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A Summary of the Study
Politics and Society in North Africa and the Middle East
between Reform and Conflict.
Trends in Development up to the Year 2010
by Sigrid Faath, Hamburg, German Institute of Middle East Studies
2006, 116 p. (in German), ISBN 3891730926
The summary is available in German and English at
www.menavision2010.org/schlussprojekt.html

By September 11, 2001 at the latest, political, economic and social developments
in North Africa and the Middle East had become a major security issue for
countries in Europe. Foreign, security and developmental cooperation on a
political level since then has deliberately set out to contribute to stability and
development in the region in order to minimise the appeal of extremist and
terrorist groups, for example, and to create a peaceful neighbourly environment
that is free of threat for European states. As a consequence the research
programme “Menavision 2010”, which concludes with the study presented here,
has focussed on tendencies within the political development in North Africa and
the Middle East up to the year 2010 and their significance for Europe.
Any statement concerning “probable” political and social developments
should, if they don’t want to drift into the purely speculative, be based on
(1) existing state and societal structures and
(2) the dominant political and ideological orientation and cultural values
because these determine perception and action.
The question that needs to be asked is: Which orientations and values that
influence action and decision making within the governments and societies of
North Africa and the Middle East are most likely to determine events for longer
than the next five years and which orientations and values will assert themselves
and attain dominance? Any statement about future developments requires sound
knowledge of the present situation and its political and societal structures, norms
and powers.
These thoughts are reflected by the way the study is organised: the introductory
chapter provides an overview of the development of studies of the future in
Western, North African and Middle Eastern countries and deals with the general
problem of making statements about the future. Chapter II is dedicated to the
current conditions within the region and Chapter III looks at the current conflicts
and problem areas that, from a European scientific perspective, will characterise

Summary 2

developments within the individual countries of the region. The risks that can be
inferred for the states of the region, again from the perspective of European
scientists, will be assessed for their “influencability” by political leaders and
societies in the area up to the year 2010. In doing this the aspects of willingness to
act, capacity to act, and room to act have been given special attention. The key
question was: What prospects do necessary economic and social reforms and the
modernisation of the states and societies have? Who is blocking these reforms or
is refusing to pursue them? How are governments or state leaders and societies
behaving? How does the dominant behaviour pattern effect domestic political
development? Is it encouraging conflict, or is it threatening stability? What are the
possible transnational effects, risks or threats?
Chapter IV finally tackles the question of how Europe can influence those
developments within the region’s countries that are assessed as being “risks,” in
other words, that will have a transnational impact (on Europe), so as to prevent or
reduce the chance of those risks (negative effects, “damage”) actually occurring.
Risk is defined in the study as indirect, unintended and unknown danger that is
dependent on individual subjective feeling or perception. Within this context it is
expressly emphasised that the study presented here was conceived as a basis for
debate and aims to spark discussion. The assessments and valued judgements
found in Chapters III and IV are designed to provide more profound and
systematic dealings with the issues and their “future dimensions.” These
estimations are subjective and reflect the perception of the author.

Chapter II: The Situation in 2005
The research project “Menavision 2010” is based on social constructivist
assumptions: Political and social actors and their actions are seen in part as being
the product of their social background, whose traditions, values and attitudes
influence those actor’s perceptions and actions. In addition, it is accepted that
political and social actors are not only dependent variables, that is, they are not
merely the products of their social backgrounds but actively act to shape events
and effect the establishment of new contexts.
The individual projects of the whole research programme therefore not only
focussed on those structures within North African and Middle Eastern
governments and societies that most strongly moulded behaviour and actions but
looked also at the traditions and the current dominant values and attitudes. They
take into consideration measures carried out by governmental and societal actors
that have served to alter political and social contexts.

Summary 3

Chapter II presents the various thematically organised findings of the
individual projects. Specifically the following were analysed: (1) the adaptability
and willingness to reform of the governments and societies of the region; (2)
attitudes towards Western concepts (like democracy, gender equality); (3) the
ability to preserve political stability; (4) foreign policy cooperation and (5) the
attitude to external demands for reform. The current situation in 2005, which is,
with a few exceptions (Tunisia, Morocco, the smaller Golf States), characterised
in most of the countries by a real lack of willingness to reform and modernise and
an intensified debate about cultural identity, has been used to derive the most
important future developments.

