders add or subtract
to/from the baseWaterfall
The forecast is assembled through a combination of the above
approachesHybrid
It is agreed that no forecast is neededDon’t Forecast
3
Building
Commitment
6/6/2017 23
Three Key Areas to Understand
6/6/2017 24
Business Flow Calendar Context
Understand the Business Flow
6/6/2017 25
Develop a Calendar Example
6/6/2017 26
January April July October
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 29 30 31
30 30 31
February May August November
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 28 29 30 31 27 28 29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30
March June September December
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
June Example
6/6/2017 27
Establish the Context
6/6/2017 28
• Live or Email
• In Person or Remote
• One to One or Large Group
• Regularly or As needed
4
Bringing it
Together
6/6/2017 29
6/6/2017 30
From This
No Value to Plan,
Develop
Alternative
Strategies
Planned Using
Stat Forecast
Planned Using
Stat Forecast +
Collaboration
1(A, B)
1(C)
1(D)
2(A,B)
2(C)
2(D)
3(A,B)
3(C)
3(D)
Planning
Season #1
Planning
Season #2
Planning
Season #3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Example Seasonal Planning Map
6/6/2017 31
What Questions Do You Have?
6/6/2017 32
33
Thank You
6/6/2017

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S&OP Workshop

  • 1. S&OP: Getting The Most From Your Planning Business Forecasting and Analytics Forum Boston, June 6, 2017 Anthony Reese
  • 2. Typical S&OP Process 6/6/2017 2 Product Review Demand Review Supply Review Financial Review Business Review Executive S&OP Meeting
  • 3. S&OP Critical Areas of Success 6/6/2017 3 Focus • Bring the right discussions to the forefront Collaboration • Bring the right people and process together Commitment • Establish the right pace and cadence
  • 5. Create Focus Systematically 6/6/2017 5 •Reduce the conversations that need to happen down to the critical items. •Manage the conversations with a structured system of discussion and action. •Develop separate processes for the critical items (and non-critical items)
  • 6. Demand Segmentation is an Analytical Tool to Build Focus Low High High Demand Variability Q3 – A Items (High Variability / High Gross Sales) “Collaborate!” Q1 – A Items (Low Variability / High Gross Sales) “Good for Statistical Tools!” Q2 – B & C Items (Low Variability / Low Gross Sales) “Good for Statistical Tools!” Q4 – B & C Items (High Variability / Low Gross Sales) “New Strategies!” Business Importance 6/6/2017 6
  • 7. Demand Segmentation Approach • Review all active finished good items for: • Historical monthly demand for the last three years • Gross sales by month for the same period • Establish Business Importance – ABC Classification based on gross sales over last 12 months • Top 80% = “A item” • Next 15% = “B” item • Bottom 5% = “C” itemLow High HighDemand Variability Q3 – A Items (High Variability / High Gross Sales) “Collaborate!” Q1 – A Items (Low Variability / High Gross Sales) “Good for Statistical Tools!” Q2 – B & C Items (Low Variability / Low Gross Sales) “Good for Statistical Tools!” Q4 – B & C Items (High Variability / Low Gross Sales) “New Strategies!” Business Importance Assign each item to a quadrant based on business importance and demand variability 6/6/2017 7
  • 8. Develop Quadrant Specific Action Plans Example Low High High Demand Variability Q3 – Market Intelligence (High Variability / High Gross Sales) 1. Validate if any Q3 can move to Q1 or Q4 • E.g., seasonal items that sell year round with consistent demand pattern may produce reasonable statistical models • E.g., Items that should be MTO Q1 – Statistical Forecasting (Low Variability / High Gross Sales) 1. Validate forecastability against new statistical model parameters 2. Determine if any Q1 should move to Q3. • E.g., new demand patterns, seasonality or trends Q2 – Statistical Forecasting (Low Variability / Low Gross Sales) 1. Validate forecastability against new statistical model parameters 2. Determine if any Q2 should move to Q4. • E.g., SMU, OEM Q4 – Alternative Strategies (High Variability / Low Gross Sales) 1. Validate item type (e.g. SMU, OEM, seasonal) 2. Determine whether statistical forecasts or market intelligence will be value added per item 3. Partner with Supply Chain on Supply Strategy to recommend for organization (e.g. MTO, ROP) Business Importance 6/6/2017 8
  • 10. A Working Definition 6/6/2017 10 Two or more functions (stakeholders) working together and leveraging their critical expertise to find the best solution to a shared goal. Attributes of Collaboration: • Clear Goals • Close Cooperation • A Structured System
  • 11. Alignment Is Required Across The Top of the Organization 6/6/2017 11 AlignmentSales Operations
  • 12. Collaboration Happens Deeper in the Organization… 6/6/2017 12 Alignment Collaboration Sales Operations
  • 13. …and depends on having the right people engaged 6/6/2017 13 Alignment Collaboration Sales Operations
  • 14. Is Collaboration What you Need? 6/6/2017 14 • Collaboration is hard work • If not done right can damage cross functional relationships • Collaboration needs to be supported by alignment and happen deep in the organization
  • 16. How Important is it For Teams to be Aligned within Your Company? 6/6/2017 16
  • 17. How Important is it For Teams to be Aligned within Your Company? 6/6/2017 17 • Teams identified as important to be aligned, are often not aligned. • The real or perceived gaps can be significant. • Building cross functional alignment is an improvement area for many organizations.
  • 18. Poor Collaboration Reduces the Effectiveness of Strategy 6/6/2017 18 56% External partners 59% Colleagues in other departments Share who say they can rely all or most of the time on: Cross Functional Collaboration 84% Their boss 84% Their direct reports Share of managers who say they can rely all or most of the time on: Functional Collaboration
  • 20. To Make Collaboration Work 6/6/2017 20 • Clear shared goals (Alignment) • Close cooperation of the right people at lower levels of the organization • A structured system of discussion, agreement and actions to achieve results. • Established ways to resolve conflict and achieve results.
  • 21. To Make Collaboration Work 6/6/2017 21 • Clear shared goals (Alignment) • Close cooperation of the right people at lower levels of the organization • A structured system of discussion, agreement and actions to achieve results. • Established ways to resolve conflict and achieve results.
  • 22. There are Various Approaches to Collaborating on a Forecast 6/6/2017 22 A forecast is produced with no feedbackWithout Feedback Systematic collection of feedback is incorporated into a forecastWith Feedback Several functions independently create forecasts and compare them together and agree on the final forecastComparison A forecast is created and passed to other stakeholders that adjust the forecast and the final stakeholder produces the final forecastHand Off A forecast is produced as a base and stakeholders add or subtract to/from the baseWaterfall The forecast is assembled through a combination of the above approachesHybrid It is agreed that no forecast is neededDon’t Forecast
  • 24. Three Key Areas to Understand 6/6/2017 24 Business Flow Calendar Context
  • 25. Understand the Business Flow 6/6/2017 25
  • 26. Develop a Calendar Example 6/6/2017 26 January April July October S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 30 30 31 February May August November S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 31 27 28 29 30 31 26 27 28 29 30 March June September December S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
  • 28. Establish the Context 6/6/2017 28 • Live or Email • In Person or Remote • One to One or Large Group • Regularly or As needed
  • 31. No Value to Plan, Develop Alternative Strategies Planned Using Stat Forecast Planned Using Stat Forecast + Collaboration 1(A, B) 1(C) 1(D) 2(A,B) 2(C) 2(D) 3(A,B) 3(C) 3(D) Planning Season #1 Planning Season #2 Planning Season #3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Example Seasonal Planning Map 6/6/2017 31
  • 32. What Questions Do You Have? 6/6/2017 32