Chapter III: Developmental Tendencies within Politics and Society
The key facts on which statements concerning future developments are based
provide analyses of those empirically grounded factors that have the potential to
trigger conflict. The same factors tend to effect the inner and external political
developments of countries across the regions: demography; urbanisation;
migration; economic development (economic growth); availability of resources
(shortage of resources); ecology; legitimacy of the state leadership, monopoly on
the use of force, the state’s capacity to exert control and assert itself; extremism
and extremist violence; proliferation of weapons, efforts to obtain weapons of
mass destruction and atomic weapons. The actual “set” of factors, in other words
the composition of factors or bundles of factors, that analysts have identified as
being the main causes or triggers for conflicts vary according to whether the
future prognoses focus on global development or deal with specific regions or
countries. If global, then the key factors are more general and crude in nature. In
the latter case, the prognoses are more finely attuned to the specifics of a country
or region and take into account (ideally) the respective characteristics, structural
conditions, and the dominant political and social traditions and norms. In relation
to North Africa and the Middle East the problem areas involve socio-economics
and domestic and foreign politics.

On a Socio-economic Level
Here, the social consequences of population growth, e.g. the rise in internal
migration and the asymmetric growth of cities, the high or increasing
unemployment rates and housing shortages, and ecological problems (e.g.
shortage of drinking water and agricultural land) are determinant and rife with
conflict potential.

Summary 4

On a Political Level
Countries are going to face four closely entwined internal problem and conflict
areas coming up to 2010:
(1) The problem to maintain the state’s ability to act effectively and, by doing
so, maintain the legitimacy of the country’s leadership. A majority of the
countries are effected by an “erosion” or “failure” of government because
the government’s capacity to provide social welfare and security, or indeed
its capacity to fulfil the welfare and security expectations of the population
has diminished completely or, at least, partly. The consequences are
negative for the relationship between the leadership and the citizens; the
legitimacy of governments is in question and their “support” is declining.
The inability of the state to act is allowing the Islamist opposition in
particular to press for mobilisation against the government. The state’s
precarious monopoly over the use of force in some of the region’s countries
is closely related to their incomplete nation-building process, which has
failed to overcome the ethnic, linguistic and religious heterogeneity by
means of officially accepting plurality.
(2) The conflict over political and social order. This crucial conflict is not
about the substitution of the authoritarian organisational model that
currently dominates all the countries in different ways, and which
characterises all levels of the political and social organisation, by a pluralist
democratic social organisation. Supporters of a democratic (liberal)
political model constitute a minority that has little real medium-term future
since its representatives are to be found on the social and political margins
and, as such, lack the power to mobilise. The main conflict over the
political and social order – partly latent and mostly rhetorical in nature,
although also partly violently pursued – involves promoters of a
fundamental religious (Islamist) concept for the state and society against
representatives of a comparatively secular concept. This secular concept
involves modernisation, usually step by step, of religion and society and,
above and beyond that, aims to enable society to adapt to international
developments and universal values despite the fact that attempts to secure
power bases and authoritarian behaviour patterns rather hinder, complicate
or counteract those plans. Such tests of strength can still be found in most
of the region’s countries. This “clarification of direction” will certainly
involve violence in the future even though the legal or “tolerated” Islamist
parties and organisations are currently publicly vowing their greater

Summary 5

willingness to compromise. The primary aim of this moderate attitude is to
secure the long-term freedom to act. In order to achieve this, legal or
tolerated Islamist organisations put their desire for the establishment of an
“Islamic state” and the enforcement of religious law on the back burner and
join the demands for political liberalisation and democratic political
structures. Parallel to that they stimulate the latent fears of the broad mass
of the population that foreign influence may erode their identity while
inciting anti-Western emotions; they present themselves as “defenders” of
that endangered identity. Their chief aim and main concern is still a state
based on religious law which in turn is employed to corset society in
“enforced harmony” and conformity – an anachronism given the reality in
the region’s countries, which are heading rather towards a de-
homogenisation in areas of identity, ethnicity (ethnicity and language) and
religion. This conflict is closely tied to conflicts with minorities.
(3) The problem of integrating young people. The general expectation that the
state will act as provider, an idea born out of paternalist structures,
continues to define, even for the younger generation, the “state’s duty” to
its citizens, this although the region’s governments are no longer able to
fulfil this task. Individual social dissatisfaction therefore usually soon
expresses itself in protest, mostly violent, and destruction of government
facilities (this was especially striking across the whole of Algeria in
2004/2005). The problem of the social integration of young adults within
society is closely related to the increase in drug consumption and the low
violence threshold (e.g. within families and against women).
(4) The conflict with terrorist groups. The activities of terrorist groups have
been stifled for the most part by comprehensive government security
measures. New attacks of varying intensity are still possible especially if
given external logistic support. In the Middle Eastern countries the internal
and external political aims and interests of the extremist and multinational
terrorist groups intermingle. The specific situation in the Palestinian
territories and in Iraq and Afghanistan, both occupied by foreign military
forces, continue to provide arguments for terrorist attacks against the
occupiers and against those countries that cooperate closely with the USA
(e.g. Jordan).

Summary 6

On a Foreign Policy or International Level
On an international level it is above all illegal migration, international terrorism
and the efforts to acquire atomic weapons as well as the conflicts concerning self-
determination and cultural identity that effect cooperation.
The conflicts concerning national self-determination and cultural identity have
consequences for relations with Europe or Western countries in general. Since the
Iraq War and the war against terrorism have prompted the USA to adopt a more
aggressive approach to influencing the political order in the Middle East, the
debate about the protection of religious and cultural identity has intensified.
Discussions concerning the defence against external “threat” occupy a lot of space
and particularistic positions and arguments are turning aggressively against
universal positions and arguments. There is a return to “old concepts;” domestic
reform is increasingly debated with reference to the “defence against external
influences”. The perception of a “foreign enemy” has proven to be counter-
productive for structural transformation. Nevertheless, it is important to mention
that there are clear differences in the assessment, interpretation and reaction of the
Maghreb states and the Middle Eastern states (including Egypt) to outside
influences. Those opposing external influence in Egypt and the Middle East are
the countries leaders and the religious conservatives and Islamist circles, whose
arguments are over-proportionally influential. In the Maghreb states the countries’
leaders insist on there being no outside interference in internal affairs and reject
imported political models yet they do not support Islamist isolationist thinking.

This problematic development and existing conflicts enable us to identify the
kinds of conflicts that can be expected or which will continue to characterise the
countries of the region if measures are not undertaken to defuse acute conflicts or
ease the situations leading to conflict.
Most socio-economic and internal political conflicts and problems require a
long-term strategy before they can begin to be minimised or resolved. Two
strategies deserve the highest priority:
(1) A strategy for structural reform which can improve the general economic
and developmental performance of the states in question and improve the
standing of their economies on the world market, thus leading to greater
domestic stability and legitimacy of each country’s leadership.
(2) A strategy for the reform (modernisation) of the idea of state and society
(e.g. including a modern interpretation of religion), in order (a) to be able
to adapt to international developments and (b) to free the heterogeneous

Summary 7

societies from the conflict generating cycle of enforced homogenisation to
which some governments and politically active groups cleave, especially,
but not only, Islamist groups.
Much greater consideration is given to the dominant sets of thought and belief
within the population in countries which have an active Islamist movement. Most
of these movements stand in opposition to the regimes. That means that any
attempt to modernise thought and religious ideas is either non-existent or
fragmentary. In this way the continuation of traditional thought is guaranteed.
Government measures to deal with economic, social, political or religious identity
problems and conflicts are time and situation dependent measures designed to
calm specific situations in which parts of the population protest or resist and
which threaten to boost the opposition, whether legal or illegal. In such situations
there is the risk that the protest movement could spread throughout the country.
The lack of consensus between a country’s leaders and the majority of its people
concerning the course of modernisation restricts the government’s ability to
initiate structural changes favouring the economy and society in general (Tunisia
is the exception here.). The willingness of a state to push for fundamental reform
is in direct proportion to the anticipated negative effects of individual reform
measures on the state’s retention of power and control.

Findings to be considered
Economic and social reforms on the whole are progressing slowly, stagnating or
are even regressing; a modernisation of government, economy and society in the
region as a whole is not to be expected by 2010, especially since the agitation of
opponents to such modernisation is spreading, state intervention in favour of
reform by and large has not happened and the ability of governments to push
through reform has declined, so that popular theories of the opposition have been
able to gain influence.
Factors slowing down the implementation of modernising reforms in the
economic and social sectors can be found among the functionaries of the state and
among the population at large. The socialisation of the younger generation to see
the state as a “distributor” of benefits and as a “provider” (e.g. as a provider of
jobs) or as a welfare institution contributes, along with inadequate training and a
lack of understanding of the quality and performance required by a modern
economy, to the slowness of economic reform and the inability of countries in this
region to compete on the world market.

Summary 8

The most vehement rejections are triggered by measures to modernise the
society in terms of customs, norms and religious traditions and with them social
structures governing relationships and forms of behaviour that have been declared
and explained as sacrosanct (e.g. equality of the sexes, recognition of plural
identities; religious freedom). In ethnic, linguistic and religiously heterogeneous
societies conflict potential is retained and handed down by means of this dominant
social stance. The rejection of pluralist structures is closely tied to the demand for
the “protection of cultural identity” or “cultural and religious identity” and the
prevention of chaos, anarchy or a schism within society. The demand that cultural
identity be defended is still gaining in popularity at the beginning of 2006.
Young adults in the Palestinian territories, Iraq and Afghanistan are also
growing up amidst an above average amount of daily violence and insecurity and
unemployment and poverty. They are confronted by the influence of Islamist
organisations (sometimes even clerics) who justify the use of violence. Several
other fears should not be underestimated. They all may be instrumental in the
consolidation of traditional thinking, the tendency towards religious and cultural
isolation and of the political assertion of Islamist ideology in the next years. This
will be true especially if no counter-strategy or medium-term economic and social
improvement can be achieved which could reinforce trust in the ability of the
government and increase loyalty to it. These fears include (1) existential angst
(e.g. the fear to loose one’s job or of not finding one, the fear of declining
standards of living and consumer potential), (2) “security” fears (e.g. fear of social
chaos, the breakdown of social cohesion), and (3) fears concerning the
globalisation process.

Given These Developmental Processes, Which Risks Will the States in the
Region face by 2010?
With the exception of the post-war countries of Iraq and Afghanistan it will not be
the internal political stability that will be endangered before 2010: mechanisms
that are already in place to protect states’ power bases are strong enough in the
medium-term and most systems’ structures are flexible enough to adapt, even if
the question of succession (especially in republics whose leaders have been ruling
for decades, for example in Egypt and Libya) may for a short period of time
trigger internal conflict.
The real internal political risk in all countries rather lies in the economic and
developmental failure of the countries’ leaderships and the failure of the states
and their societies to modernise, two developments that are closely connected.

Summary 9

Countries undertaking steps to reform their developmental policies and economies
may also fail if, owing to global or regional economic developments, enterprises
or investors do not consider them “attractive,” competitive, or secure enough. If
owing to slower, inhibited, or non-existent economic and social development
social divisions and unemployment continue to increase up to 2010 and acute
conflicts cannot be resolved, then in subsequent years countries where there has
been a boom in Islamist ideology (Egypt, Arab Peninsula, Palestinian
Autonomous Territories, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan) will see a further
increase in the influence of Islamists. This growth in the influence of Islamism is
also possible in countries, such as Morocco or Algeria, in which a depoliticisation
of the younger generation (those below 25) has become apparent, since it is
exactly this generation that is having huge problems to survive economically and
feels most disappointed in governments, which it makes responsible for their
plight.
Besides societal modernisation, the economic and social effort to reduce
poverty and create jobs so as to enable young adults to integrate into society is the
most important challenge facing governments coming up to 2010. If this
development fails then threats to inner security will be exacerbated by
(1) the likely spread of social conflict and their politicisation;
(2) a tense climate within countries in which the arguments and solutions
offered by extremist groups increasingly gain attention and support;
(3) the increase in crime as a “survival strategy” and as a way of securing
access to modern consumer goods.

It is to be expected that modernisation will not take place in a majority of the
states up to 2010 since neither significant steps in that direction have been
undertaken, or have been announced by the end of 2005. On the contrary, in those
countries where fundamentalist opposition has gained a strong foothold, the
governments can be expected to make further anti-modernisation concessions to
pacify the (Islamist) opposition. Thus, there will be a return to traditions that is
counterproductive for peaceful coexistence in heterogeneous societies and
counterproductive for the promotion of economic and durable social development.

Chapter IV: North Africa and the Middle East: Developmental Trends up to
2010 and the Risks for Europe
Depending on the pre-conditions conflict laden developments may prove risky for
political stability in the years up to and beyond 2010. Chapter IV examines

Summary 10

closely some of the likeliest developments that may take place in some of the
countries in North Africa and the Middle East and tries to assess their possible
(transnational) effects. The thoughts expressed concerning those developments
expected before 2010 and which will have an impact on subsequent years take
into account the pre-conditions and previous trends within government and
society. Some but not all of the developmental trends referred to in Chapter IV
potentially endanger Europe. Among the most dangerous of the developments are,
under specific circumstances, illegal migration and a potential decline in the
willingness of the region’s countries to cooperate.
The Risk of Illegal Migration. Illegal Migration is the consequence of several mis-
developments in North Africa and the Middle East and their fringes (especially
the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa):

(1) Illegal migration might escalate if development is not durable or if the
living standard does not rise by 2010 and beyond in North Africa and the
Middle East. Such an increase would reflect the declining prospects of
much of the population or would result from the failure to implement
reforms and the stagnation of modernisation.

(2) Migration from North Africa and the Middle East might gain in popularity
if the social and political influence of Islamist organisations and the
religiously conservative increases massively resulting in restrictions in
tolerance, pluralism, and an intensification of the pressure on minorities
and all those who do not want to bend to the Islamists norms.
(3) (Transit-)Migration might result from the continuing collapse of
government in the Sub-Saharan states, the further economic decline in
Sudan, or the precarious state of government in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is
possible that if North African states were faced with a massive influx of
illegal immigrants from Sub-Saharan states and they could not cope, they
would attempt to defer internal conflict by accelerating the immigrants
passing through to Europe instead of implementing costly and complicated
measures to prevent their crossing the frontiers into Europe in the first
place.

The Risk of a Decline in the Willingness to Cooperate. The second risk can be
found in the possibility of a general decline in the willingness of some North
African and Middle Eastern states to cooperate with Europe. This may result from
a lack of social or religious modernisation. There is a close connection between

Summary 11

such a decline in the willingness to cooperate and the increasing influence of
traditionalists and Islamists and a rise in the approval given to their worldview by
the population at large.
External cooperation in the removal of obstructions to economic and social
stagnation is very limited in its scope so the prospect that external support for
reforms may cushion the socio-economic causes of migration are only likely to
succeed in those countries whose willingness to reform or modernise is high (e.g.
currently Tunisia and Morocco) and where there are no counter-productive ant-
modernist social and religious policies in place. The limits of external influence
are also highlighted in discussions concerning political and cultural identity
conducted by powerful anti-Western activists: It is likely that these discussion will
serve to hinder cooperation in the long-term and exacerbate the migration problem
(for Europe) because of their anti-pluralist and anti-liberal concepts.
As a result, state leaderships in North Africa and the Middle East will differ in
their willingness to cooperate depending on whether genuine reform is on their
agendas or not or whether the anti-modernist lobby is able to mobilise support in
government and society at large. This will impede any European risk reduction
policies (on an EU and a bi-lateral level) designed to influence the economic and
pro-development reforms that may have a long-term effect on migration
behaviour and cooperation with European countries, for example, and reduce their
efficacy significantly.

What Do These Insights Mean for Political Cooperation with the States of
North Africa and the Middle East?
From a European point of view I think that because of the very different
development dynamics and reform measures in the individual states of the region
the most constructive approach to relations with the region will be to deal
individually with the countries there. This is especially so given that the
willingness to cooperate and the desire to deepen and expand cooperation varies
from state to state. The cultivation of an individual approach to cooperation and
the concentration on a few partners would seem to be most promising in terms of
the following:
(1) the already apparent developmental tendencies in the individual countries
leading up to 2010,

(2) the potential developmental trends after 2010,

(3) the problems and conflicts that have been defined as long-term and

Summary 12

(4) the limited means available to European states.

The principle of developmental poles – here the successful reform or mo-
dernisation pole – is not worn out, on the contrary, it needs to be extended by all
governmental and non-governmental institutions including, for example, the
German political party foundations. They should all expand and intensify
cooperation with those states that implement the most promising economic social
and modernisation measures and which are willing to undertake further steps.
Countries in which a consolidation of successful reform measures is apparent
could also help to remove the fears that other countries in the region feel towards
globalisation processes and counter the arguments of those promoting isolation
(and a return to traditions). However, the much needed external cooperation to
secure success of the reform and modernisation process does not belong to a
short-term agenda. Therefore it is very important to concentrate the means.
Constructive bilateral cooperation that in the interests of the European states
aims to promote stability and durable development in North Africa and the Middle
East has to concentrate on really cooperative states and to focus on economic,
social and societal reforms. There should be no attempt to interfere in the debate
about order and modernisation in the region’s states in such a way that
specifically encourages or enhances organisations and mind-sets which are trying
to obstruct reforms necessary for the long-term securing of social peace and the
stability of North African and Middle Eastern states, as social peace and stability
are essential for good cooperative relations.

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